Anybody going against Wise Dan ?

[JustRalph]

Anybody think this might be a good time to bet against Wise Dan?

I might go with the :3: :8:

If you get Wise Dan out of the money? What does the exacta/Tri pay?

[PhantomOnTour]

Short field with the MTO's going to scratch.
I am 95% sure I will pass

[PhantomOnTour]

Short field with the MTO's going to scratch.
I am 95% sure I will pass
What am I saying?
Still eight runners after the MTO's

(note to self: turn the page) :bang:

[cj]

Have to go against IMO

[Stillriledup]

On Feb 26th, 2010, Wise Dan made his first lifetime start at Turfway Park of all places on the Poly.

He made a good run up the rail, opened up a 3 length lead and came to such an abrupt stop in the deepstretch that rival horses behind him basically had to pull up so as to not cause an accident by running into him.

What were the odds, at that very moment, that Wise Dan would be a back to back horse of the year at some point in his life? If you would have said that walking out of Turfway that night, someone would have put you in one of those white coat thingamajigs and took you somewhere safe.

A horse by Wiseman's Ferry who's stopping in the bitter cold wind as a first time starter at Turfway in the dead of winter running a 43 Beyer turned into a 2 time Horse of the Year.

If that could happen, anything in this game is possible.

[OTM Al]

Race is a pass for me. Was initially going to go against, but once I saw the competition decided it was far better just to watch. Lose enough at Saratoga without playing a race like this....

[DeltaLover]

I guess today is the day to ago against the champ.

Of course is he is what he used to be last year, there is little doubt he is crashing this field as usual but in his last race he sent the message that age is catching up with him, so he probably is not the super horse we saw in the past and there might be some value betting against him...

The problem though is, that even if we assume Dan is going to underperform for sure, still there is another obvious top level horse (Lea) that is going to be the easy alternative again offering no betting value..

Having said these, I think that in the race I will only concentrate on the top spot, using it on double or even pick three, trying to beat both the old champ and his main rival as well, looking for the upset in odds in the range of 15-1 and more...

[OTM Al]

I guess today is the day to ago against the champ.

Of course is he is what he used to be last year, there is little doubt he is crashing this field as usual but in his last race he sent the message that age is catching up with him, so he probably is not the super horse we saw in the past and there might be some value betting against him...

The problem though is, that even if we assume Dan is going to underperform for sure, still there is another obvious top level horse (Lea) that is going to be the easy alternative again offering no betting value..

Having said these, I think that in the race I will only concentrate on the top spot, using it on double or even pick three, trying to beat both the old champ and his main rival as well, looking for the upset in odds in the range of 15-1 and more...

Lea is an MTO and looking outside right now, he ain't running.

[DeltaLover]

Lea is an MTO and looking outside right now, he ain't running.

You right of course... I missed that he was MTO! LOL!!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The :3: and :6: are a bit interesting in here.

The :3: North Star Boy, if for no other reason has Irad Ortiz in the saddle. This is probably a bit much for him though.

The :6: is throwing on blinkers. He does have some talent, but just seems to find trouble. Not sure how his ML is shorter than that of the :2: or :3: :confused:

The :10: Sky Blazer may well be rolling into a hot pace scenario here, and he has ran well at the distance.

[burnsy]

Race is a pass for me. Was initially going to go against, but once I saw the competition decided it was far better just to watch. Lose enough at Saratoga without playing a race like this....

I agree, he's vulnerable but the competition is sort of weak.....tough call. I won't pass. Probably play exactas with and without him.

[TheEdge07]

Five Irons

[OTM Al]

Stared at this one some more and still can't say who will win. 8 seems to be a bit of a wise guy pick and the 3 doesn't look good enough to win but has all the marks of hitting the board. And that's the extent of what I can figure. Was thinking of playing my first P5 ever for kicks but this race will likely put me off that.

[Valuist]

On Feb 26th, 2010, Wise Dan made his first lifetime start at Turfway Park of all places on the Poly.

He made a good run up the rail, opened up a 3 length lead and came to such an abrupt stop in the deepstretch that rival horses behind him basically had to pull up so as to not cause an accident by running into him.

What were the odds, at that very moment, that Wise Dan would be a back to back horse of the year at some point in his life? If you would have said that walking out of Turfway that night, someone would have put you in one of those white coat thingamajigs and took you somewhere safe.

A horse by Wiseman's Ferry who's stopping in the bitter cold wind as a first time starter at Turfway in the dead of winter running a 43 Beyer turned into a 2 time Horse of the Year.

If that could happen, anything in this game is possible.

Just another example of a great horse who didn't win their career debut.

[Wiley]

No doubt Wise Dan is vulnerable here, cannot be cranked up for this, giving a lot of weight and coming off a serious colic condition so this looks like a good time to play against. Looks like a hot pace so think :10: Sky Blazer has a shot to run them down. Runs well fresh and distance suits him, do not like the outside post but assume he can tuck in toward the rear. I will probably put him on top of Dan and a couple of others.

You gotta love a horse like Wise Dan and I do hope he makes a good showing, how about second this time.

Was at the 87 edition, with Manila coming off a break, huge weight assignment, odds on, gets mugged in the race and finishes I think third to a couple of nondescript types. Irony was Manila's jockey Codero taking some of his own medicine as he got ganged up on by the rest of the field.

[reckless]

I believe Wise Dan is too tough and a potential single in all horizontal bets. He's run well off a layoff; he's won carrying more than today's 127 pounds; he loves Saratoga.

But of course, nothing in racing is so simple, but I do believe his set-back wasn't as serious as first imagined. The trainer also said something to that affect. If one was to bet against Wise Dan on that basis alone, that may be a mistake.

If Wise Dan were to be beaten, I think there are three possibilities:

Boisterous gets a slight positive weight shift compared to Wise Dan from the Turf Classic this spring at CD. He's running late on a 'turn-back'.

Five Iron is the one to catch despite running in longer routes than today's 8.5 furlongs. It's my opinion that this one's best shot to win is to take the lead out of the gate so that the rest of the jockeys on the other speed horses sit back and look and wait for Wise Dan to move.

Sayaad must almost do the exact same thing as Five Iron--take an early lead and hope the rest of the field rates and waits. I am not sure if Sayaad can go on if he doesn't get the lead all by his lonesome.

I'll box these four as a saver exacta bet in case Wise Dan isn't in top shape but will key him in the top slot with my prime bets.

Good luck to all, today and everyday.

[Ocala Mike]

Yes, both the little guy and Mike Beer have the race :8: :4: .

[olddaddy]

Have live doubles with :2: :10: , that DQ skunked my pk3 and pk4.

[OTM Al]

Have live doubles with :2: :10: , that DQ skunked my pk3 and pk4.
That one got me for two pick 3s but not like they were paying anything. Still would have lost a couple bucks on them

[Shemp Howard]

likes the nine, Sayaad

[PhantomOnTour]

Is this it for Boisterous?
Old guy was once a ferocious closer and big time runner.

Win or lose, I think we will see him run for the last time in about 25mins.
Heck of a horse...12 wins from 33 starts and over $1.4million earned :ThmbUp:

Does he have another one in him today?...gets a legit pace to run at and Javier takes the mount

[PhantomOnTour]

Taking a small shot with :3: :6: on top :faint:

EX:
3-6 w 3-4-6-10
WIN:
3

Okay, lemme not be dumb here, need a small saver EX:
4-10 w 3-6 :)

[OTM Al]

Hell with it. Sitting in the stands and feeling a little bored

8,9,10/8,9,10/3,8,9,10 for a dollah!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Is this it for Boisterous?
Old guy was once a ferocious closer and big time runner.

Win or lose, I think we will see him run for the last time in about 25mins.
Heck of a horse...12 wins from 33 starts and over $1.4million earned :ThmbUp:

Does he have another one in him today?...gets a legit pace to run at and Javier takes the mount

Would love to see one more great race out of Boisterous. He was a monster for a couple of years.

Gonna do a small :2: :3: :6: :10: Ex Box and small WP :6: :10:

[JustRalph]

the :3: looks out classed here............ sitting on my hands at Lone Star Park

:8: is probably the value

[Speed Figure]

Really liking the :10: horse here. hoping the odds go up a little more.

[Stillriledup]

lol, too many people here thinking betting against Wise Dan is a smart thing, that has me worried. :D

[Stillriledup]

Wise Dan an overlay....he's Wise Dan, should be less than 4-5 here.

Is it just really this easy to say WD isnt going to win?

I think he's being "picked against" because everyone knows about his health issues....but, if we didnt know he had this "near death" scenario, would we be so quick to bet against? Would we be quick to bet against if there was "nothing wrong" with Dan other than he just got some R and R?

[olddaddy]

Wise Dan an overlay....he's Wise Dan, should be less than 4-5 here.

Is it just really this easy to say WD isnt going to win?

I think he's being "picked against" because everyone knows about his health issues....but, if we didnt know he had this "near death" scenario, would we be so quick to bet against? Would we be quick to bet against if there was "nothing wrong" with Dan other than he just got some R and R?


At 3/5 always. Please dont sctratch him

[Tom]

Boisterous

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Optimizer got 'em didn't he?

[olddaddy]

Tough beat, tough sport.

[Tom]

.17 off the track record.
What surgery?

I claim foul....my horse, Boisterous was interfered with.
He slipped and lost his footing in the class that was oozing out of Wise Dan.

[PhantomOnTour]

Optimizer got 'em didn't he?
No way....

Poor Boisterous only beat one horse.
Time to retire this guy :(

[Shemp Howard]

that's what a real race horse is all about

[OTM Al]

That was pretty good. You could even hear some noise from the "crowd". Nice comeback by Optimizer as well.

[PhantomOnTour]

that's what a real race horse is all about
Ain't many of them around these days

[ArlJim78]

damn near a huge upset there. I figured Wise Dan would gut it out, even if he's lost a step. what class that one has.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Tough beat, tough sport.

:2: Optimizer ran well. A real tough beat.

Wise Dan is still the man.

[JustRalph]

Wise Danny now just short of 7 million .........what a horse................

[nijinski]

Not many like Wise Dan !

[classhandicapper]

I'm in Saratoga. The crowd got quite loud during that stretch drive. :)

IMHO, Dan has lost a step or two from his best. But he still has one thing special. He's a bottomless pit of class. He reminds me of a champion prizefighter who's in his 30s. The reflexes and speed aren't quite the same, but he still has his heart and enough left in the tank to beat just about anyone. Like all aging great fighters, the question is will he stay in the ring for one fight too many and leave on the mat or does he still have one great fight left? I'm hoping the connections don't send him into the ring much more.

[OTM Al]

I'm in Saratoga. The crowd got quite loud during that stretch drive. :)

IMHO, Dan has lost a step or two from his best. But he still has one thing special. He's a bottomless pit of class. He reminds me of a champion prizefighter who's in his 30s. The reflexes and speed aren't quite the same, but he still has his heart and enough left in the tank to beat just about anyone. Like all aging great fighters, the question is will he stay in the ring for one fight too many and leave on the mat or does he still have one great fight left? I'm hoping the connections don't send him into the ring much more.

I was being a bit sarcastic, but it did seem the crowd was kind of light. I got there right around noon and parked on the street 2 blocks from the track. Could have gotten even closer. Only line I saw all day was for the Mac and Cheese guy, but that is quite understandable.

[classhandicapper]

I was being a bit sarcastic, but it did seem the crowd was kind of light. I got there right around noon and parked on the street 2 blocks from the track. Could have gotten even closer. Only line I saw all day was for the Mac and Cheese guy, but that is quite understandable.

I think I saw 29K.

All I know is that it was a beautiful day, Wise Dan gave me a thrill, I won a few dollars for the day because I hit the Prioress exacta, and then had a great dinner and listened to music in town. The whole day reminded me of that scene from Field of Dreams. "Is this heaven?"

[OTM Al]

I think I saw 29K.

All I know is that it was a beautiful day, Wise Dan gave me a thrill, I won a few dollars for the day because I hit the Prioress exacta, and then had a great dinner and listened to music in town. The whole day reminded me of that scene from Field of Dreams. "Is this heaven?"

That definitely was about as nice a day weather wise I have seen up there. Pretty much perfect.

[thespaah]

Five Irons
Getting into this thread after the fact...
I have Five Iron in my Equibase virtual stable.
I will leave him in there because this was a real tough spot.
Next time.