Does Brisnet make adjustments when it comes to their race shapes?

[cutchemist42]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=GP&race=6&param1=80&param2=4320&param3=857964

Looking at the last 2 races along with the 4th back for the 6 Haywired. All three are 6f, OC10ks.

The 2nd call times and their race shapes are:

45.4 with a race shape -5
45.1 with a race shape +2
45.2 with a race shape +1

So I'm just wondering, are the race shapes adjusted for the track's times that day?

[cj]

Isn't this a pace figure to speed figure relationship?

[cutchemist42]

Isn't this a pace figure to speed figure relationship?

Hmmm, maybe I've been understanding it wrong? I thought it was always saying that race for that class had a faster/slower 1st/2nd call than nomal.

[MNslappy]

WHAT ARE THE BRIS RACE SHAPES?
The BRIS Race Shapes measure how fast the leader ran relative to the average leader time for the race's final time. The faster the leader's pace, the higher the BRIS Race Shape (eg. +7). The slower the leader's pace, the lower the BRIS Race Shape (eg. -7).

more here (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=raceshapes_lib) though it doesnt really answer the questions on how/if/when they make adjustments

[Tom]

I have found it to be just the race shape, no adjustments made.
If a SR is 94 and the average E2 for that is 88, an 86 would be slow 2.

[cutchemist42]

It just got me thinking about it because Brisnet shows the official times but with different race shapes for similar times makes me wonder if they do adjustments to the official times before applying race shapes.

I know Timeform will give you the option of official vs adjusted times, with color coded numbers for fast/slow. Semi-related then, but are those color-coded fast/slows based off the adjusted times?

[cj]

It just got me thinking about it because Brisnet shows the official times but with different race shapes for similar times makes me wonder if they do adjustments to the official times before applying race shapes.

I know Timeform will give you the option of official vs adjusted times, with color coded numbers for fast/slow. Semi-related then, but are those color-coded fast/slows based off the adjusted times?

Yes, they are definitely based on adjusted times.

[Clocker]

The 2nd call times and their race shapes are:

45.4 with a race shape -5
45.1 with a race shape +2
45.2 with a race shape +1


The -5 indicates that the 45 4/5 time was 5 points slower than par time for that class. Bris uses 2 points per length, so that would be 2 1/2 lengths slow. The +2 indicates 2 points (1 length) faster than par.

So those number show the first race 3/5 slower than the second, and the race shape 7 points (3 1/2 lengths) slower. The 3/5 should be 6 points, but the difference could be rounding error if the underlying calculations are using decimals rather than fifths of a second.

The second race shows 1/5 faster than the 3rd. That should be a 2 point difference, and the race shapes show 1 point. Again, possibly reflecting hundredths vs. fifths.

[cutchemist42]

Here's another one that makes me wonder again.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CBY&race=5&param1=66&param2=2970&param3=674690

Looking at the :6: Cowboy Luke.

Last two races are 4000n1y, 1m70s. I guess not every 4000n1y gets the same horses so maybe thats where the difference is?

Aug 10: 113 with a +6 race shape
July 27: 113.1 with a -7 race shape

[cj]

Here's another one that makes me wonder again.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CBY&race=5&param1=66&param2=2970&param3=674690

Looking at the :6: Cowboy Luke.

Last two races are 4000n1y, 1m70s. I guess not every 4000n1y gets the same horses so maybe thats where the difference is?

Aug 10: 113 with a +6 race shape
July 27: 113.1 with a -7 race shape

I think the confusion is this...you see the pace and speed figures for the horse, but the race shape is based on the pace and speed figures for the leader/winner.

In the Aug 6th race, you see +6, and Cowboy Luke won wire to wire. His pace figure at E2 was 91, speed figure was 85, thus +6. Fractions don't have anything to do with it, you are seeing the difference between the E2 and speed figure of the leader/winner. If you could see those figures, it would be more clear.

[cutchemist42]

I think the confusion is this...you see the pace and speed figures for the horse, but the race shape is based on the pace and speed figures for the leader/winner.

In the Aug 6th race, you see +6, and Cowboy Luke won wire to wire. His pace figure at E2 was 91, speed figure was 85, thus +6. Fractions don't have anything to do with it, you are seeing the difference between the E2 and speed figure of the leader/winner. If you could see those figures, it would be more clear.

OH!

So it doesnt have anything to do with the normal E2 time for that class compared to what E2 was run in a particular race by the leader at the time then? It's just comparing the winning speed number with whatever E2 time the leader had at the call?

[cj]

OH!

So it doesnt have anything to do with the normal E2 time for that class compared to what E2 was run in a particular race by the leader at the time then? It's just comparing the winning speed number with whatever E2 time the leader had at the call?

I think so, but obviously I don't use BRIS.

[fmolf]

OH!

So it doesnt have anything to do with the normal E2 time for that class compared to what E2 was run in a particular race by the leader at the time then? It's just comparing the winning speed number with whatever E2 time the leader had at the call?
I think it is the leaders E2 pace & late pace number against the par numbers for that class of horses.All Bris numbers are adjusted by their track variant and their method of making one.Every good figuremaker will tell you that methods of making the variant and other adjustments they may take into account differ greatly from figmaker to figmaker.

[Cratos]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=GP&race=6&param1=80&param2=4320&param3=857964

Looking at the last 2 races along with the 4th back for the 6 Haywired. All three are 6f, OC10ks.

The 2nd call times and their race shapes are:

45.4 with a race shape -5
45.1 with a race shape +2
45.2 with a race shape +1

So I'm just wondering, are the race shapes adjusted for the track's times that day?

I don't if you have read the attachment, but it might bring some clarity to your question.

[cj]

I think it is the leaders E2 pace & late pace number against the par numbers for that class of horses.All Bris numbers are adjusted by their track variant and their method of making one.Every good figuremaker will tell you that methods of making the variant and other adjustments they may take into account differ greatly from figmaker to figmaker.

Everything I see points to it being leader's E2 figure minus the winner's speed figure. It doesn't look any more complicated than that. I'm not sure where all these other suppositions are coming from to be honest. Start by looking at the race shape of races where the horses went wire to wire and it becomes clear. It has nothing to do with pars or late pace, strictly E2 and speed figure.

If I'm wrong, somebody can correct me, but I don't see any evidence that I'm off base.

[cj]

I'm convinced now. In the Canterbury PPs posted, check out the race of 6-29 by the 4 and 5 horse. The 5 horse led at the E2 call with an 82, the 4 horse came on to win from 6th with a speed figure of 80. 82 - 80 = 2, and both horses show a race shape that day of +2.

[Tom]

The BRIS pars for a race SR of 98 are 97 104 98

This pace line is 98 106 98, so the race shape is +1 +2

If the horse was not leading at E1 or E2, multiply the beaten lengths by 2 and add to the pace rating.

In routes, the E2 pars is always equals to the speed rating.
It varies in sprints, and E1 varies in both.

I made a chart of the BRIS pars by SR - I'll dig it up and post it.

[Tom]

BRIS pace pars by Speed Rating - Sprints

[Tom]

BRIS pace pars by Speed Rating - Routes

[Speed Figure]

Most G1 sprints for 3 & up males on dirt are 99 109 101 106 & Most G1 routes for 3 & up males on dirt are 96 107 95 107.