Another Bris - Beyer question?

[Flysofree]

Using the same track, date and races how often will the last race Bris figure and last race Beyer figure be the SAME as to which horse has the top figure in that race. ( I know they are calculated differently but am interested in how often they will both have the same horse being their top figure ).

[cj]

I don't know of anyone that would maintain a database with both sets of data.

[Flysofree]

My guess is someone knows, but they aren't telling... :)

[cj]

My guess is someone knows, but they aren't telling... :)

Data costs so much, it would seem crazy to buy two sets of data when 95% of it is the same.

[GameTheory]

Data costs so much, it would seem crazy to buy two sets of data when 95% of it is the same.
If anybody has a bunch of BRIS data from a couple years back I could find out. (Even pdfs). I have a few years of formulator data, but stopped getting it early 2013 I think when the desktop program stopped working. I also have HDW data (Jim Cramer figs) going back many years.

I'm curious myself because I've spent the last couple weeks inventing my own new kind of speed figures (I had some weird ideas to try) so looking to compare them to what's out there. CJ, your figs are web-only or do you have data files too?

[Show Me the Wire]

Using the same track, date and races how often will the last race Bris figure and last race Beyer figure be the SAME as to which horse has the top figure in that race. ( I know they are calculated differently but am interested in how often they will both have the same horse being their top figure ).

I can't answer your question percentage wise for BRIS and Beyer or any type of speed figure. But there are people who compare 2 data services and keep records. We use to maintain data with the sheet style figures. Cost prohibitive to do for all tracks, but certainly doable for a circuit or two.

[classhandicapper]

Using the same track, date and races how often will the last race Bris figure and last race Beyer figure be the SAME as to which horse has the top figure in that race. ( I know they are calculated differently but am interested in how often they will both have the same horse being their top figure ).

I haven't done any controlled studies like that, but at various times I've had access to Beyer, CJ, Logic Dictates, Thorograph, Ragozin, Bris, and my own figures in NY at the same time.

If you go through that exercise, you will see minor differences in some of the horses in virtually every race and occasional very major differences (even when you normalize the figures for things like weight, ground loss, and pace).

Generally, if one horse is clearly a lot faster than the others, they will all have it as the fastest (but not always). If it's within a length or two, you will see differences. But you will see differences of 4-5 lengths and more on occasion.

[Flysofree]

I haven't done any controlled studies like that, but at various times I've had access to Beyer, CJ, Logic Dictates, Thorograph, Ragozin, Bris, and my own figures in NY at the same time.

If you go through that exercise, you will see minor differences in some of the horses in virtually every race and occasional very major differences (even when you normalize the figures for things like weight, ground loss, and pace).

Generally, if one horse is clearly a lot faster than the others, they will all have it as the fastest (but not always). If it's within a length or two, you will see differences. But you will see differences of 4-5 lengths and more on occasion.

Thanks. From what I'm reading here, they must have the same horse with their top figures 95% of the time..just a wild guess.

[cj]

Thanks. From what I'm reading here, they must have the same horse with their top figures 95% of the time..just a wild guess.

I would guess it isn't close to that high...maybe 75%?

A week's worth of data at all tracks would probably give you a very good estimation.

[classhandicapper]

Thanks. From what I'm reading here, they must have the same horse with their top figures 95% of the time..just a wild guess.

It's hard for me to put an exact percentage on it for just the top figure horse. I usually focus on horses I didn't like that went off at short odds and won and horses I liked that went off at long odds and ran poorly. I'll look at multiple sources to see how he rated trying to understand if I missed something. As part of that I see general differences.

[raybo]

My own personal feelings tell me that, over the long term, they are probably very close, percentage-wise.

Why do I feel like that? Well, with the widespread use of speed figures, and the widespread use of top last race fig, if there was a significant difference, wouldn't the word be out by now? There could certainly be differences in individual races, but those differences are probably split both ways, so there's a good possibility that those splits nullify themselves over time.

[Flysofree]

My own personal feelings tell me that, over the long term, they are probably very close, percentage-wise.

Why do I feel like that? Well, with the widespread use of speed figures, and the widespread use of top last race fig, if there was a significant difference, wouldn't the word be out by now? There could certainly be differences in individual races, but those differences are probably split both ways, so there's a good possibility that those splits nullify themselves over time.

I think you are correct. Probably the best idea is use one or the other (if using figs alone) and not switch back and forth.