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FlintAtTheFetlock
08-22-2014, 04:44 PM
How much importance and consideration do you give when you spot this in a race? Are their additional factors that tilt the scales either way? I hadn't included this in my handicapping as yet with so many other factors to get my mind around. But the other day I saw a lightly raced 3yo, excellent form (in the money 3 of 5 with a win, two seconds) going against older horses. The 3yo had the best form, was one of the favorites, and his speed figures were strong. He did not win. Was this telling or just racing luck?

Thanks

Stillriledup
08-22-2014, 04:50 PM
The 3yo will be, probably, getting 5 lbs, which matters.

Also, later in the year, the 3yo is almost a 4yo, so there could be an advantage as the younger horse is still getting the weight break.

For me, i need to see that the 3yo has been showing that he can "fight a battle" and he has fighting power and is a really polished racehorse. Also, it depends on how mentally tough the 4 year olds are. A 3 yo without mental toughness and a horse who shows that he needs things to go his way to race well might not be as good of a pick vs older, esp if the older horses are warrior types who show big fighting power.