New York Drivers

[traynor]

For those who believe betting top drivers can be profitable, these are the current figures for Yonkers and Saratoga:

YR - In 399 Pace Races WIN% for TOP RANK was 16.79 % Mean Mutuel 5.89
YR - In 399 Pace Races PLACE% for TOP RANK was 15.79 %
YR - In 399 Pace Races WIN% for SECOND RANK was 12.28 % Mean Mutuel 5.04
YR - In 399 Pace Races WIN ROI for TOP RANK was 0.55
YR - In 399 Pace Races WIN ROI for SECOND RANK was 0.35
YR - In 399 Pace Races TOP THREE Drivers WON 41.85 % ROI 0.47
YR - In 399 Pace Races AB Exacta ROI was 46.67 % 2.51 %
YR - In 399 Pace Races AC Exacta ROI was 66.92 % 3.26 %
YR - In 399 Pace Races BA Exacta ROI was 15.88 % 1.50 %
YR - In 399 Pace Races BC Exacta ROI was 14.36 % 1.00 %

Stga - In 353 Pace Races WIN% for TOP RANK was 15.86 % Mean Mutuel 5.72
Stga - In 353 Pace Races PLACE% for TOP RANK was 12.46 %
Stga - In 353 Pace Races WIN% for SECOND RANK was 16.43 % Mean Mutuel 6.72
Stga - In 353 Pace Races WIN ROI for TOP RANK was 0.51
Stga - In 353 Pace Races WIN ROI for SECOND RANK was 0.57
Stga - In 353 Pace Races TOP THREE Drivers WON 47.03 % ROI 0.53
Stga - In 353 Pace Races AB Exacta ROI was 63.06 % 2.55 %
Stga - In 353 Pace Races AC Exacta ROI was 53.07 % 3.12 %
Stga - In 353 Pace Races BA Exacta ROI was 34.45 % 1.98 %
Stga - In 353 Pace Races BC Exacta ROI was 54.77 % 3.40 %

Stga - In 241 Trot Races WIN% for TOP RANK was 18.67 % Mean Mutuel 6.60
Stga - In 241 Trot Races PLACE% for TOP RANK was 12.03 %
Stga - In 241 Trot Races WIN% for SECOND RANK was 15.77 % Mean Mutuel 5.38
Stga - In 241 Trot Races WIN ROI for TOP RANK was 0.63
Stga - In 241 Trot Races WIN ROI for SECOND RANK was 0.51
Stga - In 241 Trot Races TOP THREE Drivers WON 48.96 % ROI 0.54
Stga - In 241 Trot Races AB Exacta ROI was 79.40 % 3.73 %
Stga - In 241 Trot Races AC Exacta ROI was 57.88 % 2.49 %
Stga - In 241 Trot Races BA Exacta ROI was 22.82 % 2.49 %
Stga - In 241 Trot Races BC Exacta ROI was 41.48 % 2.90 %

The upside is that the mutuel pools are filled with money on the horses driven by the top driver(s). Given the dismal success rate of such horses (despite being overbet), it creates ample opportunities for profit when the top driver is factored out of the selection process.

[imofe]

This can be a little misleading depending on how you use it. For example, a win bet on Casey Leonard (Balmoral's leading driver) every time he is on the horse for the 1st time in the official program and you would be up over 20 units for 2014. This would be higher if you threw out some of the overbet chalks. Every track and driver change must be looked at differently.

[LottaKash]

If I was a "volume" player I would pay serious attention to Traynor's stats, but since I am a "guerilla spot player", those stats don't mean anything to me in a practical way...

In fact, I literally demand at least a competent driver on each and every one of my "spots", almost without exception... When my "play" has had a tough go of it, I like it that the top-drivers are skillful enough to get every last ounce out of my pick(s)..You know, to win by that "snot" at the wire.. Or by getting up int time for that "lucky" place spot as well..

Having a top driver on every play is not a strict requirement for me, but it doesn't hurt any either...

[mrroyboy]

In New York it's Sears Brennan and Bartlett. I am not saying bet them blindly but if they are driving one of my horses I like it even more.
Yes the horse will probably be bet way down but I am counting on my handicapping not the driver. Tonight I like several horses driven by Brian Sears. Not because he is driving. I just like the horses.

[traynor]

Some great observations--that I agree with completely. The point is basic--it takes more than simplistic, one-dimensional approaches to do well wagering. The simple stuff--top driver, top speed, top early pace, top class, top whatever--is so routinely overbet by the crowd that its value is diminished into the red.

Understanding when the simple stuff will be overbet (and why) creates other opportunities. It is those "other opportunities" that are useful to discover. One example is the prevalence of losing wagers on top drivers in the exacta pools, and the (relatively) inflated mutuels on other combinations that exclude that (those) driver(s).

[mrroyboy]

Very true Tray. Keep up with your research. It is very valuable.