What would you consider a “bias”?

[Tape Reader]

What would you consider a “bias”?

Hypothetical: You want a number to be printed in the short program at Saratoga that would alert tourist to horses with a bias.

They could be numbered lowest to highest for ease of use for the patron. The top ten biases would be footnoted somewhere in the program.

I’ll start with a make believe: Number 1 PP usually wins in a short race.

Thank you all,

Tape Reader

[Matt Bryan]

Most of what is good about this site, involves fellow handicappers trying to help out fellow handicappers - or, challenge them and/or their ideas.

So, why would we want to "alert tourists"? It's hard enough to make money, particularly at Saratoga. I wish there were more "big" races with dumb money in the pool, because it's often hard to find an edge.....much less focus on making things easy for "tourists".

There's information out there covering biases of all sorts. Let people do their own work.

[horses4courses]

You seldom see biases that are so pronounced you can truly rely on them.
I probably don't look for them as much as I should, or used to,
but I have seen some over the years that raised my eyebrows.

There was one in the late 1980s on the Del Mar dirt track - sprints only -
where the inside was at such a disadvantage for a couple of weeks that
anything with a touch of speed on the outside would kick clear
early and never come close to being caught.
Exactas and tris galore with the outside posts -
took close to a week for the public to catch on, too.

This type of situation is so rare it's like trying to strike gold.
Occasionally, you can latch on to a big bias for a day.
The day that Street Sense won the BC Juvenile at CD comes to mind.
Keeneland's rail was notoriously fruitful when it was dirt.
Oaklawn had periods of the same, but not so much any more.

Patient observation is the key, or subscribing to sources
who might steer you in the right direction.

Good luck!

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Most of what is good about this site, involves fellow handicappers trying to help out fellow handicappers - or, challenge them and/or their ideas.

So, why would we want to "alert tourists"? It's hard enough to make money, particularly at Saratoga. I wish there were more "big" races with dumb money in the pool, because it's often hard to find an edge.....much less focus on making things easy for "tourists".

There's information out there covering biases of all sorts. Let people do their own work.

One could argue that a bias listed in PPs would be vulnerable to some of the glaring mistakes in other PP info, and therefore an opportunity to make hay for the people doing their "own" work. Beyer speed figures impacted the speed cappers, but it hardly destroyed the game. I don't think you have to lose sleep.

It would be difficult to generate a bias automatically, without more extensive info like Trakus. You'd need to calculate it by race, or at least every time the track was harrowed, and have numbers/letters for running style biases as well as paths traveled.

For example, an inside path favoring speed might be something like 1S+, while an outside strong closing bias might be 7C--.

Then, of course, you have to calculate if the bias changed over any portions of the track, or courses, as turf racing introduces more variables. How do you enter a bias where 1st turn was slow inside, backstretch even, far turn inside like a rock, favoring closers, with the crown of the track best through the stretch? :confused:

I wouldn't want that job,

[Stillriledup]

What would you consider a “bias”?

Hypothetical: You want a number to be printed in the short program at Saratoga that would alert tourist to horses with a bias.

They could be numbered lowest to highest for ease of use for the patron. The top ten biases would be footnoted somewhere in the program.

I’ll start with a make believe: Number 1 PP usually wins in a short race.

Thank you all,

Tape Reader

Post positions and bias are different things. If a horse breaking from Post 1 gets away last and circles the field into a speed bias and spins his weels on the worse footing in the middle of the track, his loss would go on the "Stats" on a losing horse from post 1, but what got him beat wasnt being on the rail, it was being in the middle of the track.

The reason post 1s often fair poorly in sprint races is that most horses are "Tweeners" which means they're quick enough to keep up, but not fast enough to get the lead and not slow enough to drop out the back and come around. Its tough being on the rail for some horses, they're pinned in there and can't stretch their legs...that's part of the reason Post 1s aren't so great at certain distances at certain tracks...that has nothing to do with bias.

Bias is open to interpretation like HW says, the bias notes would only be as good as the person doing them.

[Some_One]

You're also forgetting the EV side, if everyone thinks that the 1 hole is the kiss of death and you get 50-100% premium on the 1 hole, you'll probably still turn out ok, just with a lower win rate.

[Billnewman]

I think it's the most overrated angle used by the masses. You hear it every day at the track or OTB "how is the track running today ? Is speed holding?" A couple 5/1 shots wire the field early in the card and the extent of many peoples handicapping is finding horse that run early. Never mind if they stop late as long as that speed bias is there

[acorn54]

then there is value to consider

the horse might be running against the bias and fail to win at low odds, but at longshot odds, then he could be a good bet to win.
i remember mike pizzolla in one of his tapes saying horse A doesn't have a shot to win at 2-1, then saying at 10-1 he is in the hunt a running a good race and winning.