Woodward S. discussion

[letswastemoney]

I picked :7: Zivo in my analysis (http://thorofan.com/handicappers/) hoping that Moreno gets more pressure this time. It's always fun to read a discussion though!

Who do you like, and state the reasoning behind your pick?

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
2 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
7 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
8 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
9 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
10 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L

A-Coupled: Long River and Romansh

[pele polo]

ROMANSH !!!

and Itsmyluckday

Moreno 3rd.

[Robert Fischer]

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
1a Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
2 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
7 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
8 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
9 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L


The GOOD thing about Long River is that he's coupled with Romansh, the BAD thing is that he's too slow.

The GOOD thing about Romansh is that his recent form is hidden with two bad trips, the BAD thing is that he has yet to prove he's a Grade-1 contender.

The GOOD thing about Itsmyluckyday is that he is a solid Grade-2 horse, the BAD thing is that he's got a really cool name, and was popular on the triple crown trail last year.

The GOOD thing about Micromanage is his relentless stamina, the BAD thing is that the public will over-bet this Pletcher trainee off his 8 length marathon score.

The GOOD thing about Moreno is his classy speed, the BAD thing is that his odds were 5x better last race!

The GOOD thing about Prayer for Relief is his bad looking recent form, the BAD thing is his lack of a winning punch.

The GOOD thing about Zivo is the lack of Grade-1 titans in this field, the BAD thing is he won with a good trip at 3x the odds last race.

The GOOD thing about Nurumbega is the life he showed running past Micromanage late in the Brooklyn, the BAD thing is he needed the whole 1.5 miles to run him down.

The GOOD thing about Last Gunfighter is that Chad Brown is his trainer, the BAD thing is he drew the 9 post again.

The GOOD thing about Stephanoatsee is getting Rosario on the longest shot on the board, the BAD thing is he deserves to be the longest shot on the board!

[Tor Ekman]

Well done, RF. I'll be watching but not wagering.

[ArlJim78]

Strange to see so many equipment changes in a top GR1 - blinkers on.
I'm thinking this goes to a come from behinder, Zivo or perhaps Norumbega

[Maximillion]

I could see the :2: Its My Lucky Day possibly having designs on the lead--blinkers on and rail post-maybe they try to take it right to Moreno.

One I kinda like here at a price is the :5: Prayer for Relief.

Maybe he can work out a trip somewhere just behind the speed,and get first run on the deeper closers.Like ArlJim, I see this one being won from off the pace,and at likely double digit odds he is my play here.

[Some_One]

Don't think there will be much value in the race, Moreno and Lucky are the rightful favs and no one seems to be fast enough to beat them both.

[whodoyoulike]

I see :2: itsmyluckyday, :4: moreno and :5: prayer for relief as the contenders.

The :4: and :5: I'm hoping will duel for the lead after the half leaving the :2: to close nicely. I'll take 5/2 on the :2: in 1:49 +/-.

Also, depends on how the :2: looks warming up.

[taxicab]

I like Zivo.
He passes the eye test for me.
He kind of sits there, then he shifts gears and comes home pretty easily.
I think he's really talented.
I don't like the blinkers going on Itsmyluckyday at all.
This guy is all heart,fires a big shot every race and now they want to make an equipment change off of a giant second place finish.......If it ain't broke,don't fix it.

[PhantomOnTour]

We may have a Travers scenario where LuckyDay engages Moreno earlier than we think and they get after one another.
The former gets 2lbs from Moreno this time - he was conceding 2lbs in the Whitney.

I think someone will be coming and get by these two.

Zivo and Prayer For Relief are likely the ones, with the latter getting in relatively light at 118lbs.

[thespaah]

I picked :7: Zivo in my analysis (http://thorofan.com/handicappers/) hoping that Moreno gets more pressure this time. It's always fun to read a discussion though!

Who do you like, and state the reasoning behind your pick?

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
2 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
7 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
8 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
9 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
10 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L

A-Coupled: Long River and Romansh
This is a fine field and a great sendoff to Saratoga 2014.
Should be a good betting race.

[thespaah]

I picked :7: Zivo in my analysis (http://thorofan.com/handicappers/) hoping that Moreno gets more pressure this time. It's always fun to read a discussion though!

Who do you like, and state the reasoning behind your pick?

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
2 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
7 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
8 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
9 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
10 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L

A-Coupled: Long River and Romansh
I would prefer to not see the same deal as we saw in the Travers where the main speed, Bayern, needed to be challenged. Unfortunately that challenger was one of the other top contenders. Of course the pressure on the front end was too much for Bayern and he spat out the bit.
Now, I see Moreno as a threat to get a clear lead then settle. If he is permitted to set the tempo, he wins.
If Moreno is pressured for the first 5 or 6F, he may also finish like he's towing a Wurlitzer.

[thespaah]

We may have a Travers scenario where LuckyDay engages Moreno earlier than we think and they get after one another.
The former gets 2lbs from Moreno this time - he was conceding 2lbs in the Whitney.

I think someone will be coming and get by these two.

Zivo and Prayer For Relief are likely the ones, with the latter getting in relatively light at 118lbs.
If I get to bet this race, I'm looking for the "from the mid pack closers"...
Speed duel, then the mid packer picks up the pieces.

[thespaah]

The GOOD thing about Long River is that he's coupled with Romansh, the BAD thing is that he's too slow.

The GOOD thing about Romansh is that his recent form is hidden with two bad trips, the BAD thing is that he has yet to prove he's a Grade-1 contender.

The GOOD thing about Itsmyluckyday is that he is a solid Grade-2 horse, the BAD thing is that he's got a really cool name, and was popular on the triple crown trail last year.

The GOOD thing about Micromanage is his relentless stamina, the BAD thing is that the public will over-bet this Pletcher trainee off his 8 length marathon score.

The GOOD thing about Moreno is his classy speed, the BAD thing is that his odds were 5x better last race!

The GOOD thing about Prayer for Relief is his bad looking recent form, the BAD thing is his lack of a winning punch.

The GOOD thing about Zivo is the lack of Grade-1 titans in this field, the BAD thing is he won with a good trip at 3x the odds last race.

The GOOD thing about Nurumbega is the life he showed running past Micromanage late in the Brooklyn, the BAD thing is he needed the whole 1.5 miles to run him down.

The GOOD thing about Last Gunfighter is that Chad Brown is his trainer, the BAD thing is he drew the 9 post again.

The GOOD thing about Stephanoatsee is getting Rosario on the longest shot on the board, the BAD thing is he deserves to be the longest shot on the board!
Post position in a 9f race never really comes into consideration. Unless of course the speed is on the inside with the secondary speeds to the outside. In this scenario it is difficult for the main speed to get to the lead.
If the horse is a dead closer post 9 doesn't hurt.
I guess the only time an outside or worse yet, the rail or post 2, is when the stalker gets buried down there.

[JustRalph]

:2: :4: are obvious and maybe it runs to form, but that never stopped me from betting something else...............


These jockey changes in this race are very interesting to me.

:3: :5: :7:

This :3: is coming off a huge race. Does that hold up?

Shug coming back in here intrigues me. Velazquez getting on the :5: makes me think he is ready for a big race. But who knows why these jocks are switching around.

[PhantomOnTour]

I just don't see how the others let Moreno get away easily unless he goes suicidal on them, which may happen.

[thespaah]

I just don't see how the others let Moreno get away easily unless he goes suicidal on them, which may happen.
Such as Alvarado letting go of Moreno's head and the horse lays down the first 6 panels in 1:10?....Meanwhile Guillot at that moment bolts for his office back at the barn looking for a Bottle of Maalox and his old 30.06 deer rifle so he can take aim and knock Alvarado off the horse from 200 yards?
Nah....If Moreno gets his own way, I'm not predicting Commentator in the Whitney, but getting loose on the lead sure would make things easier.
We'll see.
This is one of those races where I wish I could be a fly on the wall when the various trainers give instructions to their jockeys

[NY BRED]

[
The GOOD thing about Last Gunfighter is that Chad Brown is his trainer, the BAD thing is he drew the 9 post again.


The good/great story about LG is that Bravo is 2 for 2 with the
"other" Chad Brown and owns some back #'s that will be overlooked,
making him a huge overlay at the old graveyard for fav's.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbDown:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:7: Norumbega coming off a short layoff, 3 for 6 at the distance and ITM 5 of 6. Picks up Castellano, and Shug has been patient with this guy. Working well. Hopefully can get at 12 to 15/1.

[jahura2]

:7: Norumbega coming off a short layoff, 3 for 6 at the distance and ITM 5 of 6. Picks up Castellano, and Shug has been patient with this guy. Working well. Hopefully can get at 12 to 15/1.
Definitely playing Norumbega. 2 for 2 at saratoga.blink on.Castillano. if he can run to his Brooklyn form he has a good shot. Hopefully blinkers will get him in to the race earlier.

[Robert Fischer]

Betting the Woodward Stakes or "You can't squeeze blood from a turnip" :p

value play = Trifectas: 234/234/1 and 124/124/3

Commentary: Moreno is the favorite, and is likely to get a nice tactical advantage, with the short run to the first turn. That takes a lot of wagering value out of the race. Zivo comes in off of the 14-1 dream-trip upset in the Suburban. If Zivo is bet down to his ml (5-1) or below, he adds value to the other contenders. With Micromanage and Romansh looking like overlays on the morning line, I constructed a pair of efficient trifecta value plays to leverage value in both the key horses, and the ticket structure.
In all honesty, I'll be rooting for Moreno to win by a couple lengths here, in order to take a shot against next time. Good luck.

contenders:
Moreno (#4) - "Default" type of favorite. Inside speed, drifting out late.

Romansh (#1 entry) - Bad trip in Whitney(accounting for ground-loss was actually the fastest horse in the field from 2.5furlongs-7furlongs), coupled with Long River (long shot w/ some talent, inside post draw, connections desperate for G1 to go with pedigree)

Itsmyluckyday (#2) - Solid G2/G3 type.

Micromanage (#3) - Bad trip in Suburban.

[raybo]

Everyone seems to think that Moreno has the best early speed in this race, he doesn't, IMLD does but chooses to not use it. The only thing that puts Moreno on the lead is his running style (E8) and his being the only true E horse in the race. So, does anyone actually think that the rest of the entries are going to let him run pedestrian fractions on an easy lead, as the "lone speed" horse? I think not!

If no other entry pressures Moreno early, I think IMLD does that for them, but I don't expect a pace meltdown, just a little faster than Moreno would run if he was not pressured.

It looks like IMLD to win, but Zivo and Norumbega could surprise if the pace is highly contested.

[raybo]

Betting the Woodward Stakes or "You can't squeeze blood from a turnip" :p

value play = Trifectas: 234/234/1 and 124/124/3

Commentary: Moreno is the favorite, and is likely to get a nice tactical advantage, with the short run to the first turn. That takes a lot of wagering value out of the race. Zivo comes in off of the 14-1 dream-trip upset in the Suburban. If Zivo is bet down to his ml (5-1) or below, he adds value to the other contenders. With Micromanage and Romansh looking like overlays on the morning line, I constructed a pair of efficient trifecta value plays to leverage value in both the key horses, and the ticket structure.
In all honesty, I'll be rooting for Moreno to win by a couple lengths here, in order to take a shot against next time. Good luck.

contenders:
Moreno (#4) - "Default" type of favorite. Inside speed, drifting out late.

Romansh (#1 entry) - Bad trip in Whitney(accounting for ground-loss was actually the fastest horse in the field from 2.5furlongs-7furlongs), coupled with Long River (long shot w/ some talent, inside post draw, connections desperate for G1 to go with pedigree)

Itsmyluckyday (#2) - Solid G2/G3 type.

Micromanage (#3) - Bad trip in Suburban.

I think Micromanage scratches to run Sept 1st at Parx.

[PhantomOnTour]

We may have a Travers scenario where LuckyDay engages Moreno earlier than we think and they get after one another.
The former gets 2lbs from Moreno this time - he was conceding 2lbs in the Whitney.

I think someone will be coming and get by these two.

Zivo and Prayer For Relief are likely the ones, with the latter getting in relatively light at 118lbs.
My mistake - they carried even weights last time and PFR gets 4lbs from Moreno today, who may struggle carrying over 120lbs

[Robert Fischer]

I think Micromanage scratches to run Sept 1st at Parx.

Good call, he's scratched.

[Robert Fischer]

I just don't see any value here as far as what goes with my opinion of the runners.

:1a: Romansh is the closest thing to a value. Honestly I'm not a huge fan of this guy.

With everyone moving a bump inside, do we try to find a way to use :5: Prayer for Relief under tris and supers?

Feels like I'm reaching here.

So, does anyone actually think that the rest of the entries are going to let him run pedestrian fractions on an easy lead, as the "lone speed" horse? I think not!


You could be right Raybo.
It certainly makes sense.
Moreno also does a funny thing at the start where he likes to break a step slow and then accelerate to the lead. That leaves him more vulnerable than a horse that just breaks in front.

[zico20]

Nobody can even remotely push Moreno other than IMLD. I think he sits just off Moreno in pedestrian fractions and hopes he can close the length or so turning for home. If Lopez is smart, he will realize that slow fractions turns this into a two horse race. If he decides to press very early in the race, then anything can happen, especially Moreno falling apart. IMLD looks like a lock to be in the tri though.

I hate Romansh, can never figure him out. With that said, he looks to be going off form, which means I will throw him out and he will then run big.

Zivo got a dream trip with the fractions last time going a mile and a quarter. Remains to be seen if he is that good at a shorter distance with slower fractions against Grade 1 horses. Today will determine weather Zivo is a graded stakes runner or just another solid NY bred overnight stakes horse.

[raybo]

I just don't see any value here as far as what goes with my opinion of the runners.

:1a: Romansh is the closest thing to a value. Honestly I'm not a huge fan of this guy.

With everyone moving a bump inside, do we try to find a way to use :5: Prayer for Relief under tris and supers?

Feels like I'm reaching here.



You could be right Raybo.
It certainly makes sense.
Moreno also does a funny thing at the start where he likes to break a step slow and then accelerate to the lead. That leaves him more vulnerable than a horse that just breaks in front.

The thing that hits me, is the early speed potential of IMLD, he's about 1.5 feet per second faster to the 1st call than any other horse in the race, which equates to about 7 lengths in 4f. He's also the fastest velocity horse from the 1st call to the 2nd call, by about 1 fps, so theoretically, he could be about 11 lengths in front at the 2nd call, if he runs as fast as his best early performance (last 10 races of course). However, he has only been on the lead at the 1st call in one race and that didn't turn out well, 4th by 7. He has been on the lead at the 2nd call twice, and won both of those races.

So, if it were my call, he would lay off the leader(s) in the 1st fraction and then start pressing seriously during the 2nd fraction, running some of the steam out of the leader(s), but not suicidally so, just enough to make them take notice and stress a bit more.

Despite what some are saying, this race, IMO, offers dramatic profit potential, if you get the scenario right and your ticket figured right. Yes, it could be one of the 2 favorites, but that is by no means a guarantee, I think less so of a guarantee for Moreno (because he is one dimentional), and IMLD could certainly stink it up with the wrong decisions being made early (although he is much more versatile).

[Ocala Mike]

I'll jinx the :6: , ZIVO.

[reckless]

I am keying Moreno 1st and 2nd in my exactas with a couple of legit closers. My main exactas are in the top slot with the 2-slot Moreno bets being of the 'saver' variety.

Even with the expected boot and scoot effort by Paco Lopez on Itsmyluckyday, he still doesn't finish up as strongly as Moreno. I don't think IMLD could duel early and have anything left at the wire.

As I see it, those that have the best chances of picking up the pieces, include (not in any order of preference):

Prayer for Relief, who'll be a big price plus gets Johnny V., who was aboard this horse's best race of the year. Dale Roman's barn been sneaky hot too of late.

Zivo might actually be an underlay today but I must include him since he's a very strong closer in a field with suspect early types and even more suspect closer types.

Norumbega has too many question marks not to be a decent price but I know the Shug crowd and the Castellano fans will there in force, and they should. He won't be more than his 10-1 morning line, for sure. The blinkers on should help and that focus might keep him closer than usual yet still be able to finish up down the lane. He might be the upset horse of the day.

I hope IMLD, Romansh, Long River are all over-bet as those legit contenders I am betting against.

Good luck to all today and everyday.

[raybo]

Good call, he's scratched.

That was almost a no-brainer. This horse had a very low percentage chance of even getting in the money in the Woodward, much less winning it. Surely you wouldn't use the Woodward as a prep race for a BC race that, if you get in, you can't get in the money. Just makes more sense to try to make some money in a race where you have a better shot, BC aspirations for this horse are only dreams.

[iceknight]

That was almost a no-brainer. This horse had a very low percentage chance of even getting in the money in the Woodward, much less winning it. Surely you wouldn't use the Woodward as a prep race for a BC race that, if you get in, you can't get in the money. Just makes more sense to try to make some money in a race where you have a better shot, BC aspirations for this horse are only dreams. Wouldn't they run him in the BC Marathon?

Anyhow, coming to the Woodward I am hoping :4: Moreno can be described as: "He is a fast horse, but he is a good horse". He definitely has legitimate G1 credentials, has a Whitney and has run close 2nds at longer distances, so here's hoping he can show more grit at 9f.

:6: Zivo, this horse's PP line is interesting. Has only one G2, but it is still hard to maintain a 7-8 race streak while being S type so I give props to this horse.

The only way the race make up will change is if :1a: Romansch is kept very close to the lead and puts pressure.

So :1:, :4: , :6: Exacta box is the only thing I can play in this race or a :4: with :6:, :1:

[whodoyoulike]

The thing that hits me, is the early speed potential of IMLD, he's about 1.5 feet per second faster to the 1st call than any other horse in the race, which equates to about 7 lengths in 4f. He's also the fastest velocity horse from the 1st call to the 2nd call, by about 1 fps, so theoretically, he could be about 11 lengths in front at the 2nd call, if he runs as fast as his best early performance (last 10 races of course). However, he has only been on the lead at the 1st call in one race and that didn't turn out well, 4th by 7. He has been on the lead at the 2nd call twice, and won both of those races.

So, if it were my call, he would lay off the leader(s) in the 1st fraction and then start pressing seriously during the 2nd fraction, running some of the steam out of the leader(s), but not suicidally so, just enough to make them take notice and stress a bit more....

I agree. But, if IMLD gets involved too early I think it will cause him problems at the end.

WTH am I the only one with less than 400 vCash in this thread?

[Tom]

I don't think this is much of a race.
Lots of drive-by race horses. None impressive.
Moreno needs everything his own way, the rest can';t even get it done when they get it.

Except IMLD.
IMLD just broke his 3yo top, so I think he has the best chance of moving ahead.

I'll say screw pace in here - this is the horse who figures to be the best shape today.

[Some_One]

Zivo early fav? got my Betfair account up now ready to lay him if he goes off at 2s

[Robert Fischer]

WOW

look at the opening odds

Zivo= 2-1
IMLD = 2-1
Moreno = 4-1

[Speed Figure]

Looks like the price on the :6: is gone! from 5/1 to 5/2!!

[Stillriledup]

WOW

look at the opening odds

Zivo= 2-1
IMLD = 2-1
Moreno = 4-1

Inside money thinks Moreno has no shot.

Ought to be interesting to see what "they" Know. :D

[Robert Fischer]

Inside money thinks Moreno has no shot.

Ought to be interesting to see what "they" Know. :D

Most dangerous part of the race for Moreno is the break. He needs a clean break in order to get to the lead after breaking a little slow.

I think Itsmyluckyday will flatten out.

If Moreno can't get it done, it could become a default type of race, and that points to Zivo or the pricier 1Entry.

I'll bet $1 on Moreno and $1 on the 1Entry.

[Stillriledup]

Moreno picks up 5 lbs and has only 1 work since his last win.

Caveat?

[Stillriledup]

No supers on the race?

Why?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Took the :7: to W is all I could do in here.

[Robert Fischer]

Itsmyluckyday out-gamed him. Great stretch-run.

[098poi]

Wow I'm out of breath just watching that race.

[Some_One]

Why is Alvarado objecting? I think he caused more of the bumping then Paco. (At least from the headon it appears)

[Robert Fischer]

Why is Alvarado objecting? I think he caused more of the bumping then Paco. (At least from the headon it appears)

Yea, Moreno wanted to drift out so bad there.

[iceknight]

Moreno picks up 5 lbs and has only 1 work since his last win.

Caveat? I don't understand how opening quarter in 24sec is considered "sprinting to the lead" by Durkin. Moreno goes to the lead like a legitimate racehorse and tries to win it on the lead like a true horse should than waiting for a pace collapse. and wasnt he only a nose behind in the travers last yr?

This reminded me a little of the 2004 Woodward, of course, it wasnt as gruelling like that one..

[Stillriledup]

Why is Alvarado objecting? I think he caused more of the bumping then Paco. (At least from the headon it appears)

Of course he caused more bumping....i'm surprised that the judges looked at this so long, they should have looked at it for 5 seconds and made the race official. This wasn't ever coming down, they just wasted everyone's time.

[zico20]

Nobody can even remotely push Moreno other than IMLD. I think he sits just off Moreno in pedestrian fractions and hopes he can close the length or so turning for home. If Lopez is smart, he will realize that slow fractions turns this into a two horse race. If he decides to press very early in the race, then anything can happen, especially Moreno falling apart. IMLD looks like a lock to be in the tri though.

I hate Romansh, can never figure him out. With that said, he looks to be going off form, which means I will throw him out and he will then run big.

Zivo got a dream trip with the fractions last time going a mile and a quarter. Remains to be seen if he is that good at a shorter distance with slower fractions against Grade 1 horses. Today will determine weather Zivo is a graded stakes runner or just another solid NY bred overnight stakes horse.

I think I will quote myself :D Finally, a race goes exactly, and I mean exactly like it was supposed to. Every horse was positioned just where I thought they would be. Well done Lopez for not killing off Moreno!!

[iceknight]

I think I will quote myself :D Finally, a race goes exactly, and I mean exactly like it was supposed to. Every horse was positioned just where I thought they would be. Well done Lopez for not killing off Moreno!! Good call! and Congrats to IMLD on the Gr 1. So.. do we have a rivalry on hands now? These two have been quite clear of Romansch, Prayer for relief etc now

[raybo]

Everyone seems to think that Moreno has the best early speed in this race, he doesn't, IMLD does but chooses to not use it. The only thing that puts Moreno on the lead is his running style (E8) and his being the only true E horse in the race. So, does anyone actually think that the rest of the entries are going to let him run pedestrian fractions on an easy lead, as the "lone speed" horse? I think not!

If no other entry pressures Moreno early, I think IMLD does that for them, but I don't expect a pace meltdown, just a little faster than Moreno would run if he was not pressured.

It looks like IMLD to win, but Zivo and Norumbega could surprise if the pace is highly contested.

LOL - I think I'll quote myself too. Just like I envisioned the race going.

[raybo]

Why is Alvarado objecting? I think he caused more of the bumping then Paco. (At least from the headon it appears)

I agree, it looked like Alvarado caused the bumping. If you look at them before they came together, Alvarado switched to the left hand, while there was still space between the two horses, almost like he wanted Moreno to move towards the outside to impede IMLD. If you are afraid that a horse might be coming to you on your right, wouldn't you keep whipping with the right hand to stay clear? :confused:

[Some_One]

I agree, it looked like Alvarado caused the bumping. If you look at them before they came together, Alvarado switched to the left hand, while there was still space between the two horses, almost like he wanted Moreno to move towards the outside to impede IMLD. If you are afraid that a horse might be coming to you on your right, wouldn't you keep whipping with the right hand to stay clear? :confused:

I can only think of two things, he's not comfortable using the whip in a tight space and/or he though Lucky would act like a rail and keep his horse straight while under a left handed whip

[classhandicapper]

Great ride by Paco in the Woodward (and also the Prioress to recognize how the track was playing so soon and to get aggressive ).

That's the way you ride if you are worried about a lone speed. You make him earn it a little, but without sacrificing your horse (as in the Travers). If you don't beat him you don't beat him, but you want to make sure no one inferior picks you up late because you were so busy trying to kill off the main speed you took a lot out of your own horse too. Paco can ride. No doubt about it!

[raybo]

Great ride by Paco in the Woodward (and also the Prioress to recognize how the track was playing so soon and to get aggressive ).

That's the way you ride if you are worried about a lone speed. You make him earn it a little, but without sacrificing your horse (as in the Travers). If you don't beat him you don't beat him, but you want to make sure no one inferior picks you up late because you were so busy trying to kill off the main speed you took a lot out of your own horse too. Paco can ride. No doubt about it!

Totally agree, not much of a better job he could have done, given the circumstances!