CJ has replaced Beyer....

[TheEdge07]

CJs pace figures are filthy...TimeformUS's pace figures,Bias indicator,adjusted final time are second to none.

Handicappers on twitter have said CJ's numbers blow away Beyer and twice on Sunday..

"Beyer #s" move over...CJ is the premier figuremaker in the country..

Many here will say CJ's numbers have been elite for a long time..

With social media,TimeformUS,Tvg..Cj has finally getting his due regonition..

[cj]

That is nice of you to say. I'll be happy if I can contribute 5% of what Beyer has to the game...he is a legend.

[TheEdge07]

That is nice of you to say. I'll be happy if I can contribute 5% of what Beyer has to the game...he is a legend.

CJ times change..everyone gets replaced..

New era...
Magic,Bird,Mj,Kobe,Lebron..
Ruth,Mantle,Bonds,Pujols,Trout
Montana,Manning,Brady,Luck..

[Stillriledup]

That is nice of you to say. I'll be happy if I can contribute 5% of what Beyer has to the game...he is a legend.

Great compliment from Edger, he loves you man. :D

Could you give us a quick tutorial on the difference between a pace figure and a figure that is just based on the final time, like Beyer or Thorograph. I know these are probably silly questions, but does this pace figure incorporate a final time figure, in other words, if a horse goes wild and runs a 43 half and opens up 15 lengths and comes to a dead stop in the lane and runs a very slow beyer figure, is that a horse who will have an amazing pace figure, or are you taking into consideration that the horse came to a walk and downgrading how fast he ran his first 2 or 3 furlongs?

[cj]

Great compliment from Edger, he loves you man. :D

Could you give us a quick tutorial on the difference between a pace figure and a figure that is just based on the final time, like Beyer or Thorograph. I know these are probably silly questions, but does this pace figure incorporate a final time figure, in other words, if a horse goes wild and runs a 43 half and opens up 15 lengths and comes to a dead stop in the lane and runs a very slow beyer figure, is that a horse who will have an amazing pace figure, or are you taking into consideration that the horse came to a walk and downgrading how fast he ran his first 2 or 3 furlongs?

Here is a start, no time to get into it today personally but I'll get back to this:

http://timeformusblog.com/2013/06/26/timeformus-speed-figures/

[TheEdge07]

Great compliment from Edger, he loves you man. :D

Could you give us a quick tutorial on the difference between a pace figure and a figure that is just based on the final time, like Beyer or Thorograph. I know these are probably silly questions, but does this pace figure incorporate a final time figure, in other words, if a horse goes wild and runs a 43 half and opens up 15 lengths and comes to a dead stop in the lane and runs a very slow beyer figure, is that a horse who will have an amazing pace figure, or are you taking into consideration that the horse came to a walk and downgrading how fast he ran his first 2 or 3 furlongs?

The example you posted is exactly what seperates his numbers..Sru cant begin to tell you how many horses win. Next time out with the example ypu posted..
Take time to read the blogs/selections

.

[thaskalos]

CJ doesn't have to "replace" Beyer; the horseplayer needs BOTH of them.

In this game...there is room for more than one man at the top. :ThmbUp:

[TheEdge07]

CJ doesn't have to "replace" Beyer; the horseplayer needs BOTH of them.

In this game...there is room for more than one man at the top. :ThmbUp:

Thas no more coupled entires. Only 1.. :lol:

[VeryOldMan]

I'll be happy if I can contribute 5% of what Beyer has to the game...he is a legend.

Good stuff. I'm showing my age - it's not always clear to me if people appreciate just how revolutionary Beyer was.

If you and the TMUS team can improve upon it - that's what this sport/country is all about. I've always respected your views, and I appreciate that you don't act like the ultimate oracle.

[The Hawk]

Beyers always have -- and they still do - drive the betting in North America. No offense to CJ but there's no comparison between the two in terms of the level of respect for the figures.

[LottaKash]

Beyers always have -- and they still do - drive the betting in North America. No offense to CJ but there's no comparison between the two in terms of the level of respect for the figures.

I would make a wager that in time, that will change....The comparison isn't being made, I believe, simply because of unawareness and/or ignorance thus far...

When something is valid and worthy, it is only a matter of time before the world catches on....and in CJ's and TF's case, soon...

[TheEdge07]

[QUOTE=LottaKash]I would make a wager that in time, that will change....The comparison isn't being made, I believe, simply because of unawareness and/or ignorance thus far...

When something is valid and worthy, it is only a matter of time before the world catches on....and in CJ's and TF's case, soon...[/QUOTE

Yep..agree..

Example take a quick glance at todays timeformsus pps today at Belmont..

winners..
2nd-Winner American Quest parked three ride in debut ran fast pace figures red numbers..jogged 3/1
3rs
Laila Jazz- up agains the bias last race closed on a speed favoring track 2 back show fast pace figure..horse is razor sharp 5/1
4th-Pretension set extremely fast pace last race..red held on..3 back same race scored..
today scored 9/1 ..razor sharp fast pace figures indicating horse in top form.
6th-Sollys Mischief...different pace scenario...SM tried to close into slow pace.blue...last race..todays pace scenario set up nicely for SM gets the needed pace and runs down the leader in mid stretch..5/1
8th-Pace Projector had the 1 wiring the field..exactly what happen 5/1..

no redboard ..i followed todays races with timeformus pps..

The pps color coded makes it easssy to read...ill take the ipad you can keep the te cassette

[Cratos]

Beyers always have -- and they still do - drive the betting in North America. No offense to CJ but there's no comparison between the two in terms of the level of respect for the figures.

I don't know if the Beyers will always be the favorites of bettors in North America, but the horse race betting market is very stagnate and it has been that way for a very long time which says to me that there is no new handicapping model that will significantly move bettors away from the Beyers.

An example of how the bettors didn't move to the next "best thing" is data to the bettors. Trakus provides better analysis data than either DRF or Equibase, but for whatever reason they have not moved the "needle."

[GameTheory]

I don't know if the Beyers will always be the favorites of bettors in North America, but the horse race betting market is very stagnate and it has been that way for a very long time which says to me that there is no new handicapping model that will significantly move bettors away from the Beyers.

An example of how the bettors didn't move to the next "best thing" is data to the bettors. Trakus provides better analysis data than either DRF or Equibase, but for whatever reason they have not moved the "needle."Can an individual even get trakus data? (easily)

[The Hawk]

An example of how the bettors didn't move to the next "best thing" is data to the bettors. Trakus provides better analysis data than either DRF or Equibase, but for whatever reason they have not moved the "needle."

Exactly right. Beyers were unavailable for four or five days when DRF went down and rather than switch to something else, players, by and large, simply waited for them to become available again. We're all creatures of habit but there's no creature of habit like the horseplayer.

[thaskalos]

CJ times change..everyone gets replaced..

New era...
Magic,Bird,Mj,Kobe,Lebron..
Ruth,Mantle,Bonds,Pujols,Trout
Montana,Manning,Brady,Luck..

Wait a minute here...I am losing you.

When you say "replacing Beyer"...do you mean as a top figure-maker...OR as a sports personality -- like Lebron replaced Kobe? Because Beyer is more than just a figure-maker; he has been the horseplayer's voice in this game for over 30 years...and the game's most flamboyant horseplayer.

And it doesn't look like he is ready to hang it up anytime soon. :)

[Tom]

Can an individual even get trakus data? (easily)

You can get limited data and not easily.
Until all track offer it, the use of it remains limited.
Like having access the first cars, but no roads.

[wiffleball whizz]

CJs pace figures are filthy...TimeformUS's pace figures,Bias indicator,adjusted final time are second to none.

Handicappers on twitter have said CJ's numbers blow away Beyer and twice on Sunday..

"Beyer #s" move over...CJ is the premier figuremaker in the country..

Many here will say CJ's numbers have been elite for a long time..

With social media,TimeformUS,Tvg..Cj has finally getting his due regonition..

Beyer is yesterday's news....

[TheEdge07]

Wait a minute here...I am losing you.

When you say "replacing Beyer"...do you mean as a top figure-maker...OR as a sports personality -- like Lebron replaced Kobe? Because Beyer is more than just a figure-maker; he has been the horseplayer's voice in this game for over 30 years...and the game's most flamboyant horseplayer.

And it doesn't look like he is ready to hang it up anytime soon. :)

As a figurmaker...

[Cratos]

Can an individual even get trakus data? (easily)

Yes, it is easy to obtain Trakus data because all tracks that offer it, offer it free. You can get Trakus data for most of the top racetracks in North America which there are less than 10.

Trakus unlike DRF and Equibase, time the horse whereas the aforementioned data providers time the race.

Is there a difference? Yes, because with Trakus you get time and distance traveled by the horse which is a fundamental part of the horse's SPEED calculation.

DRF and Equbase gives the horse's SPEED that the figure makers attempt to extrapolate into speed.

I will add that I am primary a NYRA player (they have Trakus), but in 2015 when Del Mar changes back to a dirt surface, me and my associates will add Santa Anita and Del Mar to our betting on a full time basis because of Trakus.

[Cratos]

Correction: My statement in my last post should have said that DRF and Equibase gives TIME that is extrapolated into SPEED by the figure makers.

[classhandicapper]

The best use of Trakus has nothing to do with speed, final time figures. or ground loss adjustments.

[thaskalos]

The best use of Trakus has nothing to do with speed, final time figures. or ground loss adjustments.
Trakus will be of little use to the horseplayer, unless it is more widely available, and it starts calculating the pace splits of the individual horses.

[Secondbest]

The best use of Trakus has nothing to do with speed, final time figures. or ground loss adjustments.
What would you consider the best use of trakus? Thanks in advance

[GameTheory]

Yes, it is easy to obtain Trakus data because all tracks that offer it, offer it free. You can get Trakus data for most of the top racetracks in North America which there are less than 10.Easy from where? Some tracks have it online, yes, but where is my data file? If I want it I have to write some scraping program to go get it from their website, eh? (And against their terms of service, no doubt.) Am I missing something?

[Tom]

There is a website with all the covered tracks - you need to register, but it is free.

I particularly like the overhead "replay."
Data is there, but not as a file.....MAJOR shortcoming.

http://www.trakus.com/portal.asp

[GameTheory]

There is a website with all the covered tracks - you need to register, but it is free.

I particularly like the overhead "replay."
Data is there, but not as a file.....MAJOR shortcoming.

http://www.trakus.com/portal.asp

There doesn't seem to be anything to sign up for -- it has a login page, but if you click on the "more info" link, it just kicks you back out to the link page, which links to each track's website to the trakus page. So yeah, I could scrape the data, not sure what I'd do with it...

[Tom]

Under the Contact tab, I used the T Net email to request an ID.

dsi@trakus.com

[cj]

Trakus will be of little use to the horseplayer, unless it is more widely available, and it starts calculating the pace splits of the individual horses.

Agree about the more widely available, but also needs a better format that people can actually use in a computer.

They do calculate individual pace splits of the individual horse splits already.

[cj]

Easy from where? Some tracks have it online, yes, but where is my data file? If I want it I have to write some scraping program to go get it from their website, eh? (And against their terms of service, no doubt.) Am I missing something?

No, as usual, he doesn't know what he is talking about.

[thaskalos]

Agree about the more widely available, but also needs a better format that people can actually use in a computer.

They do calculate individual pace splits of the individual horse splits already.
When I first heard of Trakus, I thought that they would provide information to the players. Instead...they are only interested in an affiliation with the tracks.

[cj]

You have the usual two (Classhandicapper and CJ ) blow smoke out of their proverbial chimney and don't have the science and statistics acumen to understand how best use the Trakus data.

If the Trakus data is not to be use for speed and ground loss then the use of sensors by Trakus is nebulous and a waste of money.

Yes, it is difficult to physical obtain, but with a little imagination and the writing of some data aqusition programs it can be done.But I want tto return to a fundamental understanding about speed in horseracing or moving objects period and that is Newton's laws applies and will always apply.

There is nothing magic or unique about calculating the speed of a horse if you have the tools to do so. It I'd true that nonparametric variables like class should be part of your equation, but is the "beauty" of the marriage between statistics and science; when they come together correctly there is a beautiful honeymoon.

I will send you a spreadsheet of a Trakus

Of course you can get Trakus data. I never said you could not. And I definitely have the ability to write a program that will grab the data, and know for a fact that Game Theory does as well. All I said it isn't very user friendly in the current format. I'd bet my house I know more about Trakus than you do, both its good points and its flaws, and yes, there are some flaws.

Pretty funny the biggest smoke blower on the site calling others smoke blowers. I'm sure it killed you to see a thread about me so you decided to derail it. Nice job.

[Exotic1]

[QUOTE=LottaKash]I would make a wager that in time, that will change....The comparison isn't being made, I believe, simply because of unawareness and/or ignorance thus far...

When something is valid and worthy, it is only a matter of time before the world catches on....and in CJ's and TF's case, soon...[/QUOTE

Yep..agree..

Example take a quick glance at todays timeformsus pps today at Belmont..

winners..
2nd-Winner American Quest parked three ride in debut ran fast pace figures red numbers..jogged 3/1
3rs
Laila Jazz- up agains the bias last race closed on a speed favoring track 2 back show fast pace figure..horse is razor sharp 5/1
4th-Pretension set extremely fast pace last race..red held on..3 back same race scored..
today scored 9/1 ..razor sharp fast pace figures indicating horse in top form.
6th-Sollys Mischief...different pace scenario...SM tried to close into slow pace.blue...last race..todays pace scenario set up nicely for SM gets the needed pace and runs down the leader in mid stretch..5/1
8th-Pace Projector had the 1 wiring the field..exactly what happen 5/1..

no redboard ..i followed todays races with timeformus pps..

The pps color coded makes it easssy to read...ill take the ipad you can keep the te cassette

Good work. Highly impressive.

[Cratos]

Of course you can get Trakus data. I never said you could not. And I definitely have the ability to write a program that will grab the data, and know for a fact that Game Theory does as well. All I said it isn't very user friendly in the current format. I'd bet my house I know more about Trakus than you do, both its good points and its flaws, and yes, there are some flaws.

Pretty funny the biggest smoke blower on the site calling others smoke blowers. I'm sure it killed you to see a thread about me so you decided to derail it. Nice job.

CJ, you are very wrong; I don't have an animus toward you. I posted on this thread because I don't believe you or anyone else will presently supplant Andy Beyer as horse racing speed figure guru and that conclusion has nothing to do with whose figures are the best.

[GameTheory]

When did Cratos become a villain around here? I haven't been around much recently, and while there are at least two currently active *insufferable blowhards* (not including myself), Cratos isn't one them. I've always thought of him as the "advanced math guy" that also isn't a total egomaniac like...those others...

[TheEdge07]

CJ, you are very wrong; I don't have an animus toward you. I posted on this thread because I don't believe you or anyone else will presently supplant Andy Beyer as horse racing speed figure guru and that conclusion has nothing to do with whose figures are the best.

Cratos many will disagree...

[thaskalos]

CJ, you are very wrong; I don't have an animus toward you. I posted on this thread because I don't believe you or anyone else will presently supplant Andy Beyer as horse racing speed figure guru and that conclusion has nothing to do with whose figures are the best.
To be fair...Cj was the FIRST to declare that he wouldn't replace Beyer.

[Cratos]

To be fair...Cj was the FIRST to declare that he wouldn't replace Beyer.

I agree, but I was explaining my motivation for posting to the thread.

[classhandicapper]

What would you consider the best use of trakus? Thanks in advance

The major problem with Trakus is that it still has some significant accuracy issues. CJ and I documented one of them in another thread several months ago. He may have found others since then, but the one I found put a halt to what I was contemplating using it for.

The best use I have found is that it makes track bias determination easier.

In the past, if you wanted to do a good job of bias determination you had to watch the replays of each race several times until you had a good line on all the horses (all the paths each took etc..). That's a very time consuming job, especially because you are often forced to review a lot of races and horses you know you'll never have any interest in betting.

I've found that with quick a quick review of the race chart and Trakus data, I can figure out what happened and where everyone was quickly. Some of the time it's so obvious I don't even bother with a replay, let alone watching the same meaningless race several times.

I don't play CD, KEE, SA, DMR, GP etc.. every day. So I don't watch all the races and take notes every day. But sometimes I want to know how the track was playing on a specific day because a horse in a race I am playing raced there. Now, instead of spending a ton of time reviewing charts and watching replays from that card, I can typically figure out what was going on in 5 minutes. I just watch the replay of horse in question. The time I am saving is freeing me up to do other productive things. I can even follow multiple circuits closely if I want. That makes it a terrific tool.

[Cratos]

Cratos many will disagree...

I realize that is conjecture on your part, but if we all think alike we wouldn't think at all.

[TheEdge07]

To be fair...Cj was the FIRST to declare that he wouldn't replace Beyer.

Everyone gets replaced..No one could ever replace what Beyer has brought to this game..

Racing has trouble letting history go...Beyer has his loyal fans since the 70's that will never change
Heard Beyer at the woodbime seminar it was great but it wasnt different..We know the Swale exacta,the Beyer hole...
Talk to us about the NOW..
IMO CJ is the now...
Im on twitter i read whats being said....Things change

[classhandicapper]

I'm not even sure Beyer has the most influence on the board of all the figure makers. Naturally more people look at Beyer figures than any other set of figures and they are quoted in the DRF all the time. However, there are a lot of huge bettors among Thorograph and Ragozin players impacting the odds. They could be more influential.

[cj's dad]

I spoke to Andy Beyer seven or eight years ago at Laurel Park. I identified myself as one who knew cj, Andy told me that he was very impressed with cj's pacefigures.com website. Andy was very cordial and a pleasure to spend 10-15 minutes with. He has no problem with competition as I am sure that cj feels the same, as he has stated in previous posts on this thread.

[Greyfox]

I spoke to Andy Beyer seven or eight years ago at Laurel Park. I identified myself as one who knew cj, Andy told me that he was very impressed with cj's pacefigures.com website. Andy was very cordial and a pleasure to spend 10-15 minutes with. He has no problem with competition as I am sure that cj feels the same, as he has stated in previous posts on this thread.

Yes!:ThmbUp:

Good post.

Because Beyer knows, as cj knows (and other advanced students of this game such as Cratos and Classhandicapper also know) that while good "numbers"are a strong aid to the average horseplayer, to win money consistently at this game in the long run requires more than just numbers.

[iceknight]

When did Cratos become a villain around here? I haven't been around much recently, and while there are at least two currently active *insufferable blowhards* (not including myself), Cratos isn't one them. I've always thought of him as the "advanced math guy" that also isn't a total egomaniac like...those others... That is his personal opinion, not a demonstrated fact. He is still learning the difference between speed and time. on top of that, he needs to CUT back on his style of CONDESCENDING posts.

[thaskalos]

Everyone gets replaced..No one could ever replace what Beyer has brought to this game..

Racing has trouble letting history go...Beyer has his loyal fans since the 70's that will never change
Heard Beyer at the woodbime seminar it was great but it wasnt different..We know the Swale exacta,the Beyer hole...
Talk to us about the NOW..
IMO CJ is the now...
Im on twitter i read whats being said....Things change

As someone else mentioned in this thread...Beyer has already been replaced as the premier figure-maker. In fact...it's debatable that he ever deserved that title anyway. Many informed players -- myself included -- have long thought that Ragozin was the better figure-maker. What Beyer gets credit for is bringing accurate speed figures to the long-suffering masses...who had to either deal with the insufferable speed figures previously found in the DRF...or spring for very expensive figures from private sources. Beyer may be best KNOWN for his figures...but his role as a "figure-maker" is only a minor aspect of what he has meant to the game. Beyer was the man who "legitimized" handicapping...by taking it from the hands of the unscrupulous system-peddlers, and turning it into the intellectual pursuit that it is today. Others also played a part in this development, of course...but Beyer was always a cut above.

The renegade gambler, who never wanted to be "too respectable"...ended up becoming the most respected name in the game. Well deserved! :ThmbUp:

[Robert Goren]

As someone else mentioned in this thread...Beyer has already been replaced as the premier figure-maker. In fact...it's debatable that he ever deserved that title anyway. Many informed players -- myself included -- have long thought that Ragozin was the better figure-maker. What Beyer gets credit for is bringing accurate speed figures to the long-suffering masses...who had to either deal with the insufferable speed figures previously found in the DRF...or spring for very expensive figures from private sources. Beyer may be best KNOWN for his figures...but his role as a "figure-maker" is only a minor aspect of what he has meant to the game. Beyer was the man who "legitimized" handicapping...by taking it from the hands of the unscrupulous system-peddlers, and turning it into the intellectual pursuit that it is today. Others also played a part in this development, of course...but Beyer was always a cut above.

The renegade gambler, who never wanted to be "too respectable"...ended up becoming the most respected name in the game. Well deserved! :ThmbUp:I am not sure he "legitimized" handicapping. What he did do was "legitimized" writing about handicapping. He spawned a new group of handicapping writers who used more scientific methods.

[thaskalos]

I am not sure he "legitimized" handicapping. What he did do was "legitimized" writing about handicapping. He spawned a new group of handicapping writers who used more scientific methods.

No...I think it was AINSLIE who first showed that a rational, well thought-out handicapping book could be written. But it was Beyer -- The Harvard undergraduate with the two-fisted betting style and the flamboyant personality -- who legitimized "handicapping".

[ronsmac]

No...I think it was AINSLIE who first showed that a rational, well thought-out handicapping book could be written. But it was Beyer -- The Harvard undergraduate with the two-fisted betting style and the flamboyant personality -- who legitimized "handicapping".I agree. Most of my friends in High School who got hooked on racing, did so because of Beyer.Oh and Bill Quirin. I had 4 or 5 friends and we'd cut class to go to Belmont.

[Flysofree]

How much does the Daily Racing Form pay Beyer for his figs?

[thaskalos]

How much does the Daily Racing Form pay Beyer for his figs?
You should be asking Beyer's accountant.

[devilsbag]

How much does the Daily Racing Form pay Beyer for his figs?

What Beyer makes from DRF is peanuts in comparison to his other endorsement deals.

Air Beyers and the hugely successful "Run to the Windows" campaign have resulted in Nike's seventh best selling shoe in the US, and the Beyer Sharpie has been a huge moneymaker for Sanford since the 1970s.

Beyer is even branching out to food products:
http://www.beyer-fr.com/boutique_us/images_produits/sitefigues-z.jpg

[GameTheory]

What Beyer makes from DRF is peanuts in comparison to his other endorsement deals.

Air Beyers and the hugely successful "Run to the Windows" campaign have resulted in Nike's seventh best selling shoe in the US, and the Beyer Sharpie has been a huge moneymaker for Sanford since the 1970s.

Beyer is even branching out to food products:
http://www.beyer-fr.com/boutique_us/images_produits/sitefigues-z.jpgCan't wait for this year's Oktoberfest Beyerbrau...

[iceknight]

Can't wait for this year's Oktoberfest Beyerbrau... Do you mean Weissbeyer?

[GameTheory]

mmmmmm