Biggest morning line blunder of all time

[zico20]

Happens today in the 2nd at Fairmount Park. The :2: is listed at 8-5 and the :3: is listed at 9-5 in a 6 horse field. The :1: is on the program at 8-1 and WILL go off at 3-5, possibly 1-5. The horse is an absolute standout beyers wise being 30 points better than the two listed favorites. From a speed variant POV the 1 is about 9 lengths faster than the other two. Horses 4 and 5 are horrible and the 6 has not run in over a year.

John Scully, who is the track announcer and local handicapper for the newspaper has the 1 winning at 6-5 and the 3 listed at 20-1 and picked 5th.

How can the morning line guy, who is very accurate at FP, blow this one so bad. Anyone who handicaps FP please chime in and tell me what you think. If the 1 goes off at 2-1 or higher, I would not put a nickel on him, something is clearly amiss.

[mountainman]

Happens today in the 2nd at Fairmount Park. The :2: is listed at 8-5 and the :3: is listed at 9-5 in a 6 horse field. The :1: is on the program at 8-1 and WILL go off at 3-5, possibly 1-5. The horse is an absolute standout beyers wise being 30 points better than the two listed favorites. From a speed variant POV the 1 is about 9 lengths faster than the other two. Horses 4 and 5 are horrible and the 6 has not run in over a year.

John Scully, who is the track announcer and local handicapper for the newspaper has the 1 winning at 6-5 and the 3 listed at 20-1 and picked 5th.

How can the morning line guy, who is very accurate at FP, blow this one so bad. Anyone who handicaps FP please chime in and tell me what you think. If the 1 goes off at 2-1 or higher, I would not put a nickel on him, something is clearly amiss.

Going too fast...or w/o the almighty beyers....it can happen..and it's embarrassing...

[HUSKER55]

I believe it was the book called "Beyer on Speed" where he said that his numbers can float 20 points or more from one race to the next. That is why hanging your hat on those numbers can be dicey.

[LottaKash]

Out of curiosity, what was the class and type (surface and dis) of the race ?..

[Robert Goren]

It is a morning line and it is Fairmount Park to boot. There is no reason to get excited. A couple of hundred dollar bills bet by somebody could decide how right or wrong the morning line is. At small tracks, often horses who look awful on paper end up as short priced favorites. Maybe the track ML maker knows something that is not on paper.

[davew]

I like the 2 and 3 both better than the 1- if the 1 is going to be 3/5 than my win wagers will be on 2 and 3.

[mountainman]

I believe it was the book called "Beyer on Speed" where he said that his numbers can float 20 points or more from one race to the next. That is why hanging your hat on those numbers can be dicey.

of course..but beyers GET BET...track linesmakers must factor them in...

[EMD4ME]

Happens today in the 2nd at Fairmount Park. The :2: is listed at 8-5 and the :3: is listed at 9-5 in a 6 horse field. The :1: is on the program at 8-1 and WILL go off at 3-5, possibly 1-5. The horse is an absolute standout beyers wise being 30 points better than the two listed favorites. From a speed variant POV the 1 is about 9 lengths faster than the other two. Horses 4 and 5 are horrible and the 6 has not run in over a year.

John Scully, who is the track announcer and local handicapper for the newspaper has the 1 winning at 6-5 and the 3 listed at 20-1 and picked 5th.

How can the morning line guy, who is very accurate at FP, blow this one so bad. Anyone who handicaps FP please chime in and tell me what you think. If the 1 goes off at 2-1 or higher, I would not put a nickel on him, something is clearly amiss.

I don't follow Fairmount but took a quick look. Sheezzzzzz. The one should be 6/5, 7/5 and I could see the 2 being 5/2. I have zero idea how the 3 is 9/5 ML.

I would crack a joke about how maybe the ML maker wants to place a bet on the 1 and is trying to build up the price BUT I might get blasted on here for a joke of that nature ;)

In all seriousness, if I bet this race, assuming the track is not anti speed, I would bet a cold 2-1. 2 is the lone speed and can run to a high 50's Beyer if loose.

Bad ML job.

[zico20]

I don't follow Fairmount but took a quick look. Sheezzzzzz. The one should be 6/5, 7/5 and I could see the 2 being 5/2. I have zero idea how the 3 is 9/5 ML.

I would crack a joke about how maybe the ML maker wants to place a bet on the 1 and is trying to build up the price BUT I might get blasted on here for a joke of that nature ;)

In all seriousness, if I bet this race, assuming the track is not anti speed, I would bet a cold 2-1. 2 is the lone speed and can run to a high 50's Beyer if loose.

Bad ML job.

Fairmount Park has played honest all year except for a couple of days that were speed favoring. For such a small track they do an incredible job of keeping it fair. How these big tracks go one day from speed favoring on the rail to closers on the outside is beyond me. Fairmount has no biases. Maybe that is one reason why it is so easy to handicap, among other things.

As far as the 3 goes, he has Hernandez on him. They would bet Hernandez on a donkey. The 3 sucks but he will go off around 5-1 because of Hernandez. Without Hernandez, the 3 goes off 20-1. Still. i don't see the horse being close to the 1 and 2.

[Maximillion]

Fairmount Park has played honest all year except for a couple of days that were speed favoring. For such a small track they do an incredible job of keeping it fair. How these big tracks go one day from speed favoring on the rail to closers on the outside is beyond me. Fairmount has no biases. Maybe that is one reason why it is so easy to handicap, among other things.

As far as the 3 goes, he has Hernandez on him. They would bet Hernandez on a donkey. The 3 sucks but he will go off around 5-1 because of Hernandez. Without Hernandez, the 3 goes off 20-1. Still. i don't see the horse being close to the 1 and 2.

I agree,for a minor track its about as formful as it gets imo.
The poly-horses from AP that appear from time to time can be hard to figure,but other than that it does seem to play quite fair.

[EMD4ME]

Fairmount Park has played honest all year except for a couple of days that were speed favoring. For such a small track they do an incredible job of keeping it fair. How these big tracks go one day from speed favoring on the rail to closers on the outside is beyond me. Fairmount has no biases. Maybe that is one reason why it is so easy to handicap, among other things.

As far as the 3 goes, he has Hernandez on him. They would bet Hernandez on a donkey. The 3 sucks but he will go off around 5-1 because of Hernandez. Without Hernandez, the 3 goes off 20-1. Still. i don't see the horse being close to the 1 and 2.

Then maybe I should start playing some Fairmount ! :)

[banacek]

From a speed variant POV the 1 is about 9 lengths faster than the other two.

Apparently 9 3/4 :)

[zico20]

Apparently 9 3/4 :)

This was probably the safest win bet on a horse over even money all year at any track in the country. This is the first time since I started posting that I made a comment on a Fairmount race. the reason being is the pools are too small. If I gave out winners and exactas and tris and just a couple of people on here pounded a tri it could go from 25.00 to 15.00 or lower. That is way too much of a drop.

As far as this race goes, I made a big win bet and had the exacta numerous times. I did miss the tri because the 2 didn't run. As far as the 6 goes, all I said was he hadn't been out for over a year. I will confess to having inside info about the 6. That is why I hit the exacta. I will leave it at that.

The only other race tonight at Fairmount that was easy was the first. :1: and :6: first and second with the :2: third. :4: and :5: were horrible. Can't believe I got a 28.80 tri. on those three. I actually didn't like any other race tonight, which is unusual for me. Normally, I bet about 6 of the 8 races. Not all of them big, a few I put only 10-20 bucks on.

Once again Fairmount made me a nice profit for the day.