How does this guy do it???

[teddy]

Ok I know a guy that is the only one I know of Personally to make millions playing horses. Heres what I know which is vague. Some of the great minds here can have an idea I bet.
1. Plays with a huge rebate.. Probably 10% at places like CD on exacta and 15 to 22 on supers.
2. Does bias for horses based on track daily.
3. Plays race to race. No horizontals
4. bets huge exacta combos , boxes ect.
5. Says everyone is trying to pick a winner... i try to have the winning combo.
6. Says Part of the field is just better than others.


This cat went from broke to 5mil then back to 100k cause he got messed up bad on vegas. Now hes back to over a mill doing the same thing

He plays at least 10k a race in 3 vert pools. He uses no software what so ever LOL

[flatstats]

Just random luck? There will be another character along next year?

[ten2oneormore]

I think the biggest advantage you can have is knowing a bias before others catch on.

[Some_One]

Ok I know a guy that is the only one I know of Personally to make millions playing horses. Heres what I know which is vague. Some of the great minds here can have an idea I bet.
1. Plays with a huge rebate.. Probably 10% at places like CD on exacta and 15 to 22 on supers.
2. Does bias for horses based on track daily.
3. Plays race to race. No horizontals
4. bets huge exacta combos , boxes ect.
5. Says everyone is trying to pick a winner... i try to have the winning combo.
6. Says Part of the field is just better than others.


This cat went from broke to 5mil then back to 100k cause he got messed up bad on vegas. Now hes back to over a mill doing the same thing

He plays at least 10k a race in 3 vert pools. He uses no software what so ever LOL

10% rebate + playing against people who believe in biases and bounces

[Robert Goren]

I find it hard to believe he can bet that kind of money without using a computer to size his bets.

[burnsy]

Ok I know a guy that is the only one I know of Personally to make millions playing horses. Heres what I know which is vague. Some of the great minds here can have an idea I bet.
1. Plays with a huge rebate.. Probably 10% at places like CD on exacta and 15 to 22 on supers.
2. Does bias for horses based on track daily.
3. Plays race to race. No horizontals
4. bets huge exacta combos , boxes ect.
5. Says everyone is trying to pick a winner... i try to have the winning combo.
6. Says Part of the field is just better than others.


This cat went from broke to 5mil then back to 100k cause he got messed up bad on vegas. Now hes back to over a mill doing the same thing

He plays at least 10k a race in 3 vert pools. He uses no software what so ever LOL

This is how the real pro's play. Before triples every race and supers they only played exactas. These people are not public handicappers or public at all. You have to know them before they'll even talk to you. When I was young I got to know a group that bought a house up here just to have a place for the summer. The only reason they let me in was one of them was going out with my friend. They only bet exactas, this was before computers, rebates or any of the perks. They didn't want anyone knowing what they were up to anyway. They had certain tellers (they trusted) that knew who they were. I'm talking numbers boxed for thousands at a time. They are not even interested in horizontals and loved that people hype them. Why is the exacta pool always the largest, race to race on a daily basis? Because there are serious players, putting serious money into them. They are not looking for the one big, glory, pic score. They'll gladly hammer ordinary exactas and make a fortune off of winning combos, consistently over time. I know a lot of you are stuck on computers but many of these folks are just cut throat, good at combos and can see them by following a circuit. I used to watch them bet crazy money. Just like your friend they had nerves of steel and could deal with the "swings" of winning and losing. Believe me these people don't live like Ozzie and Harriet....and they never, ever talk about it unless they trust you. None of these guys had a real job, they traveled with NYRA in the summer and went to Florida in the winter. Picking exactas was literally their profession and they were not living shabbily. I was a kid then and soaked up their knowledge like a sponge. The exacta is my best play because of this.

[horses4courses]

I knew a player like this in the 1990s.
His initials are "GD". Very nice man. :ThmbUp:

Lived in the Bay Area most of his life,
he often played via simulcast at the Pleasanton Fair.

Last I heard, probably 6-8 years ago,
he had moved on due to the lure of the rebate.

Not sure exactly where he ended up, though,
or if he is still playing.

[EMD4ME]

I knew of THE legendary teddy who turned 40 bucks into hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars at NYRA 25 years ago. You're not him are you??? :confused:

[the little guy]

I knew of THE legendary teddy who turned 40 bucks into hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars at NYRA 25 years ago. You're not him are you??? :confused:


Wherever that Teddy is, I hope he's doing well, but I'm sure he's not on message boards.

I liked that Teddy.

[Exotic1]

I knew of THE legendary teddy who turned 40 bucks into hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars at NYRA 25 years ago. You're not him are you??? :confused:

Not him.

[teddy]

I find it hard to believe he can bet that kind of money without using a computer to size his bets.
Oh yes....seen him ...betting thousands of races I guess you get it naturally.

[teddy]

This is how the real pro's play. Before triples every race and supers they only played exactas. These people are not public handicappers or public at all. You have to know them before they'll even talk to you. When I was young I got to know a group that bought a house up here just to have a place for the summer. The only reason they let me in was one of them was going out with my friend. They only bet exactas, this was before computers, rebates or any of the perks. They didn't want anyone knowing what they were up to anyway. They had certain tellers (they trusted) that knew who they were. I'm talking numbers boxed for thousands at a time. They are not even interested in horizontals and loved that people hype them. Why is the exacta pool always the largest, race to race on a daily basis? Because there are serious players, putting serious money into them. They are not looking for the one big, glory, pic score. They'll gladly hammer ordinary exactas and make a fortune off of winning combos, consistently over time. I know a lot of you are stuck on computers but many of these folks are just cut throat, good at combos and can see them by following a circuit. I used to watch them bet crazy money. Just like your friend they had nerves of steel and could deal with the "swings" of winning and losing. Believe me these people don't live like Ozzie and Harriet....and they never, ever talk about it unless they trust you. None of these guys had a real job, they traveled with NYRA in the summer and went to Florida in the winter. Picking exactas was literally their profession and they were not living shabbily. I was a kid then and soaked up their knowledge like a sponge. The exacta is my best play because of this.
That's him ...nerves of steel. Just doesn't care he's betting so much because he's manufacturing money.

[EMD4ME]

Wherever that Teddy is, I hope he's doing well, but I'm sure he's not on message boards.

I liked that Teddy.

Thanks for accepting my apology yesterday Andy. You're a gentleman. Thank you for seeing that I wasn't attacking you. I love your work ethic, skills and ability. I was just commenting on how you're forced to 'pick' all races and that is extremely hard to do.

Yes, he was legendary and I hope he is well too.....

May the horse be with you!

[thaskalos]

Thanks for accepting my apology yesterday Andy. You're a gentleman. Thank you for seeing that I wasn't attacking you. I love your work ethic, skills and ability. I was just commenting on how you're forced to 'pick' all races and that is extremely hard to do.

Yes, he was legendary and I hope he is well too.....

May the horse be with you!

Jesus...how OLD are you?

Do you need EVERYBODY to like you? :)

[aaron]

I knew a lot of real big bettors at NYRA over the years. Most of them have disappeared from the track. I also remember that many of these so called pro's left the game without having the success everyone thought they had. I still know a few who are successful,but this is a tough game and those who win over the long haul are few and far between. I agree that most of the bettors I knew were betting exacts's and some tri"s,but that was before the picks became so popular. In today's racing,I would guess that the pick's would be used more. I do know at least one or two bettors who are still using the exacta or win/place as their main bets,but I would think they are in the minority.

[classhandicapper]

I'm going to guess that he's very good at bias identification and exploitation.

Track biases are fertile ground for overlays. Bias determination is tied to your opinion of the horses before the races were run. Given that even skilled handicappers often disagree about the horses going into the card, that means they will often also disagree about whether or not there was a bias.

Even when handicappers agree that a particular day was biased there are subtleties about how biases impact performances differently that are not well understood. The general assumption is that a bias will impact all horses that raced with or against it equally but that is false.

[Dave Schwartz]

Plays with a huge rebate.. Probably 10% at places like CD

One correction I must make: Nobody... NOBODY... gets 10% at CD.

Nobody gets 5% at CD.


Other than that, I can believe the rest of it.

[aaron]

I'm going to guess that he's very good at bias identification and exploitation.

Track biases are fertile ground for overlays. Bias determination is tied to your opinion of the horses before the races were run. Given that even skilled handicappers often disagree about the horses going into the card, that means they will often also disagree about whether or not there was a bias.

Even when handicappers agree that a particular day was biased there are subtleties about how biases impact performances differently that are not well understood. The general assumption is that a bias will impact all horses that raced with or against it equally but that is false.
In my opinion,what real good handicappers are able to do is bet a horse who was with the bias because they know the horse is a horse who while aided by the bias is in the right spot and is a good horse who probably would have won even without being aided by the bias.

[burnsy]

That's him ...nerves of steel. Just doesn't care he's betting so much because he's manufacturing money.

This was about 30 years ago. When money was worth way more. I watched these guys buy a house up here.....cash. Lived in it 2 months a year. They never let the losses bother them either. One summer I watched them go to Keeler and buy a new Mercedes......they had a bad meet that year and had to sell it back on the way out of town. Believe me, there are guys out there like this. They are in the shadows and real professional gamblers. These kind of people never talk. They are not fools........would you? It takes a certain kind to live this way. Do you really think these people selling tips or touting horses are pros? :lol: I could never do it but I had a blast partying with them. They even let me watch the house one winter. They were the types if there was a way to manufacture money.....they would be doing it. Over the years I've met a few people that don't make their money in what society calls the "conventional manner"....people like this are smart enough not to advertise it too.....I know its hard for most folks to believe but I saw this first hand.

[classhandicapper]

In my opinion,what real good handicappers are able to do is bet a horse who was with the bias because they know the horse is a horse who while aided by the bias is in the right spot and is a good horse who probably would have won even without being aided by the bias.

Yep. That's what I was implying.

When everyone knows that a particular track had a gold rail or was very speed favoring, many handicappers will throw out or severely downgrade very good horses that would have won anyway just because they rode the bias last out.

So you can occasionally use horses like that when they don't get bet down.

[thaskalos]

The most successful gamblers possess two qualities which put them many lengths ahead of the rest of us. They are fearless bettors...and they don't take the steam. ALL of us know that these are the two most important qualities in "professional" play...but we downplay them because we don't possess them ourselves. What we lesser players call "discipline", is really FEAR in disguise...and very few of us are capable of maintaining our composure when the pressure is on.

Professional gambling is not a matter of "technique". It's primarily a matter of character.

[classhandicapper]

The most successful gamblers possess two qualities which put them many lengths ahead of the rest of us. They are fearless bettors...and they don't take the steam. ALL of us know that these are the two most important qualities in "professional" play...but we downplay them because we don't possess them ourselves. What we lesser players call "discipline", is really FEAR in disguise...and very few of us are capable of maintaining our composure when the pressure is on.

Professional gambling is not a matter of "technique". It's primarily a matter of character.

Good post.

I would add one thing that has a major impact on me. It's possible to have the bankroll and willingness to bet large sums but become paralyzed by information overload. When you look at a lot of sources of information or handicap in different styles, it will sometimes conflict. When that happens it's harder to pull the trigger because you become less confident in your appraisal of each horse's chances. So it's not really fear. It's lack of clarity.

That's one thing that "sheet" players do so well. A lot of them aren't worried about pace issues, bias, class of competition, trips, other sets of figures etc... They are fully geared towards a single set of numbers and their pattern interpretations of them.

So on one hand, some might say the game is way more complex than they make it out to be. But on the other hand they have clarity of thought.

[thaskalos]

Good post.

I would add one thing that has a major impact on me. It's possible to have the bankroll and willingness to bet large sums but become paralyzed by information overload. When you look at a lot of sources of information or handicap in different styles, it will sometimes conflict. When that happens it's harder to pull the trigger because you become less confident in your appraisal of each horse's chances. So it's not really fear. It's lack of clarity.

That's one thing that "sheet" players do so well. A lot of them aren't worried about pace issues, bias, class of competition, trips, other sets of figures etc... They are fully geared towards a single set of numbers and their pattern interpretations of them.

So on one hand, some might say the game is way more complex than they make it out to be. But on the other hand they have clarity of thought.

This indecision, because our "ducks are not all in a row"...has FEAR as its foundation. ALL horseplayers know that the different handicapping factors often conflict. The "class" horse often seems to be tailing off form...while the speed-figure standout often seems hopelessly outclassed. And the "form" horse often seems just a tad too slow. ALL the horseplayers face these confusing scenarios every day...but not all of them become "paralyzed" because of this "information overload". A few of them consider this to be an inescapable part of the game...and the risk that emerges as a result is, to them, the cost of "doing business".

If it was easy...then EVERYBODY would be doing it... :)

[Light]

If these so called "pros" hammer exactas hundreds of times, and it is the bet of choice for "pros" then how come the "will pay" exacta grids do not reflect that ,nor do most of the exacta payouts. I think there is a little exaggeration here.

[classhandicapper]

This indecision, because our "ducks are not all in a row"...has FEAR as its foundation. ALL horseplayers know that the different handicapping factors often conflict. The "class" horse often seems to be tailing off form...while the speed-figure standout often seems hopelessly outclassed. And the "form" horse often seems just a tad too slow. ALL the horseplayers face these confusing scenarios every day...but not all of them become "paralyzed" because of this "information overload". A few of them consider this to be an inescapable part of the game...and the risk that emerges as a result is, to them, the cost of "doing business".

If it was easy...then EVERYBODY would be doing it... :)


I hear what you are saying. I'd say what I am talking about is often a matter of the accuracy of the data.

Let's say I handicap a race and have resolved all the major handicapping questions except for one. I am looking at 2 sets of figures. They disagree on how fast a couple of these horses recently ran. Off one set #1 looks like an overlay at 3-1 and off the other #3 looks like an overlay at 9/5.

What do I do?

I know one of these horses is probably an overlay but I don't necessarily know which one because I don't know which set of figures is correct in this specific case. I might try to figure that out with some extra research, but sometimes it's still not clear. At that point I would personally often punt.

Someone using only one set (either), will punch the ticket with confidence. There may be a small level of ignorance involved in their confidence because they don't even know there's a controversy about how fast a certain horse actually ran last time, but they are not paralyzed by the extra information.

When you take that example and add 2 sets of pace figures, a more visual comparative class based view of the pace and performances that disagrees with both sets of figures, etc.... and add them to all the other tough questions that baffle everyone a little, you lose all clarity.

It's only when the all the ducks are in a row that you know you are at least working off accurate information. If you are only looking at one duck, there is no row to worry about. ;)

[thaskalos]

I hear what you are saying, but I'm talking about something else. I'd say what I am talking about is the accuracy of the data or your interpretations of it.

Let's say I handicap a race and have resolved all the handicapping issues except for one. I am looking at 2 sets of figures. They disagree on how fast a couple of these horses recently ran. Off one set #1 looks like an overlay at 3-1 and off the other #3 looks like an overlay at 9/5.

What do I do?

I know one of these horses is probably an overlay but I don't necessarily know which one because I don't know which set of figures is correct in this specific case. I might try to figure that out with some extra research, but sometimes it's still not clear. At that point I personally would punt.

Someone using only one set (either), will punch the ticket with confidence. There may be a small level of ignorance involved in their confidence because they don't even know there's a controversy about how fast a certain horse actually ran last time, but they are not paralyzed by the extra information.

When you take that example and add 2 sets of pace figures, a more visual comparative class based view of the pace and performances that disagrees, etc.... and add them to all the other tough questions that baffle everyone a little, you lose all clarity. It's only when the stars all line up that you feel the confidence that your data is actually correct.

I know what you are saying, CH...but I can't agree with it. I don't care HOW sophisticated the horseplayer thinks he is...or how INTRICATE he considers his figures to be; if he is just sitting there in an advanced case of confusion...then he needs to improve his play.

They pay us for the BETTING. :)

[aaron]

I know what you are saying, CH...but I can't agree with it. I don't care HOW sophisticated the horseplayer thinks he is...or how INTRICATE he considers his figures to be; if he is just sitting there in an advanced case of confusion...then he needs to improve his play.

They pay us for the BETTING. :)
Very true. I think you have to decide on what your handicapping method is going to be and stick with it. You don't want information overflow. I understand that looking at different speed and pace figures for a race will probably result in different bets. The point being is if you can be successful with one type of approach,there is really no point going beyond that approach. If you keep changing you'll end up with no plan and will just make a hard game,more difficult. Good players have the courage of their convictions.

[classhandicapper]

I know what you are saying, CH...but I can't agree with it. I don't care HOW sophisticated the horseplayer thinks he is...or how INTRICATE he considers his figures to be; if he is just sitting there in an advanced case of confusion...then he needs to improve his play.

They pay us for the BETTING. :)

Oh, I absolutely agree with that part of it.

I am being open about my own weakness. I'm sitting here with the bankroll and desire (and I believe knowledge and skill) to put a ton more money through the windows profitably, but there are certain things I have to work out before I can expand beyond waiting until all the ducks are in a row.

I either have to work out a way of coping with conflicting information better or I have to shoot a few of the ducks. ;)

I used to be looser when I knew less.

[whodoyoulike]

I hear what you are saying. I'd say what I am talking about is often a matter of the accuracy of the data.

Let's say I handicap a race and have resolved all the major handicapping questions except for one. I am looking at 2 sets of figures. They disagree on how fast a couple of these horses recently ran. Off one set #1 looks like an overlay at 3-1 and off the other #3 looks like an overlay at 9/5.

What do I do?

I know one of these horses is probably an overlay but I don't necessarily know which one because I don't know which set of figures is correct in this specific case. I might try to figure that out with some extra research, but sometimes it's still not clear. At that point I would personally often punt...



This often occurs in most races which I handicap. Just to make certain I'm understanding your comments. What do you mean when you say "at that point I would personally often punt"?

Thanks.

.... I used to be looser when I knew less.

I agree.

[teddy]

Whats funny is this guy is so Unsophisticated its funny. Racing form and bias numbers on each horse is it. And exacta grid. I forgot about that. He keeps that up. Glancing at it as he goes. HMMMM

[DeltaLover]

No matter how good a “PRO” gambler is going to be it is a matter of time until he gets broke...

This is why one of the dominant characteristics of a “PRO” is to have the ability the ability to convince wealthy people to invest on him...

[classhandicapper]

"What do you mean when you say "at that point I would personally often punt"?"

I pass a lot of races.

[Cratos]

The most successful gamblers possess two qualities which put them many lengths ahead of the rest of us. They are fearless bettors...and they don't take the steam. ALL of us know that these are the two most important qualities in "professional" play...but we downplay them because we don't possess them ourselves. What we lesser players call "discipline", is really FEAR in disguise...and very few of us are capable of maintaining our composure when the pressure is on.

Professional gambling is not a matter of "technique". It's primarily a matter of character.

Excellent

[PhantomOnTour]

No matter how good a “PRO” gambler is going to be it is a matter of time until he gets broke...

The point is to die before that time comes :) :cool:

[Tape Reader]

Whats funny is this guy is so Unsophisticated its funny. Racing form and bias numbers on each horse is it. And exacta grid. I forgot about that. He keeps that up. Glancing at it as he goes. HMMMM

What is a “bias number” and where can I get them?

[baconswitchfarm]

[QUOTE=DeltaLover]No matter how good a “PRO” gambler is going to be it is a matter of time until he gets broke.





Sounds like my mother is posting. :lol:

[classhandicapper]

Whats funny is this guy is so Unsophisticated its funny. Racing form and bias numbers on each horse is it. And exacta grid. I forgot about that. He keeps that up. Glancing at it as he goes. HMMMM

This is the clarity I am talking about.

Many years ago I met 2 very bright guys at the Select Club OTB in downtown Manhattan. I hung out with them on my lunch hour for a couple of years. Sometimes we'd analyze a race together and I'd point out some trainer pattern, a horse that ran against the bias last out, a hidden class drop, a horse with pace figures that suggested he could shake loose, a bias on the day in question etc.. They had no interest in any of it even though they trusted my view. They were using back Beyer figures, very basic handicapping for distance, surface, recency etc... and very strict rules about odds and that's it. I thought they were clueless and were going to get killed, but they kept getting enough of those longshots home to keep winning. It was all very clear to them and they didn't want their thinking clouded by more information.

[Cratos]

No matter how good a “PRO” gambler is going to be it is a matter of time until he gets broke...

This is why one of the dominant characteristics of a “PRO” is to have the ability the ability to convince wealthy people to invest on him...

I realize that this is horseracing we are discussing, but risk taking (gambling) is virtually the same in any endeavor; it is just different rules.

Therefore all "PROs" will not end up broke because if that is true there wouldn't' be Apple, Microsoft, Google, and many other high risk ventures that became very successful and profitable.

Also in the NY metro area I know a few horse race gamblers who has done quite well for the last 30 years and I am speaking of the high 6 figures or above per year.

[EMD4ME]

Jesus...how OLD are you?

Do you need EVERYBODY to like you? :)

Hey Thaskalos. I don't understand. Can you please expand? Don't want to assume and I do respect you, so I don't want to assume I know what you mean. Thanks.

[EMD4ME]

I knew a lot of real big bettors at NYRA over the years. Most of them have disappeared from the track. I also remember that many of these so called pro's left the game without having the success everyone thought they had. I still know a few who are successful,but this is a tough game and those who win over the long haul are few and far between. I agree that most of the bettors I knew were betting exacts's and some tri"s,but that was before the picks became so popular. In today's racing,I would guess that the pick's would be used more. I do know at least one or two bettors who are still using the exacta or win/place as their main bets,but I would think they are in the minority.

I know one profitable player at NYRA and I have personally seen his activity. I never thought I'd need a mentor but having an ill placed ego in life can only hurt. I've learned a lot from him, meaning, he's reaffirmed what truly does matter in this game. He is profitable, consistently and he does so by being extreeeeeeeeemly selective, takes no "shots", unloads when the time is right and yes he bets to win 90% of the time and yes it's mostly on short priced horses.

[EMD4ME]

I'm going to guess that he's very good at bias identification and exploitation.

Track biases are fertile ground for overlays. Bias determination is tied to your opinion of the horses before the races were run. Given that even skilled handicappers often disagree about the horses going into the card, that means they will often also disagree about whether or not there was a bias.

Even when handicappers agree that a particular day was biased there are subtleties about how biases impact performances differently that are not well understood. The general assumption is that a bias will impact all horses that raced with or against it equally but that is false.

That is why it is SO important to follow one circuit inside out every day, every race. So that bias beliefs are more accurate versus the guy who makes an assumption of their first assessment of a card and it's results. A huge opportunity for having an edge.

[EMD4ME]

"What do you mean when you say "at that point I would personally often punt"?"

I pass a lot of races.

As I think many a pro should. If there's ample doubt, why bet? But again, that goes to strategy and what people believe in. Some people believe if I find a 10/1 shot going off at 25/1, I should bet them 25 times in a row because all it takes is one to break even.

I personally have changed my game over the years. Used to shoot for the stars. Pick 6's almost every chance I had, $30 pick 4's (not total cost but weighed out combos starting at $30 bucks for the top combo) etc. No more.... the more conservative the bettor (many units at 2/1) and with a mix of exotics when multiple opinions in a race/sequence exist.

Most often, I'll handicap a card and only see 2 solid plays at 2/1-4/1. So be it these days.

To each their own, I guess.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I know one profitable player at NYRA and I have personally seen his activity. I never thought I'd need a mentor but having an ill placed ego in life can only hurt. I've learned a lot from him, meaning, he's reaffirmed what truly does matter in this game. He is profitable, consistently and he does so by being extreeeeeeeeemly selective, takes no "shots", unloads when the time is right and yes he bets to win 90% of the time and yes it's mostly on short priced horses.

This describes the winning players I've known to a 'T'. $500 win bets on an 8/5 shot. Maybe a $20 win bet on a flyer at 17-1.....

[Greyfox]

What is a “bias number” and where can I get them?

Good question.:ThmbUp:

Biases exist, but more seldom than most horse players think.

If someone can post a number that can be empirically tested, I'm also interested in the question that Tape Reader has asked.

[teddy]

What is a “bias number” and where can I get them?
Makes them based on off odds ,post pos , finish.

[Greyfox]

Good question.:ThmbUp:

Biases exist, but more seldom than most horse players think.

If someone can post a number that can be empirically tested, I'm also interested in the question that Tape Reader has asked.

P.S.

I am not talking about "Meet Biases" where over a given series of time the track favors certain gate positions.

[EMD4ME]

This describes the winning players I've known to a 'T'. $500 win bets on an 8/5 shot. Maybe a $20 win bet on a flyer at 17-1.....

He is SO meticulous that he won't play the first 1 or 2 dirt races of the day. Why? So he can make sure that a strong bias does not exist. Never bets off tracks. Looks for any way NOT to bet as the more sure you are, the higher your percentages go up on a solid 8/5.

[Tape Reader]

Makes them based on off odds ,post pos , finish.

Thank you. I thought it was possibly a number printed in the PPs.

[classhandicapper]

He is SO meticulous that he won't play the first 1 or 2 dirt races of the day. Why? So he can make sure that a strong bias does not exist.

I have contemplated doing that also.

I saw a few races where the early betting didn't match my view of what the odds were going to be. The track turned out to be biased and favored the horses I thought got bet too strongly. So I became paranoid. I started thinking the track maintenance crew could manipulate the track and let certain players know beforehand how the track would play. That would give them a huge edge in the first few races.

I eventually just ignored my own paranoia, but you can get screwed up in the early races if there's a bias you don't know about or if there was a bias on the previous and you are forced to guess if it will stay the next day.

[Charli125]

I either have to work out a way of coping with conflicting information better or I have to shoot a few of the ducks. ;)

One suggestion when it comes to conflicting information. Stick with what works for you in the LONG TERM. It can be frustrating to have conflicting information, and it can make it hard if you need a winner in a race, for example, in a contest. But overall, you should be playing for long term ROI, so as long as a set of figures gives you a positive ROI, stick with it even if it conflicts with another set of figures.

[Secondbest]

I know one profitable player at NYRA and I have personally seen his activity. I never thought I'd need a mentor but having an ill placed ego in life can only hurt. I've learned a lot from him, meaning, he's reaffirmed what truly does matter in this game. He is profitable, consistently and he does so by being extreeeeeeeeemly selective, takes no "shots", unloads when the time is right and yes he bets to win 90% of the time and yes it's mostly on short priced horses.
I find that interesting that he bets mostly to win.Lots of times I'm more unsure on HOW to bet Then What to bet . I' ve been thinking of just betting to win and maybe an exacta as a place bet using the horse most likely to beat me.

[classhandicapper]

One suggestion when it comes to conflicting information. Stick with what works for you in the LONG TERM. It can be frustrating to have conflicting information, and it can make it hard if you need a winner in a race, for example, in a contest. But overall, you should be playing for long term ROI, so as long as a set of figures gives you a positive ROI, stick with it even if it conflicts with another set of figures.

I hear you.

The reason I started doing that was because I felt I could add value by looking at things from multiple directions and determining which view was correct more often than not. I think I do add value that way, but it has a cost too.

[thaskalos]

I hear you.

The reason I started doing that was because I felt I could add value by looking at things from multiple directions and determining which view was correct more often than not. I think I do add value that way, but it has a cost too.

I don't know if you've ever played no-limit poker, CH...but the good poker player doesn't wait for the nuts in order to go all-in. Poker is situational...and horse race betting is the same way. Great profit comes intertwined with sizable risk. "Safety" is comforting, but it has a price...and some of us are unwilling to pay it.

I wouldn't sit at a poker table and wait for the nuts if they PAID me...and I wouldn't stick to those 8/5 'sure things" at the track either. Better a day as a lion...than a hundred days as a sheep. :cool:

[classhandicapper]

I don't know if you've ever played no-limit poker, CH...but the good poker player doesn't wait for the nuts in order to go all-in. Poker is situational...and horse race betting is the same way. Great profit comes intertwined with sizable risk. "Safety" is comforting, but it has a price...and some of us are unwilling to pay it.

I wouldn't sit at a poker table and wait for the nuts if they PAID me...and I wouldn't stick to those 8/5 'sure things" at the track either. Better a day as a lion...than a hundred days as a sheep. :cool:

I played more limit, but I was definitely a tight aggressive player. If I felt sure I had the edge, I'd bet as aggressively as I could, but I was tight otherwise.

I rarely bet favorites. I don't have the data in front of me now, but my average payoff is probably in the $15 range this year. The thing they all had in common was that I felt sure they were better than they looked on paper...even those that ran like crap. :lol:

[davew]

Makes them based on off odds ,post pos , finish.

so this guys 'bias number' has nothing to do with pace and track condition during the face?

it is formulated by him from a horses 'off odds', post position and finish?

[whodoyoulike]

so this guys 'bias number' has nothing to do with pace and track condition during the face?

it is formulated by him from a horses 'off odds', post position and finish?

And, probably from his experience.

[Cratos]

P.S.

I am not talking about "Meet Biases" where over a given series of time the track favors certain gate positions.

I am considering posting an opinion on the three physical biases that I believe impacts the horse’s performance significantly in its effort to become the winner of a race at any class level or any distance.

I believe this because in general, a horse’s performance is measured by the non-parametric variable, class which is quantified by speed and stamina.

Also it should be understood that horseracing or moving objects period is best understood by Newton’s laws of motion which will always apply.

Therefore the three physical biases which I am referring to are: (1) Aerodynamic Drag (air resistance), (2) The racetrack geometric turn layout, and (3) Surface Resistance.

[Greyfox]

Also it should be understood that horseracing or moving objects period is best understood by Newton’s laws of motion which will always apply.

Therefore the three physical biases which I am referring to are: (1) Aerodynamic Drag (air resistance), (2) The racetrack geometric turn layout, and (3) Surface Resistance.

Good on you. :ThmbUp:

With air resistance and track oval constant during a given day (if not a meet), I find the #3 of great importance 1. if I can pick it up and 2. if the track maintenance people don't change it that day (which has been known to happen at several b level tracks.)

[Cratos]

Good on you. :ThmbUp:

With air resistance and track oval constant during a given day (if not a meet), I find the #3 of great importance 1. if I can pick it up and 2. if the track maintenance people don't change it that day (which has been known to happen at several b level tracks.)

Surface resistance and air resistance have the same impact on the horse, but in different quantities.

They both require the horse to use more energy to overcome their bias and that is where another equation comes in; and it is the distribution of energy equation.

By the way, the notion of a racetrack surface having speed is erroneous. The surface has “resistance to speed” (Newton’s 2nd Law of Motion) and it is that resistance depending on its quantity that forces the horse to use more or less energy to attain the same velocity.

Therefore given the energy usage by the horse’s motion, fatigue occurs to the horse and its energy depletion depends on distance among other things.

To solve all of this, the partial derivative of a function of the several variables comes into play.

Do you have a favorite racetrack? If so, I might have a layout of it which I will PM to you.

[classhandicapper]

so this guys 'bias number' has nothing to do with pace and track condition during the face?

it is formulated by him from a horses 'off odds', post position and finish?

It sounds like he uses odds instead of his own personal opinions of the horses to look for patterns of under and over performance that he can then attribute to a bias.

Using odds is a good approach, especially if you are trying to do a bias determination for a track and horses you don't normally follow. Then the odds will probably be more accurate than your own opinion.

But if you know the horses, see the race development, and have detailed information and pace figures (including on the day in question) IMO you can do better with a subjective analysis. Plus, post position doesn't always tell you which paths horses eventually wind up running on. It's the path biases that are more likely to lead to good plays.

If a track is more or less tiring, the jockeys tend to pick up on that and adjust the pace to compensate. If there's a path bias, they may want to get to the best path(s), but not all of them can.

[Greyfox]

Do you have a favorite racetrack? If so, I might have a layout of it which I will PM to you.

No, No don't do that, your explanations here are fine.
Usually I play So Cal, but am interested in most major tracks.

[Greyfox]

If a track is more or less tiring, the jockeys tend to pick up on that and adjust the pace to compensate. If there's a path bias, they may want to get to the best path(s), but not all of them can.

That's true of the better jockeys.
Some of the others are what Beyer refers to as pinheads.

[Cratos]

Plus, post position doesn't always tell you which paths horse eventually wind up running on.


Trakus does a good job with the dR/dD relationship.

[classhandicapper]

By the way, the notion of a racetrack surface having speed is erroneous. The surface has “resistance to speed” (Newton’s 2nd Law of Motion) and it is that resistance depending on its quantity that forces the horse to use more or less energy to attain the same velocity.

Therefore given the energy usage by the horse’s motion, fatigue occurs to the horse and its energy depletion depends on distance among other things.



You already know I think you are on to something significant here even though I haven't seen your figures to verify how well they perform. I will add that I've been making traditional final time figures for mule races. Most of the races are at 220, 350, and 400 yards. It has been an illuminating experience.

I would like to hear your explanation for why track layout being equal, turf paces tend to be slower than dirt paces, turf final times tend to be faster than dirt final times, yet despite that horses that raced from off the pace do better on turf than on dirt.

[classhandicapper]

Trakus does a good job with the dR/dD relationship.

Yes. I agree. That's what I said I primarily use it for in another thread the other day.

[whodoyoulike]

Surface resistance and air resistance have the same impact on the horse, but in different quantities.

They both require the horse to use more energy to overcome their bias and that is where another equation comes in; and it is the distribution of energy equation.

By the way, the notion of a racetrack surface having speed is erroneous. The surface has “resistance to speed” (Newton’s 2nd Law of Motion) and it is that resistance depending on its quantity that forces the horse to use more or less energy to attain the same velocity.

Therefore given the energy usage by the horse’s motion, fatigue occurs to the horse and its energy depletion depends on distance among other things.

To solve all of this, the partial derivative of a function of the several variables comes into play. ...

Wouldn't this affect all of the horses in the race? Would the effect be the same for all?

[teddy]

Just what I said. Odds pp fin. Long shot from post one wins then inside bias exists. Every horse is rated. If a pattern is there then it's inside or out.

[Cratos]

Wouldn't this affect all of the horses in the race? Would the effect be the same for all?

Yes , biases would affect all horses in a given race on a given day at a given racetrack, but they will not affect all horses the same and that is where the astute handicapper makes his/her profit by determining the effect of the biases on each horse and capitalize on it going forward.

[EMD4ME]

I find that interesting that he bets mostly to win.Lots of times I'm more unsure on HOW to bet Then What to bet . I' ve been thinking of just betting to win and maybe an exacta as a place bet using the horse most likely to beat me.

That is exactly what he does when there is a decent priced question mark that might beat him in the right situation. Instead of betting to place and taking away most of any price that he has, he will calculate what is needed in a single shot exacta (in protection of his win bet) to break even on the race or make a small profit.

[teddy]

I have heard mountain man many times talk about long odds horses on the rail winning and that meant there was a inside bias. Maybe if you can still post he can elaborate.