PA Derby and Cotillion

[thespaah]

Saw an article in bloodhorse.com.....If those top horses nominated go, these two races will have very good fields.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87338/americasbestracingnet-to-stream-penn-derby?source=rss

[classhandicapper]

Both races look terrific.

[Redboard]

I only hope that they can handle the crowd. The first time that the Kentucky derby winner has ever raced at PARX (or Philadelphia Park, Liberty Bell, etc.). PARX has free parking and admission. 25,000 would be the absolute limit. Sheena Parveen is hot! Should be fun.

[lamboguy]

I only hope that they can handle the crowd. The first time that the Kentucky derby winner has ever raced at PARX (or Philadelphia Park, Liberty Bell, etc.). PARX has free parking and admission. 25,000 would be the absolute limit. Sheena Parveen is hot! Should be fun.they might have free parking, but they are charging me $350 for a table!

[camourous]

I only hope that they can handle the crowd. The first time that the Kentucky derby winner has ever raced at PARX (or Philadelphia Park, Liberty Bell, etc.). PARX has free parking and admission. 25,000 would be the absolute limit. Sheena Parveen is hot! Should be fun.

They do not have enough tellers or self serve machines to handle the crowd. Lines were long to bet on smarty jones day a few weeks back

[wisconsin]

They do not have enough tellers or self serve machines to handle the crowd. Lines were long to bet on smarty jones day a few weeks back


I was there last year for the same day (Will Take Charge) and it was more than they could handle then and I think maybe 12,000 showed up. Loooooooooong lines at all windows. The top level of the grandstand can handle a large increase, but there will be silly lines to bet. The first floor from lobby to track, forget about it...and then there is that 2 sided paddock. Will be crazy to get close.

[proximity]

Sheena Parveen is hot!

the stone cold nuts and definitive proof of god!!:jump: :jump: :jump:

[thespaah]

they might have free parking, but they are charging me $350 for a table!
Table for how many people?

[Racey]

Will still be heard with 20k attending ...lol the guy is brutal

[NY BRED]

forget the cost of the table in the dining room.

Best tables are about 100 feet from the track, namely a real CASINO

Better to lose trying to win, then spend about 400.00
for a "gourmet" lunch.

[Tom]

they might have free parking, but they are charging me $350 for a table!

Did you take it home with you?

[horses4courses]

Looks like Bayern is a go :ThmbUp:

David Grening ‏@DRFGrening 26m
Bayern now committed to Pa Derby after working strong 3-4s today at Santa Anita, per Baffert. (Clockers credited him 5-8ths in 58.60)

[Redboard]

Looks like Bayern is a go :ThmbUp:
That good news and makes the race more interesting from a handicapping perspective. Ilm not complaining, but I am surprised because I seem to remember Baffert blaming the short rest for his dismal performance in the Travers, and now he's bring him back with even shorter rest? I suspect the $50k bonus for the Haskell winner had something to do with it.

[Rise Over Run]

Will still be heard with 20k attending ...lol the guy is brutal
He's awful; the worst. I heard him talking to others this afternoon and he's planning on showing up early on Saturday to make sure he gets his usual table in the bar area. Good luck.

[Racey]

screams at every stretch call...Get to the wire....somebody run .....wire wire wire. I see him every Saturday screaming like an idiot. I think I will go outside and stare at Sheena Parveen all day... :D

[Thebigguy]

Looks like Bayern is a go :ThmbUp:


I think he jogs or its something crazy like Noble Moon. Noble Moon is OK and ran really well in the Kings Bishop.
I dont like California Chrome at all in this spot.

[horses4courses]

I think he jogs or its something crazy like Noble Moon. Noble Moon is OK and ran really well in the Kings Bishop.
I dont like California Chrome at all in this spot.

Looks like a fair number of trainers, including Baffert, agree with you.

Chrome's last couple of works at Los Al have not been great.
There may be big races left in this horse, but I'll wager that
it won't be next weekend in Philadelphia.

[Rex Phinney]

That good news and makes the race more interesting from a handicapping perspective. Ilm not complaining, but I am surprised because I seem to remember Baffert blaming the short rest for his dismal performance in the Travers, and now he's bring him back with even shorter rest? I suspect the $50k bonus for the Haskell winner had something to do with it.

This horse has really had quite a campaign from a travel perspective. He should be getting frequent flyer miles at this point.

He ran the Derby Trial, Preakness and then on Belmont Day. That's 3 races in 6 weeks, before that he had already shipped to Arkansas and back home. After Belmont day he comes home then back east for the Haskell, home, then back east for the Travers, home, now back east for the Penn Derby.

He has IMO Breeders Cup sprint or dirt mile winning stuff, problem is, I just don't know what he is going to have left in the tank by then.

[Rex Phinney]

I think this might be a little of a tough spot to come back. They should have had him ready for the Del Mar Derby 3 weeks ago, nice little stakes race just to get a race into him and if he looked good there go ahead and shoot for Pennsylvania.

As it is now you are going over an unknown track with a horse who hasn't raced in 3.5 months against a pretty nice $1,000,000 field.

I like the horse alot and respect his wins, but a real horseplayer has to be looking at this race and just licking his chops to take some of that $$$ from the casual fans.

[taxicab]

The Cotillion is shaping up nicely:
Untapable
Sweet Reason
Stopchargingmaria
Joint Return

[classhandicapper]

Looks like a fair number of trainers, including Baffert, agree with you.

Chrome's last couple of works at Los Al have not been great.
There may be big races left in this horse, but I'll wager that
it won't be next weekend in Philadelphia.


I haven't heard a single positive thing from anyone about how he has been working. The best thing I heard was that he looks like he might be a race short. That was the BEST thing!

I'm no expert at evaluating workouts, but I watched a couple of his workouts. I thought his last one was fine. He didn't look as good to me as he did just before the Belmont (a work that a lot of people raved about), but he looked good to me.

I think he's going to run well. They don't want a peak for this race, but I'm sure they want him sharp. If he gets beat I think it's more likely it will be because he hasn't moved forward since the spring and someone else has moved past him than him not being right or way short.

The bigger question mark to me is Bayern.

He had a bias aided win at Monmouth at 9F in the Haskell and then ran on a dead rail at Saratoga under pressure at 10F in the Travers. I'm still not sure what level this horse will run at on an unbiased track at 9F or if he's even going to fire his A race after that last debacle. He looks more like an all or nothing to me than Chrome.

[Stillriledup]

Calif Chrome Post 1, even money ML.

[Stillriledup]

Bayern Post 4 at 7-2 ML

[senortout]

Just had draw. PP #1

[classhandicapper]

The connections of Chrome should make some public comments about the tendency of PARX to have a dead rail. That should ensure that the track maintenance people are on it.

[camourous]

The connections of Chrome should make some public comments about the tendency of PARX to have a dead rail. That should ensure that the track maintenance people are on it.

Maybe they'll toss another $200,000 grand to him if he wins from the rail

[Stillriledup]

Maybe they'll toss another $200,000 grand to him if he wins from the rail

I'm sure the other jocks will permit him to move off the rail, jocks are good like that, they get out of they way, all you do is have to yell "coming thru" and someone will move over for you. Classy guys those jocks.

[letswastemoney]

I'd watch this race and not bet. Public opinion of Chrome's workouts is skewed by the negative opinions on the owners.

[horses4courses]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmhJ-eIEAA_mTd.jpg

[tophatmert]

Wasn't the rail the place to be last year on Penn derby day.

[Exotic1]

Wasn't the rail the place to be last year on Penn derby day.

It was very much the place to be.

[zico20]

No way Candy Boy goes off 12-1. Him and Tapiture were the same odds in the WV derby and were a nose apart. Who the hell is Protonico. Never heard of him.

[Racey]

from Todd Pletcher barn won the prep for this a few weeks ago

[Racey]

Castellano into ride......hmmmm

[Thebigguy]

Here are my early thoughts on the graded stakes races.

I’m lost in the Gallant Bob. 4 or 5 can win IMO. I need to look at the race more and watch a few more replays.
The Cotillion. Another tough one for me. I want to be against Untapable, but she has multiple races that crush everyone else’s best. I think it is fair to argue that she has peaked already though and she could be tailing off a little bit. Ill use her. One ticket will just be singled/pressed to her, I just can’t totally toss her. That’s more because I don’t believe she is facing much then it is that I am confident in her. If Hushion had sent Artemis Argotera to this spot, I might have singled her…… Anyway Ill back up with Jojo Warrior and House Rules. They are both well connected horses who I believe are moving forward. Price will be fair on both of them. I am totally against Sweet Reason and Stopchargingmaria. Sweet Reason is a 7f-8f one turn horse. There is nothing wrong with that. I can even understand why they are taking a shot in here. If she were to win this she would probably jump ahead of Untapable for the 3yr old filly eclipse award. I just don’t see it and if she wins I lose. Its one thing for her to win a 2 turn race at Aqueduct in the spring its another thing to beat multiple G1 winners going 2 turns in this spot. Stopchargingmaria IMO is even less likely to win then Sweet Reason. Somehow they have got two G1 wins and 1.4million earned out of this filly, with a lifetime best beyer of 94. It’s really incredible and all the props in the world to the connections…. If there are no scratches she should be around 10-1. She will probably be closer to 4-1 because of Repole, Todd and JV. Maybe I’m way off about her maybe she builds off that 94 beyer 2 starts back and moves forward and wins…. If that happens I lose.
The PA Derby. I want no part of California Chrome at all. If he wins, I lose. California Chrome has accomplished a lot on the track. Because Bayern, Wicked Strong and Tonalist did not win the Travers he is still probably the leader for the 3yr old eclipse award. With that being said I think his best races are behind him. He peaked early, nothing wrong with that. I’m going to press Bayern. He has the fastest races and there is not a lot of speed in here. He is probably a miler. Its one thing for a miler to stretch to 9f, that’s doable. It’s another thing for a miler to try going 10f with Tonalist and Wicked Strong coming after you early. I guess CJ’s Awesome could go after him, but I’m not even sure it would matter going 9f @Parx. Im going to back up with Protonico and Noble Moon. They are both lightly raced and I believe there are reasons to like both of them. Protonico has a decent win over the track. On beyer he has moved forward in every race that he has run in this year. He has pressed a hot pace and closed from well off of a hot pace. He ran fine 2 back in the Curlin and obviously VE Day came back to win the Travers. This horse has done nothing wrong this year. He is versatile. Having Javier Castellano does not hurt. Noble Moon, I think Noble Moon is really good. I think he ran really well off the layoff in the Kings Bishop. If you really take this horses races apart you can come to the conclusion that he has never run a bad race in his career. He is going to be 15-1 or more and I think he is sitting on a big race 2nd start back.

[horses4courses]

.On Saturday, California Chrome, who captivated the world with his bid for the Triple Crown, will write a new chapter in his story when he returns to action in the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) at Parx Racing, his first start since the Belmont. Also on the Parx card are two other terrific graded stakes races, including the $1,000,000 Cotillion Stakes (gr. I), in which Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) winner Untapable will try to cement her dominance of the three-year-old filly division. So without further ado, let’s start handicapping this fantastic day of racing!

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2014/09/16/is-california-chrome-vulnerable-in-pennsylvania-derby.aspx#ixzz3DWN0t1mi

[thespaah]

I'm sure the other jocks will permit him to move off the rail, jocks are good like that, they get out of they way, all you do is have to yell "coming thru" and someone will move over for you. Classy guys those jocks.
Aww come on now.....I don't know you but on here. You seem like you'd be a pretty decent guy. But seriously, that was uncalled for.

[thespaah]

Entire card has full fields. Should be a good day at Parx....The only disappointment is there's race on the turf

[cj]

The connections of Chrome should make some public comments about the tendency of PARX to have a dead rail. That should ensure that the track maintenance people are on it.

A quick run of the stats shows the rail post (and the 2 post) do well in routes. 18 / 16%, 1.15 / 0.89 ROI per dollar bet.

[Dark Horse]

Chrome may need a race. Value for him doesn't start at 3/2 or better. Race has negative playing field, so a pass for me.

[taxicab]

I'm starting to think this is a no harm,no foul race for California Chrome.
If he wins it just adds to his resume (and his bankroll).
If he loses he probably gets enough out of the race to have him ready for the Classic.

[castaway01]

I'm starting to think this is a no harm,no foul race for California Chrome.
If he wins it just adds to his resume (and his bankroll).
If he loses he probably gets enough out of the race to have him ready for the Classic.

If he loses badly enough you won't see him in the Classic. I should add to this---my point is that they're not flying cross country and changing the horse's whole schedule for a prep. This is a very big purse and they're coming to win. If something goes wrong and Chrome doesn't fire at all (admittedly unlikely), I think they'd retire him rather than ruin his reputation and chance him get drubbed in the Classic. They're going for the money here though.

[horses4courses]

If he loses badly enough you won't see him in the Classic. I should add to this---my point is that they're not flying cross country and changing the horse's whole schedule for a prep. This is a very big purse and they're coming to win. If something goes wrong and Chrome doesn't fire at all (admittedly unlikely), I think they'd retire him rather than ruin his reputation and chance him get drubbed in the Classic. They're going for the money here though.

Agreed.

I want to see him at least run well here and take his chance in the Classic.
If he doesn't fire, that could be all she wrote.

[taxicab]

If he loses badly enough you won't see him in the Classic. I should add to this---my point is that they're not flying cross country and changing the horse's whole schedule for a prep. This is a very big purse and they're coming to win. If something goes wrong and Chrome doesn't fire at all (admittedly unlikely), I think they'd retire him rather than ruin his reputation and chance him get drubbed in the Classic. They're going for the money here though.
I think he'll win Saturday.
But he doesn't have to win.
He can lose by 5 lengths and still fire big in the Classic.
CC will get some condition out of this race......win/lose/draw.
Sherman hints in this video that CC will be getting alot out of his race in Pa.
Quoting Sherman, "That's what I'm hoping,that we get a good race under him...and that'll help him alot.....it gives me 5 weeks to the Breeders Cup after that(Pa Dy.) so I can do some training...."
It sure sounds like the Breeders Cup Classic is the race Sherman is pointing towards.

http://youtu.be/GbGb70FVlAA

[thespaah]

Weather for Saturday at Parx
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILADELPHIA
930 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014


.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.

[NY BRED]

wonder if Steve will complain about the weather if CC loses.

:lol:

Hope his wife has learned some defensive/karate moves if she is present
and CC doesn't win..
:eek:

[classhandicapper]

A quick run of the stats shows the rail post (and the 2 post) do well in routes. 18 / 16%, 1.15 / 0.89 ROI per dollar bet.

That's interesting because I find a lot of dead rails at that track on the days I have to look up a horse. Maybe it's a huge advantage on the honest days and that more than compensates for when the inside is bad.

[classhandicapper]

Everyone is talking about how Chrome may need a race or be vulnerable. I don't think Untapable is a mortal lock.

She won easily in the Mother Goose, but that was not a stellar field and the race was not particularly fast.

She was very wide on an inside day in the Haskell. So she was probably 2nd best that day. But no one is setting the track on fire coming out of that race either. It may not have been as good a race as is generally thought.

Don't get me wrong. She's clearly the deserving favorite. Someone will have to step up their game to beat her. But I think a case can be made she hasn't been quite as sharp lately as she was earlier in the year in the KY and FG Oaks. If that's the case, the gap between her and the other major contenders may not be insurmountable.

[cj]

Everyone is talking about how Chrome may need a race or be vulnerable. I don't think Untapable is a mortal lock.

She won easily in the Mother Goose, but that was not a stellar field and the race was not particularly fast.

She was very wide on an inside day in the Haskell. So she was probably 2nd best that day. But no one is setting the track on fire coming out of that race either. It may not have been as good a race as is generally thought.

Don't get me wrong. She's clearly the deserving favorite. Someone will have to step up their game to beat her. But I think a case can be made she hasn't been quite as sharp lately as she was earlier in the year in the KY and FG Oaks. If that's the case, the gap between her and the other major contenders may not be insurmountable.

I'd love to hear which horse you are betting against Untapable.

[classhandicapper]

I'd love to hear which horse you are betting against Untapable.


Did I say anything about betting my own money against her? :lol:

If she's not as sharp as she was, I think horses like Sweet Reason, Little Alexis, Jojo Warrior, and Stopchargingmaria are all either close enough to her or lightly raced enough to be considered within range. If she's still as sharp as she was back then, they are not.

How you get value out of that opinion is a mystery. It's probably at best only a 50-50 proposition that she's slipped a little. It would probably take at least a mildly biased surface that would go against her for me to open my wallet.

[ubercapper]

I think the PA Derby came up great. It is the Equibase and ABR weekly feature race. You can read my analysis at the "read the story link" here http://www.equibase.com/free/index.cfm?SAP=TN

Contenders (in preference order):
Protonico
California Chrome
Classic Giacnroll
Tapiture

There are also free pps and other free products available for the race.

Good Luck!

[cj]

Did I say anything about betting my own money against her? :lol:

If she's not as sharp as she was, I think horses like Sweet Reason, Little Alexis, Jojo Warrior, and Stopchargingmaria are all either close enough to her or lightly raced enough to be considered within range. If she's still as sharp as she was back then, they are not.

How you get value out of that opinion is a mystery. It's probably at best only a 50-50 proposition that she's slipped a little. It would probably take at least a mildly biased surface that would go against her for me to open my wallet.

That is what I was getting at? What is the point of the post if there are no valuable alternatives? It is one thing to say a heavy favorite might lose...hell, they all *might* lose. It is another to put a price on that opinion.

[thespaah]

Everyone is talking about how Chrome may need a race or be vulnerable. I don't think Untapable is a mortal lock.

She won easily in the Mother Goose, but that was not a stellar field and the race was not particularly fast.

She was very wide on an inside day in the Haskell. So she was probably 2nd best that day. But no one is setting the track on fire coming out of that race either. It may not have been as good a race as is generally thought.

Don't get me wrong. She's clearly the deserving favorite. Someone will have to step up their game to beat her. But I think a case can be made she hasn't been quite as sharp lately as she was earlier in the year in the KY and FG Oaks. If that's the case, the gap between her and the other major contenders may not be insurmountable.
I think the Haskel trip for Unatappable was a mistake. I could be wrong. I want some value, so I will not be betting Untappable. If she beats me at what is sure to be somewhere around 1-1 thru 7/5, fine....
I am leaning stopchargingmaria....

[cj]

I think the Haskel trip for Unatappable was a mistake. I could be wrong. I want some value, so I will not be betting Untappable. If she beats me at what is sure to be somewhere around 1-1 thru 7/5, fine....
I am leaning stopchargingmaria....

I think she is 3 to 5, 4 to 5 tops, but I'm not playing against her. (on her either)

[classhandicapper]

That is what I was getting at? What is the point of the post if there are no valuable alternatives? It is one thing to say a heavy favorite might lose...hell, they all *might* lose. It is another to put a price on that opinion.

I think she's more vulnerable than most people think, which could open opportunities. She may be 2-5 or 3-5.

Perhaps it makes sense to NOT single her in multi race bets like everyone else and instead use HER as the saver and hope to get a very inflated price because she's way over bet in that pool.

If the track is playing kind to inside or inside speed you could take a stab against her with someone that will get a better trip where normally you would just think she's tons the best and going to win anyway.

That's my thinking going into tomorrow.

I think she's probably going to be over bet even though she's clearly the most likely winner. I'll need a little more than that to pull the trigger against her, but I haven't marked that race off as unplayable because she's in it. She was brilliant for 2 races. I'm not so sure she's still that sharp.

[castaway01]

Untapable is tough to bet against, and I can't get any farther than Sweet Reason or Stopchargingmaria for the upset chances. Then again, if you get 4-1 or 5-1 on those two, that's not a bad deal. Of the two, I prefer the Pletcher horse.

California Chrome may well win but not with my money. Protonico has a win over the track. Yeah, he's a bit slow, but I liked his race at Parx (which is a quirky track) and could see him making the wide Parx turn move to win (unless the rail is somehow good like last year, then scratch that). Candy's Boy would also be on my tickets with an upset shot.

[letswastemoney]

Untapable didn't regress in the Haskell. She ran the same race while facing better horses than the fillies she beat up on.

I wouldn't be surprised if Untapable won by 10 lengths tomorrow.

The only one that might improve enough is Little Alexis, a lightly raced filly that has some upside.

[classhandicapper]

Untapable didn't regress in the Haskell. She ran the same race while facing better horses than the fillies she beat up on.



That's the obvious conclusion until I looked at how the Haskell horses have been running so far. Then the race looks mediocre. All the top horses have disappointed.

Albano lost as the favorite in the Smarty Jones and ran slower.

Wildcat Red lost shortening up to what many people thought was his preferred distance and ran slower.

Just Call Kenny got beat up at 3-1 in the Smarty Jones and ran slower.

At the bottom, Encryption ran well, but that was in a NW1. Medal Count ran well, but that was on a switch to what is probably his preferred surface against weaker.

If you combine this with her slower race in the Mother Goose, you have to at least wonder where her form is right now. Not many 3yo fillies get up to a Beyer 106-107 Beyer and sustain it. Maybe she's only a high 90s or 100 filly now. That makes her the favorite, but it's no cakewalk for a 3-5 shot.

[Rex Phinney]

If we are taking a shot at beating California Chrome, who are you using?

I like Tapiture and Protonico as a winner.

I like Candy Boy to hit the board, and may play him to win if he odds go high enough If Rosario can make him a length better watch out..

I see California Chrome passing up Bayern pretty easy but maybe coming up short holding off a late hcarge, who can mount that charge?

[whodoyoulike]

I'd love to hear which horse you are betting against Untapable.

I have to ask, do you have any connection to C J's Awesome? Ignore the Quoted post, I just wanted to address mine to you.

Thanks.

[cj]

I have to ask, do you have any connection to C J's Awesome? Ignore the Quoted post, I just wanted to address mine to you.

Thanks.

No, not that I know about.

[classhandicapper]

No, not that I know about.

I'll take you over CJ's Awesone in that race. ;)

[whodoyoulike]

No, not that I know about.

I was wondering, if who ever named him might know you. Either way, you've got to put at least $2 on him as the best hunch bet I've seen this week. Hell, I may do this because I was not planning on betting this race.

[Cratos]

If we are taking a shot at beating California Chrome, who are you using?

I like Tapiture and Protonico as a winner.

I like Candy Boy to hit the board, and may play him to win if he odds go high enough If Rosario can make him a length better watch out..

I see California Chrome passing up Bayern pretty easy but maybe coming up short holding off a late hcarge, who can mount that charge?

I believe CC will win this race easily because he outclasses the field and his chief competitor, Bayem is suspect at this class level.

Also the Parx track geometry is very similar to Santa Anita and Del Mar.

[lamboguy]

I believe CC will win this race easily because he outclasses the field and his chief competitor, Bayem is suspect at this class level.

Also the Parx track geometry is very similar to Santa Anita and Del Mar.they both look great on the racetrack. Baffert sent BAYERN to the Cal Lynch barn.

[classhandicapper]

The Tapiture vs. Candy Boy comparison is interesting. Candy boy lost a lot of ground in the WV Derby, but IMO the outside paths were better that day. Tapiture spent some time inside and really took off once he steadied and got outside.

[taxicab]

I'm not a fan of Untapable's company lines or her last race,so I'm interested in the Cotillion.
Joint Return always had talent,but wasn't always focused in her races.
In her last race trainer Servis put blinkers on her and she seemed much more on the muscle.
In that race(Alabama) she was closing nicely against Stopchargingmaria on SCM favorite track.
I like her to turn the tables on SCM in the Cotillion.
I also like her ml{8-1}.
I'll play Joint Return to win.
I'll probably carry the talented Sweet Reason to go two deep on my P-3/4's.
I'll leave Untapable off my tickets.

[Maximillion]

I think she's more vulnerable than most people think, which could open opportunities. She may be 2-5 or 3-5.

Perhaps it makes sense to NOT single her in multi race bets like everyone else and instead use HER as the saver and hope to get a very inflated price because she's way over bet in that pool.

If the track is playing kind to inside or inside speed you could take a stab against her with someone that will get a better trip where normally you would just think she's tons the best and going to win anyway.

That's my thinking going into tomorrow.

I think she's probably going to be over bet even though she's clearly the most likely winner. I'll need a little more than that to pull the trigger against her, but I haven't marked that race off as unplayable because she's in it. She was brilliant for 2 races. I'm not so sure she's still that sharp.

after watching some replays, I actually thought the Haskell may have been her best race.....NOT a favorite i would wanna bet against.

[Tor Ekman]

Joint Return always had talent,but wasn't always focused in her races.
In her last race trainer Servis put blinkers on her and she seemed much more on the muscle.
In that race(Alabama) she was closing nicely against Stopchargingmaria on SCM favorite track.
I like her to turn the tables on SCM in the Cotillion.
I also like her ml{8-1}.
I'll play Joint Return to win.


Shhh, not so loud . . . I'm with you on this angle. :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

The Cotillion is a no bet for me, Untapable is the very likely winner and odds below 1/1 make her unbettable.

The Penn Derby is another story. CC is the M/L fav (but may not be by post time). I have no angst against his connections or any of the crap many are spouting (and negatively biasing themselves against Chrome in so doing) about them. I am looking at the 106 day layoff, with the BC coming up later, and Sherman's rather dismal record of bringing horses back to win after a layoff of greater than 45 days (12.5% wins and only 46% ITM). Yes, they will take a win, if it's an easy one, but I deeply believe that Sherman is pointing this horse towards the BC and thus, we won't see his best today. I have my doubts that he even gets 2nd against these.

Bayern, IMO, gets the lead, unless C J's Awesome wants it worse, in which case Bayern lets him have it, but at a severe cost, as Bayern will sit right on his hip and cause too much energy to be expended by C J's. Bayern has faster early speed than C J's, so he can press hard and still not run his top speed.

But, if Bayern gets a comfortable lead I believe he wins, with C J's laying slightly off him. I think Protonico, while not having the best total velocity among these, will benefit from the early pace and could upset and gain the win. Tapiture is another contender, I suppose, but he just doesn't seem to have the whole game to win this one.

CC gets 3rd at best, IMO. Possibly 2nd if the pace melts down, but don't see that happening. Again, I think he's in this one solely to prep for the BC. But, I have been wrong before! :lol:

[PhantomOnTour]

No love for Cassatt in the Cotillion? Up and comer in great form and getting better all the time.

I don't think I can play the Pa Derby - just don't see any true value.
Protonico won with ease despite the traffic, and may get some of my money if the price is right.
But for now this race is a PASS.

[rastajenk]

Are these on any of the Fox or NBC sports channels? I'm not at home and can't check the on-screen look-aheads.

[cj]

Certainly nothing wrong with the rail at Parx today.

[Clocker]

Free PPs for the two big races HERE. (http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/horse-racing-blog/2014/09/19/pennsylvania-derby-free-bris-pps-analysis/15913123/)

[Stillriledup]

Certainly nothing wrong with the rail at Parx today.

And its usually not so great.

Makes you wonder.

Probably just a coincidence that the rail is good and its a "big day".

[cj]

And its usually not so great.

Makes you wonder.

Probably just a coincidence that the rail is good and its a "big day".

No different than last year.

[raybo]

It is because of this that I did not consider post positions at all in my analysis. I don't think CC's post helps or hinders him. I just don't think he's ready. However, I do think a fast rail will help Bayern, or any other horse who gets a clear early lead.

[AndyC]

It is because of this that I did not consider post positions at all in my analysis. I don't think CC's post helps or hinders him. I just don't think he's ready. However, I do think a fast rail will help Bayern, or any other horse who gets a clear early lead.

Isn't there too much on the line for the owners of CC not to be ready?

[classhandicapper]

No love for Cassatt in the Cotillion?

She working like she's about to step forward a bit. IMO she would have to move forward a great deal. But I'd have to upgrade her further based on what I've seen of the races through the 5th with her speed and inside post.

[classhandicapper]

Isn't there too much on the line for the owners of CC not to be ready?

I think he's ready, but there's a subtle difference between ready and peak.

IMO, the question is whether ready is enough to beat this field on this track today.

[raybo]

Isn't there too much on the line for the owners of CC not to be ready?

Like what?

[classhandicapper]

And its usually not so great.

Makes you wonder.

Probably just a coincidence that the rail is good and its a "big day".

PARX has a pretty strong reputation for bad rails. Even though nothing was said publicly that I heard, it wouldn't sock me if something was said privately and the track maintenance crew was more sensitive to it.

[Stillriledup]

PARX has a pretty strong reputation for bad rails. Even though nothing was said publicly that I heard, it wouldn't sock me if something was said privately and the track maintenance crew was more sensitive to it.

LOL at Race 6

I have every cent i own (not really :D ) against the terribly overbet 6 and he ends up being 3rd best horse in the race, but his jock outrides the other two clowns who get off the rail. :bang:

[ArlJim78]

Like what?
purse money, reputation, enhanced syndication value.
They're not looking for anything less than a win.

[cj]

PARX has a pretty strong reputation for bad rails. Even though nothing was said publicly that I heard, it wouldn't sock me if something was said privately and the track maintenance crew was more sensitive to it.

Don't you remember the big race day last year? Same story.

[classhandicapper]

LOL at Race 6

I have every cent i own (not really :D ) against the terribly overbet 6 and he ends up being 3rd best horse in the race, but his jock outrides the other two clowns who get off the rail. :bang:

I'm just watching the races so far trying to figure out exactly what's going on. I don't know a lot of these horses at PARX. I agree with you though. I thought he was over bet and got a great ride.

[Stillriledup]

I'm just watching the races so far trying to figure out exactly what's going on. I don't know a lot of these horses at PARX. I agree with you though. I thought he was over bet and got a great ride.

Its funny how the jock on the winner knew where to stay and the jocks on the other horses did not. The chick on the 1 botched the ride, that's a speed horse and she had post 1 and wasn't in the 1 path on both turns. If she sends, she wins, that horse raced great despite her.

[cj]

Its funny how the jock on the winner knew where to stay and the jocks on the other horses did not. The chick on the 1 botched the ride, that's a speed horse and she had post 1 and wasn't in the 1 path on both turns. If she sends, she wins, that horse raced great despite her.

That 1 horse didn't get a good ride, but also wasn't really fast enough to make the lead Should have just held the rail and hoped.

[Tom]

Back in the Keystone days, the rail was golden for months at a time.
Flat bet profit blinding betting both the 1 and 2 at every distance.
Exacta boxes 1/2/3 were automatic. We could only bet on Tuesdays, when NYRA was dark, but it was enough to make your week. I used to follow the charts and sigh on days I couldn't get any action down.

[raybo]

purse money, reputation, enhanced syndication value.
They're not looking for anything less than a win.

That equates to no trainer ever entering a horse in a race that he is not expecting to win, does it not? This horse just laid off 106 days, and the trainer pretty much sucks bringing them back over 45 days to win, and shipped from California to Pennsylvania, to run at a track that he has never seen before. Based on that data, I'd say CC's chance of winning is no better than about 1 to 3, or 4/1 odds.

Now, of course, I have no inside information that the trainer might know about CC's condition, that was not available via his workouts since the Belmont. But then, I can't let that color my decision process, Unknown factors are unknown.

[classhandicapper]

It looks to me like the rail is best, the 2 path is not bad, but outside that it's tough to make a wide move on the turn and sustain it. I'd also rather have some speed or be real close. Horses have been passed in the stretch but it feels like in some cases it was a bigger struggle than it should have been.

[Rex Phinney]

I just get the feeling Chrome is here because of the bonus money.

The connections where publicly dragging Del Mar thru the mud over the appearance fee there, they have mentioned running him in Japan for big purse money.

He is coming off a big layoff and going right into the deep end of the pool. Bayern, Tapiture and Candy Boy are no slouches. Throw in Protonico and the variable for the track, and this is a great chance to beat CC.

Unless the speed falls apart these next few races I have to try Bayern. I noticed that his workout, travel and running of the Travers all happened over just 4 days. Seems like this time they have given him more time to get ready off his last "Baffert Bullet" work.

[Rex Phinney]

It looks to me like the rail is best, the 2 path is not bad, but outside that it's tough to make a wide move on the turn and sustain it. I'd also rather have some speed or be real close. Horses have been passed in the stretch but it feels like in some cases it was a bigger struggle than it should have been.

Agree 100%, there are no quick flashy blasts to the lead. And definitely noone closing from the back end.

[classhandicapper]

Unless the speed falls apart these next few races I have to try Bayern.

My play coming into the day was to key against Bayern, but with the track like this that idea goes out the window. My feeling is that on a neutral track he's a very good sprinter/miler that can get 9F on right track or against the right field. IMO he's not as good as the Haskell, but not as bad at the Travers.

[Rex Phinney]

My play coming into the day was to key against Bayern, but with the track like this that idea goes out the window.

He looked so bad in the Travers, but I just can't get it out of my head that this track is more like MTH than SAR. He didn't want the 10F and Baffert sent him there almost on a whim. With neither Tonalist or Wicked Strong winning the race, I have to think the Travers was brutal on the front end, harder than it looked.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I'm sure the other jocks will permit him to move off the rail, jocks are good like that, they get out of they way, all you do is have to yell "coming thru" and someone will move over for you. Classy guys those jocks.

I have to agree as Chrome has being along the rail and will fight the jock to get out of that position. The other riders know this and may just use it to box him up early leaving Chrome trying to win against the track bias. The racetrack crew today had to address the dead rail problem and it appears most movement seems easiest along the rail today. I am taking a shot to beat Chrome boxing Bayern, Tapiture and Protonico in the exacta.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

He looked so bad in the Travers, but I just can't get it out of my head that this track is more like MTH than SAR. He didn't want the 10F and Baffert sent him there almost on a whim. With neither Tonalist or Wicked Strong winning the race, I have to think the Travers was brutal on the front end, harder than it looked.
digging into my notes on the Travers, I wrote "track bias had a noticeable dead rail path". As my memory serves me, Bayern was racing against bias and took on a lot of pressure in that race. I do believe today's surface will be Monmouth Park like and not like the Spa.

[classhandicapper]

digging into my notes on the Travers, I wrote "track bias had a noticeable dead rail path". As my memory serves me, Bayern was racing against bias and took on a lot of pressure in that race..

Exactly.

Saratoga was not particularly kind to speed or the inside that day and he was inside, speed, going 10F and wound up under pressure. He was easiest kind of toss imaginable that day, especially coming off an inside speed track at Monmouth.

His real ability is somewhere between those 2 points.

[cj]

Think Chrome has enough speed to keep Bayern honest.

[raybo]

Yeah, I'm ignoring the Travers result, just not the race to be running Bayern in, at the time. That would tend to make me think that he'll be even better than most think in this race. But, anything can happen in racing, as we all know. I am afraid that his odds may drop significantly from the M/L so he may not even be worth betting. If I can't get 5/2 on Bayern I wouldn't bet anybody in this race, and if he is 5/2 or higher I would bet all 3 of my contenders: Bayern, Protonico, and C J's Awesome.

[raybo]

Think Chrome has enough speed to keep Bayern honest.

In that case I don't see either winning. But, I have CC almost a full foot per second slower than Bayern to the first call, which is about 5 lengths. That's not insignificant.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I can't recall any winner at 6f beating this time. Anyone know the track record at this distance happens to be at Prx? Attached is the screen shot taken after the line...

[Rex Phinney]

In that case I don't see either winning.

I agree, Chrome is the only one who can run with Bayern if he wants. But if he does, they are both finished. In April or May I could have seen Chrome pulling that off, but not off a layoff like this.

[castaway01]

I can't recall any winner at 6f beating this time. Anyone know the track record at this distance happens to be at Prx? ..

1:07 2/5

[classhandicapper]

I guess today was the wrong day to take blinkers off Fast Anna.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I can't recall any winner at 6f beating this time. Anyone know the track record at this distance happens to be at Prx? Attached is the screen shot taken after the line...
Missed the track record by a tick..

http://www.thoroughbredink.com/TrackRecordsPhiladelphia.html

[camourous]

I guess today was the wrong day to take blinkers off Fast Anna.

Think Irad was used to the riders in NY who all wouldve grabbed their horses and let him get away with a 47 second half.

[raybo]

I agree, Chrome is the only one who can run with Bayern if he wants. But if he does, they are both finished. In April or May I could have seen Chrome pulling that off, but not off a layoff like this.

Actually C J's Awesome is only 0.12 feet per second slower than Bayern to the first call, and is an E8 horse, so he definitely could make it tough on Bayern, but will also sabotage his own chances in doing so.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

1:07 2/5
thank you. guess the link I found was outdated..

[castaway01]

thank you. guess the link I found was outdated..

Equibase has Royal Currier at 1:07 2/5 on September 24, 2011.

The 1:08 today was extremely fast though.

Parx Track Records (https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTrackRecords.cfm?trk=PRX&cy=USA)

[Rex Phinney]

Baffert have to be licking their chops seeing that. The favorite came with a nice move on the turn but it just didn't matter.

[raybo]

I can't recall any winner at 6f beating this time. Anyone know the track record at this distance happens to be at Prx? Attached is the screen shot taken after the line...

Yeah, he was tough. I had him as the 2nd ranked velocity horse in all 3 fractional segments. That's hard to beat in a short race.

[woodtoo]

Really like :2: Sweet Reason today, box with :3: :6:

[raybo]

Really like :2: Sweet Reason today, box with :3: :6:

Trainer sucks on 45+ day layoffs (13.5% win and 32.4% ITM). 3 and 6 can get 2nd though (3 could actually win if everything goes her way and Untapable has an off day)

[woodtoo]

Trainer sucks on 45+ day layoffs (13.5% win and 32.4% ITM). 3 and 6 can get 2nd though (3 could actually win if everything goes her way and Untapable has an off day)
True, hopefully SR fits in that 13.5% :D

[cutchemist42]

Doing a DD across the Cot/Derb

:4: :8: // :4: :7:

[AndyC]

I think he's ready, but there's a subtle difference between ready and peak.

IMO, the question is whether ready is enough to beat this field on this track today.

I don't think a trainer ever knows for sure whether a horse is at its peak. I don't know whether or not CC is good enough to win this race but I believe he is fit and ready to run.

If I were an owner of CC I wouldn't want to tarnish my horse's reputation.

[Redboard]

Trainer sucks on 45+ day layoffs (13.5% win and 32.4% ITM). 3 and 6 can get 2nd though (3 could actually win if everything goes her way and Untapable has an off day)
Doesnt do well sprint to route either, 0 for 21.

[Tom]

Cotillion - I don't see Tap getting bet here.


:8: / :7:

[Tee]

:7: JoJo Warrior

Let's see what the rail horse does to/for her.

[raybo]

Cotillion - I don't see Tap getting bet here.


:8: / :7:

I assume you meant "beat" not "bet", and I agree.

[letswastemoney]

Uninspiring win for Untapable, but still a win. Now we can say a horse coming out of the Haskell won something.

[raybo]

True, hopefully SR fits in that 13.5% :D

Well, she did get 2nd!

[cj]

Uninspiring win for Untapable, but still a win. Now we can say a horse coming out of the Haskell won something.

Think the track had something to do with the win looking "uninspiring". The rail is gold, she never sniffed it.

[classhandicapper]

I would say it went about as well for her as it could given the way the track is playing. The speeds went at it a little and opened a nice gap for her to get good position instead of getting hung way outside.

Sweet Reason was the only horse inside in a position to get to her, but when she swung out 4W that was it. Had Ortiz stayed inside and somehow found a way through, it would have been a lot more interesting. She wasn't going to rally outside her and pick her up on this track.

It was a good effort for her, but I still don't think she's as sharp as she was earlier this year. This was not a really strong Cotillion and her trip against the grain was not that bad.

[raybo]

Think the track had something to do with the win looking "uninspiring". The rail is gold, she never sniffed it.

You beat me to it. If the rail is indeed fast, Untapable overcame it. So, that "uninspiring" may indeed be better than that.

[woodtoo]

Going with :7: Tapiture,another 49 days off :rolleyes: with :2: :4:

[Tom]

I assume you meant "beat" not "bet", and I agree.
I left myself an out if she lost! :D

[jettroofer]

Candy Boy

[Tee]

I keep looking at :5: Noble Moon for some reason.

Should be a fun one to watch!! - Maybe not :sleeping:

[raybo]

Bayern easily.

[TheEdge07]

24

race over

California Chrome looked tired..

didnt know they play grab and hold at Parx

[menifee]

Victor has not learned that CC does not like to be inside of horses getting dirt in his face. Why he refuses to send this horse to the lead when he breaks sharp is beyond me.

[classhandicapper]

Bayern probably has the most misleading set of PPs I have ever seen in my life. He's either had everything his own way or a bunch of things against him in practically every race other than Woody Stephens at 7F.

[cutchemist42]

Victor has not learned that CC does not like to be inside of horses getting dirt in his face. Why he refuses to send this horse to the lead when he breaks sharp is beyond me.

Yep, he's gotta stop putting CC into this position.

[Tom]

CC looked less than average.
How good does a crap race like this set him up for the BC?
The only way I see him getting tight enough between now and then is breeze him back to California. :D

[raybo]

I still think this was a prep for CC. The jock even said he didn't want to "override" him today. The problem is they thought the race would be easier than it was. I never had that misconception. Bayern looked great! New track record, granted he was on the rail, but still----

[TheEdge07]

CC looked less than average.
How good does a crap race like this set him up for the BC?
The only way I see him getting tight enough between now and then is breeze him back to California. :D

Victor said will see a different horse in the BC..Maybe he doesnt know Shared belief is running in the same race.:D

[Clocker]

How good does a crap race like this set him up for the BC?


You don't think paying a $6k entry fee for a tune up is a good idea?

[raybo]

CC looked less than average.
How good does a crap race like this set him up for the BC?
The only way I see him getting tight enough between now and then is breeze him back to California. :D

Excuse me? "Crap race"? Look at the fractions and you won't see a crap race, not for 9f. The fact was that Bayern ran his race and got the clear lead he needed, the rest was pretty much decided if that happened. Just because the fractions weren't scalding hot, that doesn't make it a crap race.

Regarding CC not getting a good prep, I think the horse just was not as good as the connections thought he was, form wise, and they expected to outclass these without putting him all out. Heck, even all out he doesn't win this race. He wasn't ready, bottom line IMO, and may not even run in the BC. Don't be surprised if he comes out with something wrong with him.

[classhandicapper]

Victor has not learned that CC does not like to be inside of horses getting dirt in his face. Why he refuses to send this horse to the lead when he breaks sharp is beyond me.

He was in a predicament no matter what he did.

He never runs well inside, but there was really nothing he could do other than gun or sit and hope he would be comfortable inside today. I'm not so sure it would have worked out so well if he gunned with Bayern in the race anyway. He's not as fast as Bayern.

They had him kind of pinned in there, but had he gotten outside he might have been 3W outside CJ's Awesome and that was not good either.

[raybo]

Victor said will see a different horse in the BC..Maybe he doesnt know Shared belief is running in the same race.:D

Even though CC likely will gain conditioning from this race, I don't hold much hope of his winning the Classic, if he even runs after this performance.

[menifee]

Excuse me? "Crap race"? Look at the fractions and you won't see a crap race, not for 9f. The fact was that Bayern ran his race and got the clear lead he needed, the rest was pretty much decided if that happened. Just because the fractions weren't scalding hot, that doesn't make it a crap race.

Only Tom could call a race where a horse set a track record a "crap" race.

[menifee]

He was in a predicament no matter what he did.

He never runs well inside, but there was really nothing he could do other than gun or sit and hope he would be comfortable inside today. I'm not so sure it would have worked out so well if he gunned with Bayern in the race anyway. He's not as fast as Bayern.

They had him kind of pinned in there, but had he gotten outside he might have been 3W outside CJ's Awesome and that was not good either.

Bayern ran a 24 first quarter which is ridiculously slow for that track. The race was over at that point. He needed to send CC and hold his position at the rail. The horse broke beautiful and then he grabs the reigns. I don't understand why they think he runs better with a target. They need to watch the San Felipe again.

[Speed Figure]

Only Tom could call a race where a horse set a track record a "crap" race.
Sounds like he's saying CC ran a crap race.

[cj]

Bayern ran a 24 first quarter which is ridiculously slow for that track. The race was over at that point. He needed to send CC and hold his position at the rail. The horse broke beautiful and then he grabs the reigns. I don't understand why they think he runs better with a target. They need to watch the San Felipe again.


Come on, he wasn't winning in any case. He didn't have the horse today. It isn't like he finished 3rd beaten a length and a half. C J's Awesome beat him.

[letswastemoney]

I wonder why :1: is the favorite in the last race lol

[mostpost]

We know that California Chrome doesn't like to race inside and behind horses. We know that Bayern is a monster if he is not challenged and considerably less than a monster if he is. Shouldn't somebody have told Espinoza that. First quarter in 24 and the half in 47.8. CC should have been on the lead. He should have kept Bayern outside. A very poor job of race riding.

[cj]

Excuse me? "Crap race"? Look at the fractions and you won't see a crap race, not for 9f. The fact was that Bayern ran his race and got the clear lead he needed, the rest was pretty much decided if that happened. Just because the fractions weren't scalding hot, that doesn't make it a crap race.

Regarding CC not getting a good prep, I think the horse just was not as good as the connections thought he was, form wise, and they expected to outclass these without putting him all out. Heck, even all out he doesn't win this race. He wasn't ready, bottom line IMO, and may not even run in the BC. Don't be surprised if he comes out with something wrong with him.

I think he meant a crap race for California Chrome, not the whole race in general.

[TheEdge07]

Great line on twitter

CC is the kid who got his growth spurt and a mustache at 12 yrs old.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think this was a good enough effort to think CC has a huge shot in the Classic at 10F even if you think he was short or uncomfortable inside. He looks like a horse that peaked in the early spring after a huge move forward. We've probably seen the best (or close to the best) of him that we are ever going to see.

The thing that bummed me is that I liked Tapiture a bit going into the race because he was on the worst part of the track vs. Candy Boy last time out (mentioned earlier in the thread). A lot of people were looking at the nose finish and Candy Boy being wide not realizing that Tapiture actually had the worst of it inside. But I saw no way to play him from the outside on this track. He ran well for second. That horse is slowly coming around again.

[raybo]

Only Tom could call a race where a horse set a track record a "crap" race.

Well, track record or not, 47 and 1:10 in a 9f race isn't crap, maybe not the great, considering the speed on the rail, but certainly not crap.

[pele polo]

Absolute BS how the other riders were too busy playing defense by keeping Chrome stuck in rail that they let Bayern walk away with this one.

I'm still not overly impressed with Bayern.he has distance limitation and has showed some phoniness.

Not sure Espinoza even had the horse today to challenge Bayern on lead.

[raybo]

Sounds like he's saying CC ran a crap race.

Well, you don't find out if the horse runs like crap unless you run him.

[mostpost]

Come on, he wasn't winning in any case. He didn't have the horse today. It isn't like he finished 3rd beaten a length and a half. C J's Awesome beat him.
Menifee is right, which means you are wrong; but I won't say that. I think when California Chrome is boxed in like that he gets so stressed that he uses up all his energy. That is why he faded late. If he is in front or on the outside he is running relaxed and would have plenty of reserves for the stretch.

He was in perfect position if Espinosa had just let him run.

[classhandicapper]

Absolute BS how the other riders were too busy playing defense by keeping Chrome stuck in rail that they let Bayern walk away with this one.

I'm still not overly impressed with Bayern.he has distance limitation and has showed some phoniness.

Not sure Espinoza even had the horse today to challenge Bayern on lead.

All you can do is hope they send him to the Classic (which they won't). He's a really fast sprinter/miler. He can put up huge figures going long when he gets his own way. On an honest track with quality pressure going long I think he'll prove to be more ordinary. I saw nothing today that changed my view on him. You file it away and wait to make a play against him eventually.

[cj]

Menifee is right, which means you are wrong; but I won't say that. I think when California Chrome is boxed in like that he gets so stressed that he uses up all his energy. That is why he faded late. If he is in front or on the outside he is running relaxed and would have plenty of reserves for the stretch.

He was in perfect position if Espinosa had just let him run.

OK, but I still get to keep all the money, right?

Maybe he doesn't like running inside, that is fine. But if he tries to go wire to wire against Bayern, he might finish last. If he moves off the rail to the outside, he gives up the golden rail that was pretty apparent today. I don't think either of those options was putting him in the winner's circle.

[ArlJim78]

Didn't see the race so I don't know what transpired, but knowing that CC finished off the board I think you have seen his last race.

[TheEdge07]

Any word from the CC owners...:rolleyes:

Maybe he felt only horses who ran in the triple crown races shouldve showned up in the PA Derby..just sayin:rolleyes:

[Dark Horse]

Only Tom could call a race where a horse set a track record a "crap" race.

A track record that stood for 40 years.

[raybo]

OK, but I still get to keep all the money, right?

Maybe he doesn't like running inside, that is fine. But if he tries to go wire to wire against Bayern, he might finish last. If he moves off the rail to the outside, he gives up the golden rail that was pretty apparent today. I don't think either of those options was putting him in the winner's circle.

I agree, he wasn't going to win this race unless several horses fell down, and maybe not even then. He had the rail, where he could save lots of energy, and yet he faded badly. I don't buy the "he doesn't like the rail" stuff, he just couldn't run his best today. Maybe, if he comes out of the race ok, and they actually run in the BC, maybe then he acquits himself better, but I find it hard to imagine him winning it.

[Tor Ekman]

Great line on twitter

CC is the kid who got his growth spurt and a mustache at 12 yrs old.
+1 :ThmbUp:

[TheEdge07]

CJ-OK, but I still get to keep all the money, right?

Classic...:lol: :lol:

[Dark Horse]

Bayern, Chrome, Shared Belief.

Who said California racing was dead?

Can't wait for the Breeder's Cup.

[classhandicapper]

Maybe he doesn't like running inside, that is fine. But if he tries to go wire to wire against Bayern, he might finish last. If he moves off the rail to the outside, he gives up the golden rail that was pretty apparent today. I don't think either of those options was putting him in the winner's circle.

That's the way I see it.

In all honestly, when I woke up this morning my intention was to key on Tapiture in the exacta and tri and key against Bayern as the 2nd choice in at least the exacta. I was neutral on CC and would have used him to save.

When I saw the way the track was playing I knew I couldn't play Tapiture because I saw no way for him to work out a good trip from outside. I also became more negative against CC. It's well know he doesn't like to be inside horses and the only alternative was to be outside horses on the worse part of track. It was a predicament.

I did not bet the race because it's hard for me to mentally do a 180 and get on the horse (Bayern) I intended to key against because of the track, but I suspected that after the race I would be kicking myself for that particular mental flaw.

[Tor Ekman]

Absolute BS how the other riders were too busy playing defense by keeping Chrome stuck in rail that they let Bayern walk away with this one.

I'm still not overly impressed with Bayern.he has distance limitation and has showed some phoniness.

Is that you, Steve?

[classhandicapper]

Great line on twitter

CC is the kid who got his growth spurt and a mustache at 12 yrs old.

Yea, that what I was kind of saying in another post.

He moved forward so much in the spring from his very early form, you had to think he could easily be close to the end of the line. But his good form was pretty good. So if he ran to it and the track was honest it wasn't like he was a toss today.

[Robert Fischer]

That was such a hard race to bet to win in my opinion.

California Chrome was that huge underlay, but Bayern has not been reliable enough to invest in with confidence.

I believe that the race required dutching Tapiture and Bayern.

[Grits]

Not sure Espinoza even had the horse today to challenge Bayern on lead.

He surely may not have had, off such a layoff. Still, one doesn't ship their horse cross country anticipating no better than 6th. Chrome's got a lot to do IF he's going to make the Classic. He was up against it--an ambitious spot, no doubt, with Bayern on the front end.

[classhandicapper]

I'm calling that track "GR+2P S" in my notes.

That's short for being on the rail moved horses up, you could still run your race in the 2 path (especially stalking), and speed was more favorable than the typical dirt track on the typical day.

[Clocker]

OK, but I still get to keep all the money, right?

You can keep the money but you have to feel guilty about it for taking advantage of a stressed out horse.

[horses4courses]

Still, one doesn't ship their horse cross country anticipating no better than 6th.

Wasn't there something about $50K appearance money for CC's connections?
They really are milking this for all it's worth, and it's worn thin.

Now, they have a talented Derby/Preakness winner
who is very likely past his prime.

One more race?
I'd say it's 50/50 that he makes the Classic.
After that?
Who knows.....

[mostpost]

OK, but I still get to keep all the money, right?
Sure, why not. None of it was my money anyway. The point is that Espinoza rode Chrome in the way that gave him the least chance to win and that gave Bayern the best chance to win. Why would you do that?

I was remiss in not giving Bayern credit for running a great race, but would he have done so if he had been challenged early?

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I had the right idea thinking that the jockeys would try to keep Espinosa and California Chrome along the rail and one jockey did (racing his horse against track bias). Problem I had was that I loved and keyed on Javier Castellano (who happened to be the jockey locking in Espinosa).

The second thing that surprised me today was what the track crew did to turn a dead rail into a launching pad.

Now it is time to turn the page.

[raybo]

I was remiss in not giving Bayern credit for running a great race, but would he have done so if he had been challenged early?

How early, in the first 2 furlongs? Actually he was challenged a bit later but kept his cool, and the rail. If anyone would have really challenged him earlier he might not have won, but neither would the horse(s) that challenged him. Do you think he would have just folded if challenged? No, he wouldn't and he would probably have given up the lead, only to press the leader(s) and force the pace even faster. That would have been doom for anyone close at that point.

If you were looking for a pace meltdown, you picked the wrong field.

[horses4courses]

I'll venture this.

You could have put the jockey of your choice on CC today,
and he still would have finished no better than fourth.

Espinoza is used to the fully tuned up version.
In the spring, that horse dusts this field.
That's not the same horse he was riding today.

Can Art Sherman get Chrome back to his best by the Classic?
Possible, but highly unlikely.

[raybo]

I'll venture this.

You could have put the jockey of your choice on CC today,
and he still would have finished no better than fourth.

Espinoza is used to the fully tuned up version.
In the spring, that horse dusts this field.
That's not the same horse he was riding today.

Can Art Sherman get Chrome back to his best by the Classic?
Possible, but highly unlikely.

Agree, it didn't make any difference who was riding CC, and it didn't matter if he was on the rail, he wasn't going to be a threat late, no matter what.

[Tom]

Excuse me? "Crap race"? Look at the fractions and you won't see a crap race, not for 9f. The fact was that Bayern ran his race and got the clear lead he needed, the rest was pretty much decided if that happened. Just because the fractions weren't scalding hot, that doesn't make it a crap race.

Regarding CC not getting a good prep, I think the horse just was not as good as the connections thought he was, form wise, and they expected to outclass these without putting him all out. Heck, even all out he doesn't win this race. He wasn't ready, bottom line IMO, and may not even run in the BC. Don't be surprised if he comes out with something wrong with him.

That is exactly what I was saying. HE ran a crap race.

[raybo]

That is exactly what I was saying. HE ran a crap race.

Ok, but they wanted to find out where he was in his conditioning. He got a good mile in, that should help him, if he is sound coming out. They folded when they knew he wasn't ready, so until that time he didn't run too crappy.

[taxicab]

There were zero excuses for CC today.
He wasn't good.
He didn't have any interest in running.
Now you have to wonder about the BC Classic.
If you like him,you'll get a good price.
Over the top.
Or not over the top.......that is the question.

[cj]

W9YW_IeEKYk

[cj]

Sure, why not. None of it was my money anyway. The point is that Espinoza rode Chrome in the way that gave him the least chance to win and that gave Bayern the best chance to win. Why would you do that?

I was remiss in not giving Bayern credit for running a great race, but would he have done so if he had been challenged early?

The Chrome I saw today wasn't really capable of challenging Bayern.

[Tor Ekman]

If CC's owner had to take an elevator after the race, I hope he wasn't alone with the Mrs.

[Robert Fischer]

Does this make Tonalist's effort in the Travers look a slightly better than it looked when taken literally?

Maybe it makes V.E. Day's effort look a little closer to Tonalist's?

tough to say.

Not only do track weights play a role but Bayern seems to have some variance in his performance levels.

[raybo]

If CC's owner had to take an elevator after the race, I hope he wasn't alone with the Mrs.

Likely he'll say the race was a prep for the BC and they just wanted to get some racing in him. That's what I would say anyway.

[Stillriledup]

If CC's owner had to take an elevator after the race, I hope he wasn't alone with the Mrs.

Nobody sharp bet on Calif Chrome with that jock, from that post in that race at 4-5. If the owner knew someone sharp, (and they talked to him about the race) he would have known he was in a tough position at an unfamiliar track without having trained over the surface. Lots to NOT like about that horse at the price from a handicapping standpoint, he was a great "bet against" as an overwhelming chalk.

[Rex Phinney]

I'd say this was the Haskell version 2.0 but really California Chrome was easier to bet against than Untapable was.

Everyone hating on Bayern get a life. So he isn't going to win any marathons anytime soon, big deal. Betting him today was the smart play. The rare time when a good bettor gets to take money from people who can't leave their heart out of it.

[raybo]

I'd say this was the Haskell version 2.0 but really California Chrome was easier to bet against than Untapable was.

Everyone hating in Bayern get a life. So he isn't going to win any marathons anytime soon, big deal. Betting him today was the smart play. The rare time when a good bettor gets to take money from people who can't leave their heart out of it.

Yeah, you either recognized that this race was Bayern's to win or lose, or you didn't. About the only way he was going to lose, aside from him not getting out of the gate, or getting knocked around, or not wanting to run at all, was if he was forced to run blindingly fast fractions, and even then I doubt he would have run them, he would more than likely have let the pressure sit in the pressure cooker and exerted himself when that one started fading.

[Grits]

No one here at PA has trouble leaving their heart out of anything @ 4-5. Too, "hating" on Bayern? Where? That's sorta silly.

[Tor Ekman]

The people I've known from Philly are devoid of hearts

[Grits]

Wasn't there something about $50K appearance money for CC's connections?
They really are milking this for all it's worth, and it's worn thin.

Now, they have a talented Derby/Preakness winner
who is very likely past his prime.

One more race?
I'd say it's 50/50 that he makes the Classic.
After that?
Who knows.....

H4C, there may well have been. I don't pay any attention to Parx except this one day, each year. The 50K, who knows, might be their last paycheck. We'll just have to wait and see. Chrome may have liked being turned out in rural SoCal.

[Dark Horse]

I thought that the concept of needing a race was widely understood, but it looks like a lot of folks are already writing CC off after today. Could spell value for the Classic.

Just a great effort by Bayern. I read that Bayern was very angry after his last race. Some might consider that significant for a competitive horse. It didn't hurt that the only other speed in the race seemed more interested in keeping CC boxed in.

[Rex Phinney]

No one here at PA has trouble leaving their heart out of anything @ 4-5. Too, "hating" on Bayern? Where? That's sorta silly.

I saw a few posts from people blaming Espinoza. Anyone doing that is not in touch with reality. Espinoza had no horse. To blame him is probably someone reaching with their heart.

I also see posts of people saying Bayern can't win with honest fractions or saying he only won because the other jocks were too busy wrecking Chrome's chances. That's nonsense. Credit where it is due Bayern has won big races 3 of his last 4 tries.

[Tor Ekman]

I read that Bayern was very angry after his last race. Some might consider that significant for a competitive horse.I hate to break this to you, but only "My Little Ponies" are capable of human emotions such as anger.

[MOG4023]

He surely may not have had, off such a layoff. Still, one doesn't ship their horse cross country anticipating no better than 6th. Chrome's got a lot to do IF he's going to make the Classic. He was up against it--an ambitious spot, no doubt, with Bayern on the front end.

The owners/trainer of CC received $200k so long as the horse left the starting gate.
$50k each for the Derby & $50k each for the Preakness.

One would think that an 1 1/16 AlwOptClm might have suited the horse as a prep. One in California at that. I am sure the racing secretary would have been happy to write a race to suit your needs. Nice 5-6 horse field. Good confidence booster for your horse etc.

But they chose the paid public work out in PA.

[Clocker]

I hate to break this to you, but only "My Little Ponies" are capable of human emotions such as anger.

No, it's true. He was stomping his hooves and throwing straw around, and he had to go to the timeout corner of his stall until he cooled down.

[olddaddy]

I hate to break this to you, but only "My Little Ponies" are capable of human emotions such as anger.


And Mr. Ed.

[Cratos]

I'd say this was the Haskell version 2.0 but really California Chrome was easier to bet against than Untapable was.

Everyone hating on Bayern get a life. So he isn't going to win any marathons anytime soon, big deal. Betting him today was the smart play. The rare time when a good bettor gets to take money from people who can't leave their heart out of it.

I don't believe "everyone" was hating on Bayern, but I do believe the majority of the posters (including myself) favored CC.

I didn't watch the race, but the chart caller's comment that CC was eased in the final 1/16m is not a good sign, especially when he was 3rd at the 1/8m pole.

[Tor Ekman]

And Mr. Ed.Mr. Ed never got angry . . . but he always got even

[olddaddy]

Mr. Ed never got angry . . . but he always got even
Is getting even an emotion? I think so.

[Tor Ekman]

Is getting even an emotion? I think so.indeed it is, and I should have included Ed in my initial post regarding horses capable of human emotions, but, of course , Ed was much more than just a horse . . . Why do you think Wilbur's wife was always so happy?!?

[Dark Horse]

I hate to break this to you, but only "My Little Ponies" are capable of human emotions such as anger.

There's always room to learn, for those so inclined.

[Tor Ekman]

There's always room to learn, for those so inclined.
In that case, I'll go to sleep happy tonight knowing that you learned something.

[classhandicapper]

I love biased tracks because finding them and interpreting how they impacted races throws a monkey wrench into the typical trip analysis. That can lead to good bets because it's not a well understood subject.

I hate biased tracks because then the races don't settle the fun debates people have about miscellaneous horses and how they would have done on an honest track.

[Grits]

The owners/trainer of CC received $200k so long as the horse left the starting gate.
$50k each for the Derby & $50k each for the Preakness.

One would think that an 1 1/16 AlwOptClm might have suited the horse as a prep. One in California at that. I am sure the racing secretary would have been happy to write a race to suit your needs. Nice 5-6 horse field. Good confidence booster for your horse etc.

But they chose the paid public work out in PA.

Thank you for posting. I didn't know Chrome's connections had been given this amount of money.

[classhandicapper]

Does anyone have a head on replay of the Cotillion?


One of my ADWs usually has head ons, but for some reason there is none for that specific race.

[Tom]

And Mr. Ed.
Of course, of course.

[classhandicapper]

Does this make Tonalist's effort in the Travers look a slightly better than it looked when taken literally?

Maybe it makes V.E. Day's effort look a little closer to Tonalist's?

tough to say.

Not only do track weights play a role but Bayern seems to have some variance in his performance levels.

I think it was already clear that both Tonalist and Wicked Strong ran well in the Travers. They were both used to put Bayern away and it cost them.

I'm not so sure how much Bayern's effort today helped verify that.

IMO he caught a favorable bias Haskell day and was up against it in the Travers at 10 furlongs on a track that wasn't friendly to either speed or the inside (along with being pressed). He was eased late when it was over. They were probably similar performances with 2 extremely different sets of conditions.

Now today he caught perfect conditions again and was probably helped further by everyone else being more interested in keeping CC pinned in than they were by what was going on in front of them.

His trip in the Preakness was a nightmare.

In the Derby Trial he spent some time on the inside on a day when most of the riders were avoiding it.

He was rushed into the Arkansas Derby after having some issues.

In his ALW win, the rest of the field had a nightmare trip.

I said it earlier, he has one of the most misleading sets of PPs I've ever seen. There isn't an honest race his PPs other than the Woody Stephens and his first start. The good news for him is that his lucky days came in million dollar races.

[Robert Fischer]

That's a good post Class.

The numbers seem to back up the pace being hot in the Travers as well.

If that is true, there may be some money to be made on using Tonalist somewhere on a ticket. Visually, Tonalist looked like a he was not longer in the upper-echelon of 3yos, down the stretch in the Travers, but this angle would give him a bit of a boost over how the public figures to perceive him.

I thought Bayern looked flat in the Travers and ran out of gas before I expected him to, even with the fast pace. I could certainly be wrong there, and it could speak volumes about Wicked Strong and Tonalist.

I am confident however that Bayern did not fire his "A" race in the Arkansas Derby or Derby Trial races.

Bayern's "A" race is tough to beat, he's also tough to back in a race like the classic with distance and pace-pressure of the Travers. I wouldn't exclude him (like I said, I have doubts that he actually fired his "A" race on Travers day).

I think it was already clear that both Tonalist and Wicked Strong ran well in the Travers. They were both used to put Bayern away and it cost them.

I'm not so sure how much Bayern's effort today helped verify that.

IMO he caught a favorable bias Haskell day and was up against it in the Travers at 10 furlongs on a track that wasn't friendly to either speed or the inside (along with being pressed). He was eased late when it was over. They were probably similar performances with 2 extremely different sets of conditions.

Now today he caught perfect conditions again and was probably helped further by everyone else being more interested in keeping CC pinned in than they were by what was going on in front of them.

His trip in the Preakness was a nightmare.

In the Derby Trial he spent some time on the inside on a day when most of the riders were avoiding it.

He was rushed into the Arkansas Derby after having some issues.

In his ALW win, the rest of the field had a nightmare trip.

I said it earlier, he has one of the most misleading sets of PPs I've ever seen. There isn't an honest race his PPs other than the Woody Stephens and his first start. The good news for him is that his lucky days came in million dollar races.

[letswastemoney]

I've always thought Tonalist's effort was great in the Travers. He had the dirty work of confronting Bayern earlier, while Wicked Strong was able to reserve a bit of energy while still being too close as well.

The same way horses in lower classes get thrown into crazy duels all the time, and it looks bad on paper until they find a race with a moderate pace.

[PhantomOnTour]

So where do you think Bayern goes from here?
Classic or Dirt Mile?

Gotta be the mile for me...Moreno alone is enough to scare me out of entering in the Classic.
I think he would run Bayern into the ground (and maybe himself too).

[raybo]

So where do you think Bayern goes from here?
Classic or Dirt Mile?

Gotta be the mile for me...Moreno alone is enough to scare me out of entering in the Classic.
I think he would run Bayern into the ground (and maybe himself too).

I find it hard to believe that Bayern's connections would enter him at 9f today if they weren't thinking seriously about the Classic. I don't think we have seen Bayern's distance capability yet. Remember he missed the TC, not because he couldn't get in, or his connections didn't think he could handle it.

Either way, the Mile or the Classic, if he's on his game and gets a decent trip he could be tough to beat. Moreno may be faster than Bayern, but I believe that Bayern has shown he can press instead of lead, and still win. He's rated as an E8, but I think he is more versatile than that and can lead or press and still be successful, given he gets a decent trip.

I won't make any hard decisions until I see the race and the field he will face in the BC. But, as of now, he looks pretty dang good to me, and he may be even better by then.

[cj]

Before Game on Dude retired, no chance both would see the Classic. Plan B?

[classhandicapper]

I am confident however that Bayern did not fire his "A" race in the Arkansas Derby or Derby Trial races.



He was rushed into the Arkansas Derby after having some issues because they needed points for the Derby. He was still considered a potential Derby horses at that point. He was probably a bit short.

The Derby Trial was tougher for me to evaluate. Thorograph made it a dead rail and had him inside on the turn, but he did get off it for awhile. In my notes I had it as a tough day to evaluate because a lot of riders were avoiding the rail. That usually means they know the rail is bad, but I didn't have any solid evidence of it. He was probably better than he lookded that day.

[classhandicapper]

So where do you think Bayern goes from here?
Classic or Dirt Mile?

Gotta be the mile for me...Moreno alone is enough to scare me out of entering in the Classic.
I think he would run Bayern into the ground (and maybe himself too).

My nightmare scenario is that he goes into the Classic, I'm planning to make a major bet against him, and the track comes up biased again or Moreno gets scratched etc...

I don't think Baffert really wanted to run him in the Travers. So I don't think he'll want to run in the Classic. But who knows. If he wins the Haskell, Pennsylvania Derby, and BC Classic, beats CC 2-1, and beats Shared Belief he'd have a claim to the title.

[raybo]

Before Game on Dude retired, no chance both would see the Classic. Plan B?

Looks like Bayern to me. Who else does Baffert have that has a better game for the Classic?

[taxicab]

So where do you think Bayern goes from here?
Classic or Dirt Mile?

Gotta be the mile for me...Moreno alone is enough to scare me out of entering in the Classic.
I think he would run Bayern into the ground (and maybe himself too).
Probably the Classic.
The speed favoring SA dirt should help Bayern carry his speed an extra furlong.
And if Bayern wins the Classic he probably earns HOY/3yo Champion.
Baffert is covered in the Dirt Mile with Fed Biz & Declassify.
Throw in Secret Circle in the Sprint & Midnight Lucky in the FM Sprint and Baffert has all his ducks in a row.

[Rex Phinney]

Their Facebook page says the next target is shared belief, so it sounds like the classic.

Assuming Moreno runs there neither has a chance to win.

[PaceAdvantage]

Sure, why not. None of it was my money anyway. The point is that Espinoza rode Chrome in the way that gave him the least chance to win and that gave Bayern the best chance to win. Why would you do that?

I was remiss in not giving Bayern credit for running a great race, but would he have done so if he had been challenged early?How in the world would challenging Bayern early have ever helped Chrome's chances?

At no point in the race did Chrome show ANYTHING in my opinion. I only saw the race once, but it appeared to me that Espinoza was asking Chrome far EARLIER than he should have and he wasn't getting ANYTHING...Victor probably knew very early on he didn't have what he thought he had underneath and was trying to wake him up...

You can say he was boxed in...had nowhere to go...I saw something different...and I know that when a jock has HORSE underneath him, especially in a race like this, he'll find a way out of the box...even if it means risking a DQ...Chrome had nothing today, and going with Bayern early would have simply exposed that exponentially...

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll venture this.

You could have put the jockey of your choice on CC today,
and he still would have finished no better than fourth.

Espinoza is used to the fully tuned up version.
In the spring, that horse dusts this field.
That's not the same horse he was riding today.

Can Art Sherman get Chrome back to his best by the Classic?
Possible, but highly unlikely.I agree completely...

[raybo]

Assuming Moreno runs there neither has a chance to win.

Assuming you mean Moreno and Bayern, I agree about Moreno, if he goes out too fast, but I think Bayern, in that case, will not go with him. Whether or not he will lose advantage by doing so, I'm not sure, I think he is still improving and might give us some more versatility in the future. All I can say is, don't give him a comfortable lead! Moreno looks like a "go for broke" horse early, so likely he goes all out early in the BC, that will be a mistake, for him.

[Rex Phinney]

How in the world would challenging Bayern early have ever helped Chrome's chances?

At no point in the race did Chrome show ANYTHING in my opinion. I only saw the race once, but it appeared to me that Espinoza was asking Chrome far EARLIER than he should have and he wasn't getting ANYTHING...Victor probably knew very early on he didn't have what he thought he had underneath and was trying to wake him up...

You can say he was boxed in...had nowhere to go...I saw something different...and I know that when a jock has HORSE underneath him, especially in a race like this, he'll find a way out of the box...even if it means risking a DQ...Chrome had nothing today, and going with Bayern early would have simply exposed that exponentially...


Agree 100%.

Espinoza was asking him early on the far turn he made a few feet on Bayern and went flat after that. Chrome was short today. He got tired and never showed a single burst of energy.

This race was just way to much of a reach for this horse off this layoff. Several here knew that going in. Others thought we where dealing with a unicorn who can do no wrong.

[Stillriledup]

Sour grapes from Victor making comments that other jocks "didnt ride to win".

Funny, i thought that if a jock rides to specifically beat the most likely winner, he's increasing his chances by definition.

Ironic this coming out of the mouth of a guy who routinely stops riding for minor board spots, one of the worst offenders at not riding thru the wire.

[Dark Horse]

Sour grapes from Victor making comments that other jocks "didnt ride to win".

Funny, i thought that if a jock rides to specifically beat the most likely winner, he's increasing his chances by definition.

Ironic this coming out of the mouth of a guy who routinely stops riding for minor board spots, one of the worst offenders at not riding thru the wire.

Prado took it to another level, slowing down right in front of CC, out of the first turn, after pinning him against the rail. Because of that block, by the only other speed, with Bayern getting away, I thought it was a pretty dirty ride, that did nothing to improve the chances of his 24/1 horse, which was used solely to take out CC, and in fact cheated the bettors who had wagered on CC. That doesn't mean that CC would have won the race. That's a completely different story. He didn't show much, which was to be expected off a long layoff. But for the integrity of horse racing I would liked to have seen Prado at least questioned. If he made that block in the stretch there is no question he's DQ'd. I doubt he did it for free.

[classhandicapper]

There's no doubt Prado and even Castellano at one point rode the race to beat California Chrome.

How are you maximizing your own chances with a speed horse allowing Bayern to go 24 and 47 4/5 on a gold rail speed day?

If you want to win you go for the lead aggressively. If you see Bayern's rider is not going to give it up you back off and stalk. Riders tend to get MORE aggressive on tracks like that, not less.

Espinoza was in a predicament anyway.

It was a gold rail and he believes CC doesn't like racing inside horses. So he had to either gun hard and then get outrun by Bayern, stay in there and hope the horse was comfortable, or try to get out and wind up in the 3 path on the bad part of the track. None of those are good options.

To me the question is how much does racing inside horses really bother this horse.

If not much, then he was horrible yesterday because he was on the gold rail the whole way. If a lot, it's harder to tell what was going on but when he was asked he didn't show much.

[classhandicapper]

Beyer Figures

Untapable 94

Bayern 111

California Chrome 99

I should note that I believe Beyer had the track speeding up for the last 2 races of the day by 5 points. Without that adjustment, Bayern would be a 116 and CC 104. It looked like a reasonable tweak to me.

Utapable raced outside and was clearly better than Sweet Reason and Jo Jo Warrior by more than 1 and 2 lengths respectively. But does anyone still think this is the same horse that was annihilating legitimate Grade 1 filly fields, being compared to Rachel, and running 106 and 107 Beyers in the spring?

She's still very good, but I think she'll have to do better to beat a peak Beholder (if she can recover her best) and to a lesser extent Close Hatches.

[Rex Phinney]

I do still think Untapable is very very good. The 94 number for her IMO is ridiculously low. The speed on the track yesterday was more intense than it looked IMO. Bayern broke a 40 year old track record and beat two good horses with nice races by 5 lengths.

That Untapable was able to pass anything in the stretch at all tells me she is still very good

[letswastemoney]

Beyers aren't supposed to account for track or rail biases though, so I'd think 94 sounds accurate if Untapable was struggling on the worst part of the track.

[Stillriledup]

Prado took it to another level, slowing down right in front of CC, out of the first turn, after pinning him against the rail. Because of that block, by the only other speed, with Bayern getting away, I thought it was a pretty dirty ride, that did nothing to improve the chances of his 24/1 horse, which was used solely to take out CC, and in fact cheated the bettors who had wagered on CC. That doesn't mean that CC would have won the race. That's a completely different story. He didn't show much, which was to be expected off a long layoff. But for the integrity of horse racing I would liked to have seen Prado at least questioned. If he made that block in the stretch there is no question he's DQ'd. I doubt he did it for free.

You're just so used to jocks letting other jocks get their favorite trip that when something like this happens, its seems "dirty" or unusual but in reality, its how jocks should ride.
As far as Bayern getting away, last time he stopped on a dime, so you just have to hope he stops again for no reason.....jocks rode as if CC was a superhorse, but as a bettor who routinely bets against 3-5s, i loved the other jocks making him work for it....when i handicap the race and i see that CC has post 1, part of my handicapping is thinking that if i know CC doesn't like being pinned to the rail, other jocks should know it too....so, when i bet against him, i'm looking to be correct that he might get pinned in, which is what happened and should happen more often to big favorites.

As a jock, you have to think that if CC gets to the outside and is able to stalk with his favorite trip, he wins.

The bettors who wagered on CC should have handicapped like most of us did...knowing that Post 1 means you can get pinned in...if you bet CC, you took a chance with a jock who doesn't know Parx and a horse who hasn't even trained on the surface.

[Rex Phinney]

The way I see it Untapable was in a spot yesterday where just a good horse wouldn't have pulled it off. You've got a speed favoring track, a Baffert speedball in the front and only 8.5 furlongs to make it happen.

Just winning the race makes her plenty good. To hell with the Beyer number.

I think she was maybe 10-12 points behind Bayern, not 17.

I cannot even begin to process how she was 5 points behind Chrome.

[ronsmac]

The way I see it Untapable was in a spot yesterday where just a good horse wouldn't have pulled it off. You've got a speed favoring track, a Baffert speedball in the front and only 8.5 furlongs to make it happen.

Just winning the race makes her plenty good. To hell with the Beyer number.

I think she was maybe 10-12 points behind Bayern, not 17.

I cannot even begin to process how she was 5 points behind Chrome.The time was slow compared to the PA Derby.

[cj]

The time was slow compared to the PA Derby.

Yes, but I personally don't think 8.5 and 9f races at PRX fit neatly into the standard Beyer speed chart.

[raybo]

You're just so used to jocks letting other jocks get their favorite trip that when something like this happens, its seems "dirty" or unusual but in reality, its how jocks should ride.
As far as Bayern getting away, last time he stopped on a dime, so you just have to hope he stops again for no reason.



I pretty much agree. By the time Bayern was "getting away", they were in the stretch already. Being on the rail for CC was almost a given, due to his post and the way the rail was yesterday, so one shouldn't have been surprised that he had a bit of trouble there, he was the one to beat according to many. But, if yesterday's CC had been May, or June's CC he would have had plenty of time to catch Bayern, on a normal Bayern day. Unfortunately, it wasn't a normal Bayern day after he got the comfortable lead. Nobody was going to beat him unless somebody tried to run away, and Bayern got caught up in that battle. Wasn't likely to happen, given the lack of real speed other than Bayern. I know some say that CC could have run with him, but my stuff showed that Bayern's best route speed was significantly better than CC's. If he had tried that, he would have ruined any chance he had to win, early on. As it was, he did have a chance late but had nothing to give. Even if he had been in top shape I'm not sure he could have beaten Bayern, on that day, on that track, regardless of the pace. He was in that race to win it, period, no prepping for the BC, just win this race.

[raybo]

The way I see it Untapable was in a spot yesterday where just a good horse wouldn't have pulled it off. You've got a speed favoring track, a Baffert speedball in the front and only 8.5 furlongs to make it happen.

Just winning the race makes her plenty good. To hell with the Beyer number.

I think she was maybe 10-12 points behind Bayern, not 17.

I cannot even begin to process how she was 5 points behind Chrome.

Well, CC finished 5th in a race that was run in a record time, while Untapable won a race that was not close to record time, and won narrowly. They both experienced trouble, so that is a wash, so you're left with the difference in distances, the raw times, and the variants, from which to judge the difference between the two performances, regarding speed figures.

Now, if you let emotion color your figure making, yeah maybe you think Untapable should have rated closer, or maybe even above CC, because CC faded, but the times are the times, and the variant is the variant.

Has CJ posted his speed figs for those two races yet? If so, where are they listed?

[ronsmac]

Yes, but I personally don't think 8.5 and 9f races at PRX fit neatly into the standard Beyer speed chart.
You may be right,but it was still a pretty big spread. Especially the 36.08 3/8ths vs the 32.34 final 5/16ths that Untappable gained a little less than a length into.

[classhandicapper]

Beyer tweaked the Pennsylvania derby down by 1 point to a 110.

His figures for the Cotillion and Pennsylvania Derby both look pretty solid to me. They fit together nicely with the prior figures of those horses.

I'll have to review the day again to see if he made any other changes, but initially he used a separate variant for the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion. He had the track getting a little faster for the last 2 races. Had he used the same variant, the Cotillion would have been slower.

[Stillriledup]

Beyer tweaked the Pennsylvania derby down by 1 point to a 110.

His figures for the Cotillion and Pennsylvania Derby both look pretty solid to me. They fit together nicely with the prior figures of those horses.

I'll have to review the day again to see if he made any other changes, but initially he used a separate variant for the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion. He had the track getting a little faster for the last 2 races. Had he used the same variant, the Cotillion would have been slower.

But, isn't it possible that he just made the race "Fit" with both horses and never actually determined the track changed, but after the numbers "looked right" it was determined than that the track must have changed?

[classhandicapper]

You may be right,but it was still a pretty big spread. Especially the 36.08 3/8ths vs the 32.34 final 5/16ths that Untappable gained a little less than a length into.

IMO there's almost no way she's as good now as she was in the spring despite being against the grain of the track yesterday. She crushed the KY Oaks field. That was a much deeper and stronger field than the Cotillion. That doesn't mean she can't recover her best form for the Distaff if she wasn't fully cranked yesterday, but IMO her last 3 races have been a notch below where she was back then.

[classhandicapper]

But, isn't it possible that he just made the race "Fit" with both horses and never actually determined the track changed, but after the numbers "looked right" it was determined than that the track must have changed?

That kind of thing is always possible.

I checked the 13th race and it looked like that race also made more sense on his numbers if you concluded the track had sped up for the last 2 races. Let me review this again tomorrow. This morning was a quick pass. If I see anything worthy of comment I'l let you know.

[Rex Phinney]

The time was slow compared to the PA Derby.

Hey I never said the figures for Bayern and Untapable should be the same, I just said I think a 17 point spread is a little much. Bayern set a track record yes, but rewatch the 10th race. The track was BLISTERING fast. Bayern running lights out would be expected. Horses passing to win in the stretch where struggling all day long.

[Stillriledup]

Hey I never said the figures for Bayern and Untapable should be the same, I just said I think a 17 point spread is a little much. Bayern set a track record yes, but rewatch the 10th race. The track was BLISTERING fast. Bayern running lights out would be expected. Horses passing to win in the stretch where struggling all day long.

There was 40 mins to post for the Pa Derby, so maybe the track was watered right after the previous race and dried out a bit and changed the surface?

Just something to think about.

[Rex Phinney]

There was 40 mins to post for the Pa Derby, so maybe the track was watered right after the previous race and dried out a bit and changed the surface?

Just something to think about.

Meh, no matter. I pay little attention to Beyer's anyways. Mainly because they make little sense. Like when a Filly who has won everything under the sun vs. other fillies beats the track bias to take a $1,000,000 G1 race and gets a lower number than a horse who was stalking the leader at the 3/8 pole and completely fell apart to finish 6th in the very next race.

No big deal. I think Untapable is just fine.

[raybo]

Meh, no matter. I pay little attention to Beyer's anyways. Mainly because they make little sense. Like when a Filly who has won everything under the sun vs. other fillies beats the track bias to take a $1,000,000 G1 race and gets a lower number than a horse who was stalking the leader at the 3/8 pole and completely fell apart to finish 6th in the very next race.

No big deal. I think Untapable is just fine.

What horses have done in the past has nothing to do with calculating a speed figure (at least it shouldn't have anything to do with it). And, CC was off the speedy rail when he tried to make his run too, he just had nothing left to give (he was also boxed in most of the race). If you adjust his time by beaten lengths and apply the same variant, or similar, to both horses, I think you'll find that CC's adjusted time warranted a higher speed figure than Untapable. He also was running 9f while Untapable was running only 8.5. I suppose you could adjust Untapable up a point or two, maybe, depending on how the pace differed (although CC was trying to close against a fairly slow pace and should get credit for that when figuring his speed figure), but she still ends up with a lower figure, IMO.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I think it's really easy to allow personal biases to influence subjective judgments, like adjusting speed figures for pace, perceived track speed, path biases, etc., etc., after the fact. Personal biases, like favoring a horse because they have dominated races in the past, should carry no weight in these judgments. It should be all about this race, not previous ones.

I do agree with you that Untapable is just fine, she just wasn't up to her best race Saturday.

[Rex Phinney]

What horses have done in the past has nothing to do with calculating a speed figure (at least it shouldn't have anything to do with it). And, CC was off the speedy rail when he tried to make his run too, he just had nothing left to give (he was also boxed in most of the race). If you adjust his time by beaten lengths and apply the same variant, or similar, to both horses, I think you'll find that CC's adjusted time warranted a higher speed figure than Untapable. He also was running 9f while Untapable was running only 8.5. I suppose you could adjust Untapable up a point or two, maybe, depending on how the pace differed (although CC was trying to close against a fairly slow pace and should get credit for that when figuring his speed figure), but she still ends up with a lower figure, IMO.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but I think it's really easy to allow personal biases to influence subjective judgments, like adjusting speed figures for pace, perceived track speed, path biases, etc., etc., after the fact. Personal biases, like favoring a horse because they have dominated races in the past, should carry no weight in these judgments. It should be all about this race, not previous ones.

I do agree with you that Untapable is just fine, she just wasn't up to her best race Saturday.

I'm not building in any personal biases, I probable like Chrome better than Untapable anyway.

I'm looking at the 10th, 11th and 12th races from PARX and thinking she is the only winner that passed anything. She ran a bigger race than the # shows.

I guess we can agree that if a horse wins a $1,000,000 G1 without being up to her best race, she must be pretty good. Winning on that track Saturday tells me she could deal with a bias on BC day too

[Dark Horse]

You're just so used to jocks letting other jocks get their favorite trip that when something like this happens, its seems "dirty" or unusual but in reality, its how jocks should ride.


I'm used to jocks not throwing away their own chances just to undermine the chances of another.

There were two speeds in the race. One of them was Bayern. The other, who would 'normally' be the biggest threat to Bayern taking a necessary breather, was instead fully engaged in slowing down CC. I don't see how that is in the best interest of the 24/1 speed. Unless...

Given the loud complaints by Baffert about other speeds undermining Game On Dude's chances (he even mentioned it again as reason to retire the gelding), it wouldn't really surprise me if this counter strategy was born in his mind. Take the longshot speed off Bayern and use him instead to bother CC. That second speed was the key to the race. So why did that horse race against his preferred running style, unless that was always the plan? And if it was always the plan, who did it favor? The person that came up with the plan?

[raybo]

I'm not building in any personal biases, I probable like Chrome better than Untapable anyway.

I'm looking at the 10th, 11th and 12th races from PARX and thinking she is the only winner that passed anything. She ran a bigger race than the # shows.

I guess we can agree that if a horse wins a $1,000,000 G1 without being up to her best race, she must be pretty good. Winning on that track Saturday tells me she could deal with a bias on BC day too

I agree, Untapable is a fine horse. I even stated before the race that she shouldn't be bet against, and that I would pass the race due to her low odds. She under-impressed me with her performance that day, but that doesn't mean she is not still a fine horse, and should acquit herself quite well in the BC.

[classhandicapper]

I'm looking at the 10th, 11th and 12th races from PARX and thinking she is the only winner that passed anything. She ran a bigger race than the # shows.

I don't think anyone would dispute that.

The question is whether overcoming a track bias while running a 94 Beyer to win the Cotillion by a length over Sweet Reason (who also moved outside on the turn after being inside for much of the race) and 2 lengths over Jo Jo Warrior (who was used outside to clear Cassatt before getting to the rail) is as good a performance as crushing the quality 12 horse field in the Ky Oaks with a Beyer of 107.

That's the only question I have been asking since before the race.

The question is not whether she's still good.

The question is whether she's as good as she was back then and what the fair odds on her were in the Cotillion and now in the Distaff since her reputation doesn't seem to have taken much of a hit despite 3 straight races that IMO appear to be below that hyped peak.

[horses4courses]

I read that Chrome's connections pocketed $210K for the Philly trip.
$100K bonus twice as a winner of the KY Derby and Preakness,
plus $10K for finishing 6th.

Heck, they had it made as soon as he got in the gate! :faint:

Warren Eves ‏@warrenthebull 5m
California Chrome banked $210,000 4 his Penn Derby trip. $100K each 4 KyDby & Preakness wins. $10K 4 6th.

[tophatmert]

I'm used to jocks not throwing away their own chances just to undermine the chances of another.

There were two speeds in the race. One of them was Bayern. The other, who would 'normally' be the biggest threat to Bayern taking a necessary breather, was instead fully engaged in slowing down CC. I don't see how that is in the best interest of the 24/1 speed. Unless...

Given the loud complaints by Baffert about other speeds undermining Game On Dude's chances (he even mentioned it again as reason to retire the gelding), it wouldn't really surprise me if this counter strategy was born in his mind. Take the longshot speed off Bayern and use him instead to bother CC. That second speed was the key to the race. So why did that horse race against his preferred running style, unless that was always the plan? And if it was always the plan, who did it favor? The person that came up with the plan?
If they planned to go after Bayern early they could not have gotten a worse jockey to do it. Edgar Prado is not good right now and he has been unaggressive for the last 15 years. If the plan was to sit second off of Bayern it was a perfect ride.

[Rex Phinney]

I don't think anyone would dispute that.

The question is whether overcoming a track bias while running a 94 Beyer to win the Cotillion by a length over Sweet Reason (who also moved outside on the turn after being inside for much of the race) and 2 lengths over Jo Jo Warrior (who was used outside to clear Cassatt before getting to the rail) is as good a performance as crushing the quality 12 horse field in the Ky Oaks with a Beyer of 107.

That's the only question I have been asking since before the race.

The question is not whether she's still good.

The question is whether she's as good as she was back then and what the fair odds on her were in the Cotillion and now in the Distaff since her reputation doesn't seem to have taken much of a hit despite 3 straight races that IMO appear to be below that hyped peak.

It's one of those, things where she has lost a step, but if you are 3 steps faster than everyone to start with what does it all mean. LOL

FWIW I didn't bet her at those odds Saturday, I just think she ran better than the number shows.