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pele polo
08-22-2014, 01:10 PM
2 opinions I want to share:

- Saratoga's main track has played pretty fair so I dont see a son of Oflee Wild (Bayern) getting the distance. I think he hits an absolute brick wall inside the 1/8th pole and may not hit the board. Will not use in the top 3 spots.

- Mr Speaker is very intriguing and I'm willing to use him extensively with Tonalist and Wicked Strong. These three together are the clear standouts for me.


Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.

jk3521
08-22-2014, 06:07 PM
2 opinions I want to share:



Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.


It's in the blood!

NTamm1215
08-22-2014, 07:32 PM
2 opinions I want to share:

- Saratoga's main track has played pretty fair so I dont see a son of Oflee Wild (Bayern) getting the distance. I think he hits an absolute brick wall inside the 1/8th pole and may not hit the board. Will not use in the top 3 spots.

- Mr Speaker is very intriguing and I'm willing to use him extensively with Tonalist and Wicked Strong. These three together are the clear standouts for me.


Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.

Jimmy Jerkens is having a phenomenal year, but he has won a BC Mile, a Fla Derby, a Travers, a BC Dirt Mile, a Met Mile and the Wood Memorial in recent memory. Hard to call this his "coming out party."

letswastemoney
08-22-2014, 07:49 PM
I don't get why no one thinks Offlee Wild can sire 10 F winners. Did he not win the 10 F 2005 Suburban?

Thebigguy
08-22-2014, 07:58 PM
I don't get why no one thinks Offlee Wild can sire 10 F winners. Did he not win the 10 F 2005 Suburban?

Agree. I think Bayern is clearly the most likely winner and if the track plays like it did today he will break this race open turning for home and win huge. Wicked Strong has a big chance. He is my main backup and a horse Im covering in all multis. Thats it. I was going to cover Mr. Speaker... Not anymore. I think he is very talented and could be Shugs next Point Of Entry, but I dont think he is ready for this race over this surface. I could see him running a solid 3rd though.

Racey
08-22-2014, 08:03 PM
concerning Tonalist not sure why he clearly has been pointed here. Last race was a tune up.

pele polo
08-22-2014, 08:13 PM
Jimmy Jerkens is having a phenomenal year, but he has won a BC Mile, a Fla Derby, a Travers, a BC Dirt Mile, a Met Mile and the Wood Memorial in recent memory. Hard to call this his "coming out party."

Solid point but i believe well be seeing him at this level more consistently moving forward.

pele polo
08-22-2014, 08:41 PM
I don't get why no one thinks Offlee Wild can sire 10 F winners. Did he not win the 10 F 2005 Suburban?

I wouldn't be surprised if he won. It is Baffert. In fact if he wins impressively and does well in the fall he'll be knocking on the door of star status and everyone likes to cheer on a star. I won't hate on the horse.

However, I'll be expressing my opinion in how I construct my wagers. He's going to be heavily bet while in among other proven G1 horses. A vulnerable favorite.

I think he's shown he's a miler. The way in which he handled those horses in the Woody Stephens was spectacular. But not often do we see horse with that type of performance come back and win G1 at the classic distance two races later. If he does it, he's special but hell have to prove it before I bet him.

zico20
08-22-2014, 08:47 PM
2 opinions I want to share:

- Saratoga's main track has played pretty fair so I dont see a son of Oflee Wild (Bayern) getting the distance. I think he hits an absolute brick wall inside the 1/8th pole and may not hit the board. Will not use in the top 3 spots.

- Mr Speaker is very intriguing and I'm willing to use him extensively with Tonalist and Wicked Strong. These three together are the clear standouts for me.


Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.

Just out of curiosity, would Bayern have hit a wall in the Haskell and finished off the board had they gone another quarter mile. To me, it didn't look like he would have stopped on a dime.

ArlJim78
08-22-2014, 09:07 PM
More likely to hit the wall, whoever tries to run with Bayern or push him. for example what happened to Social Inclusion, WildCat Red, Untapable.
I'm not seeing who in this race is going to keep Bayern honest while not compromising their chances of winning. There are no hopeless speed horses to do the dirty work. The blinkered Wicked Strong seems like the one most likely to stalk, but Bayern is not going to be as easy to reel in as Legend.
Bayern/Mr. Speaker/Tonalist, Kid Cruz, Charge Now, Wicked Strong

Matt Bryan
08-22-2014, 09:09 PM
Just out of curiosity, would Bayern have hit a wall in the Haskell and finished off the board had they gone another quarter mile. To me, it didn't look like he would have stopped on a dime.

But, of course, that was a different race and different track. Further, Bayern is the only horse in the field not to have run at Saratoga. He's not even training there. The Haskell was impressive, and I'm still kicking myself for not backing him in the Woody...but, still not sure how I feel about him here.

pele polo
08-22-2014, 09:13 PM
Bayern ran them off their feet but caught an easy lead in the Haskell. But who exactly did he beat?

- Albano- 2nd, may not even be considered a top 20 three year old at years end.
- Wildcat Red- 3rd, has proven he's a second tier three year old.
- Social Inclusion- horrendous start, rushed up.
- Untapable- wide, never looked comfortable, never fired.

None of which would have been competitive in Travers.

Matt Bryan
08-22-2014, 09:52 PM
Bayern ran them off their feet but caught an easy lead in the Haskell. But who exactly did he beat?

- Albano- 2nd, may not even be considered a top 20 three year old at years end.
- Wildcat Red- 3rd, has proven he's a second tier three year old.
- Social Inclusion- horrendous start, rushed up.
- Untapable- wide, never looked comfortable, never fired.

None of which would have been competitive in Travers.

Wildcat Red stumbled at the start as well.

zico20
08-22-2014, 09:55 PM
Bayern ran them off their feet but caught an easy lead in the Haskell. But who exactly did he beat?

- Albano- 2nd, may not even be considered a top 20 three year old at years end.
- Wildcat Red- 3rd, has proven he's a second tier three year old.
- Social Inclusion- horrendous start, rushed up.
- Untapable- wide, never looked comfortable, never fired.

None of which would have been competitive in Travers.

He will catch an easy lead again. If your super fast, it does not matter who else is in the race. If Bayern doesn't tire in the final quarter, he wins by daylight. If Bayern runs another 107 Beyer, its all over no matter who else is in the race. The rest simply can't run fast enough.

zico20
08-22-2014, 09:59 PM
But, of course, that was a different race and different track. Further, Bayern is the only horse in the field not to have run at Saratoga. He's not even training there. The Haskell was impressive, and I'm still kicking myself for not backing him in the Woody...but, still not sure how I feel about him here.

Great horses can run at any track. That is of no concern, whatsoever. Baffert is still the best around, IMO. I know many people don't like him, but I do. Baffert won't send him all the way across the country if he didn't think he would get the distance.

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 01:54 AM
I am looking for another step forward for V.E Day, the other Jerkens runner, and hoping he gets a piece.

appistappis
08-23-2014, 02:09 AM
I am looking for another step forward for V.E Day, the other Jerkens runner, and hoping he gets a piece.




me too, I'm keying him and wicked strong on top

JohnGalt1
08-23-2014, 06:45 AM
Bris 1 1/4 distance breeding---

:1: 110

:2: 108 Bayern

:3: 116

:4: 110

:5: 109

:6: 116 Tonalist

:7: 114 Wicked Strong

:8: 113

:9: 108

:10: 115

zico20
08-23-2014, 09:29 AM
me too, I'm keying him and wicked strong on top

V.E. Day hit a wall at the eight pole in the Curlin. Had that race been a mile and a quarter, I project the final time would have been around 2:05 and change. The Travers looks to finish around 2:02 flat, my projection. V.E. Day will need to improve about 15-17 lengths to win this. Could he improve that much? While there is no indication that he will, this is horse racing and I have seen just about everything in 40 years. Almost nothing is impossible in this game, but my money says no he can't make that big of an improvement.

Also, he is picking up 7 pounds and the jockey opts elsewhere. Two not so good signs. Finally, so many people on this board talk value. True value on this horse would be around 50-1. And you won't get that on him. So he is an underlay and offers no value at 20-1, IMO.

zico20
08-23-2014, 09:34 AM
2 opinions I want to share:

- Saratoga's main track has played pretty fair so I dont see a son of Oflee Wild (Bayern) getting the distance. I think he hits an absolute brick wall inside the 1/8th pole and may not hit the board. Will not use in the top 3 spots.

- Mr Speaker is very intriguing and I'm willing to use him extensively with Tonalist and Wicked Strong. These three together are the clear standouts for me.


Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.

How many Oflee Wild horses sell for 320,000? His stud fee is 4000, so this is a fluke horse where breeding can be thrown out the window.

jefftune
08-23-2014, 09:42 AM
I think TONALIST gets a more aggressive ride from Rosario today.

http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune/travers.html

zico20
08-23-2014, 10:03 AM
I think TONALIST gets a more aggressive ride from Rosario today.

http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune/travers.html

I agree with you. I believe the big three will be running 1-2-3 down the backstretch. Which means an inferior horse will have to pass one of them instead of a cheap horse stealing a placing because an idiot jockey gets the better horse too far behind. Another reason why they should run 1-2-3.

Ocala Mike
08-23-2014, 11:38 AM
Using the :10: , MR. SPEAKER.

thespaah
08-23-2014, 12:26 PM
2 opinions I want to share:

- Saratoga's main track has played pretty fair so I dont see a son of Oflee Wild (Bayern) getting the distance. I think he hits an absolute brick wall inside the 1/8th pole and may not hit the board. Will not use in the top 3 spots.

- Mr Speaker is very intriguing and I'm willing to use him extensively with Tonalist and Wicked Strong. These three together are the clear standouts for me.


Also want to add that the meet has been JimmyJerkins' coming out party. He's been tearing it up and having two in the Travers is a great accomplishment. A very good trainer that Im happy to see find this type of success.
I share your concerns about Bayern getting 10f.
Here's my take.
With Bayern being the only real speed of the field, I see him taking command by the time they hit the first turn. All that's needed is to get a clear lead, give him a break down the backstretch, bottoming out the rest and then being urged home in a dawdling 25 second last quarter to win in like 2:03 and change. The others will be running on a treadmill trying to gain ground on the huffing and puffing Bayern.
JMHO....

thespaah
08-23-2014, 12:29 PM
I don't get why no one thinks Offlee Wild can sire 10 F winners. Did he not win the 10 F 2005 Suburban?
Here's a quote I pulled from Horseracingnation.com
"None of Offlee Wild’s offspring have won or placed at 1 ¼ miles in a stakes race. "
Full link....
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Handicapping_the_Travers_Stakes_123#

thespaah
08-23-2014, 12:31 PM
Just out of curiosity, would Bayern have hit a wall in the Haskell and finished off the board had they gone another quarter mile. To me, it didn't look like he would have stopped on a dime.
Well, it would have only been another furlong.
Bayern finished up strong in the Haskell. I wish I'd seen the gallop out.
That would help me to decide if he can get the extra panel.
Edit.
Just watched the replay. Unfortunately the camera did not follow the winner after the wire. However, to me it appeared that Bayern finished up driving, no stick.
That finish would not scare me off him today.
Again, Bayern looked strong.

Tor Ekman
08-23-2014, 12:31 PM
Tonalist . . . last time out was basically a prep, he'll prove best today again

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 12:45 PM
If the Wood Mem were another furlong do you think Bellamy Road would have folded?
He folded badly in the Derby...

My point is that the "extra furlong added to the Haskell" argument is hollow.

We aren't going from 1m to 1m1/8...the last furlong in a 10f race often spells ruin for runners not ready to go that far.

JustRalph
08-23-2014, 12:53 PM
Tonalist......short price

Bayern....same

Wicked Strong..........again

Mr Speaker would have to be the only play value wise :10:

Robert Fischer
08-23-2014, 01:18 PM
V.E. Day hit a wall at the eight pole in the Curlin. Had that race been a mile and a quarter, I project the final time would have been around 2:05 and change. The Travers looks to finish around 2:02 flat, my projection. V.E. Day will need to improve about 15-17 lengths to win this. Could he improve that much? While there is no indication that he will, this is horse racing and I have seen just about everything in 40 years. Almost nothing is impossible in this game, but my money says no he can't make that big of an improvement.

Also, he is picking up 7 pounds and the jockey opts elsewhere. Two not so good signs. Finally, so many people on this board talk value. True value on this horse would be around 50-1. And you won't get that on him. So he is an underlay and offers no value at 20-1, IMO.

I agree with you on V. E. Day.
While he is a really nice animal, I don't like his action in the lane last time. He also had a dream trip and needed a blanket finish.

Robert Fischer
08-23-2014, 01:20 PM
$1.25 Million Travers Stakes - Today, 5:45 PM ET on NBC, America's best 3yo's do battle in America's most historic stakes race.

Headlining the field of ten entries, are three Grade-1 titans; Belmont Stakes winner "#6 Tonalist", Haskell winner "#2 Bayern", and Jim Dandy winner "#7 Wicked Strong".

From a wagering standpoint, the race boils down to a couple questions:
1. Who is the best of the "big 3"?
2. Who of the other 7 provide value?

Bayern has key advantages over the other favorites. He figures to set the pace, leading the entire field without much serious pace-pressure from others.

Bayern will be able to stride along in his comfort zone, and he will be able to save ground around the turns, running less total distance than his rivals.

Of the long-shots, three horses offer value; "#3 Charge Now", "#8 Kid Cruz", and "#1 Commanding Curve". Charge Now was best of the closers in the Curlin Stakes. He's fundamentally sound, has enough early pace to get position, and can be in position to capitalize should one of the favorites falter. Kid Cruz and Commanding Curve are both capable of plodding along and passing tired rivals to run 3rd or 4th in the right scenario.

Selections: 2-6-7-3-8-1

Wagers:
Win and Place on #2 Bayern

Multi-race single #2 Bayern

Trifectas 2/67/381, 67/2/381

Coverage starts 5:00 PM ET on NBC, with a 5:45 PM ET post time. Good luck to all.

Clocker
08-23-2014, 01:26 PM
Free PPs of the Travers HERE (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SAR&race=12&param1=6240&param2=1495&param3=2005944) if you aren't playing the rest of the card.

zico20
08-23-2014, 03:10 PM
If the Wood Mem were another furlong do you think Bellamy Road would have folded?
He folded badly in the Derby...

My point is that the "extra furlong added to the Haskell" argument is hollow.

We aren't going from 1m to 1m1/8...the last furlong in a 10f race often spells ruin for runners not ready to go that far.

I am sorry, I don't understand your post. Bellamy Road never got the lead in the Derby that went in 45.1 for the half. He didn't fold, he never ran period. Many horses can easily go from a mile and eight to a mile and a quarter if allowed to settle on an easy, comfortable lead. Look at Moreno. He folded a couple of times at the shorter distance in his career only to win last time out at the mile and a quarter. Pace makes race.

letswastemoney
08-23-2014, 03:20 PM
It's more important that Bayern's lead is uncontested than the fractions themselves.

Bayern can go slowly in 24 and 48, but if another horse is on his flank, I'd say he will quit. If there is some separation between Bayern and the second horse, Bayern will probably win.

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 03:27 PM
I am sorry, I don't understand your post. Bellamy Road never got the lead in the Derby that went in 45.1 for the half. He didn't fold, he never ran period. Many horses can easily go from a mile and eight to a mile and a quarter if allowed to settle on an easy, comfortable lead. Look at Moreno. He folded a couple of times at the shorter distance in his career only to win last time out at the mile and a quarter. Pace makes race.
Moreno won at 1m1/8 in the Whitney, not 1m1/4

Spiderman
08-23-2014, 03:33 PM
Well, it would have only been another furlong.
Bayern finished up strong in the Haskell. I wish I'd seen the gallop out.
That would help me to decide if he can get the extra panel.
Edit.
Just watched the replay. Unfortunately the camera did not follow the winner after the wire. However, to me it appeared that Bayern finished up driving, no stick.
That finish would not scare me off him today.
Again, Bayern looked strong.

I watched the Haskell replay. The gallop out was not shown on my viewing, too. However, Garcia had the presence of mind to continue pushing Bayern through the stretch and at wire. I assume he kept going in preparation for greater distance attempt.

zico20
08-23-2014, 03:34 PM
Moreno won at 1m1/8 in the Whitney, not 1m1/4

You are correct, my bad. But I still don't understand the comparison to Bellamy Road.

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 03:43 PM
Believe me, Bayern will be all over my ticket...his merits and pace advantage are obvious.

I just don't buy the Haskell argument.
Maybe Bellamy Road was a bad example, but he immediately came to mind when thinking of an easy lead runaway winner at 9f trying 10f.

pele polo
08-23-2014, 03:56 PM
The really talented ones show versatility as Tonalist and Wicked Strong have. Was surprised to see Wicked Strong on the pace last out after we all though he was a one run, deep closer. Tonalist won the Peter Pan setting solid fractions. And Mr Speaker has speed although I'm sure he'd like to sit back but he's hora wide post and he doesn't want a lot of dirt in his face.

Either these or someone else will not let Bayern get away. If exchange wagers were available I'd take a crack at Commanding Curve over Bayern.

porchy44
08-23-2014, 04:26 PM
Is he a player at all today ?

Did run pretty good at Derby distance 1 1/4

zico20
08-23-2014, 04:31 PM
Is he a player at all today ?

Did run pretty good at Derby distance 1 1/4

He ran good at CD. Everywhere else he sucks. Check his PPs. five races outside of CD: 0 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third, 1 fourth, 3 off the board. The third was a non threatening performance.

cutchemist42
08-23-2014, 05:25 PM
Liking Tonalist here.

Stillriledup
08-23-2014, 05:29 PM
Believe me, Bayern will be all over my ticket...his merits and pace advantage are obvious.

I just don't buy the Haskell argument.
Maybe Bellamy Road was a bad example, but he immediately came to mind when thinking of an easy lead runaway winner at 9f trying 10f.

The only reason i'm betting this race is so i can toss Bayern.

If i thought he had ANY actual shot to win, i would be passing.

Tom
08-23-2014, 05:43 PM
Last thing I need is another 3yo race.
I'll take a shot on the :4: VE Day across the board.

Rookies
08-23-2014, 05:46 PM
:6: tonalist

HuggingTheRail
08-23-2014, 05:51 PM
Last thing I need is another 3yo race.
I'll take a shot on the :4: VE Day across the board.

Nice shot...

jettroofer
08-23-2014, 05:51 PM
Last thing I need is another 3yo race.
I'll take a shot on the :4: VE Day across the board.

U DA MAN

RaceBookJoe
08-23-2014, 05:52 PM
Bang !!!

Stillriledup
08-23-2014, 05:52 PM
Last thing I need is another 3yo race.
I'll take a shot on the :4: VE Day across the board.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M :jump:

Rookies
08-23-2014, 05:54 PM
Last thing I need is another 3yo race.
I'll take a shot on the :4: VE Day across the board.

Nicely done, Tom! :ThmbUp:

Did you take it in the contest. Would have hugely boosted your ROI! :eek:

Tom
08-23-2014, 05:56 PM
D'oh!
Forgot all about it!

I did start the day in your neck of the woods - $39 winner at Woodbine, now this. One of my best days this year.

Definitely heading out to a steak dinner now.

JustRalph
08-23-2014, 06:05 PM
nice call everybody on the :4:

it would have been great if the Jerkins horses were in a dead heat though......

Clocker
08-23-2014, 06:13 PM
One of the guys on NBC said that Maggie Bryant, the owner of V.E.Day, is part of the Centennial Farms syndicate that owns Wicked Strong.

And the rich get richer.

thespaah
08-23-2014, 06:18 PM
Last thing I need is another 3yo race.
I'll take a shot on the :4: VE Day across the board.
NICE CALL!!!!!!!!!

reckless
08-23-2014, 07:33 PM
One of the guys on NBC said that Maggie Bryant, the owner of V.E.Day, is part of the Centennial Farms syndicate that owns Wicked Strong.

And the rich get richer.

Sorry I did not see your post until now as I posted in another thread about how the Jerkens' entry would have been coupled in another era.

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 09:26 PM
I am looking for another step forward for V.E Day, the other Jerkens runner, and hoping he gets a piece.
"I love it when a plan comes together"
-George Peppard

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 09:30 PM
V.E. Day hit a wall at the eight pole in the Curlin. Had that race been a mile and a quarter, I project the final time would have been around 2:05 and change. The Travers looks to finish around 2:02 flat, my projection. V.E. Day will need to improve about 15-17 lengths to win this. Could he improve that much? While there is no indication that he will, this is horse racing and I have seen just about everything in 40 years. Almost nothing is impossible in this game, but my money says no he can't make that big of an improvement.

Also, he is picking up 7 pounds and the jockey opts elsewhere. Two not so good signs. Finally, so many people on this board talk value. True value on this horse would be around 50-1. And you won't get that on him. So he is an underlay and offers no value at 20-1, IMO.
Is that so?
Cashing at 19-1 is good enough value for me

Thebigguy
08-23-2014, 09:30 PM
"I love it when a plan comes together"
-George Peppard


Not trying to be a dick, but you said nothing about betting the horse to win. You actually specifically said hoping he gets a piece. I think most people would assume you meant you would use him underneath because he was improving and would be a big price. Pretty shitty redboard bro.

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 09:34 PM
Not trying to be a dick, but you said nothing about betting the horse to win. You actually specifically said hoping he gets a piece. I think most people would assume you meant you would use him underneath because he was improving and would be a big price. Pretty shitty redboard bro.
Bec mon chu, you sore loser :lol:

Always coming on here and talking shit about other folks picks...got a win bet and exacta.
Next time I will spell it all out for you, so hopefully you don't come back all butt hurt and crying.

Stillriledup
08-23-2014, 09:37 PM
Not trying to be a dick, but you said nothing about betting the horse to win. You actually specifically said hoping he gets a piece. I think most people would assume you meant you would use him underneath because he was improving and would be a big price. Pretty shitty redboard bro.

Why are you not happy when others do well?

Thebigguy
08-23-2014, 09:38 PM
Bec mon chu, you sore loser :lol:

Always coming on here and talking shit about other folks picks...got a win bet and exacta.
Next time I will spell it all out for you, so hopefully you don't come back all butt hurt and crying.



Well there is some truth in what your saying I am sore. I needed Wicked Strong for huge money....
But Im only calling out what I read. Unless you posted your actual bets somewhere else, but I highly doubt that. And lets stick to facts. I dont always come on here talking shit. Thats a gross exaggeration.

Thebigguy
08-23-2014, 09:39 PM
Why are you not happy when others do well?

Was there anything wrong with what I said? Is this going to turn into another Im an asshole thread? What did I say that was wrong or untrue? Is everyone super sensitive here?

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 09:44 PM
Well there is some truth in what your saying I am sore. I needed Wicked Strong for huge money....
But Im only calling out what I read. Unless you posted your actual bets somewhere else, but I highly doubt that. And lets stick to facts. I dont always come on here talking shit. Thats a gross exaggeration.
You had a post in the last few days that was deleted because you said someone had "a lame ass opinion"...I would provide more of your crap as evidence, but I don't make a habit of digging up shit (that's for OFF - TOPIC :D )

I posted my opinion about the winner last night at about 2am...the final ticket wasn't designed yet and I had work an hour before the Travers. I don't post every bet I make...get over the fact that you didn't find the winner and some others did.
Or don't get over it...no difference to me.

zico20
08-23-2014, 09:59 PM
Is that so?
Cashing at 19-1 is good enough value for me

Congratulations on hitting the race. I clearly was wrong. Although my one "out there" backup was 6-7 with 6-7 with the 8 3rd and 4th in the super. Thought I had a great shot at it at the top of the stretch. Oh well, I only lost 180 on the race.

Thank God for Fairmount Park tonight.

Thebigguy
08-23-2014, 10:00 PM
You had a post in the last few days that was deleted because you said someone had "a lame ass opinion"...I would provide more of your crap as evidence, but I don't make a habit of digging up shit (that's for OFF - TOPIC :D )

I posted my opinion about the winner last night at about 2am...the final ticket wasn't designed yet and I had work an hour before the Travers. I don't post every bet I make...get over the fact that you didn't find the winner and some others did.
Or don't get over it...no difference to me.
Congrats on the score.

Stillriledup
08-23-2014, 10:15 PM
Was there anything wrong with what I said? Is this going to turn into another Im an asshole thread? What did I say that was wrong or untrue? Is everyone super sensitive here?

I just think that if people win, they're happy and if they're happy, they want to share. We should be happy for them, even if they didnt actually give us their picks before hand. I don't think this board is out of control with "redboarding" but people should post their true feelings, if they want to share a hit in a game where its hard to hit anything, than i think we should let them without coming down on them for it.

PhantomOnTour
08-23-2014, 10:18 PM
Congratulations on hitting the race. I clearly was wrong. Although my one "out there" backup was 6-7 with 6-7 with the 8 3rd and 4th in the super. Thought I had a great shot at it at the top of the stretch. Oh well, I only lost 180 on the race.

Thank God for Fairmount Park tonight.
Zico - you are a sharp handicapper, and I apologize for highlighting your post regarding VE Day and kind of calling you out.

it's been a very tough meet for me so far (even started a thread about it)and things got just about even today...I was a bit over exuberant in my post race glee.
Look forward to exchanging opinions with you in the future.

tanner12oz
08-23-2014, 10:19 PM
Kinda bizarre run race with tonalist

thespaah
08-23-2014, 10:33 PM
Not trying to be a dick, but you said nothing about betting the horse to win. You actually specifically said hoping he gets a piece. I think most people would assume you meant you would use him underneath because he was improving and would be a big price. Pretty shitty redboard bro.
Not seeing a redboard here.
Phantom specifically stated VE Day was "improving".....Plus he said the horse could get a piece.
Now, just because he did not SPECIFICALLY state he was making a win bet, does not translate to redboarding.
Or is it you have your own little set of rules?

appistappis
08-23-2014, 11:15 PM
me too, I'm keying him and wicked strong on top


as trotter said in let it ride, "I'm having a very good day"

TheEdge07
08-23-2014, 11:48 PM
VE Day maybe even better on turf...

pele polo
08-24-2014, 06:50 AM
Like to see Tonalist on turf

upthecreek
08-24-2014, 08:42 AM
I know must guys here dont like RPM or the Tips method but the software had the # 4 V E Day as the top show-a-profit horse and the bonus box longshot
(and no I didnt have it)

Exotic1
08-24-2014, 08:52 AM
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I am looking for another step forward for V.E Day, the other Jerkens runner, and hoping he gets a piece.


me too, I'm keying him and wicked strong on top

App: Fantastic call.

Bobzilla
08-24-2014, 08:53 AM
Congratulations to PhantomOnTour, appistappis, and Tom, for your skill in recognizing the possibility of an improved performance by V.E. Day in yesterday's Travers. Very nice call and I hope you folks cashed huge!

the little guy
08-24-2014, 09:51 AM
Like to see Tonalist on turf


You won't.

classhandicapper
08-24-2014, 10:05 AM
Nice score to those of you that cashed on VE Day. He ran a much improved race. Jerkens has been unbelievable.

I think the story of that race was the pace, the rides on Tonalist/Wicked Strong, and the way the track was playing.

I mentioned after the Haskell that Bayern was fortunate at Monmouth to catch a track where the inside path and perhaps speed seemed to have a advantage. So IMO his win there didn't do much to demonstrate he could get 10F on an honest track.

So why were Tonalist and to a lesser extent Wicked Strong ridden so aggressively against him?

Granted, I understand that there was no real secondary speed in the race to keep Bayern honest. But there is a huge difference between staying close to keep a horse honest and using your horse aggressively to put him away prematurely. The latter leaves you vulnerable to horses behind you.

If you understood that Bayern was probably suspect at 10F anyway, it makes even less sense to ride aggressively because he might come back on his own. Finally, the clincher is that if anything, Saratoga was not very kind to speed yesterday and the rail may not have been the best path. Several quality horses with loose leads in moderate paces did not run especially well and closers did well in a couple of others. Generously, you can say it wasn't a good day for speed. So Bayern was even more vulnerable.

There are a lot of discussions about the lack of aggression from riders these days, but IMO that's mostly only a valid point when we are talking about horses that have an opportunity to shake loose but the rider doesn't take it or horses that need the lead to win that are rated into submission to avoid a duel. Those are suspect ride. But it rarely makes sense to commit semi suicide on a horse that can be rated trying to ensure that the front runner is softened up (especially a vulnerable one).

Some people may come away from the Travers thinking Tonalist and Wicked Strong were disappointing, but I think they ran quite well given the pace and track.

Bayern stopped badly, but that was to be expected given 10F, on a track that was nowhere near as kind to his speed as Mth, given the added burden of the pace, and the fact that he spent time on a rail that may have been bad.

burnsy
08-24-2014, 10:18 AM
Great analogy Class. I think you summed it up nicely. I would just add that the first turn was not taken well by Tonalist and he carried Wicked Strong wide. That probably didn't help Wicked Strong's chances in the last 50 yards. The jocks were banking on having the two best horses and were not giving Bayern a thing. Turns out VE Day is no slouch...........didn't have it, congrats to those that did. Another fantastic, flying Travers finish.

classhandicapper
08-24-2014, 10:30 AM
The jocks were banking on having the two best horses and were not giving Bayern a thing. Turns out VE Day is no slouch...........didn't have it, congrats to those that did. Another fantastic, flying Travers finish.

Yep. They rode the race as if everyone else had no chance and all they had to do was put away Bayern and turn it into a match race.

ArlJim78
08-24-2014, 10:45 AM
I didn't take the horses from the Curlin seriously. The time was not fast, blanket finish, closers on the wrong lead, etc. But noticed yesterday that V.E. Day looked to be on the right lead down the lane and improved a ton. He was the only come-from-behinder to make a solid move, the others looked to be in quicksand.

On the other hand, Wicked Strong ran a very solid race, in once sense it's a shame he didn't get the win. But he did owe something to Tonalist for pressing Bayern and taking him out of the equation, yet still had plenty left for a respectable third.

Commanding Curve managed to beat only the retreating Bayern, so I'm assuming that will be enough for the connections to point him towards another GR1.

NY BRED
08-24-2014, 10:48 AM
Great call to all that had the winner, especially great day for the
Chief and Jim in light of their recent loss of Mrs. Jerkens.

The daunting issue is how Wicked Strong lost the race at the wire to his uncoupled entry mate and how clever JJ"S agent was to grab the mount.

Moreover, I really respect the riding abilities of Jose Lezcano and his
agent, precisely why I tossed VE despite JJ getting the mount.

Then again, the memory of Onion should have pushed me for a
"saver tri".

Definitely a Travers race to remember, including btw, a great
finish for TD"S Travers race calls.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Grits
08-24-2014, 11:28 AM
It was a great Travers Day. One with a great crowd and fine winners. Some with excellent value.... Good work to all who did well. For this father and son, one had to be tremendously pleased. The stretch run had the entire grandstand wildly screaming.

The move to put Javier aboard was quite a telling one for this closer! These Jerkens men are cagey smart.

Today's another Saratoga day with more opportunities. Good luck, gentlemen.

Great call to all that had the winner, especially great day for the
Chief and Jim in light of their recent loss of Mrs. Jerkens.

The daunting issue is how Wicked Strong lost the race at the wire to his uncoupled entry mate and how clever JJ"S agent was to grab the mount.

Moreover, I really respect the riding abilities of Jose Lezcano and his
agent, precisely why I tossed VE despite JJ getting the mount.

Then again, the memory of Onion should have pushed me for a
"saver tri".

Definitely a Travers race to remember, including btw, a great
finish for TD"S Travers race calls.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Valuist
08-24-2014, 11:40 AM
Congratulations on hitting the race. I clearly was wrong. Although my one "out there" backup was 6-7 with 6-7 with the 8 3rd and 4th in the super. Thought I had a great shot at it at the top of the stretch. Oh well, I only lost 180 on the race.

Thank God for Fairmount Park tonight.

Might be the only time the words "God" and "Fairmount Park" were ever used in a sentence that didn't also include the word "damn".

Valuist
08-24-2014, 11:47 AM
As for the race, it turned out to be a very forgettable version of the Travers. I heard the winning Beyer was in the 102-103 range. The East Coast 3 year olds are not a particularly strong group.

Robert Fischer
08-24-2014, 12:28 PM
I'll have to re-watch the race to really analyze it. Obviously Bayern stopped, and Wicked Strong ran fairly big.

Have to re-watch the run to the first turn (long run there at Saratoga), as the pace developed a little differently than expected. Tonalist looks to be a bit flat in general now, but he may get a little extra credit depending on how the start went.

V. E. Day - Man... He ran very well. I'm a little upset that I dismissed him. I could see that he was a Grade-2 or better animal, -as far as physical horse-flesh. I could not see him as a complete race horse. His fundamentals looked poor. I saw in the video that in his final work he was fundamentally sound, but it looked to be more of a maintenance move.
He was fortunate to move last in the Travers, and on first glance, Wicked Strong may have out-performed him, but it was a legitimate race. He may be an addition to the Grade-1 3yo group this year.

Cholly
08-24-2014, 12:51 PM
What a great race! Six thousand six hundred feet traveled and it still came down to a nose. Burnsy noted above Tonalist drifted in the first turn carrying Wicked Strong wide also--well more than the margin of defeat lost in that maneuver. But if Wicked Strong gave the best performance, he still stamped that he is a very good horse who finished in front many merely good horses, got nosed by a horse who we don’t know what kind of horse is. Wicked is a very good horse but likely not a champion--the division’s reigning Champion is in training at Los Alamitos.

Yesterday’s Travers was a reiteration of why 10 furlongs on the dirt is considered the classic distance. The difference from a 1-⅛ mile may only be an extra furlong, but it’s eons removed as indication of class. These provide by far the most interesting and entertaining races to watch; they separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the bayerns--er, boys.

Speaking of Bayern, some public handicappers and media may have picked against him, but Maggie Wolfendale publicly said this horse has zero chance of getting 10 furlongs...actually, she didn’t use the word “zero”, but it didn’t take much reading between the lines to get that take from her comments.

PhantomOnTour
08-24-2014, 01:10 PM
As for the race, it turned out to be a very forgettable version of the Travers. I heard the winning Beyer was in the 102-103 range. The East Coast 3 year olds are not a particularly strong group.
Pains me to admit it because I love NY racing, but Shared Belief and Cali Chrome are the clear class of the division...and Bayern at the right distance can beat all 3yr olds.

Robert Fischer
08-24-2014, 01:53 PM
What a great race! Six thousand six hundred feet traveled and it still came down to a nose.
That was a heck of a race.
From the entries, to the handicapping on into the race itself, that is what you want out of a Grade 1 experience.

classhandicapper
08-24-2014, 02:09 PM
I didn't take the horses from the Curlin seriously.

I don't think the winner so much supported the quality of the Curlin as I think Jerkens is on fire and moved the horse up again.

zico20
08-24-2014, 02:30 PM
Pains me to admit it because I love NY racing, but Shared Belief and Cali Chrome are the clear class of the division...and Bayern at the right distance can beat all 3yr olds.

This is the most astute comment made all week, by far. :) Couldn't have said it better myself.

zico20
08-24-2014, 02:32 PM
Might be the only time the words "God" and "Fairmount Park" were ever used in a sentence that didn't also include the word "damn".

You don't need GOD to pick winners on a consistant basis at Fairmount. However, it sure doesn't hurt to have him on your side at every other track in America.

zico20
08-24-2014, 02:42 PM
Yep. They rode the race as if everyone else had no chance and all they had to do was put away Bayern and turn it into a match race.

I agree completely with this comment. If I was the jockey on either Tonalist or Wicked Strong this is what you HAD to think. Can't let Bayern steal it and we are by far the class and speed that are heads above the rest. It just didn't work out for the two. The two jocks rode like it was a three horse race.

cj
08-24-2014, 02:47 PM
I agree completely with this comment. If I was the jockey on either Tonalist or Wicked Strong this is what you HAD to think. Can't let Bayern steal it and we are by far the class and speed that are heads above the rest. It just didn't work out for the two. The two jocks rode like it was a three horse race.

I'm not sure I'd have been that crazy chasing Bayern. Make him earn the lead, sure, but at 10F I'd have taken my chances...and I'm somebody that really likes Bayern.

Redboard
08-24-2014, 02:56 PM
That was a heck of a race.
From the entries, to the handicapping on into the race itself, that is what you want out of a Grade 1 experience.
My sentiments exactly. It was a fantastic race.

Robert Fischer
08-24-2014, 03:08 PM
after watching the replay = I can't fault the tactics of the jockeys too much.

Yea Tonalist was a little more forward and wide than he hoped, but they didn't seem to be going crazy fast early.

Wicked Strong had a dream beginning.

I don't think you can blame the jockeys for not knowing that Bayern would stop after 8.5 furlongs on a "tiring" track.

Approaching the far turn, Wicked Strong was asked/moved too soon.
It's still hard to blame the jockey there - for all he knew, Bayern was being "rested" a little.
But had Wicked Strong been more patiently ridden at that point, he would have won.

Bayern and Tonalist had flat efforts. The track was also "tiring".

classhandicapper
08-24-2014, 07:06 PM
I don't think you can blame the jockeys for not knowing that Bayern would stop after 8.5 furlongs on a "tiring" track.



I agree. Knowing that Bayern's ability to carry his speed long was not verified by the Haskell required that you know how the track was playing at MTH that day. It's hard to blame the jockey's too much for not knowing that. Some people may not even agree with my analysis, but I know Brad Thomas did because I asked him about it last week. He's the MTH guru.

I think the aggressiveness was suspect because it wasn't necessary. All they had to do was keep him honest. Neither of those horses has anywhere near the natural speed of Bayern. Sure they could get him beat by making him work hard, but not without sacrificing themselves to some extent also as they did.

affirmedny
08-24-2014, 08:20 PM
As for the race, it turned out to be a very forgettable version of the Travers. I heard the winning Beyer was in the 102-103 range. The East Coast 3 year olds are not a particularly strong group.

Where did the west coast horse finish?

Grits
08-24-2014, 08:24 PM
Where did the west coast horse finish?

Rochester, maybe.

Robert Fischer
08-24-2014, 10:07 PM
I think the aggressiveness was suspect because it wasn't necessary. All they had to do was keep him honest. Neither of those horses has anywhere near the natural speed of Bayern. Sure they could get him beat by making him work hard, but not without sacrificing themselves to some extent also as they did.

It's a complicated problem.

They really couldn't have kept him honest to any degree, without doing what they did.

Tonalist certainly wasted some energy and could have run a little better had he been ridden conservatively earlier. Wicked Strong had about as efficient a start as you could ask for.

I suppose Wicked Strong could have been rated back and made one run, but that negates his big step forward in the Jim Dandy with the blinkers, it possibly gives a tactical advantage to both of the name rivals, and it introduces other possible trip issues.

I think it's also pretty clear that at this point Wicked Strong is either in better form, or simply flat out better than Tonalist.

I graded Wicked Strong as the top performer in the Travers.
The performances of Tonalist and V.E. Day looked relatively close to me.

Redboard
08-24-2014, 10:30 PM
It's a complicated problem.



I think it's also pretty clear that at this point Wicked Strong is either in better form, or simply flat out better than Tonalist.

I graded Wicked Strong as the top performer in the Travers.


I'm not so sure that if Tonalist had the same trip that Wicked Strong had, the results would have different. They couldn't let Bayern get lose on the lead, somebody had to contest him.

classhandicapper
08-25-2014, 09:44 AM
It's a complicated problem.

They really couldn't have kept him honest to any degree, without doing what they did.



I guess this is where the debate lies.

I think there is a lot of room between taking a hard hold and allowing Bayern to walk in the lead vs. being as aggressive as they were.

To be honest, given my view of Bayern, I would have allowed him to walk on the lead over doing what they did. I tossed Bayern from my exactas and trifectas. I don't bet trifectas often because I rarely think a favorite I am trying to beat is very likely to finish off the board. But I thought Bayern was likely to be out. 30 seconds into the race I knew he was off the board. Of course I didn't cash. If VE Day finished 2nd or 3rd, I would have had the exacta and triple. I didn't have him on top. I played him and Kid Cruz to possibly suck up for a piece. I got nothing but a moral victory.

sammy the sage
08-25-2014, 09:55 AM
Damned if you do...damned if you don't....rock/hard place...

Races get STOLEN every week of THE year by lone speed who looks short but allowed easy...still wins for fun...

Famous examples of course being Da'tara or Little Mike (2 times) ect...

Tom
08-25-2014, 10:21 AM
Rochester, maybe.

Nope.
Haven't seen him here! :D

Rex Phinney
08-25-2014, 11:56 AM
Where did the west coast horse finish?

He was distracted counting his take from the previous two east coast races, the ones he walked out of with all the $$$.

Cratos
08-25-2014, 06:02 PM
After thinking some more about the Travers race of last Saturday it reminded me of the 1978 JCGC in which Seattle Slew lost to Exceller by a neck after dueling with Affirmed on the front end.

I believe Clement instructed his jockey, Rosario to be aggressive with Tonalist and contest the pace early given what happened to Tonalist in the Jim Dandy when they allowed Wicked Strong to control the pace.

With that in mind Maragh on Wicked Strong picked up the chase and the two horses were caught in a contested pace against each other at 1-1/4 miles which is never good not unless it is a Secretariat type horse.

Therefore V.E. Day was sitting “pretty” at the 1-1/8 mile mark and full of run which his jockey, Castellano exerted on the two tiring front runners and the rest is history.

Also I don’t believe Bayern was ever a consideration by Clement because of the distance.

zico20
08-25-2014, 06:39 PM
Damned if you do...damned if you don't....rock/hard place...

Races get STOLEN every week of THE year by lone speed who looks short but allowed easy...still wins for fun...

Famous examples of course being Da'tara or Little Mike (2 times) ect...

Absolutely agree with you here. Put Bayern in a match race against VE Day at a mile and a quarter and Bayern will beat him every single time right now. It is a fallacy that horses can't get the distance. They all can, it just depends how fast they can get it. Horses just don't stop at a certain point. Allow any horse to lope along in pedestrian fractions with a big lead and they will win just about every time, no matter what the distance.