Poindexter
08-30-2014, 05:49 PM
Extremely Challenging pick 4 tonight. As usual horses in post position order not order of preference. I am actually going to suggest a pass here as $120 seems like way too much given the very iffy nature of the last race and also I am leaving out a number of contenders in other races. So for the record no play. Just providing my analysis for anyone interested. Good luck.
10th) 2-4-8
2) Major Monet-held on vs cheaper in last earning a good figure. Prior was strong as well, used hard throughout and held fairly well. This is his level, has tactical speed to maybe get a trip and must be used.
4) Don’t Worry be Happy-just missed at this level last 2, tactical speed for a
trip and a big chance here.
8) Our Dragon King-Obviously if he runs back to the 7/26 race the rest are racing for place money. That is highly unlikely however. After that effort he was scratched at HP then stopped vs better when setting a ridiculously fast pace(an effort than probably makes him better than these). Was bet down to 7/5 at this level last week from the rail, then broke before the start to lose position, rail rode after that and wasn’t persevered with when behind a wall of horses. Obviously is a solid fit at the level.
I will draw the line with these 3 though other contenders(none of these would really surprise me) include
Holy Chip who rail rode and came home evenly in last
No Fear no Doubt, who had some trouble 2 back and then just missed vs cheaper in last earning a figure that fits well in here,
Big Brad who has consistently good TM figures, was unable to close into an extremely fast last ½ in last and was outclassed in prior 3, another solid fit at this level, but 9 hole, no early speed, and mediocre driver.
Furious Frank is very sharp right now,has tactical speed to leave and grab a mid pack tuck which seem to be available at asking at this track and also has a chance.
11th) 1-3-5-6-7
DP Angel-3rd over into that 27 second last quarter in last closed well. Did not like the 2st over journey at Maywood, but other than that solid efforts pretty much every week. Very good fit at this level.
Ryleigh’s Lilly-not the most consistent horse on the grounds. Sometimes she races well other times she sort of stinks it up. Should have raced better 2 back, but came up with a big effort last out completely dominating weaker. ¼ mved to the top, shuffled 3 h, 1st over ft and cruised with a last ¼ of 26.2. Very stong effot. Has compete well at this level before(7/26 for example) and must be respected on the class raise).
Hello My Dream-If today was 8/9 I would be all over this horse, but last 2 races where he shipped out she was beaten a 4/5 and 1/5(not exactly a good sign). Now 2 back was especially bad as she ¼ moved in the slow 2nd ¼ and still fell apart., the last effort was a little better as she sat last and at least closed some. Perhaps rounding back into form and back at home, she can give a better effort. Prior races at Balmoral would make here very strong in here.
6) The Bruzillian Blur-was last at the ¾ pole in last (trying to lose into a 27 second last ¼, was 2nd horse 3 wd late ft, had to angle wide and closed solidly. In prior was hard used in a ¼ move in the fast 2nd ¼ eventually was in the pocket behind the favorite, who broke in front of him in the lane, impeding and shuflfling her some and then I think she may have run out of room late(no head on toverify). A very solid fit in here.
7) Just by Design-some kind of accident in last. I will just ignore the race as I have no idea what happened. Prior effort was rock solid against scorching sharp Party Hangover. She was the only oher horse in the race to finish with pace. Obviously the 7 hole is a concern but she can leave and there is not a lot of early speed inside of her.
Notice I tossed the 2 class droppers Ritascape and Love this Place who both appear off form. Also tossed Fox Valley Tocuche who is obviously a solid fit in here, but has to overcome the 10 hole. Obviously none of these would shock me.
12th)2-3-6-8
2) Lucky Crusader-Had no chance last 3rd over from last in a 54.3 last 1.2, closed as well as he could vs better. 2 back was completely outclassed. 3 back was also asked to come from 7th in a 54.3 last ½. Nothing wrong with his current form, now he is drawn inside and gets a well needed class drop. Big shot vs these.
3) Cantholdmebackmack-Is very solid when doesn’t break at Maywood. TM doesn’t give him very good figures but based off of my figures I give him a big look assuming he doesn’t break.
6) Just a cowboy-3 wd 1/8th tucked 3 hl in last. Rail road, and finished with pace the last ¼ in 26.4. Prior he just missed to Lennox Blue chip who came back to win at the nw 9500 level last week.
8) Prairie Thunder-ran huge 1st over from 7th the last ½ in 55 flat. Stuck outside again, which is a huge concern as there is likely too much speed inside of him for him to grab a tuck, so best chance would be if the race goes too fast early. Sort of borderline whether to use or toss him, but I ultimately decided to include him.
13th)2-7
This race is brutally tough. I am going to go 2 deep in here, do not have a lot of confidence that either will get there, but just cannot see using anyone else in here.
2) Svaya Knows-Visually unimpressive in last as he was 3rd over, swung 3wd late ft and came up completely empty. However, the last ¼ came 27.1 and frankly not sure this horse is capable of making an impact in that situation.. 2 back was used most of the 27.3 1st quarter, sat a 2 hole trip and was no match for a very sharp LA Camcharger. Also was not really driven late when the outcome was clearly decided. No world beater but a solid fit at this level.
7) Exravagant Art-This horse actually has some ability but continually get horrible drives and rough trips. The effort 7/19 would beat this field even from the 7 hole.. Do not like the fat he missed a week after missing 3 weeks prior to last. In last he attempted to leave got looped, tucked 4 hl, rail road, appeared to have some pace but tried to angle and never really had anywhere to race. The 7/26 race was much of the same. Lv tuck 5 hole, rail rode and had nowhere to race. The bad news is that there is speed inside of him(2-4-6 all could go) and he hasn’t been very quick off the gate since 7/19. If he can get a trip, he is the best horse in here and perhaps at a good price can get the job done.
10th) 2-4-8
2) Major Monet-held on vs cheaper in last earning a good figure. Prior was strong as well, used hard throughout and held fairly well. This is his level, has tactical speed to maybe get a trip and must be used.
4) Don’t Worry be Happy-just missed at this level last 2, tactical speed for a
trip and a big chance here.
8) Our Dragon King-Obviously if he runs back to the 7/26 race the rest are racing for place money. That is highly unlikely however. After that effort he was scratched at HP then stopped vs better when setting a ridiculously fast pace(an effort than probably makes him better than these). Was bet down to 7/5 at this level last week from the rail, then broke before the start to lose position, rail rode after that and wasn’t persevered with when behind a wall of horses. Obviously is a solid fit at the level.
I will draw the line with these 3 though other contenders(none of these would really surprise me) include
Holy Chip who rail rode and came home evenly in last
No Fear no Doubt, who had some trouble 2 back and then just missed vs cheaper in last earning a figure that fits well in here,
Big Brad who has consistently good TM figures, was unable to close into an extremely fast last ½ in last and was outclassed in prior 3, another solid fit at this level, but 9 hole, no early speed, and mediocre driver.
Furious Frank is very sharp right now,has tactical speed to leave and grab a mid pack tuck which seem to be available at asking at this track and also has a chance.
11th) 1-3-5-6-7
DP Angel-3rd over into that 27 second last quarter in last closed well. Did not like the 2st over journey at Maywood, but other than that solid efforts pretty much every week. Very good fit at this level.
Ryleigh’s Lilly-not the most consistent horse on the grounds. Sometimes she races well other times she sort of stinks it up. Should have raced better 2 back, but came up with a big effort last out completely dominating weaker. ¼ mved to the top, shuffled 3 h, 1st over ft and cruised with a last ¼ of 26.2. Very stong effot. Has compete well at this level before(7/26 for example) and must be respected on the class raise).
Hello My Dream-If today was 8/9 I would be all over this horse, but last 2 races where he shipped out she was beaten a 4/5 and 1/5(not exactly a good sign). Now 2 back was especially bad as she ¼ moved in the slow 2nd ¼ and still fell apart., the last effort was a little better as she sat last and at least closed some. Perhaps rounding back into form and back at home, she can give a better effort. Prior races at Balmoral would make here very strong in here.
6) The Bruzillian Blur-was last at the ¾ pole in last (trying to lose into a 27 second last ¼, was 2nd horse 3 wd late ft, had to angle wide and closed solidly. In prior was hard used in a ¼ move in the fast 2nd ¼ eventually was in the pocket behind the favorite, who broke in front of him in the lane, impeding and shuflfling her some and then I think she may have run out of room late(no head on toverify). A very solid fit in here.
7) Just by Design-some kind of accident in last. I will just ignore the race as I have no idea what happened. Prior effort was rock solid against scorching sharp Party Hangover. She was the only oher horse in the race to finish with pace. Obviously the 7 hole is a concern but she can leave and there is not a lot of early speed inside of her.
Notice I tossed the 2 class droppers Ritascape and Love this Place who both appear off form. Also tossed Fox Valley Tocuche who is obviously a solid fit in here, but has to overcome the 10 hole. Obviously none of these would shock me.
12th)2-3-6-8
2) Lucky Crusader-Had no chance last 3rd over from last in a 54.3 last 1.2, closed as well as he could vs better. 2 back was completely outclassed. 3 back was also asked to come from 7th in a 54.3 last ½. Nothing wrong with his current form, now he is drawn inside and gets a well needed class drop. Big shot vs these.
3) Cantholdmebackmack-Is very solid when doesn’t break at Maywood. TM doesn’t give him very good figures but based off of my figures I give him a big look assuming he doesn’t break.
6) Just a cowboy-3 wd 1/8th tucked 3 hl in last. Rail road, and finished with pace the last ¼ in 26.4. Prior he just missed to Lennox Blue chip who came back to win at the nw 9500 level last week.
8) Prairie Thunder-ran huge 1st over from 7th the last ½ in 55 flat. Stuck outside again, which is a huge concern as there is likely too much speed inside of him for him to grab a tuck, so best chance would be if the race goes too fast early. Sort of borderline whether to use or toss him, but I ultimately decided to include him.
13th)2-7
This race is brutally tough. I am going to go 2 deep in here, do not have a lot of confidence that either will get there, but just cannot see using anyone else in here.
2) Svaya Knows-Visually unimpressive in last as he was 3rd over, swung 3wd late ft and came up completely empty. However, the last ¼ came 27.1 and frankly not sure this horse is capable of making an impact in that situation.. 2 back was used most of the 27.3 1st quarter, sat a 2 hole trip and was no match for a very sharp LA Camcharger. Also was not really driven late when the outcome was clearly decided. No world beater but a solid fit at this level.
7) Exravagant Art-This horse actually has some ability but continually get horrible drives and rough trips. The effort 7/19 would beat this field even from the 7 hole.. Do not like the fat he missed a week after missing 3 weeks prior to last. In last he attempted to leave got looped, tucked 4 hl, rail road, appeared to have some pace but tried to angle and never really had anywhere to race. The 7/26 race was much of the same. Lv tuck 5 hole, rail rode and had nowhere to race. The bad news is that there is speed inside of him(2-4-6 all could go) and he hasn’t been very quick off the gate since 7/19. If he can get a trip, he is the best horse in here and perhaps at a good price can get the job done.