$100,000 Guaranteed Late Daily Double - Santa Anita Park

[DeltaLover]

A step towards the right direction (http://www.santaanita.com/events/8214/#.VCVYvK3sMd8)

I might start betting SA (at least the last two!)

I think NYRA should follow with similar

[Mike_412]

It should be noted that SA raised the takeout on doubles from 18% to 20%.

[Rise Over Run]

What is the point of placing a threshold of a guaranteed pool that you know 99% of the time is going to easily be met? Sure, it will probably bring in more wagering dollars into the pool, but it's nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

For instance, NYRA has a Guaranteed $500k All Stakes Pick 4 ending with the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday. The pool size for the 2013 JCGC pick 4 was $956k; and even on a Saturday (last week) with one Grade 2 the pool was $578k.

There is absolutely no chance the pick 4 pool on Saturday is less than $750k and will most likely go over $1 million. What is the point of advertising a guarantee of $500k?

[DeltaLover]

What is the point of placing a threshold of a guaranteed pool that you know 99% of the time is going to easily be met? Sure, it will probably bring in more wagering dollars into the pool, but it's nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

For instance, NYRA has a Guaranteed $500k All Stakes Pick 4 ending with the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday. The pool size for the 2013 JCGC pick 4 was $956k; and even on a Saturday (last week) with one Grade 2 the pool was $578k.

There is absolutely no chance the pick 4 pool on Saturday is less than $750k and will most likely go over $1 million. What is the point of advertising a guarantee of $500k?

Although I do not follow SA closely, I believe that their doubles do not usually reach 100K, actually I think they are way lower...

[cj]

Although I do not follow SA closely, I believe that their doubles do not usually reach 100K, actually I think they are way lower...

This is true. Maybe the promotion will drive the pool up, but with the takeout increasing to 20% on DDs again, maybe not.

[alydar]

What is the point of placing a threshold of a guaranteed pool that you know 99% of the time is going to easily be met? Sure, it will probably bring in more wagering dollars into the pool, but it's nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

For instance, NYRA has a Guaranteed $500k All Stakes Pick 4 ending with the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday. The pool size for the 2013 JCGC pick 4 was $956k; and even on a Saturday (last week) with one Grade 2 the pool was $578k.

There is absolutely no chance the pick 4 pool on Saturday is less than $750k and will most likely go over $1 million. What is the point of advertising a guarantee of $500k?

Marketing!

[Fingal]

When this was announced, I pulled up a few random weekend charts on Equibase historical from last year to see what the late double pool was. It wasn't close, it was only 80k on average. And I could only find a couple that barely went over 100k. I can see them making this guarantee on weekends, but on a Thursday card too ?

Someone is putting out their neck on this one, as SA is sure hoping the lure of a guarantee will push it over 100k. Or that the increase in takeout will help cover the difference.

[cj]

When this was announced, I pulled up a few random weekend charts on Equibase historical from last year to see what the late double pool was. It wasn't close, it was only 80k on average. And I could only find a couple that barely went over 100k. I can see them making this guarantee on weekends, but on a Thursday card too ?

Someone is putting out their neck on this one, as SA is sure hoping the lure of a guarantee will push it over 100k. Or that the increase in takeout will help cover the difference.


I think they are doing it to drive up daily double handle and show takeout raise didn't matter. Spin, spin, spin. The only way it will be worth betting is if the guarantee isn't reached by a good amount.

[Appy]

They just authorized a study on the effect of takeout on handle. See Bloodhorse.

[cj]

They just authorized a study on the effect of takeout on handle. See Bloodhorse.

Authorized one? There are some good ones that have been done already. The problem is nobody in charge ever actually listens to the conclusions.

[bello]

What am I missing...This is a meaningless gimmick. When was the last time you saw a Daily Double go uncovered at any major track. I must be missing something....Please enlighten me.

[DeltaLover]

What am I missing...This is a meaningless gimmick. When was the last time you saw a Daily Double go uncovered at any major track. I must be missing something....Please enlighten me.

bello, here the case is not about an uncovered combo but an over covered one! :)

[cj]

What am I missing...This is a meaningless gimmick. When was the last time you saw a Daily Double go uncovered at any major track. I must be missing something....Please enlighten me.

This isn't a guaranteed carryover. They are guaranteeing 100k in the pool. So if the fans only bet 90,000, they kick in an extra 10k to the daily double pool. It could be a nice bonus based on past pool sizes. But, again, I'm think this was done to get people to bet the pool in spite of raised takeout.

They'll use some of that special "California Math" to justify raising takeout.

[bello]

"the Xpressbet Daily Double and its $100,000 guarantee assure horseplayers that they have a chance to win more by betting into a large pool."

This is there comment on the link. I have to admit, my largest DD bets would be 20 bucks and that is likely more than the average bettor. If the pool is typically 80k and they guarantee 100k which they hope to make up in handle, does it really effect my potential payout? I know I am at risk of making myself look ignorant here, but I am not sure how I have a chance to win more money unless they do not make up over 100k in true handle. And if that be the case, I imagine this promotion will be short lived.

Is anyone going to really bet more on the DD beacuse of it? I guess if I see a 70k handle with zero time left to post I may jump in more. And I guess I may have just answered my own question because when there are guarantees on horizontal bets ( in particular at the harness tracks) Zero minutes to post may still mean 10 minutes to post.

[olddaddy]

The only way it will be worth betting is if the guarantee isn't reached by a good amount.


What amount do you think it should be to jump in?

[cj]

What amount do you think it should be to jump in?

It will be tough to say since we never really know pool sizes until it is too late. I'd have to study a few days and see the pool as they load, then compare it to final pools.

We also don't know if they will tell us how much is kicked in if the total pool winds up at exactly $100k. Did they kick in 1k, or 20?

[bello]

I just noticed they are actually guaranteeing it's availability for the entrie fall meet.
One of the clues to whether to jump in or not would be how much time zero minutes to post will actually mean. Northfield Park Harness for instance has a P4 10 guarantee and they will keep the drivers scoring in rain sleet or snow until the handle exceeds the guarantee. Now since the weather in nice in Cali, zero minutes may mean 15 minutes. If zero minutes really equals a minute or two at worst and they are well below the threshold, jump in.

I also wonder if Santa Anita will be buying tickets to make up the difference or just putting in cash.

[dirty moose]

Marketing!

End the thread.

[olddaddy]

Ive been watching the doubles pools so far today and none have come close to 50k. I know the feature is the last race but I am really curious if the double pool will get anywhere near 100k.

[taxicab]

Close to the gate.
Pool is at 122k.
Looks like 176k final.

[bello]

Good news for Santa Anita...Push for the bettors

[cj]

Good news for Santa Anita...Push for the bettors

Loss for bettors, who are essentially supporting a 2% takeout increase.

[ronsmac]

Next will be a guaranteed exacta with another takeout increase. I guess horseplayers aren't as smart as I thought.

[bello]

Loss for bettors, who are essentially sputtering a 2% takeout increase.
Yep, forgot about that....Outsmarted by Santa Anita

[davew]

This isn't a guaranteed carryover. They are guaranteeing 100k in the pool. So if the fans only bet 90,000, they kick in an extra 10k to the daily double pool. It could be a nice bonus based on past pool sizes. But, again, I'm think this was done to get people to bet the pool in spite of raised takeout.

They'll use some of that special "California Math" to justify raising takeout.

Is this $10K dead money. or do they punch it in on the winning combo?

[Exotic1]

This isn't a guaranteed carryover. They are guaranteeing 100k in the pool. So if the fans only bet 90,000, they kick in an extra 10k to the daily double pool. It could be a nice bonus based on past pool sizes. But, again, I'm think this was done to get people to bet the pool in spite of raised takeout.

They'll use some of that special "California Math" to justify raising takeout.

True.

In this example they would have to supplement 10k but with the 20% takeout they would get 2k back immediately. Who knows, they may have some insurance to cover a shortfall, but probably not. They're too smart for me.

[Exotic1]

Is this $10K dead money. or do they punch it in on the winning combo?

That's funny. The house never loses.

[EMD4ME]

In my opinion...... and I'm 99% sure.... Its really an 80k guarantee as they guaranty 100k but that 100k is subject to a 20% vig. If 80k is bet, they just lose the takeout, not an additional 20k to bring it to 100k.

Bs marketing ploy as they average 80k in late DD handle.

Anyone who bets this is an idiot as they are supporting the 2% handle increase. At the end, the will say look we increased the takeout and handle went up.

[Exotic1]

In my opinion...... and I'm 99% sure.... Its really an 80k guarantee as they guaranty 100k but that 100k is subject to a 20% vig. If 80k is bet, they just lose the takeout, not an additional 20k to bring it to 100k.

Bs marketing ploy as they average 80k in late DD handle.

Anyone who bets this is an idiot as they are supporting the 2% handle increase. At the end, the will say look we increased the takeout and handle went up.

That's a correct point that Cj brought up earlier.

[JohnGalt1]

Loss for bettors, who are essentially supporting a 2% takeout increase.


To be more accurate, it's a 2 percentage point increase which is an 11% actual increase.

[Exotic1]

Just a general question about these pool guarantees.

What is the attraction that draws increased play into these guaranteed pools? Is the extra money coming from "regular" players that anticipate "dead money" in the pool which we know won't be happening anytime soon, or is it coming from "irregulars" who hope to be the "single" winner? A single winner in a So. Cali daily double pool.

[Poindexter]

Just a general question about these pool guarantees.

What is the attraction that draws increased play into these guaranteed pools? Is the extra money coming from "regular" players that anticipate "dead money" in the pool which we know won't be happening anytime soon, or is it coming from "irregulars" who hope to be the "single" winner? A single winner in a So. Cali daily double pool.

I think the sad part is that there is a certain segment of the population, hopefully not too large, that actually thinks that a guaranteed pool actually means anything. I mean it is the same psychology as the announcer getting on the mike (I know Frank M did this the couple of days that I played Los AL)and excitingly proclaiming we have $67,000 and growing by the minute or whatever number they have in our late pick 4, like that is going the make your payoff any bigger, unless you have a ticket full of bombs that actually hits(and on a daily double it can never make a difference). As mentioned above it is just marketing, and marketing geared to the extremely uneducated. However, on the other hand if people are betting more into these guaranteed pools, that would mean the marketing is working and that they are attracting "dumber" money, which is to the players advantage. On a pool like the Daily Double it is sort of silly, because the probables are in your face, so you know what price you are getting no matter what size the pool is.

Now I realize there are occasions that the guaranteed pool can work in the players favor. Last Sunday at Balomoral they had a carryover and guaranteed a $50,000 pick 5, and only about $38,000 was bet into it.(of course the first 4 races were won by a 1/5 a 2/5 a 6/5 and a 7/5 I believe before finally a favorite lost the final leg-the one I singled of course :lol: ) But do not think these types of situations happen very often.

[Stillriledup]

Loss for bettors, who are essentially supporting a 2% takeout increase.

Right. And when Andy Asaro goes to another CHRB meeting, they'll tell him "See, people don't care about takeout, look at the DDs" but will fail to mention that there was a "guarantee" that they didnt' have during the 18% days.

[stormreveler]

Well, this is a dangerous trap for the public to fall into. If offering guarantees with a high takeout attracts all kinds of money, and more money than a lower takeout does on its own, then we're all screwed.

I saw Asaro say on Twitter that the other doubles didn't take any money. I was working and just did a quick check on the charts from the equivalent day two years ago and I didn't think the difference was stark enough to act like this was overall a salient point for him to make.

Got home in time to see the Chandelier and the HRTV guys were putting up their late double tickets on the screen like it was a Pick 4 or something.

This guarantee is getting promoted heavily.

I hate to say it, but they may be on to something.

[Stillriledup]

Well, this is a dangerous trap for the public to fall into. If offering guarantees with a high takeout attracts all kinds of money, and more money than a lower takeout does on its own, then we're all screwed.

I saw Asaro say on Twitter that the other doubles didn't take any money. I was working and just did a quick check on the charts from the equivalent day two years ago and I didn't think the difference was stark enough to act like this was overall a salient point for him to make.

Got home in time to see the Chandelier and the HRTV guys were putting up their late double tickets on the screen like it was a Pick 4 or something.

This guarantee is getting promoted heavily.

I hate to say it, but they may be on to something.

I think their theory is that if they scream ONE HUNDRED K GUARANTEE ON DDs enough, people might just think its for ALL the doubles....that's what they're hoping.

[Fingal]

Well, this is a dangerous trap for the public to fall into. If offering guarantees with a high takeout attracts all kinds of money, and more money than a lower takeout does on its own, then we're all screwed.



It's amazing what the word guarantee will do. Without putting up a cent of their own money ( unlike Del Mar which seeds the P6 pool with 50K on non-carryover Sundays )


They- aka the TOC & Santa Anita have "miraculously" caused a 50-60K increase.

Just looking at SA's BC preview day last year the late double pool was $ 99,647. This year it jumped to $ 149,832.

And the following Sunday last year was $69,251. Now it went to $132,425.

More bet into a raised takeout without doing a thing. Well played, well played.................
A man with a briefcase can steal more than one with a gun.
:rolleyes:

[Dark Horse]

All this will do is create delays for the last race.

[olddaddy]

After watching the pools opening day, I got suckered into the final double, never again.

[iwearpurple]

I was always under the impression that these "guaranteed pools" were just a gimmick to get people betting into them with the impression that the payoffs would be higher.

PT Barnum was correct many years ago when he said a sucker is born every minute. Looks like it still holds true today.

[EMD4ME]

All this will do is create delays for the last race.

Do you mean next to last race?

[Exotic1]

Loss for bettors, who are essentially supporting a 2% takeout increase.


Here's an article by Steven Crist:

http://www.drf.com/news/crist-players-may-not-warm-coast-coast-double

[Robert Fischer]

It's a behavioral finance gimmick meant to exploit bettor psychology.

We now have at least 2 threads and at least 45 posts on this gimmick.

We had intelligent posters who have experience in this game wondering aloud if there was a possibility of seeing added value from the gimmick - imagine what the avg. gambler is going to think.

Scratch that, you can see the pool evidence to KNOW what the avg. gambler thought.

There is a lot of money that Santa Anita and all the horse racing executives leave on the table because of their lack of insight and because of their inefficient ways. It's unfortunate that they would leave those eyesores be, while choosing to leverage bettor psychology and a takeout increase in this relatively small thing.

[Exotic1]

It's a behavioral finance gimmick meant to exploit bettor psychology.

We now have at least 2 threads and at least 45 posts on this gimmick.

We had intelligent posters who have experience in this game wondering aloud if there was a possibility of seeing added value from the gimmick - imagine what the avg. gambler is going to think.

Scratch that, you can see the pool evidence to KNOW what the avg. gambler thought.

There is a lot of money that Santa Anita and all the horse racing executives leave on the table because of their lack of insight and because of their inefficient ways. It's unfortunate that they would leave those eyesores be, while choosing to leverage bettor psychology and a takeout increase in this relatively small thing.

:ThmbUp:

[Poindexter]

A great point brought up in the Crist artcle:

Rather than trying to promote a high-takeout, low-return bet, tracks should be paying more attention to the way they are arranging their races for the existing multirace wagers that people actually like and play. Southern California has long offered a chaotic and baffling maiden claimer, chock-full with first-time starters, as the last race of the day. It’s a cynical and customer-unfriendly attempt to withhold relevant information (i.e. win-pool odds on first-time starters) from customers playing pick threes, pick fours, and pick sixes in the blind.

---------------------------------

I know maidens, and maiden claimers full of first time starters are a big part of this game, but it puts public money at such a disadvantage to "smart Money" when they put a race full of first time starters in any pick sequence. The smart money may have 3 horses with a 80% chance of winning while the public is grasping at straws going 5 or 6 deep to attain that same 80% hit rate.