Expecting the unexpected

[EMD4ME]

In today's second at the SPA, we had 3 well bet contenders. The 267. Most people thought the 6&7 would go out and the 2 would come from off the pace. Lo and behold, the 2&6 go head and head all out and duel each other into defeat. The 7 kind of sits but really is drawn into the battle 3 wide. In the last furlong, the slowest furlong by far of the race, the 4 wins with an ultra perfect dressed up trip.

On Travers day we had a similar situation. Tonalist was worried about
Bayern and Wicked Strong was too worried about the aforementioned 2. We all know how that ended.

My question is this:

How often do we expect the unexpected in our wagers? I will not pretend to say I forecasted either one of those examples. However, in retrospect, it does teach me that if there are only a couple or 3 contenders in a race, they might just kill each other and set up a dressed up closer.

We all expect the duel when we see 6 need the leads in an 8 horse field. That's obvious. What other situations do you look at and expect the unexpected?

BTW, For these that had the Travers winner, congratulations:) For those that had the 4 in race 2 today, congratulations:)

[HUSKER55]

God I wish I had an answer for that. Lately my picks do alright till about halfway down the stretch and then the famous phrase, "where in the hell did that horse come from".

I have started looking at my 3rd and 4th contenders asking that same question. If there is a pace break down which one will be there.

In close races I have learned the lesson of betting back-up.

[EMD4ME]

God I wish I had an answer for that. Lately my picks do alright till about halfway down the stretch and then the famous phrase, "where in the hell did that horse come from".

I have started looking at my 3rd and 4th contenders asking that same question. If there is a pace break down which one will be there.

In close races I have learned the lesson of betting back-up.

It's frustrating to expect a solid pace and bet the dressed up closer who only wins if things go perfect, only to watch all the jockeys of the speed horses choke away like they are professional wrestlers. Sometimes it's a catch 22 for me.

For example, this years Derby had me crying. To watch all those jockeys slow down the pace, made me miserable as that's the one race I expected to see pace and a collapse of some sort.

These days, when I see 2 need the lead speeds, I hesitate to assume they will kill each other. Been burned many times watching them crawl around the circle 1-2 or 1-3.

I hear ya.

I guess it burns me most when I see a stretch out, absolute need the lead, can't rebrake speedball get choked out going long, which causes the pace to be abnormally slow and I cry as I bet a stalker or closer, only to watch another speed wire the field.

There's so many permutations and examples but I also wanted to give the opposite side of the perspective here as well

[Stillriledup]

You have to factor in jockey stupidity, which happens quite often at plenty of tracks around the country. Amanda Auwater in the last race at Parx was riding a lock chalk horse who was 1 for 49 lifetime with 14 seconds...she was cruising under a hand ride on the far turn and she inexplicably started whipping, driving and jumping up and down and guess what happened to a finicky 1 for 49 cheap mare? Yep, she panicked and stopped advancing. Jocks get in their own way quite often, so you have to do the best you can and pray your jock doesn't let you down.

I had R Maragh cost me money in the 6th by strangling the 3 horse in the final 70 yards, how can you "predict" that type of stuff?

Its a fickle game indeeeeeed.

[biggestal99]

If something happens totally unexpected i chalk it up the chaos theory and move on,

Ve day? No way i could have him.

Allan

[EMD4ME]

You have to factor in jockey stupidity, which happens quite often at plenty of tracks around the country. Amanda Auwater in the last race at Parx was riding a lock chalk horse who was 1 for 49 lifetime with 14 seconds...she was cruising under a hand ride on the far turn and she inexplicably started whipping, driving and jumping up and down and guess what happened to a finicky 1 for 49 cheap mare? Yep, she panicked and stopped advancing. Jocks get in their own way quite often, so you have to do the best you can and pray your jock doesn't let you down.

I had R Maragh cost me money in the 6th by strangling the 3 horse in the final 70 yards, how can you "predict" that type of stuff?

Its a fickle game indeeeeeed.

That happens all the time in every race (jockey STUPIDITY). I SWEAR they are just like taxi drivers. Who are the worst (the slowest, left lane blocking, cut off for no reason, slow as hell moron drivers in the world) drivers in the world??? Taxi drivers!!! Who are the worst at riding a horse? Jockeys.

How ironic, they're in charge of 1 task and most absolutely suck at it.

Except for Ramon but he's gone.

[EMD4ME]

Just watched the replay of Maragh in the 6th, that was disgusting. Any kind of hand ride and that horse holds third by a neck or 1/2 length easy. He just wrapped up way too early.

[thaskalos]

I might be a pessimist...but I expect the unexpected in virtually every single race that I play. It's the price you pay if you've been in the game as long as I have...

[EMD4ME]

I might be a pessimist...but I expect the unexpected in virtually every single race that I play. It's the price you pay if you've been in the game as long as I have...

It's not the price you pay, it's your ingenious that benefits you by expecting the unexpected.

My mentor at NYRA, which I will not name for privacy reasons, only bets to win. Only bets when he fears no other horse, only bets when the unexpected can happen and his horse will still win. The only profitable horseplayer that I have ever met. Sometimes he goes 2 weeks without a wager.

Point is, it's a talent you feel as you do, not a curse.

[thaskalos]

It's not the price you pay, it's your ingenious that benefits you by expecting the unexpected.

My mentor at NYRA, which I will not name for privacy reasons, only bets to win. Only bets when he fears no other horse, only bets when the unexpected can happen and his horse will still win. The only profitable horseplayer that I have ever met. Sometimes he goes 2 weeks without a wager.

Point is, it's a talent you feel as you do, not a curse.

I am the opposite. My biggest bets are in races that the "average horseplayer" wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole. And no one has more losing tickets on his desk than I do. My friends at the track kid me that the management will throw me out for excessive littering...but I get even by reminding them that THEY are the ones with the "straight" jobs... :)

[Exotic1]

That happens all the time in every race (jockey STUPIDITY). I SWEAR they are just like taxi drivers. Who are the worst (the slowest, left lane blocking, cut off for no reason, slow as hell moron drivers in the world) drivers in the world??? Taxi drivers!!! Who are the worst at riding a horse? Jockeys.

How ironic, they're in charge of 1 task and most absolutely suck at it.

Except for Ramon but he's gone.

Who are the worst (the slowest, left lane blocking, cut off for no reason, slow as hell, take the long way - "it's faster" ) drivers in the world?

[Exotic1]

In today's second at the SPA, we had 3 well bet contenders. The 267. Most people thought the 6&7 would go out and the 2 would come from off the pace. Lo and behold, the 2&6 go head and head all out and duel each other into defeat. The 7 kind of sits but really is drawn into the battle 3 wide. In the last furlong, the slowest furlong by far of the race, the 4 wins with an ultra perfect dressed up trip.

On Travers day we had a similar situation. Tonalist was worried about
Bayern and Wicked Strong was too worried about the aforementioned 2. We all know how that ended.

My question is this:

How often do we expect the unexpected in our wagers? I will not pretend to say I forecasted either one of those examples. However, in retrospect, it does teach me that if there are only a couple or 3 contenders in a race, they might just kill each other and set up a dressed up closer.

We all expect the duel when we see 6 need the leads in an 8 horse field. That's obvious. What other situations do you look at and expect the unexpected?

BTW, For these that had the Travers winner, congratulations:) For those that had the 4 in race 2 today, congratulations:)

Good points. The #2 acted up in the gate off the layoff and may have been too keen. The alternative is that someone fkd up, jock or instructions.

[therussmeister]

I might be a pessimist...but I expect the unexpected in virtually every single race that I play. It's the price you pay if you've been in the game as long as I have...
I take a different route; most races I've stopped having any expectations whatsoever regarding how the race will unfold. My handicapping consists solely in predicting which horses will improve, and which horses will decline. I make no predictions as to how any horse will get from point A (the gate) to point B (the finish line). I am a pace handicapper that never tries to predict the pace. The only exception is I am always on the look-out for a horse that can steal the race on the front end.

Not only am I pleased with my financial results, but I am also much calmer while watching the race.

[Stillriledup]

Just watched the replay of Maragh in the 6th, that was disgusting. Any kind of hand ride and that horse holds third by a neck or 1/2 length easy. He just wrapped up way too early.

It was disgusting, that cost me. Its one thing to stop riding, its another thing to strangle and pull the horse up to a stop.

[EMD4ME]

I am the opposite. My biggest bets are in races that the "average horseplayer" wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole. And no one has more losing tickets on his desk than I do. My friends at the track kid me that the management will throw me out for excessive littering...but I get even by reminding them that THEY are the ones with the "straight" jobs... :)


Excessive littering :lol: I love it!

That's a good way to get even though ;)

[Stillriledup]

Excessive littering :lol: I love it!

That's a good way to get even though ;)

Toss a ticket towards the ground and a stooper will have it in his hand before it hits the floor. :D

[EMD4ME]

Who are the worst (the slowest, left lane blocking, cut off for no reason, slow as hell, take the long way - "it's faster" ) drivers in the world?

Besides Taxi Drivers? I don't know, who?

[Stillriledup]

Besides Taxi Drivers? I don't know, who?

Mike Smith. :D

[EMD4ME]

I fell for that! But couldn't resist.

[Tom]

A wise man once told me never trust a jockey.
He was a jockey.

[EMD4ME]

So... do you trust what he said? Lmao :lol: Good one Tom!

[BMustang]

I'm a guy who is rarely scared off by Beyer Speed figure discrepancies.

However, the :4: horse in that race, who had raced more often than his couterparts and never registered higher than a 78, while his main foes were all at 87 to 90, did it to me in this heat. I simply felt that he was "too slow" to win the race, even though I felt this race had the potential to set up for him.

Needless to say that I was furious with myself when he won. You not only need to expect the unexpected in this game, but have the chonies to take a shot despite the odds or popular opinion.

[Stillriledup]

A wise man once told me never trust a jockey.
He was a jockey.

You do realize you used "Wise" and "Jockey" in the same sentence.

:eek:

[Ocala Mike]

Who are the worst (the slowest, left lane blocking, cut off for no reason, slow as hell, take the long way - "it's faster" ) drivers in the world?



Not all jockeys. True story - Way back in the late 70's, when I first hired on with NY State auditng NYRA, I had to work at Aqueduct on Thanksgiving Day. I was running late W/B on the Belt Parkway, and driving like a madman (little traffic since it was maybe 8:30 am). Lo and behold, I got passed by a gal doing 80 driving a nice late model car with the tag RCS-5. Come to find out it was Robyn Smith in a bigger hurry than me trying to get to the Big A for her day's mounts. Of course, she would retire around 1980 or so, having hooked up with Fred Astaire. The other jocks called her "the bitch."

[cutchemist42]

I'm a guy who is rarely scared off by Beyer Speed figure discrepancies.

However, the :4: horse in that race, who had raced more often than his couterparts and never registered higher than a 78, while his main foes were all at 87 to 90, did it to me in this heat. I simply felt that he was "too slow" to win the race, even though I felt this race had the potential to set up for him.

Needless to say that I was furious with myself when he won. You not only need to expect the unexpected in this game, but have the chonies to take a shot despite the odds or popular opinion.

Sometimes a horse won't awaken for that higher speed figure unless it sets up for them. That being said, for me the :4: would have been too off as well.

[Exotic1]

Not all jockeys. True story - Way back in the late 70's, when I first hired on with NY State auditng NYRA, I had to work at Aqueduct on Thanksgiving Day. I was running late W/B on the Belt Parkway, and driving like a madman (little traffic since it was maybe 8:30 am). Lo and behold, I got passed by a gal doing 80 driving a nice late model car with the tag RCS-5. Come to find out it was Robyn Smith in a bigger hurry than me trying to get to the Big A for her day's mounts. Of course, she would retire around 1980 or so, having hooked up with Fred Astaire. The other jocks called her "the bitch."


Good story.

[Exotic1]

Besides Taxi Drivers? I don't know, who?

What i meant were most NYC taxi drivers in general and a few jockeys.

[Robert Fischer]

It's one thing to estimate probabilities on paper, and another entirely for flesh and blood animals and jockeys, and race dynamics to cooperate. (https://www.facebook.com/jason.corazon/posts/1464812180415751?comment_id=277972&offset=0&total_comments=1)

These are the type of real-life problems where we have to decide whether the risk management that we gain from the redundancy of betting two win horses is worth the tradeoff in value. (https://www.facebook.com/jason.corazon/posts/1464812180415751?comment_id=277972&offset=0&total_comments=1)