Did Clearly Now bounce?

[TheEdge07]

LIfetime best huge effort 2 months ago..Ran dead last Saturday.

Did Clearly Now bounce?

[EMD4ME]

Huge effort 2 months ago..Ran dead last Saturday.

Did Clearly Now bounce?

Now 0/5 off a layoff.... that could have been a factor.

[TheEdge07]

Now 0/5 off a layoff.... that could have been a factor.

Agree.

[EMD4ME]

Agree.

Any time I see a top quality horse come off a break or a layoff in late August, September or early October, I get worried it's a prep for the breeders cup. That as well...

[Stillriledup]

Probably something deeper than a bounce. Bounce to the moon is more like it. Hopefully its just something minor, he's too good of a horse to race that bad without a legit excuse.

[EMD4ME]

Probably something deeper than a bounce. Bounce to the moon is more like it. Hopefully its just something minor, he's too good of a horse to race that bad without a legit excuse.

Did you pass 15,000???? If yes, CONGRATULATIONS MR. SRU!!!!!! :jump:

[cj]

A bounce off a two month layoff? Come on...

[TheEdge07]

[QUOTE=cj]A bounce off a two month layoff? Come on...[/QUOTE

CJ could the same arguement be used if he had run back too soon?

[Stillriledup]

Did you pass 15,000???? If yes, CONGRATULATIONS MR. SRU!!!!!! :jump:

No, but i'll be there soon! Appreciate the congrats! :D

[Tall One]

A bounce off a two month layoff? Come on...




Agreed. If he'd ran ITM/or close too it, they're sending for one under the belt..it's a plan for down the road...but last? Pause for a cause.

[netbet]

I think Steve Byk and Andy Serling had this discussion earlier today.

[taxicab]

Probably something deeper than a bounce. Bounce to the moon is more like it. Hopefully its just something minor, he's too good of a horse to race that bad without a legit excuse.
I agree.
It looked like something went wrong with him during the race.
I think the Pan/Head On are cause for concern.
Injury?
Something amiss ?
We know he loves Belmont,so if he doesn't show up for the fall meet I think he's done for the year.

[Some_One]

Saratoga ain't Belmont

[magwell]

I agree.
It looked like something went wrong with him during the race.
I think the Pan/Head On are cause for concern.
Injury?
Something amiss ?
We know he loves Belmont,so if he doesn't show up for the fall meet I think he's done for the year.I agree it looked that way, something was wrong the way he was traveling on the turn.......

[taxicab]

Here's both replays.
The NYRA has a great website.


http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/STD/2014/20140830/10/pan/


http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/STD/2014/20140830/10/headon/

[cj]

Skipping the G1 after his win was not a good sign.

[magwell]

Here's both replays.
The NYRA has a great website.


http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/STD/2014/20140830/10/pan/


http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/STD/2014/20140830/10/headon/From the head on, it looked like he took a bad step at about the 1/8 pole, not on the turn.......

[Tall One]

I agree.
It looked like something went wrong with him during the race.
I think the Pan/Head On are cause for concern.
Injury?
Something amiss ?
We know he loves Belmont,so if he doesn't show up for the fall meet I think he's done for the year.


All of this is correct, but he took a bad step late..Lynch seems too be a smart trainer, so my guess is he's done for the year.


/pause for the cause.

[Speed Figure]

I don't believe he bounced at all! He did run his best rating in his last race, but was off 56 days and had 4 work outs too. I think the main thing is he had never won carrying more than 117 pounds in his last 10 starts and was carrying 123 in this race. In his last race he only carried 116 pounds.

[classhandicapper]

He ran so poorly it's hard to argue in favor of that performance, but that was a very biased racetrack on Saturday. He had little chance the way the race was run and was not used late. There's no way he ran as poorly as it looks. Unless he came out of the race with "issues" (which is possible based on the way the jock reacted at one point in the stretch), he'll give a much better account of himself next time.

[cj]

He ran so poorly it's hard to argue in favor of that performance, but that was a very biased racetrack on Saturday. He had little chance the way the race was run and he was not used late. There's no way he ran as poorly as it looks. Unless he came out of the race with "issues", he'll give a much better account of himself next time.

Agree, and this is why I have a problem with the whole bounce concept. In most cases, thorough handicapping can often explain both the big figure and the regression. Bounce just seems lazy to me.

[classhandicapper]

Agree, and this is why I have a problem with the whole bounce concept. In most cases, thorough handicapping can often explain both the big figure and the regression. Bounce just seems lazy to me.

I saw one analysis that said 8 weeks rest wasn't enough. He needed 12 weeks off his big race. I think Wise Dan recovered from surgery faster than that. ;)

[tophatmert]

Agree, and this is why I have a problem with the whole bounce concept. In most cases, thorough handicapping can often explain both the big figure and the regression. Bounce just seems lazy to me.
CJ do you believe a big effort can set a horse back for a race or two ?

[cj]

CJ do you believe a big effort can set a horse back for a race or two ?

At times, yes, but you have to consider the circumstances. I don't think there is any way to use the bounce theory for a race two months later. I just think the term is used WAY too liberally.

[tophatmert]

I think a lot of bad things happen to horses after they run a big top. I think these horses are overbet off of that effort. It is that combination that is attractive to me. 3 and 4 year olds are a tough call but olders off of big tops are always horses I am looking to play against.

[taxicab]

Clearly Now has been shelved until next year.