Beyer Online Derby Chat Transcipt

[cj]

Daily Racing Form - Beyer Chat Transcript (http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/chat_beyer.html)

[keilan]

Uhh Christ, now I read Beyer likes the same two horses I'm running with today. (Read the Footnotes and Smarty Jones) I haven't had the winner the past two years now Beyer has given me the "curse of death". That's it I'm not reading another article until tomorrow. :(

[kenwoodallpromos]

Beyer says he's betting Cliff on top for the figures, or is he that much of a Kerry-like waffler?

[cato]

note to file: Can we keep politics out of the handicapping discussion? If you want to be part of the political attack machine, on either side, directly or indirectly, please go to off topic
_______________________________________

with regard to Beyer, the best part of the transcript was his response about how to bet $200-

Take a shot at doing something big- two $80 exactas and reverse for $20 each

One of my many weaknesses is that I would try to get way too much coverage, so that even if I hit, it is not that profitable.

I need to keep being reminded to handicap the race and take a stand.

Good luck to all

Cato

[chickenhead]

I'm gonna go straight win on one or two horses. And the pick3 with a few more.

I don't want to bet any other exotics, it would kill me to have the winner at great odds and lose the bet. It's happened too many times..

[kenwoodallpromos]

LOL!! / If you want to discuss how to avoid going to off-topic, I guess 1 way is to discuss your off-topic addiction on off-topic! Please go to off-topic to discuss your off-topic problems, because unlike my off-topic referencs, it was not centered on anything that has to do with racing nor did you attempt to make any connection to racing!LOL!!

[JPinMaryland]

I found Ken's joke to be both funny and off putting. Like one of those George Bush leers. :)

[Tom]

Huh?:confused:

[JPinMaryland]

If you read Beyer's analysis you start to see that even he is not totally objective using his own system.

His analysis of Tapit; despite low Beyer figures, he's over his infection and he's going to improve. Wishful thinking at best; all these horse are going to improve some. ANd there's no way to measure the effects of the lung infection so how can you count on that?

Looking at tapes of Tapits races would have been a better idea.

On Smarty: despite the huge Beyer figures, he will get a different trip so he's not counting on him. Well okay, but there really isnt that much front speed to affect him that much.

Again, Beyer would have been better off just being objective and going with what his own numbers tell him. Smarty was best by far, based on the numbers.

On Cliff's Edge, he's just made a 20 pt. jump in Beyer number so why do you like him: Lots of horses have improved and done this, like War Emblem or whatever. But again, that's not being objective, that's just picking and choosing examples to support your own pt of view.

Bottom line: what's the pt of creating an objective formula if you're not going to apply it objectively? NOt saying to ignore other factors, like trip, tape footage, etc. but try to be consistent.

After today's race, I actually am beginning to like Beyer's numbers more. But not his analysis.

[cato]

Yes, Beyers ignored the objective data and misled the handicapping world, just like Bush lied to the free world about WMD and Iraq's ties to 9/11

wow. I've tied that into handicapping so it must be okay

do you see? this really gets us nowhere

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by cato
Yes, Beyers ignored the objective data and misled the handicapping world, just like Bush lied to the free world about WMD and Iraq's ties to 9/11

wow. I've tied that into handicapping so it must be okay

do you see? this really gets us nowhere

Stop making laugh Cato. Actually, laughter is good. Keeping making me laugh Cato. That was funny.

[JPinMaryland]

change "sneer" to "smirk," above. Apologies for the correction.

[bettheoverlay]

I don't believe Beyer ever claimed to have a "system" but he has always amused me in his articles and the seminars of his I have attended, how he so often cavalierly dismisses his own numbers that made him famous. Most handicappers are egoists, searching for confirmation, who believe they have a special gift for the subject and are loath to appear objective if it might diminish their genius.

I really shouldn't bash Beyer though as I, a confirmed disciple of the Bris Prime Power #s, cavalierly dismissed Smarty Jones second highest # (hasn't beaten anyone, can't get the distance)to a group of newbies (at the Brandywine Philly Park Turf Club no less!) who where there to root Smarty on. Lion Heart was the #1 PP but I needed to express my genius by going with Limestone. Missed a good exacta and I had 3 of the top 4 PPs hooked with Ashado in the double, but no Smarty.

Needless to say the Turf Club was rockin and rollin with happiness when Smarty rolled home, and even I was a pretty happy loser.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Just for the record, I do not believe Beyer Intentionally mislead abou there being WMD (Winner in the Mud in the Derby)!LOL!!

[tex97239]

Andy Beyer has a long history of publically embarrasing himself by mis-interpreting and/or misplaying his own fig's.

The only Derby winner that he has picked on top in the last dozen years was FuPeg if my memory serves me correctly.

The Derby results confirm once again that the high-tones who pass themselves off as the handicapping luminaries of horseracing are either-

A) intentionally disseminating bad information to mislead the unwashed masses into betting the wrong horse (in which case they are doing us all a great favor)

Or-

B) no better handicappers than the average guy at any given racetrack on any given day...and maybe not even as good!

This year's Derby is a perfect example. How many of the public selectors had Smarty Jones picked as their top horse?...

One, I think...the general public however did much better, sending him to post as the crowd favorite in an eighteen horse field.

Sometimes one has to wonder if Beyer, Steve Crist, Mike Watchmaker and all those other windbags who have made a career out of incorreclty analyzing the Triple Crown and BC campaigns, really bet their own selections.

Other than Beyer managing to stumble upon Cajun Beat in last years' BC Sprint (what is it they say, "even a blind pig finds a truffle now and then") I can't remember any of them offering much in the way of useful handicapping insight into the TC or BC for many years now.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Msg to the experts- Thank you for your innovation's basics! We will interpret and utilize how we see best!

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah, in all fairness, Beyer is a great writer. Not much at picking horses, but his articles are well written.

[NoDayJob]

A number of years ago a video was made about Andy Beyer at the races. After viewing it I came away with the impression that he is just another gambler. He's too emotional to be a consistantly winning horse player. Writing is his real forte. True he has won money at the track, but I doubt it's his primary source of income.

NDJ

[Derek2U]

i agree NO & JP

[kenwoodallpromos]

Go to a search engine, type in Andy Beyer Cigar Aficionado; You will read a very revealing article and interview of Beyer in regard to his gambling. I assume it is a typical gambling day for him.