Betting execution....

[DeltaLover]

Correct betting execution is probably the most difficult aspect of the game and the one that separates boys from men.

Of course despite that fact that I am well aware that any kind of a betting scheme and money management technique is impossible to show a profit out of a negative expectation, I am also a firm believer that the betting style and selection of the proper pool is the key factor when it comes to horse betting, at least when we try to maximize our bottom line.

Here in PA, although we have gone through extremely detailed conversations about handicapping methodologies, automated strategies and black-boxes and any imaginable type of algorithmic model or machine learning approach, I still feel we have not gone to the same extend amalyzing the optimal ways to translate our opinions to the most profitable betting strategy...

I would like to hear your views and ways of betting, assuming some given handicapping opinions, like for example going against an odds-on favorite, spoting a single longshot or whatever else scenario you might be looking for when going through a betting card....

Some related questions that might help us express our approach might be the following:

Do you really shoot for the high score or you rather try to grind small profit out of a more consistent way?

What is your hedging strategy?

Ducthing or not?

Do you look for specific racing schemes and bet accordingly?

Etc....

[whodoyoulike]

What you're seeking is one person's theory on how one should wager? Whether that individual would actually bet as they propose wouldn't be known unless they were able to demonstrate how they would bet before a race is run. I think a number of posters are BIG on theory but lack the ability or knowledge when to properly apply it.

Wouldn't it be better to participate in one of the "let's handicap a race threads"?

[Robert Fischer]

I like to start with higher percentage plays before the long shots, but ultimately it would be dependent on things such as the size of your bankroll, the need of a consistent income, and the value of your long-shot plays in comparison to your higher percentage plays.

My opinion is that in general, you start by filling up the win(higher percentage) pool until your value threshold is reached, and then you expand outward into exotics if possible. My goals would be something like a percent of bankroll increase on a consistent exponential basis. If you are able to plateau these increases by reaching pool-size limits, then you would hope to expand your wagering menu.

I don't like to hedge as part of a serious long term strategy unless for some reason an individual outcome is disproportionately large to your system.

I would look to dutch when there is a false favorite and the odds support multiple contenders with closely ranked values.

[Cholly]

in a normal week make 3 or 4 bets to win; in an eight-horse field demand at least 10-1...sprinkle a bit in exactas under 2 or 3 of the top-bet horses, so that if my horse loses to one of those, I get my money back plus a little...streaks between hits measure weeks, sometimes months.

[Poindexter]

First off I have to figure out who I am keying. It could be the 6/5 or even 3/5 favorite who I feel lay over the field, or it can be a 10-1 to 20-1 shot who is amongst my "b" choices(2nd, 3rd and 4th choices). Obviously first up is the straight play(these days I am typically equal amounts win/place and horse must be value and typically 2-1 +). Then there is the multi race exotics. Rolling Doubles are cool because you have the probables in front of you and you can be selective. Maybe I have 3 or 4 contenders in the next race, but only 2 of them seem to represent some kind of value(if I am keying a 10-1 shot with a horse in the next race and the double is paying $88-does 3-1 seem like fair value or better or is that too short) in the double pool, I will stick with them. Pick 3's, I have some A/b/c formulas I like to use in the pick 3's, but they can get pricey(around $44 on the low end, $120 for your really solid singles). I wil use these if i really like the horse I am keying, but obviously have to be selective as keying every value 15-1 shot for $44 can add extensively to my bankroll. If I feel it is too risky, I will just key in the doubles.

Then there of course there are exactas, tri's and supers. The key for me on these bets is that when I A, B, C the races there has to be some reasonable separation. A lot of turf races(especially), the difference between your 3rd choice and your 8th choice is so negligible, I am just not interested in these exotics. Also, is your A choice clearly best or just a tad the best? In exactas, I prefer a 2 horse key or box(obviously when the situation arrives). In Trifectas I prefer a 3 horse key or box(obviously they have to lay over the field and not have conflicting running styles to play a box), supers, I play in 2 situations, either I am keying 1 horse with 4 horses or better yet, they are great for keying value longshots that look like they are good enough to run 3rd or 4th with they key contenders.

That is why I love this game so much, there are so many different ways to attack, and even when it looks like there is no value per se in the win pool, I typically can find something to bet. I pass races as often as it rains in Los Angeles. Which is why I focus on 1 track at a time, because if I do not handicap well(and ideally watch replays), or focus well, I will get my head handed to me on a platter. It is very easy to get caught up in the action.

This is sort of a sparse review of what I do. I am strictly recreational

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Correct betting execution is probably the most difficult aspect of the game and the one that separates boys from men.

...I am also a firm believer that the betting style and selection of the proper pool is the key factor when it comes to horse betting, at least when we try to maximize our bottom line.

Some related questions that might help us express our approach might be the following:

Do you really shoot for the high score or you rather try to grind small profit out of a more consistent way?

Agree wholeheartedly it's all about the wagering.

Selection of the proper pool is a challenge for the blind pools (tris, supers, pick 3s, 4s, 6s).

Finding any "meat" on the bone in the pools that the black boxes can analyze is tough for the recreational players, so grinding out a small, consistent profit is next to impossible. This steers me more to the selective, longer-shot plays, skipping the races where chalk dominates.

Twenty five years ago, I could play most races varying my wagers on the level of confidence in the outcome, and still show (small) profits on a regular basis. I might have a $100 win bet in one race, $75 worth of exactas in another, $150 in tris in a third, and a $200 show bet to round out the card. I tried not to be greedy, and took whatever the race or series of races offered.

Today it all starts with whether or not a race will be chalky, or chaos. Chalk (top 3 betting interests at 4-1 or less) can only be played in exotics, and only in one slot (or two in Pick 4s). Very rarely is a place or show bet a "smart" play, but can come into play with stakes or bridge-jumpers involved. At the end of the year, it's the hope that a few signers have kept me in the black.

I tip my hat to the players who claim to be winners betting 7/2 shots, where their odds line indicates they should be 2-1, and thus are getting an overlay and making a positive return expectation wager. They are better than I am.....much better.

[thaskalos]

I have had to make certain changes in my betting style...to accommodate the recent changes within the game. Today's small fields have made superfectas unattractive...so I focus primarily on the exactas and the trifectas. My preferred style of exacta betting is to key a horse over two or three other horses...and my trifecta bet of choice is to use my key horse in the first and second slots, over four other horses. That way, I have a chance to crush the race if things go according to plan...and I still have a chance at a modest return if my handicapping is a little off. But I don't really believe in "formula betting"...so the betting construction changes to fit the differing circumstances of the given race. The main thing is to have the wager represent my handicapping opinion.

My biggest wagers are reserved for what I consider my strong suit in the game...which is sprint races on the dirt. I play 3 tracks a day, 5 tracks on the weekends...and I bet on about a third of the races that I see. No action bets. If a race does not deserve a serious wager...then it deserves no wager at all. Those action bets make a difference in the long run.

[tanner12oz]

I've always wanted to sweep the board with wps, exacta, tri, super, doubles etc etc all in the same race...i typically play pick 4, pick 5 only but in no way is that the right way to go all the time

[Robert Goren]

If think the win odds drop too much after the gates open, you should try betting exactas. There was a guy who wrote a book on show betting based on getting overlays in the show pool. Anybody who has tried that recently has found out the late money this days has killed that idea. The same can be said for betting into exacta pools. If you betting into tri pools, you have only a vague guess as to what kind of odds you are getting. If this game was easy just pick your pools, everybody would be doing it and nobody would be flipping burgers at Wendy's.

[fiveouttasix]

I have had to make certain changes in my betting style...to accommodate the recent changes within the game. Today's small fields have made superfectas unattractive...so I focus primarily on the exactas and the trifectas. My preferred style of exacta betting is to key a horse over two or three other horses...and my trifecta bet of choice is to use my key horse in the first and second slots, over four other horses. That way, I have a chance to crush the race if things go according to plan...and I still have a chance at a modest return if my handicapping is a little off. But I don't really believe in "formula betting"...so the betting construction changes to fit the differing circumstances of the given race. The main thing is to have the wager represent my handicapping opinion.

My biggest wagers are reserved for what I consider my strong suit in the game...which is sprint races on the dirt. I play 3 tracks a day, 5 tracks on the weekends...and I bet on about a third of the races that I see. No action bets. If a race does not deserve a serious wager...then it deserves no wager at all. Those action bets make a difference in the long run.
I like this approach. Just curious, Do you have an odds requirement for your key horse?

[1st time lasix]

I think the first thing a player should do is memorize exotic take out percentages in each pool. Have a bias toward the tracks and pools than have the lowest hurdle. For example: In NY ---tend to favor the pick five,...exactas,...and doubles. Generally stay away from the tris,...supers and pick 3's. The best chance to bet small and win big on your investment opinions is to gravitate to the multi-horse exotics with the lowest take-outs. Of course in a para-mutual game.....nothing ever substitutes for good handicapping and solid "key" opinions that may differ from the public's top choices. Stucture the wager for the upside.

[DeltaLover]

Wouldn't it be better to participate in one of the "let's handicap a race threads"?

nothing ever substitutes for good handicapping and solid "key" opinions that may differ from the public's top choices. Stucture the wager for the upside.

We should not confuse handicapping to betting execution, as they represent distinct concepts of the process of horse gambling. In this thread, we assume that we already have done our handicapping and starting from there we analyze ways of converting it to bets.

Opinions differ greatly when it comes to betting execution, ranging from the ultra passive show bettor to the huge risk taker who tries to hit the pick 6 using a fifty dollars ticket. The objective of the horse (or any other) gambler, should be to avoid large mistakes, admitting that he can never be completely flawless but he can always classify the cost of his potential errors. As I said above, betting execution matters the most when it comes to our bottom line and I certainly believe that there are related practices that can be proven right or wrong as there are others falling into a grayer area and are more a matter of an opinion...

Again, I think that most of these errors derive from the way we are placing our bets and this is why I think talking about it, might be beneficial for most of us....

[Appy]

Taking the title question literally identifies a too frequent problem of mine.
I often rely on live tote to determine my play. Late moves on the tote cause me problems by forcing me to hurry when entering my bet on the wager pad and I make unintended omissions and/or entry errors. I have missed numerous paydays that I handicapped properly but failed to collect due to failure to properly execute the bet.

[AndyC]

...Some related questions that might help us express our approach might be the following:

1) Do you really shoot for the high score or you rather try to grind small profit out of a more consistent way?

2) What is your hedging strategy?

3) Dutching or not?

4) Do you look for specific racing schemes and bet accordingly?

Etc....

1.) I shoot for the high score and prefer not to grind. I think there is more pressure in trying to grind.

2.) Never really hedge. If I am sitting on a possible big pick 6 score I might cover some contenders not on my ticket with some win money.

3.) Dutching if warranted by a very vulnerable favorite and long priced contenders.

4.) My primary objective is to find overlays and leverage them vertically and sometimes horizontally. I have found that overlays in the win pool are usually overlays on top in vertical bets. But I think it is unwise to play your "overlay" in the 2nd or 3rd spots in a vertical bet and expect an overlay result. The exception being when I am betting against a favorite. Betting horizontal bets, especially the P-6, is something that should be covered in a separate topic.

[Secondbest]

How to bet is in someways harder to figure out that What to bet.I wish I had a nickle for everyone who had a 10-1 shot and collected zero because They structured their bets poorly.As for me its only win plus the exacta as a place bet.

[whodoyoulike]

... Again, I think that most of these errors derive from the way we are placing our bets and this is why I think talking about it, might be beneficial for most of us....

You appear to be an intelligent guy. I'm not valuing discussions on theories as much as you, compared to how one would actually wager given the current odds being presented in a given time span. Those who have responded probably wouldn't bet as they have posted given how a given race and the horse's odds are presented. This is a theory versus practice exercise. I think practice is more important in any activity.

Next time there's a "Let's handicap a race" thread, I hope you are willing to participate. Also, those who have replied and have never participated in one of these threads, should do so. IMO, this is a simple way to improve your game.

[DeltaLover]

You appear to be an intelligent guy. I'm not valuing discussions on theories as much as you, compared to how one would actually wager given the current odds being presented in a given time span. Those who have responded probably wouldn't bet as they have posted given how a given race and the horse's odds are presented. This is a theory versus practice exercise. I think practice is more important in any activity.

Next time there's a "Let's handicap a race" thread, I hope you are willing to participate. Also, those who have replied and have never participated in one of these threads, should do so. IMO, this is a simple way to improve your game.


At no point I diminish the importance of handicapping although I think that discussing macro-handicapping is way more interesting than a concentrating to a specific race and the way to do this, is by using historical data stored in a data base and processed by some systematic way. This does not mean of course that handicapping a specific race is useless and I also believe is something that we should do from time to time...

Still, as I underlined previously, I think that betting execution is a very pragmatic concept that is directly applicable to the real world and should be one of the primary topics for the horse bettor to think about...

[Cholly]

At no point I diminish the importance of handicapping although I think that discussing macro-handicapping is way more interesting than a concentrating to a specific race and the way to do this, is by using historical data stored in a data base and processed by some systematic way. This does not mean of course that handicapping a specific race is useless and I also believe is something that we should do from time to time...

Still, as I underlined previously, I think that betting execution is a very pragmatic concept that is directly applicable to the real world and should be one of the primary topics for the horse bettor to think about...

and your personal response to the original question you posed is...

[DeltaLover]

and your personal response to the original question you posed is...

i will reply by tomorow since i am still thinking of it.

[AndyC]

At no point I diminish the importance of handicapping although I think that discussing macro-handicapping is way more interesting than a concentrating to a specific race and the way to do this, is by using historical data stored in a data base and processed by some systematic way. This does not mean of course that handicapping a specific race is useless and I also believe is something that we should do from time to time...

Still, as I underlined previously, I think that betting execution is a very pragmatic concept that is directly applicable to the real world and should be one of the primary topics for the horse bettor to think about...


Given the number of people who currently have the know-how and the where-with-all to process historical data wouldn't it be foolish for 99.9% of the handicappers to try and compete using that methodology? Personally I want to use information that is not widely available to the public so that I can find an edge that won't be spit out from a computer program.

I used to believe that I wanted more info publicly available for my handicapping but I came to realize that more info worked against me.