Some post race thoughts...

[JPinMaryland]

How could anyone have doubted Smarty Jones? The pace seemed just about right for him. THe footing must have been giving way some, as the final time was 2:04. Which might mean that opening 1/2 in 46+ was just little too much effort for Lionhart.

I guess the track was rated Sloppy. WHich usually is better than muddy, it was sloppy but not sloppy fast.

I am almost more in love w/ Lionhart. He really has heart. He's kinda small and doesnt seem to have long enuf strides to turn on another gear. Too bad because him/Smarty would have been something to see down the stretch.

He (lionhardt) raced about 3 wide on the first turn even though no one was inside him. Does anyone know if that was be design in order to avoid an inside bias or does the horse just like to run out there? The tv guys seemed to think that is his preference.

Tapit did make a move before the second turn. At which pt. he was 5 or 6 wide for almost the entire turn. At the top of the stretch he was between horses and didnt seem to have any desire, a long trip around the turn as well as a sloppy track and a moderate pace made it almost impossible to catch the leaders.

He did do that head turn thing at the top of the stretch. He has talent, maybe in the Belmont when the field opens up.

Beyer numbers. If there was ever a test for Beyer figures, this race would have to be it. A lot of people discounted Smarty because of his competition/connections/pedigree but the Beyer told a different story didnt they? High 100s and high 90s consistently. Based on numbers he had to be favored.

Come to think of it, Lionhart's numbers were fast and consistent as well. So hats off to Beyer! Maybe I'll be a believer.

Bringing up the rear. Those last four horses were rather predictable. Minister Eric: no one's ever been high on him. Quenton's Gold Rush: won his last race but not thought very highly prior to that. Pollard's: carrying 12 more lbs than in IL. Who else? St Averil?

[Tom]

I was happy to see those people win the big one. They have had enough problems in their lives and it just shows you what faith and committment can do. They never gave up the dream.
I made a rather large WP bet on Lion Tamer, but when I saw who it was breathing down his neck in the stretch, I had to root for him. That was the perfect outcome in a year where I was not nauseated daily by Lukas and Baffert. And it was pure class leaving the PHA jockey on board and not jumping for Bailey or someone. Dance with the one that brung ya. Didn't notice, did he sell his butt for some cheap decal?
Philly Park....always loved tht track.

[Zaf]

I had a big win bet on Lion Heart. When Smarty was goin right by him, I didn't feel so bad. If it was someone else I would of been pissed. I was happy for the winning connections.

ZAFONIC

[Richard]

I backed my $3 win bet on Lion Heart with a $9 place bet.And surprisingly,I was also "wise"enough to take out a $2 future wager on SJ during the last pool.If I doubted SJ,at least it was'nt total doubt.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Richard
I backed my $3 win bet on Lion Heart with a $9 place bet.And surprisingly,I was also "wise"enough to take out a $2 future wager on SJ during the last pool.If I doubted SJ,at least it was'nt total doubt.

what about that guy who was quoted in the Beyer chat who had Smarty at 200-1 in a future pool in Vegas or somewhere?

Man .......that dude was happy today..........

[kingfin66]

Jeez Richard, you cleaned up today LOL. Hey, I'm not knocking you. I put $162 into that race thinking it was going to be a race won by late runners. Boy was I ever wrong. Congrats on your winning bets, especially the future.

[JPinMaryland]

Hey speaking of daily doubles or whatever. what was the final payout on that exact thing they had going with the Kentucky Oaks wagering? The expected payouts looked a little dubious when they had them posted on their board before the big race. Not that offshore bettting isnt killing the gaming industry here.

[cj]

I was happy to see Smarty win. I like when the little guys take all the money, and this time I mean ALL the money.

I wasn't a big fan of the race, bet 20 WP on Limehouse, that was it. Smarty was a strong contender. I thought 4-1 was a bit of an underlay, so I don't have any regrets.

Anyway, looking forward to the spotlight shifting to my hometown in two weeks. I imagine a lot of traffic heading south from Philly this weekend. I hope he doesn't lose, or in true Philly fan fashion, they will probably boo him! :)

The figures should be interesting from the race, but I don't think there will be any surprises. The best horses ran 1-2, and the pace was quick, so I don't see any "excuse" horses showing up in the Preakness. I'll dismiss Eddington out of hand, no shot. The Wood was an awful race, maybe now people will believe it. Rock Hard Ten, Lion Heart, or Smarty Jones will win the race in my opinion, probably the opinion of every other fan too!

[Richard]

In the last future pool ,which I believe was on the day of the Arkansas Derby.a $2 wager on SJ returned $24 and change.And if I'm not mistaken,SJ was available in the last future pool only.

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally posted by Richard
In the last future pool ,which I believe was on the day of the Arkansas Derby.a $2 wager on SJ returned $24 and change.And if I'm not mistaken,SJ was available in the last future pool only.

The 200/1 odds line was probably in reference to the futures pool at Bally's casino which came out back in the winter.

Richard, ever make it up to Woodlands?

[Valuist]

I give credit to Smarty Jones for definitely being the best horse yesterday but I have to believe the connections of many of the also-rans will toss the race out, due to the slop. In other years we've seen 18-20 horses in the Derby and only 5 go on to Pimlico. I haven't heard who's expected to go, but I would guess its definitely more than the typical 5. Zito said The Cliffs Edge lost both his shoes during the race and Birdstone lost one. Slop form can be completely irrelevant when running on a fast track (and vica versa) so I'd hold off on the Triple Crown talk.

As for the Beyer on the Derby, this is going to have to be 100% projection. Due to the conditions, there's no way you could tie any of the other race times to the Derby. I'd say a 110 for Smarty Jones.

[JPinMaryland]

I too would be interested in what the Beyer figures are if for amusement only.

Is there a website I can go to get them?

I looked again at the tape. Imperialisms drive down the stretch was something along the lines of Little Current's losing effort in '74, I think.

Imp. came about 8 wide on the turn, came up right behind someone, got to his outside and then proceeded to pass 8 horses in the stretch to finish 3rd. He made up gobs of ground, but maybe that part of the track was more solid. Anyhow he was the only one gaining any ground, unless Limehouse made up a few yards. Limehouse got a much better trip.

Did anyone see Borrego's or Cliff's edges trips and can comment? I fell asleep still watching my tape.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sorry, My fun longshot was Pro Prado, who fell asleep during the race! (My mom in law cashedf 2 1/2 times her bet!!

[Bubbles]

I was impressed with Action This Day's move. Was last down the backstretch, ended up passing 12 horses in the last half. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he wins the Belmont.

[Richard]

CORRECTION!!!
My $2 future wager on SJ returned $23.60.I should read my charts more closely.
Pace Cap'n,
I like to make it to WDS whenever possible.Only one month out the year for T-breds but simulcasting and g-hounds all year 'round.Do you go there yourself?

[PaceAdvantage]

Action This Day did indeed finish better than I thought, but I doubt he will win another race this year (unless it is an allowance race)....Kris S. is a fairly good off track sire, isn't he?

Imperialism did indeed have the most difficult of trips. I'm not surprised Kent D. was pissed as he crossed the finish line (watch him bang his fist in disgust as he crosses the wire). Then again, maybe Kent was mostly to blame for his colts predicaments during the running.....Unlike ATD, Imperialism WILL be heard from again...

[JPinMaryland]

Oh yeah Action This Day, that's the other horse that was making up ground not Limey. Thanks for pt'ing that out Bubbles. I wouldnt count him out of Belmont, people continue to bet him for some reason, hasnt really had a good race all yr.

[cj]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
...Unlike ATD, Imperialism WILL be heard from again...

Closing off a fast pace to run a distant third does not tell me this guy is a top 3yo. I'm sure he'll win a few decent races, but I don't think he's a big player in the 3yo division.

[OTM Al]

Yep, the final futures price fro Smarty was a bit above 10-1. I was actually shocked when he wasn't a single in the 2nd round as I was expecting to be able to bet him. I'd gone to watch every race since I saw him annihilate the field in the Count Fleet end of last year at AQU. Had $10 on him in the 3rd though, so that will prime the pot next time, which probably won't be til Preakness day.

[Valuist]

I think the Derby pace was irrelevant. I've seen many sloppy track races where the race shape was very fast early and slow late but nothing closes. If I'm an owner or trainer of a stretch running also-ran in the Derby, I completely toss the race out.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Closing off a fast pace to run a distant third does not tell me this guy is a top 3yo. I'm sure he'll win a few decent races, but I don't think he's a big player in the 3yo division.

It's not just that he closed off a fast pace. It's the way he closed, and the mountain he had to climb to get there....

[brdman12]

I'd like to see Imperialism skip the Preakness, and run in the Belmont. Might be able to run them down there, and the odds might improve if they skip the race. But, of course, what do I know...lol...I picked Master David?

[PaceAdvantage]

Imperialsm could be this year's Victory Gallop. Still can't believe Real Quiet lost that race....LOL

[JPinMaryland]

Not only that, but Imp. was one of only two horses making up ground and he did it in the slop. I thought it was a given that wet tracks favor front runners?

Dont know why you are not impressed by that. Under a faster pace at Pimlico, he could be in position to turn on the jets at the right moment.