workout ?'s for Fortune Hunter

[smf]

Thanks for taking the time to entertain (and perhaps enlighten me) my thoughts and questions on patterns, FH..

My personal experience tells me that trainer patterns cannot be solved/ found by programs and the like. For an example, I use workout patterns among other things when applicable for trainers I bet.

Like I posted earlier, I noticed that you and ITM use a workout ranking of sorts. I'm completely unfamiliar w/ what you do in this regard, so I'll just lay out scenarios and you can take it from there.

>a 2 yo w/ 2 career sprint starts, runs 4f 47.4b. His next start is a turf route (after 2 sprints).
>from the same barn, a 5 yo ran 4f 49.4b. He's a sprinter, always has been.
>same barn, a 4yo router who hasn't had a history of fast works and puts in a 4f 48.0b.
>different barn, a 2yo w/ 2 career sprint starts, runs 4f in 49.4b. His next start is a turf route (after 2 sprints).

All works were clocked on the same day.


Do you "rank" that first 2 yo's work as having a better ranking?

If so, Why?

FH, I've only been to LS in the am twice. The rent a cops don't like cappers on the grounds at LS so I haven't gone back, but here's what I took from my visits...

>one of those mornings, the dew was thick. The horses that ran on the surface early in the first session seemed to be having a tougher go of things than later in the day, esp after the grounds crew came in 75 minutes after they started the workouts. Whatever the crew did to the track, the runners that worked after 7:30 were obviously having an easier time of it.

>the leading trainer at LS worked his runners differently than most others. He obviously instructed one 2 yo's jock to run "between runners" for obvious reasons (to learn how to race!). He also had 2 horses run at stablemates as a workout. They cruised for 2f, then the whip was put to their asses trying to run down their stablemates.

My problem w/ putting a "grade" on *any* of this mess is that the runners who were running at the stablemates had a slower clocked time than the cannon fodder (assuming all were timed- I have no idea who came out w/ an official clocking), yet the slower clocked runners had the more effective workout. This was plain and obvious to me.

Also, what about the 2yo that went "4 wide" in his work b/c he was instructed to run between runners (stablemates)? His time is bound to be worthless b/c of the time & ground lost going wide, correct?

I'd be interested how you "rank" workouts, FH.

Thanks.

[karlskorner]

SMF

I have always felt that "workouts" were important, especially if there is a layoff, the time was never important. Like the Clocker told his apprentice "remember 48 and 2 makes 50"

Karl

[FortuneHunter]

Hello smf,

Let me briefly explain the HDM Workout Figure and Ranking:

First we have a chart that assigns a speed figure to the Workout time based on distance and type (handily or breezing). Here is a link to the chart:
http://www.handicappers-datamine.com/cgi-bin/UltraBoard/UltraBoard.cgi?action=Read&BID=1&TID=886&SID=52171
We adjust the workout speed figure based on:
Course condition
Gate Work
Dogs Up

There is a rule that needs to be met for a horse to get a HDM Workout Figure:

2 Workouts within 45 days at the facility where the race in question is to be run.

The HDM Workout Figure is the average of the last 2 workout speed figures, if the entry qualifies using the rule above.

The purpose of the HDM Workout Figure is to rate the entries workout form for the race in question.

The HDM Workout Ranking is a ranking of the HDM Workout Figures, for the entries in the race in question.

It appears from your example that you are under the impression the Workout Ranking is a ranking of workouts for that day/distance, like in the DRF. That is not the case for the HDM Workout Ranking on the HDM Worksheet. Our ranking is a ranking of entries in the race in question against each other. It is meant to show Workout Form for each entry that meet the rule above.

Back to your observations on workouts. Workouts are tricky to evaluate as you have described. We take a broad brush approach. If an entry gets a HDM Workout Rank, we know he has had 2 “good works” on the track where the race in question is being run, within 45 days. If the HDM Workout Fig is between 88 and 95 we feel the entry is working very well and could be ready to run his race.

If the handicapper had the luxury to be on track to observe workouts and know which horse is which out there, I would suggest a screen that lets the user manually adjust the Workout figure based on observations. Since we don’t have that luxury, we never built that screen.

That’s it for now, FH

[smf]

FH,

Thank you kindly for the reply--we'll have to agree to disagree.

A few points....

You mentioned your 2 work/ 45 day guideline. I think from what I saw, that is faulty (jmho). It is surrendering an undying belief in the integrity of the clocking "system" which I don't believe is always underhanded, but it's a tuff job. The mornings I was out there, there had to be AT LEAST 200 horses on the track in the a.m..

This opens the door for many honest mistakes. The clockers I saw had s-watches, walkie talkies and a clipboard (some of them). None had a palm/ laptop and to be honest, I don't see how it c/ improve their job performance. >>>>If a clocker has trouble identifying horses, a *handicapper* w/b totally lost (I was). A puter of any kind w/h been of no use. The best you c/ do was see what trainer's stock was there (no easy task, btw) and match the times when thet were pub'd later in the day.

It's just that the workout "system" that is in place has many of the same flaws as chart calling has. It's nowhere near what it has to be in order to invest anything more than "fun" $$ using the current system. Ridersup's comments here about chartcallers M-O (and Litfin's writings) have made that clear. And from what I saw w/ workouts, the same applies w/ morning works as well.

To each their own. I really miss having my tracks' turf races on TRN so I can replay them. I used to get many 10-1 + turfers using the same (visual) skill that cjmilkowski posted of yesterday. Most of my bets are now on claims (needing paddock shots when I can get em).

Thanks again FH, and best of luck.

[FortuneHunter]

I agree, all information has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Workouts are part of the puzzle, they are fuzzy signal, and how much wieght you give them in the handicapping scheme is a judgement call.

A positive note on workouts is that the public does not pay much attention, which leads to value.

Trip handicapping is very interesting to me. I am fortunate because the FOX Sports TV has a half hour show which replays the NYRA races, start to finish, with the (alt.) track annoucer hosting. It is a great show for trip handicappers. Only problem is scheduling. Sometimes it is hard to find.
The knock on trip handicapping for me is that it is too time consuming.

Good Luck to all, FH

[sq764]

I still keep a spreadsheet of horses that I see with horrible trips in races I have bet, but I am not a trip handicapper. What I found was that I was worrying too much about the trip a horse got and failed to properly guage the horse's class and form in the next race. I would bet a horse the next time out based on the trip he got, not really doing the logical handicapping involved in figuring out whether he fit the race or not.

I have found that now when I handicap the race and the horse I noted last out with a bad trip fits the race, I will increase my bet and feel more comfortable with the wager.


Scott

[smf]

FH,

Please don't misunderstand me, I DO use workout patterns in my capping but do so by trainer tendencies, not necessarily times.

I just read your little buddy's tiff on HTR. If he's referring to me, he is nowhere near the target on my stance on workouts. :rolleyes:

Later on, I'll sign up w/ the yahoozoo board and he and I can settle it there.

Btw, nice points you gave on why the pro-capper life isn't for you at this time. The only large advantage (of prof capping) is that you'd be able to set your own hours, basically. It w/ allow for flexibility and more time w/ the kids.

All in all tho, in your situation I think you're making the right choice (for you).

Good luck

[Tom]

Have to agre - the NYRA recap show is great- best camera angles in racing. Some tracks show such a hodge-podge, you could never spot a trip.

Tom