NFL week 3

[Valuist]

Week 2: 3-2 4-5 YTD

NY Jets -1.5 Public keeps getting Bears wrong. Overrated them to start (and underrated Buffalo). Then fans went too far the other way giving them no chance vs a good, but maybe little overrated SF team. Now the bandwagon is full despite the fact SF was in the game until the end despite -4 in turnovers and over 100 yards in penalties. Bears still can't stop the run and the Jets will run.

Carolina -3 Steelers in good spot last week and laid an egg. Non conference games not a good spot for visiting teams, esp. when the opponent is better defensively.

Buffalo -2.5 Chargers flying high off win over defending SB champs. They come back to earth this week as teams after playing Seattle tend to be licking their wounds the following week.

Denver +5 Super Bowl rematch. Broncos not just beaten, but were embarrassed. Both Seahawks and Broncos failed to cover (Sea lost outright) as both teams may have been looking ahead. Give Manning an offseason to look at film and he will play much better this time around.

[Valuist]

Adding Tampa Bay +7

[ReplayRandall]

Should have left original post as your plays......Atlanta 35-0, in 2nd Quarter.

[Valuist]

Should have left original post as your plays......Atlanta 35-0, in 2nd Quarter.

I'm well aware of that fact, but thanks for pointing it out. :rolleyes:

[ReplayRandall]

No offense intended, just wanting to know why you added the play just before game-time?

[NJ Stinks]

I'm well aware of that fact, but thanks for pointing it out. :rolleyes:

Valuist, cheer up. Last week I was kicking myself for not heeding your opinion of the 49ers.

[cj's dad]

That had to be the most brutal SNF_MNF_THNF_ football game ever.

[Speed Figure]

No offense intended, just wanting to know why you added the play just before game-time?

How about posting some of your picks??

[ReplayRandall]

How about posting some of your picks??

Sure.......$6000 on New England moneyline at -1200.

With the $500 in winnings-

$100 on Kansas City moneyline at +170

$100 on Pittsburgh moneyline at +160

$100 on Chicago moneyline at +135

$160 on San Fran moneyline at -160

Remaining $40 goes for T-bones on the grill......

[BetHorses!]

Sure.......$6000 on New England moneyline at -1200.

With the $500 in winnings-

$100 on Kansas City moneyline at +170

$100 on Pittsburgh moneyline at +160

$100 on Chicago moneyline at +135

$160 on San Fran moneyline at -160

Remaining $40 goes for T-bones on the grill......


u r a bookmakers dream

[ReplayRandall]

u r a bookmakers dream


They tell me they just LOVE your baseball action......

33-39 -1995 YTD- Just had to shut it down, didn't you......

[Robert Fischer]

Bills -2.5
Giants pick
Vikings +10
Ravens -1.5
Steelers +3
Jets -3
49ers -3


YTD 6-3

[BetHorses!]

They tell me they just LOVE your baseball action......

33-39 -1995 YTD- Just had to shut it down, didn't you......

haha ! Yesss very bad season

[NJ Stinks]

Last weeks result:

Carolina -2.5 vs. Detroit
St. Louis +5.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Green Bay -8 vs. Jets
San Francisco -7 vs. Chicago
Over 54.5 Colts-Eagles

0-0 record to date

Week 3

Dallas -1.5 vs. St. Louis
New Orleans -10.5 vs. Minnesota
over 52.5 Lions-Packers
Indianapolis -7 vs. Jacksonville
Carolina -3 vs. Pittsburgh

3-2 record to date

[Marshall Bennett]

Eagles -6
Texans (even)
Packers +2.5
Cardinals +3
Chiefs +4
Panthers -3

Last week : 1-4
Season : 4-7

[dirt]

YTD 0-3

PITT +3

OAK UNDER 46.5

SF -3

SEATTLE -4.5

[pandy]

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/nfl_bets.htm

[_______]

IND -7

2-1

[Valuist]

Valuist, cheer up. Last week I was kicking myself for not heeding your opinion of the 49ers.

I think there's some real chemistry issues with the Niners. The whole Harbaugh/GM thing is not good; there's been some significant injuries; the jury is still out on Kaepernick, despite his talent, and now the Ray McDonald thing. There's a lot of talent on the team but they are aging at some key positions and I think they go in reverse this year. Having said that, I'm not on Arizona today.

Adding one play: Dallas/St Louis Under 44

The media loves to point out how horrible the Cowboy D was last year. They were but they've looked much better this year. The score in week 1 was very deceptive. 3 of the TDs the team allowed were directly related to turnovers. St. Louis still has plenty of talent on the defensive side. I've also heard Romo has some back issues; not enough to not play but enough where the Cowboys may run the ball more this season.

[Valuist]

No offense intended, just wanting to know why you added the play just before game-time?

No problem. It was a bad move, not just because of the end result. A friend who I consider a very good handicapper, talked me into the play. In retrospect, it was stupid because it felt like I forced it because it was a TV game. I rarely do that.

My opinion before the season was Tampa would be improved as Lovie would get them to win the turnover battle and they'd dominate special teams. That opinion was clearly wrong. Unless a coach or manager is top rate, they often fall below expectations in their second go around. Pete Carroll is an obvious exception.

But I'd rather lose a game like this that suffer a brutal beat missing by a point at end of the game. No problem turning the page after Thursday's debacle.

[headhawg]

Last week: a miserable 1-3
Season-to-date: 3-5

This week:

Chargers +2.5
Rams +2
Texans +1

[BetHorses!]

5-2 YTD


Boys -1.5

Cards +3

Saints -10

adding Eagle UNDER 50

[Rookies]

N.O. -9.5
Hou-3
Sea -4.5
Cinci -7
Buff -2

YTD = 3-2

[Speed Figure]

San Diego +2.5
Dallas -2
New Orleans -10
Indianapolis -6.5

4-3 YTD

[pandy]

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/nfl_bets.htm

All 3 games won. 4-2 for season.

[Speed Figure]

San Diego +2.5
Dallas -2
New Orleans -10
Indianapolis -6.5

4-3 YTD



4-0 on the board and in real life! parlay hit $$$$$ Pick 5 time!!

8-3 for the season!!

[BetHorses!]

5-2 YTD


Boys -1.5

Cards +3

Saints -10

adding Eagle UNDER 50


3-1

8-3 YTD

[burnsy]

Chicago + 2.5

I agree with Valuist. Bears are bad vs. the running game but the Jets secondary should more than make up for that if the game is close. Hopefully the Bears will be pass happy right from the start or fall behind and have no choice.

[Valuist]

Chicago + 2.5

I agree with Valuist. Bears are bad vs. the running game but the Jets secondary should more than make up for that if the game is close. Hopefully the Bears will be pass happy right from the start or fall behind and have no choice.

But I'm not on the Bears.

Both Marshall and Jeffrey will play but both are banged up so that could limit the vertical passing game. Marshall is a warrior; he'd play with a broken bone so I don't think he'll be impacted as much.

[burnsy]

But I'm not on the Bears.

Both Marshall and Jeffrey will play but both are banged up so that could limit the vertical passing game. Marshall is a warrior; he'd play with a broken bone so I don't think he'll be impacted as much.

I know, you liked the Jets, your assumption on the Bears defense is a correct one, but you got to factor in the Jets errors too. Its something you can almost count on.........before the game starts. The Bears got even more battered during the game and were lucky to hold on. The officiating sucked too...for both sides but the Bears definitely got a couple beneficial calls. When the Jets are favorites against a decent NFC team........its hard for me to picture them covering.

[pandy]

I know, you liked the Jets, your assumption on the Bears defense is a correct one, but you got to factor in the Jets errors too. Its something you can almost count on.........before the game starts. The Bears got even more battered during the game and were lucky to hold on. The officiating sucked too...for both sides but the Bears definitely got a couple beneficial calls. When the Jets are favorites against a decent NFC team........its hard for me to picture them covering.


This is what makes betting on NFL games tough, stupid turnovers, like Geno's pick 6, which was a terrible play, bad calls, and the officials made a few big mistakes including taking away a Jets TD when they incorrectly blew a whistle to stop a play...Throughout the season, many teams lose games that they should win because of these things. With the injuries the Bears had last night, the Jets should have beat them. But the Jets also blew the game against Green Bay last week.

The officiating throughout the league has been horrible so far this year. As a bettor, you just have to hope that the bad calls even out and help you win some of the games the refs stole from you.

[Robert Fischer]

Just typing this so i don't have to count again
Bills -2.5L
Giants pickW
Vikings +10L
Ravens -1.5W
Steelers +3W
Jets -3L
49ers -3L
so that's 3-4
and 9-7 on the year

[Valuist]

Brutal week for me. Can't ever remember an ofer week but I went 0-5. Many things that worked in the past, running game edge and defense, clearly don't work as well as they used to. I could see a shift as defensive minded and rush minded bets did poorly last year, until around T-Giving. After that point they were red hot. Those factors still obviously very important during post-season. But regular season? Clearly not the same.

Coaches like Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith are now obsolete. Ryan might be able to design a good defense, but the overly conservative decision making is a killer; 7 trips inside the Bears' 25 and only 19 pts? That can only happen when a team is content to settle for 3 pts instead of 7. And when you're at the 2 yard line and have a battering back like Chris Ivory, give him the damned ball. Don't let Geno Smith tiptoe around. Jets D played a great game but tough to overcome the mistakes of Smith and Ryan.

[ReplayRandall]

Week 2: 3-2 4-5 YTD

NY Jets -1.5 Public keeps getting Bears wrong. Overrated them to start (and underrated Buffalo). Then fans went too far the other way giving them no chance vs a good, but maybe little overrated SF team. Now the bandwagon is full despite the fact SF was in the game until the end despite -4 in turnovers and over 100 yards in penalties. Bears still can't stop the run and the Jets will run.

Carolina -3 Steelers in good spot last week and laid an egg. Non conference games not a good spot for visiting teams, esp. when the opponent is better defensively.

Buffalo -2.5 Chargers flying high off win over defending SB champs. They come back to earth this week as teams after playing Seattle tend to be licking their wounds the following week.

Denver +5 Super Bowl rematch. Broncos not just beaten, but were embarrassed. Both Seahawks and Broncos failed to cover (Sea lost outright) as both teams may have been looking ahead. Give Manning an offseason to look at film and he will play much better this time around.
Adding Tampa Bay +7
Adding one play: Dallas/St Louis Under 44

Valuist, just when you think it can't get any worse......you were 0-6.....:)

[Maximillion]

Valuist, just when you think it can't get any worse......you were 0-6.....:)

bad karma.....

whenever Valuist posts i feel i might learn something about football.

[ReplayRandall]

bad karma.....

whenever Valuist posts i feel i might learn something about football.


I believe Valuist is a big boy and can take a little good natured ribbin'. On the other hand Max, I think you may be a bit thin-skinned.........and that brings about horrible karma.

[Maximillion]

I believe Valuist is a big boy and can take a little good natured ribbin'. On the other hand Max, I think you may be a bit thin-skinned.........and that brings about horrible karma.

I like reading actual thoughts and opinions and ill leave it at that.

[ReplayRandall]

I like reading actual thoughts and opinions and ill leave it at that.

Read post #9......that's REAL life and REAL money-line wagering. I'll let you have the last word........

[BetHorses!]

Read post #9......that's REAL life and REAL money-line wagering. I'll let you have the last word........


Why would you lay 12/1 on anything?

[ReplayRandall]

Why would you lay 12/1 on anything?

The programs that I fused together, came up with the highest predictive rating in over 2 years. New England was a 96% predicted winner. Simplifying the math- New England wins $100 x 96 times=9600, Oakland wins $1200 x 4 times=4800. According to the figures on the money-line, this play was a 100% overlay at -1200. I then watched New England play its worst home game in over a year, but was lucky enough to barely hold on for the win. The amount bet was a to facilitate a targeted $500 profit which I spread over four other games. I play only to win, thus the money-line wagers........

[BetHorses!]

The programs that I fused together, came up with the highest predictive rating in over 2 years. New England was a 96% predicted winner. Simplifying the math- New England wins $100 x 96 times=9600, Oakland wins $1200 x 4 times=4800. According to the figures on the money-line, this play was a 100% overlay at -1200. I then watched New England play its worst home game in over a year, but was lucky enough to barely hold on for the win. The amount bet was a to facilitate a targeted $500 profit which I spread over four other games. I play only to win, thus the money-line wagers........

96% based on your program. 88% based on ML close at Pinnacle

[ReplayRandall]

96% based on your program. 88% based on ML close at Pinnacle

Close at Pinnacle indicates clearly a wager on Oakland at +1000........Different programs lead to opposing wagers, concluding with vastly differing results.......May the best program win.

[pandy]

Valuist's NFL analysis is solid, I wouldn't bet against him in the long run.

[ReplayRandall]

Valuist's NFL analysis is solid, I wouldn't bet against him in the long run.


He is a solid read, but......



No problem. It was a bad move, not just because of the
end result. A friend who I consider a very good handicapper, talked me into the
play. In retrospect, it was stupid because it felt like I forced it because it
was a TV game. I rarely do that.

My opinion before the season was
Tampa would be improved as Lovie would get them to win the turnover battle and
they'd dominate special teams. That opinion was clearly wrong. Unless a coach
or manager is top rate, they often fall below expectations in their second go
around. Pete Carroll is an obvious exception.

But I'd rather lose a
game like this that suffer a brutal beat missing by a point at end of the game.
No problem turning the page after Thursday's debacle.


I respect him more for the way he honestly answered my question. In his answer, he revealed an important lesson we all should watch out for......

[BetHorses!]

Valuist one of the sharpest here. Year after year winning NFL selections among others

[Marshall Bennett]

Sort of reminds me of a good jockey. One bad ride that cost players some bucks and instantly he's not worth a shit anymore. :)

[BetHorses!]

Sort of reminds me of a good jockey. One bad ride that cost players some bucks and instantly he's not worth a shit anymore. :)


Haha yup. ...bad ride Val...now start week 4 thread and lets get em

[burnsy]

Brutal week for me. Can't ever remember an ofer week but I went 0-5. Many things that worked in the past, running game edge and defense, clearly don't work as well as they used to. I could see a shift as defensive minded and rush minded bets did poorly last year, until around T-Giving. After that point they were red hot. Those factors still obviously very important during post-season. But regular season? Clearly not the same.

Coaches like Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith are now obsolete. Ryan might be able to design a good defense, but the overly conservative decision making is a killer; 7 trips inside the Bears' 25 and only 19 pts? That can only happen when a team is content to settle for 3 pts instead of 7. And when you're at the 2 yard line and have a battering back like Chris Ivory, give him the damned ball. Don't let Geno Smith tiptoe around. Jets D played a great game but tough to overcome the mistakes of Smith and Ryan.

That's the problem with the Jets. Pandy was complaining about getting screwed by the refs...which I agree there were a couple bad calls. But no one made Geno throw a pick six, seconds into the game. Another in the red zone...end zone and a fumble where the guy could not get out of bounds with the ball. They are just a sloppy team.

[pandy]

Hard to argue with that, they had Green Bay beat and blew it, and they blew a game they should have won to a Chicago team that was decimated by injuries.

[_______]

IND -7

2-1

3-1

PHI + 4.5
JAC/SD over 44.5

I'll move this to week 4 once the thread is established.

[burnsy]

Hard to argue with that, they had Green Bay beat and blew it, and they blew a game they should have won to a Chicago team that was decimated by injuries.

I here that...what the hells wrong with those guys? Think its coaching or just a bunch of young players?

[Valuist]

The programs that I fused together, came up with the highest predictive rating in over 2 years. New England was a 96% predicted winner. Simplifying the math- New England wins $100 x 96 times=9600, Oakland wins $1200 x 4 times=4800. According to the figures on the money-line, this play was a 100% overlay at -1200. I then watched New England play its worst home game in over a year, but was lucky enough to barely hold on for the win. The amount bet was a to facilitate a targeted $500 profit which I spread over four other games. I play only to win, thus the money-line wagers........

You are a fraud. Anyone taking delight in a moneyline play that steep is not a long time winner in anything involving value decisions. You probably get your ass kicked not only in football, but horse racing and the market. The Raiders were in that game right until the end.

[pandy]

I here that...what the hells wrong with those guys? Think its coaching or just a bunch of young players?


In my opinion, the Jets are a well coached team. They do have several young players in key positions.

[ReplayRandall]

You are a fraud. Anyone taking delight in a moneyline play that steep is not a long time winner in anything involving value decisions. You probably get your ass kicked not only in football, but horse racing and the market. The Raiders were in that game right until the end.


The moneyline on the New England game went as high as -1500 before game-time. Do you think all that action is "stupid" fraud money? You obviously have been a spread player all your life but choose to show your ignorance when it comes to the moneyline aspects of value wagering. I've had a fiscally successful life and have been retired since 2010 at age 52. I was wrong to think you were a big boy and could handle your setbacks with a bit of humor and humbleness. I find your post to be, in its totality, simply beyond asinine...........

[BetHorses!]

The moneyline on the New England game went as high as -1500 before game-time.


Where did it close?

10 years we have been here producing winning NFL picks right here, Valuist more than me so do your due diligence before you come in here and say ridiculous stuff. And Pats very lucky not to pay the game

[ReplayRandall]

Where did it close?

10 years we have been here producing winning NFL picks right here, Valuist more than me so do your due diligence before you come in here and say ridiculous stuff. And Pats very lucky not to pay the game

Of all the people to make a comment after your disaster of a baseball season, you're going to school me on ANYTHING? Quit while you're way behind as both of you are coming off as a bunch of sore losers and total horse's asses. The game has changed tremendously in the last 5 years due to computing/algorithmic power. You are both way behind the curve today. Good luck to you both in the decline of your prognosticating careers. I'm done with your absurd comments and this conversation. I'll let you have the last word.......

[BetHorses!]

Of all the people to make a comment after your disaster of a baseball season, you're going to school me on ANYTHING? Quit while you're way behind as both of you are coming off as a bunch of sore losers and total horse's asses. The game has changed tremendously in the last 5 years due to computing/algorithmic power. You are both way behind the curve today. Good luck to you both in the decline of your prognosticating careers. I'm done with your absurd comments and this conversation. I'll let you have the last word.......


Come up w new material other than my one bad baseball season O'reilly.