Three steps to the Handicapping Hall of Shame

[rokitman]

STEP 1: Bet deep closers in the Kentucky Derby because the additional eighth of a mile HAS to favor the closers.

STEP 2: In the Preakness, bet the horse that was on the lead in the Derby, but was beaten, because the Preakness is 1/16 mile less.

STEP 3: Grandly take the rubber band off the bankroll, look smug, and say, Smarty Jones CANNOT lose the Belmont! Not after the way he one the Preakness so easily! Obviously, he's much the best! Then confidently parade to the window, throw it at the teller with both hands, then snuggle warmly into the masses who have bet Smarty down to 3/5, and receive your final humiliation.

[Buckeye]

If he wins the Preakness, he'll be much less than 3-5 in the Belmont, and he is not sure to lose. Thanks for the handicapping lesson.

[rokitman]

Originally posted by Buckeye
If he wins the Preakness, he'll be much less than 3-5 in the Belmont, and he is not sure to lose. Thanks for the handicapping lesson.

Looking forward to seeing your bust at the Hall.

[chickenhead]

I am curious in hindsight what everyone thinks about Smarty Jones, seems everyone including me thought this was a wide open race going in. After watching the derby, is there any doubt if they ran this race 10 times smarty would win say half or more?

Could he truly be poised for the pantheon of greats?

I haven't had a chance to watch the replay, so I don't know who got into any really unexpected trouble, but that was a thoroughly impressive race. He ate Lion Heart for lunch.

I would like them to run it again on a dry track, hopefully most show up for the Preakness.

[PaceAdvantage]

The problem with the Derby was the sloppy track. It probably did help/hurt a lot of the horses. Smarty has done nothing wrong, and is clearly at the top, and may be a lot better than the rest, but we'll need another race or two to find out for sure.

This has already been quite a year (and we've only finished APRIL) when it comes to horse racing. Imagine how much better it can get if Smarty sprouts wings???? LOL

[so.cal.fan]

Smarty Jones impressed me as a horse who has an iron will to be competitive....John Henry and a few other ones were like that.
He is a spirited horse, who wants to win......wants to pass other horses. These types defy all logic in regards to breeding and ability to go a distance.
He will bust his heart to win under any conditions. Tough little horse. Good luck to him and his connections.

PS
so. cal. fan......had a live double going to Cliff's Edge.......tough trip for a deep closer on that track yesterday, but that said....Smarty was the best yesterday.

[chickenhead]

I was glad to see it was him. My pocketbooks weren't thrilled, but it's hard not to root for a horse like this.

Two feel good stories in a row, he and Funny Cide. Maybe I will play the "feel good" angle next year.

This year I'm thinking it would have been Smarty, Imperialism (one eye, 21yr. old fem. trainer), and maybe Cliffs Edge for having Sellers aboard. Wouldn't have done too poorly, they finished 1,3,5 I think.

[headhawg]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Smarty Jones impressed me as a horse who has an iron will to be competitive....John Henry and a few other ones were like that.
He is a spirited horse, who wants to win......wants to pass other horses. These types defy all logic in regards to breeding and ability to go a distance.
He will bust his heart to win under any conditions. Tough little horse. Good luck to him and his connections.

I think that this is a pretty poor three year old crop. That being said, I agree with so.cal.fan -- wouldn't you rather bet a horse that likes to win?

Yes, it should have been wide-open race, but the sloppy track changed my thinking. To me, Handicapping Off Tracks 101 says early runners on the slop, closers on mud/drying-out tracks. Plus, deep closers are typically bad propositions -- I would think especially in 18 horse fields.

So while the Derby didn't produce the huge scores that have been predicted, the top two were logical choices for me.

Didn't have Imperialism, though, so I busted out on the tri.

[Tom]

SoCalFan...Both horse looked like they were looking for something at the top of the stretch-SJ was looking for the winner's circle, LH was lloking for a bench to sit down on.

[cj]

Originally posted by Tom
... LH was lloking for a bench to sit down on.

And yet strangely enough, noone else caught him. As I've said (for the first time ever I think,) very weak crop this year.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tom
SoCalFan...Both horse looked like they were looking for something at the top of the stretch-SJ was looking for the winner's circle, LH was lloking for a bench to sit down on.

Tom

I don't think he did bad at all. The official lengths are about 2.75 . I would say that Smarty did crush the rest of the field. But as everybody screams about what a great race Smarty had....LH was only 2.75 back. I was a little upset at M. Smith for having about 3 lengths on the field at 46 3/5 for the half. I think he could have slowed it down a little more. But what the hell do I know...............

[Bubbles]

I agree that the sloppy track threw things off considerably. Not only did it favor frontrunners, but the time (2:04) was very, VERY deceptive. That can be translated, by some handicappers, as a weak time, and they will then bet against Smarty. Then, twenty minutes later, they'll watch in disbelief as Smarty crushes their tickets.

[so.cal.fan]

I may be wrong (often am) however, this Smarty Jones seems different.....every once in a while a horse comes along with a mutant personality.......this animal is mean, stubborn...and very determined to beat other horses. I only knew one like him, John Henry, he would run as fast as he had to.....to beat you.
Many years ago there was a mare like this in New Orleans...Pan Zareta......she would run on any kind of track at any distance and run as fast as she had to to beat other horses.
SJ may not be a John Henry or a Pan Zareta, but then again....maybe he is.......
I didn't bet on him, and I'm sure I won't be betting on him in the next race/races.....however.....I won't be betting against him either until I see him lose.
Oh yeah, there is an old MULE who has this trait......Black Ruby.....anyone from California knows this old gal.

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
...Pan Zareta...

Horse was around in the very early part of the century. Big-time sprinter, the Xtra Heat of her day. I remember reading she was buried somewhere on the Fair Grounds property, could be wrong about that.

[freeneasy]

hands down this horse was the best horse in all his prior races, hands away this horse was the best horse going into the kentucky derby and coming out of the kentucky derby and hands down and away this horse is going to be the best horse going into the preakness.
what in the world does this horse do thats just so unconvincing? and dont even tell me that if you bet against this horse how you bet against him with all confidence cause if you did bet against him i'll bet that deep down in your little pea pick'n handicapp'n heart that you knew he was the horse to beat. c'mon.

[so.cal.fan]

Pan Zareta started 151 times and had 76 wins 31 seconds and 21 thirds......she was a sprinter, but actually set a track record at Oaklawn Park for a mile.
She is buried in the infield at the New Orleans Fair Grounds and they have a memorial tribute to her around Thanksgiving every year.

[tcat]

Did that Quinn guy really say Smarty Jones couldn't win?

[so.cal.fan]

Yep, he did.
In Horseplayer magazine......his reasoning.....the final 1/16 of the Arkansas Derby revealed (to Quinn) that Smarty was getting leg weary at the finish......he went on to say Lion Heart could win the Derby.....and Smarty Jones could not.
Again, he and a lot of other "experts" failed to take into account the "Pan Zareta" factor......Smarty Jones has a very unusual will to WIN.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by freeneasy
hands down this horse was the best horse in all his prior races, hands away this horse was the best horse going into the kentucky derby and coming out of the kentucky derby and hands down and away this horse is going to be the best horse going into the preakness.
what in the world does this horse do thats just so unconvincing? and dont even tell me that if you bet against this horse how you bet against him with all confidence cause if you did bet against him i'll bet that deep down in your little pea pick'n handicapp'n heart that you knew he was the horse to beat. c'mon.


I knew he was the horse to beat, but I went against him anyway. You don't make money in the long run betting a 4-1 shot in a wide open 18 horse field. This is just one race among many during the course of the year.

Betting on the horse that has a decent chance AND is giving you some juicy odds is how you make money in this game. A Volponi and a Cajun Beat more than makes up for the missed Smarty Jones' of this world....

[freeneasy]

that its just everyday you see the 2 favorites paying $65 in an exacta, again albeit like you said pa, in an 18 horse field a $65 payoff the 2 favs might not suggest value but why fight it.:D

[Fastracehorse]

If Lion Heart runs again, Smarty' will be compromised - not to say he still can't win.

fffastt

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
I knew he was the horse to beat, but I went against him anyway. You don't make money in the long run betting a 4-1 shot in a wide open 18 horse field. This is just one race among many during the course of the year.

Betting on the horse that has a decent chance AND is giving you some juicy odds is how you make money in this game. A Volponi and a Cajun Beat more than makes up for the missed Smarty Jones' of this world....

Absolutely right on! I had to explain this to a buddy after the Derby. I didn't play the exacta even though before the race I told him it was probably the smartest play (15 and 3) After the race he wanted to know why I didn't play it ......... I had to explain that you don't play the KY Derby trying to be part of a 60 dollar exacta. You put your bankroll for that one race where you might score huge.............triple crown and Breeders cup pools only come four times a year.........I have tasted a nice score in a Triple Crown race before (15k) and I want another one........hell I want one every year!

[cj]

Ralph,

I remember you nailed the Preakness Super with War Emblem (or should I say Magic Weisner :) ) for a very nice score. How are you going to bet Pimlico this year?

[rokitman]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
I knew he was the horse to beat, but I went against him anyway. You don't make money in the long run betting a 4-1 shot in a wide open 18 horse field. This is just one race among many during the course of the year.

Betting on the horse that has a decent chance AND is giving you some juicy odds is how you make money in this game. A Volponi and a Cajun Beat more than makes up for the missed Smarty Jones' of this world....

The favorite was a terrible proposition as a win bet but look at the pick 3: win parlay $384 P3 $1470

The good news is I had it. The bad news is that I had intended to play the pick 4 also but because of the track conditions, particularly the grass, I did not play it. But before I decided not to play it, I had picked 2 horses for the first leg-the 2 and the 6. The 2 won and paid $40.60. The pick 4 paid $38,594. Just made myself nauseous writing that.

[Valuist]

About the only conclusion I can draw from the race is that Smarty Jones can rate and he is a better horse than Lion Heart. But because of the track conditions, I can't say we can write off some of the off the pace contenders going into the race. The newbies may think that win you win the Derby, its automatic you win the Preakness because that's been the way in recent years. But there could be a Gate Dancer, a Tanks Prospect, a Hansel, a Pine Bluff that was far back in the Derby field this year that comes back and wins.

[cj]

The difference I see this year is that none of the other horses in the Derby have the prior credentials to beat Smarty Jones. All of the horses you mention had the back races that putting a line through the Derby made them look like strong contenders. I don't see any of those horses this year. Put a line through the Derby, you still don't see much. I'll be shocked if the winner isn't Smarty, Lion, or Rock Hard Ten. The rest just don't look fast enough, nor have they ever.

[Valuist]

How about The Cliffs Edge? His Blue Grass number was better than what Smarty got in the Derby and he didn't have the easiest of trips on Saturday.

[cj]

I didn't mention him because he's not pointing to the Preakness from what I hear.

[Valuist]

In that case we may have to start looking for some bombs to run 2nd or 3rd. If Lion Heart couldn't hold off Smarty in those conditions on Saturday, I don't see him doing it in Balt, even w/110 yards less this time. We have to find this year's Midway Road.

[Fastracehorse]

But he could get him beat.

fffastt

[ceejay]

I would be looking at Read The Footnotes if he enters the Preakness. I think that he needed the derby as conditioning from the long layoff.

[cj]

I posted earlier, or maybe on my site, that I think that big GP race will probably be it for him. It was too much too soon, especially off the layoff. I hope I am wrong, but Second of June already displayed the effects of such a race.

I really hope I'm wrong, this is quite a talented horse. I've just seen many times where horse run huge at an early age, especially in a dogfight of a race, and NEVER recovers.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I posted earlier, or maybe on my site, that I think that big GP race will probably be it for him. It was too much too soon, especially off the layoff. I hope I am wrong, but Second of June already displayed the effects of such a race.

I really hope I'm wrong, this is quite a talented horse. I've just seen many times where horse run huge at an early age, especially in a dogfight of a race, and NEVER recovers.

Time will tell. He might not get the chance at Pimlico. http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=22259 reproted that he came back with "crude in his lungs." How crude (oil?) would get in his lungs is beyond me......

[cj]

If you don't know how oil could get there, nobody will!

[ceejay]

But if I could figure out how, at
13-year high prices (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=530&ncid=530&e=10&u=/ap/20040504/ap_on_bi_ge/commodities) we might make more money with some of those cheap claimers than on the track.

[Steve 'StatMan']

"crude in his lungs." Maybe they meant "crud" but it didn't pass the spell-check program. My dictionarly doesn't list the word 'crud', yet most of us understand what people are refering to.

[rokitman]

Whoever shod The Cliff's Edge deserves a good, old-fashioned, Mel Gibson-style scourging!

[Bubbles]

I was impressed with Limehouse. Broke from the rail (actually the 3 hole with the scratches), which many think is death. People thought he couldn't be a factor, but he ran an okay fourth. You may see him win a few shorter-distance races later this year (The King's Bishop, Jerome, etc.).