What Do You Think?

[barn32]

[PS This was not my idea]

Using pace ratings from Brisnet, in the table below are cases where a horse looked to have an advantage in the first half of a race going off at odds of 5-1 or more. I used the second call pace rating for each runner’s last three races. If an animal’s last race pace figure was better than each of the competition’s last three efforts, this was termed a pace advantage. The horses considered were those with a front running style. (Brisnet categories E or E/P)

Pace Advantage, Early Running Style, Odds 5-1 or more, NYRA Tracks, Dirt Races, Jan 2005-June 2014


Total 1086
Wins 122
W/PCT 11.23%
AV/ODDS 11.55
$2 Win/Net $2.27

[thaskalos]

Did the sample include all distances, or just sprints?

[lansdale]

[PS This was not my idea]

Using pace ratings from Brisnet, in the table below are cases where a horse looked to have an advantage in the first half of a race going off at odds of 5-1 or more. I used the second call pace rating for each runner’s last three races. If an animal’s last race pace figure was better than each of the competition’s last three efforts, this was termed a pace advantage. The horses considered were those with a front running style. (Brisnet categories E or E/P)

Pace Advantage, Early Running Style, Odds 5-1 or more, NYRA Tracks, Dirt Races, Jan 2005-June 2014


Total 1086
Wins 122
W/PCT 11.23%
AV/ODDS 11.55
$2 Win/Net $2.27


Certainly looks questionable. From what you describe, it looks as though this play is only available in about 3% or so of available races. I also wonder how the 2005-2009 period would compare with 2010-2014.

[iwearpurple]

[PS This was not my idea]

Using pace ratings from Brisnet, in the table below are cases where a horse looked to have an advantage in the first half of a race going off at odds of 5-1 or more. I used the second call pace rating for each runner’s last three races. If an animal’s last race pace figure was better than each of the competition’s last three efforts, this was termed a pace advantage. The horses considered were those with a front running style. (Brisnet categories E or E/P)

Pace Advantage, Early Running Style, Odds 5-1 or more, NYRA Tracks, Dirt Races, Jan 2005-June 2014


Total 1086
Wins 122
W/PCT 11.23%
AV/ODDS 11.55
$2 Win/Net $2.27

If my math works out right over this 9 1/2 yer period, this works out to about 2 plays a week. Not a lot of action.

[dansan]

Rather use my angles

[barn32]

Did the sample include all distances, or just sprints?Not specified. I'm assumng all distances.

Also, this is only NYRA tracks. There would undoubtedly be many more plays using all tracks.

[acorn54]

i've seen this movie before
over at the jcapper forum jeff put a really neat "udm" that held up for three years and many thousands of races. he put it on the private section of the forum, lest the working principal behind the "udm" be revealed to the public at large.
sure enough, after jeff let us "jcappers" onto the neat "udm" the win pct remained THE SAME, yet the average payout and roi took a plunge.

[whodoyoulike]

i've seen this movie before
over at the jcapper forum jeff put a really neat "udm" that held up for three years and many thousands of races. he put it on the private section of the forum, lest the working principal behind the "udm" be revealed to the public at large.
sure enough, after jeff let us "jcappers" onto the neat "udm" the win pct remained THE SAME, yet the average payout and roi took a plunge.


There's a jcapper forum?

[acorn54]

There's a jcapper forum?


click on "message board" just above "mission statement", at this link, but you MUST USE EXPLORER.

http://www.jcapper.com/

[JustRalph]

I use chrome , but it acts kind of flaky.....but it works well enough