Sat, BEL Race 3

[Cholly]

I have the utmost respect for Eric Donovan. In most cases his morning line is very predictive of the final odds, but I’m struggling with his take on this SN2X dirt sprint for colts--in particular his making Station Chief the 3rd choice at 7-2. The favorites (Ground Force & Big Deluxe) are what they are, no argument there. But I would have pegged Station Chief to have the longest odds of the remainder.

Laila’s Jazz was only a nose out of place and well clear of the rest of the field in this condition last out, and is trained by Chris Englehart--he’ll get bet. Longfor the City has a trio of close finishes at this level; he’s off a layoff, but he’s trained by Clement, and Clement’s horses always get bet. Flying Zealous’s trainer Peter Kazamias has in the past put over some shippers at prices, but not lately--NY bettors remember and usually bet his shippers.

Station Chief was 12-1 at SN1X in his last. He did pull off the upset, but the step-up from that level to SN2X is usually a steep one for colts (not so much for fillies). I would have made Ground 3-2, Big D 2-1 (the Castellano factor), Long 5-1, Flying 6-1, and Laila 8-1, which would leave Station Chief at 10-1. I know there’s a reason Mr. Donovan makes the ML and not me, but what am I missing? Does last race trump all in the minds of bettors?

My interest is not just academic. Station Chief is a kind of horse I like to bet (a 3yo with some breeding perhaps finally waking up), but not at less than 8-1 in a six-horse field. It’s an hour round trip to the simo and there’s no one else on the card I’m terribly interested in--is it possible I’ll see 8-1, or should I save the gas?

[Stillriledup]

Going on the 89 Beyer fig and a massive jockey upgrade, maybe that's why the ML is 7-2.?

I remember his win being the first leg of a pick 5, and that horse knocked me out, supposedly there was a horse off a layoff swell that was supposed to win and he was dueling on the lead instead of sitting in behind...so, maybe this horse got "lucky"? I dont know.

This wouldn't be a horse i would play here, his last performance at Belmont leaves a lot to be desired and when he got to Saratoga, he became a new horse. That would concern me a bit.

If you throwout his 89, he's basically, at best, a mid 70s type of performer while plenty of these really have no problems being consistent 80s types with the ability to run into the 90s.

If i was betting this race, and i'm probably not, i would say my edge would be betting against the 1 if he really goes off at 7-2, but my sneaking suspicion is that he will be an overlay on that Morning line, don't know if he will be the longest shot, but i have to imagine you'll get at least 9-2.

[taxicab]

I like your horse.
He could be good on Saturday.
But there's no way in the world you're going to get 8-1.
The field looks iffy at best.
:3: split the field in his last......was racing @ FL before that.
:4: Hasn't raced in 9 months.
:5: Won his first 7......stopped trying in his last 7.
:6: [3-1ml]Looked miserable the final 1/8th as the chalk in his last(probably wants the inner).....your horse will take more action than this guy.
That leaves only :2: the ml favorite for Jacobson.
I think SC will be no higher than 3-1.........if he's 8-1 he's dead on the board and probably won't fire anyway.

[zico20]

I have the utmost respect for Eric Donovan. In most cases his morning line is very predictive of the final odds, but I’m struggling with his take on this SN2X dirt sprint for colts--in particular his making Station Chief the 3rd choice at 7-2. The favorites (Ground Force & Big Deluxe) are what they are, no argument there. But I would have pegged Station Chief to have the longest odds of the remainder.

Laila’s Jazz was only a nose out of place and well clear of the rest of the field in this condition last out, and is trained by Chris Englehart--he’ll get bet. Longfor the City has a trio of close finishes at this level; he’s off a layoff, but he’s trained by Clement, and Clement’s horses always get bet. Flying Zealous’s trainer Peter Kazamias has in the past put over some shippers at prices, but not lately--NY bettors remember and usually bet his shippers.

Station Chief was 12-1 at SN1X in his last. He did pull off the upset, but the step-up from that level to SN2X is usually a steep one for colts (not so much for fillies). I would have made Ground 3-2, Big D 2-1 (the Castellano factor), Long 5-1, Flying 6-1, and Laila 8-1, which would leave Station Chief at 10-1. I know there’s a reason Mr. Donovan makes the ML and not me, but what am I missing? Does last race trump all in the minds of bettors?

My interest is not just academic. Station Chief is a kind of horse I like to bet (a 3yo with some breeding perhaps finally waking up), but not at less than 8-1 in a six-horse field. It’s an hour round trip to the simo and there’s no one else on the card I’m terribly interested in--is it possible I’ll see 8-1, or should I save the gas?

Before simulcasting was made available, I on a few occasions drove from St. Louis to either Chicago or Ellis Park to bet on a Fairmount Park horse that was running there. It didn't matter to me what the odds were on the horse, if he was going to be even money or 10-1. If I thought I was going to make a lot of money, I went. I mean, what else are you going to spend that hour on.

Also, if you are worried about saving gas, here is a suggestion. Just fill up and then drive off without paying, problem solved. ;)

[the little guy]

Scratched

[Cholly]

Before simulcasting was made available, I on a few occasions drove from St. Louis to either Chicago or Ellis Park to bet on a Fairmount Park horse that was running there. It didn't matter to me what the odds were on the horse, if he was going to be even money or 10-1. If I thought I was going to make a lot of money, I went. I mean, what else are you going to spend that hour on.

Also, if you are worried about saving gas, here is a suggestion. Just fill up and then drive off without paying, problem solved. ;)
Not sure if you'll cut the mustard playing the horses for a living with that attitude--but no doubt you'll make an excellent Life Coach!

Thanks to your sage advice, I've made some new friends:
http://www.badboysbailbonds.com/