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Ray2000
08-21-2014, 06:59 AM
Betting the favorite to Place has the best ROI percent (-9.0%) in this group of ~5200 races Feb-Aug '14
Now if there was only some way to toss out the bad favorites.... ;)


Does any ADW offer conditional bet on Fave if ...(criteria)



also:
In a small sample of 27 races, only 2 showed a change in the favorite from 0 mtp to closing odds.

mrroyboy
08-21-2014, 01:37 PM
Well that's why I have tried to start discussions etc. If we can come up with elimination guidelines etc and throw out those bad favs we turn that into + roi. Good for exactas and more.

imofe
08-21-2014, 02:18 PM
I think it can be done. But it is not just separating certain favorites from each other. I believe it is more situational. Not just the ability of the horse. I would look for horses that will be on the lead at front favoring tracks and are most likely not going to be pressured by an all or nothing brush type horse. We also don't want our horse to be a win or fade horse. Obviously, trotters are much more likely to break. This may not be a big deal if you are making a win bet on a 5/1 trotter. But if you want win/place consistency, avoid these races. This is just scratching the surface on what can be a very detailed project.

Sea Biscuit
08-21-2014, 02:34 PM
Betting the favorite to Place has the best ROI percent (-9.0%)

Ray: Just one question.

How can it be good if the said ROI is in the negative.

Ray2000
08-21-2014, 02:49 PM
Sea, not "good", just best of the group. -9% ROI is almost break even with rebates...

imofe, good point ...avoid the "Silky Sullivan" effect.

roy, that's why I was looking at this data.

There's a recent thread* in the T-bred section where 'shouldacoulda' states
"...The trick is spotting one.."....how true

But false faves in Harness is a different game.

We have driver ability, breakers, potential traffic problems and early speed placement,
all which I believe to be more important in Standardbreds vs T-Bred because of the uniformity of the distance.


In my last "screwy" run** had 'PLACE' bets on robot picks outperforming the 'WIN' bets on ROI but it had nothing to do with crowd choice.

I'll start a new run here, with the same robot pick method but only betting "PLACE" if the bot pick is favorite.
(Chester race is over and and that one is redboarding but give me that one OK gang?. :) ..$3.80)


Aug 21, 2014
Hoosier R6............# 4 Always A Diamond-7/2
Hoosier R10...........# 5 Ks Hall-3/1
Hoosier R11...........# 4 E R Oliver-10/1
Mohawk R10............# 7 Little Red Chev-15/1
Northfield R7.........# 5 Naked At The Beach-4/1
Northfield R9.........# 3 Vodkainduceddreams-7/2
Northfield R12........# 4 Sturdy'S Baby-7/2
Chester R4............# 5 Wisenheimer-5/2
Saratoga R5...........# 6 Canamerica-9/2
Saratoga R8...........# 4 Brickyard Nellie-3/1
Yonkers R1............# 1 Putnams Glory-3/1



**
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=115236&page=4


*http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113961

Poindexter
08-21-2014, 04:17 PM
2 things. What would happen if you eliminated bad posts from your sample? Anything outside of post 6. I would have to believe your roi would improve. Regarding getting rid of bad favorites, I doubt you have this information in your database, but I would start with any horse coming out of a race where he had a perfect trip(examples) had lead on a slow paced race, sat a 2 hole trip behind somebody that went too fast(especially the 3rd quarter-where the leader ends up burning out the first over horse and kills the overland train) or the other phenomenon a horse that goes first or 2nd over to a weak leader(maybe a longshot, or just a horse who doesn't fire) and the first over horse faces little resistance and the pocket sitters end up shuffled out of the race while the overland train has gained momentum. It is not always easy to get a trip so any horse who benefited from one in his last race would be the perfect toss in my opinion.

imofe
08-21-2014, 05:20 PM
I think you make some good points about outside posts. Let's say you have a horse that just wired the field in a similar class from Post 3. Today he has drawn Post 7 and there is a big speed horse inside of him. A few bad things can happen that were not going to happen last week. He might never see the rail. He might be forced to tuck in a two hole behind a horse that might stop in front of him. But yet he is still the favorite and the most likely horse to win, but not a great place bet.

Ray2000
08-22-2014, 07:21 AM
Poindexter, I checked inside faves (posts 1-6) but the numbers were about the same
In the data base races I used,
In 4455 of those races the favorite started from posts 1-6
1826 won (41%) returning $7577 (-15.0% ROI)
2747 finished 1st or 2nd (62%), returning $8073 for Place bets (-9.4% ROI)

imofe, You got that right
Trying to teach the robot on which horse(s) are likely to leave is really tricky.
I use the average position gained/lost from post to halfmile marker over last 6 starts,
adjusted for driver aggressiveness.




I'm still setting up this "Robot plays Chalk" run but yesterday's results were typical.
(I have to get away from manually checking Favorite status) :rolleyes:
Naked At The Beach and Wisenheimer actually won but didn't go off the fave, so not counted.
I did use some Harrington and Monti chalk picks in setting up the spreadsheet.
..... Bet Return
Win 26 32
Place 26 29
Here we go for Friday, August 22, 2014
Scoring will be on $2 Place Betting IF the Pick goes off the favorite else pass.
Batavia R4............# 1 Good Luck Penny-5/2
Batavia R5............# 1 Helena'S Hope-5/2
Batavia R6............# 1 Bobby Be Good-3/1
Batavia R7............# 1 Milliondollardad-5/2
Batavia R10...........# 1 Soaring Honey-4/1
Maywood R1............# 4 Fox Valley Cupid-5/2
Maywood R2............# 3 Yanklet Hanover-8/5
Meadows R6............# 5 Myology-3/1
Meadows R14...........# 8 Global Magic-2/1
Mohawk R3.............# 3 Beach Gal-5/2
Mohawk R4.............# 5 Thatll Be Franny-7/5
Mohawk R9.............# 7 Lifetime Pursuit-6/5
Mohawk R11............# 6 Request For Parole-5/2
Northfield R1.........# 1 Laser Lucy-2/1
Northfield R4.........# 5 Umygeorgia Hanover-5/2
Northfield R5.........# 2 Classic Sakuri-4/1
Northfield R10........# 4 So Long My Love-7/2
Pocono R8.............# 1 Marathon Day-5/2
Chester R2............# 5 Gallie Bythe Beach-7/2
Chester R4............# 5 Bahama Blue-8/5
Chester R6............# 5 Shelliscape-4/1
Chester R8............# 2 Express Jet-8/5
Chester R9............# 2 Bondy N-9/5
Chester R12...........# 8 Also Encouraging-8/5
Chester R13...........# 6 Ya Want To Drag-8/5
Chester R14...........# 1 Jj Alex-8/5
Scioto R6.............# 6 Newbegining-3/1
Saratoga R3...........# 5 Rock This World-5/2
Saratoga R5...........# 4 Medicine Ed-5/2
Saratoga R6...........# 4 Pop I-5/2
Saratoga R8...........# 1 Morosita Bi-5/2
Tioga R6..............# 4 What About Brian-2/1
Tioga R7..............# 5 De Vins Girl-3/1
Vernon R3.............# 5 Morning Joe-5/2
Yonkers R12...........# 1 Virgin Mary-8/5

imofe
08-22-2014, 01:38 PM
imofe, You got that right
Trying to teach the robot on which horse(s) are likely to leave is really tricky.
I use the average position gained/lost from post to halfmile marker over last 6 starts,
adjusted for driver aggressiveness.

Ray,
Can you elaborate on this. How many races do you go back? What spread range are you looking for that shows one is much more likely to leave? How is driver aggressiveness measured?

mrroyboy
08-22-2014, 02:03 PM
Ray do you have any stats on these favorite's morning line odds? I am curious if "bet down" type favorites say 4-1 or better out perform morning line favorites.

Ray2000
08-22-2014, 03:00 PM
roy
I have them but not sure how to present it, let me think about that.

imofe
When I said "It's tricky"... that was an understatement :).
It's most likely the factor I use with the largest uncertainty.

What I do is use ALL 10 lines and get a propensity to leave by subtracting the call at the half from the modified starting post. (Modified means the 1st trailer is assigned post "1½" and the 2nd trailer is post "2½", etc).
This position change for each ppline is also modified by the driver's UDR rating and the driver's AG rating. (AG is my own numbers and is on a scale from 0 to Gingras :)). I average these lines and call it ..ground gained/lost from start to half but it does ignore gaps. This is different from other calculations, where I filter out only the 'good' lines in the past 40 days.

If this value is large positive then the horse is leaving, large negative means a closer, in between is a stalker.
Another subroutine is then used to predict the effort the leavers will need to gain the lead.

imofe
08-22-2014, 03:57 PM
Thanks Ray. It does sound tricky.

Poindexter
08-22-2014, 09:29 PM
[QUOTE=Ray2000]Poindexter, I checked inside faves (posts 1-6) but the numbers were about the same
In the data base races I used,
In 4455 of those races the favorite started from posts 1-6
1826 won (41%) returning $7577 (-15.0% ROI)
2747 finished 1st or 2nd (62%), returning $8073 for Place bets (-9.4% ROI)


Very interesting. Thanks, for the info, I expected different. Is your database able to determine stuff like fastest last 1/4 in last race or 1 of 2 fastest last 1/4's in last race, or fastest final time in last race or fastest trackmaster class rating in last race(or maybe you do no even use trackmaster).....

I assume horse that were 7th or worse at the 1/4 pole have a dismal roi (obviously eliminate a horse that broke since he cannot win) or are you really going to shock me.

Ray2000
08-23-2014, 06:40 AM
Poindexter
The data used for this analysis was derived from the charts, USTA and Standardbred Canada, and is not a good reflection of all NA races. It tends to be heavy weighted by Canadian tracks and some of the B tracks have pretty high take-outs on Win/Place bets. Then again, they break to the nickle which is significant when dealing with prices in the 2.20 - 3.00 range.

My interest was in the relative Win/Place roi's on faves so it suited me for that anyway. I needed to use the charts to find the 2nd and 3rd "Peoples Choice" horse, not available in a database of past performance lines.

As for your question on roi of closers I would have to use a different approach on that.




Yesterday... 35 Picks
26 went off the favorite, of those
17 won returning $61 .....roi-1.17
21 placed returning $53 ..roi-1.02


8/21/14 To 8/22/14 ---- 39 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 78 89 11 1.14 27 69%
Place 78 82 4 1.05 33 85%

Still doing this by hand so might need corrections. Some race had co faves :confused:

Saturday, August 23, 2014
R. Aces R6............# 5 Black Hammer-5/1
R. Aces R7............# 1 Diva Las Vegas-2/1
Batavia R12...........# 1 Hudson Gal-7/2
Mohawk R5.............# 1 Slip Into Glide-5/2
Plainridge R3.........# 3 Happy Surprise-9/5
Saratoga R3...........# 1 Livefreeordiehard-5/2
Saratoga R5...........# 1 Aussie Reactor A-8/5
Saratoga R7...........# 5 Fameous Western-5/2
Saratoga R9...........# 4 Valentino-5/2
Saratoga R10..........# 5 Clooney Drummond-8/5
Tioga R2..............# 5 Lauxmont Capri-3/1
Tioga R8..............# 5 Bikini So Teeny-5/2
Yonkers R7............# 4 Rampage Jackson-5/2
Yonkers R10...........# 1 Doctor Butch-3/2
Yonkers R11...........# 1 Aslan-5/2

Ray2000
08-24-2014, 06:40 AM
Yesterday 15 Picks
11 went off the favorite, of those
5 won returning $15 (-6)
8 placed returning $19 (-2)

8/21/14 To 8/23/14 ---- 50 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 100 104 4 1.04 32 64%
Place 100 101 1 1.01 41 82%

Sunday, August 24, 2014
Pocono R8.............# 4 Dawson City-5/2
Pocono R10............# 7 Beat The Drum-5/2
Pocono R12............# 3 Liberal-5/2
Chester R1............# 6 Tiger'S Too Good-8/5
Chester R5............# 4 Explodent-4/1
Chester R9............# 1 P H Supercam-9/5
Chester R10...........# 1 Worth The Money As-2/1
Chester R11...........# 4 Chilli Nz-8/5
Chester R13...........# 4 Mr Hasani N-8/5
Plainridge R4.........# 4 Up Tempo-6/5
Plainridge R5.........# 1 Mordecai-7/2
Plainridge R8.........# 1 Fashion Shark-4/1
Tioga R12.............# 6 On The Big Swing-5/2

EdZone
08-24-2014, 04:35 PM
Wow! Ray, you got 100% win in Chester today.. 6 for 6!

Ray2000
08-24-2014, 05:37 PM
thx ed, I noticed that,

Who needs this Place Betting crap? :D


6 Tiger's Too Good Tim Tetrick 2.40 2.10 2.10

4 Explodent George Brennan 6.80 4.40 3.00

1 P H Supercam Tim Tetrick 2.80 2.20 2.10

1 Worth the Money As Geo. Napolitan 3.80 2.40 2.40

4 Chilli Nz Tim Tetrick 2.60 2.20 2.10

4 Mr Hasani N Daniel Dube 3.20 2.10 2.10

Ray2000
08-25-2014, 05:45 AM
Sunday ended in a 'push', the best hit Explodent $6.80, wasn't the fave, not counted
Yesterday 13 Picks
11 went off the favorite, of those
9 won returning $24 (+2)
9 placed returning $20 (-2)

8/21/14 To 8/24/14 ---- 61 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 122 128 6 1.05 41 67%
Place 122 121 -1 0.99 50 82%

Monday, August 25, 2014
Grand River R10.......# 1 Fastimes-2/1
Harrington R3.........# 4 Dina'S Gamble-2/1
Harrington R6.........# 4 Blueridge Dancer-5/1
Harrington R9.........# 1 Sir Jonathan Z Tam-2/1
Meadows R1............# 3 Revrac Harbour-5/2
Meadows R4............# 2 Frost Free Hanover-5/2
Meadows R10...........# 2 Homepage-2/1
Mohawk R3.............# 6 Paper Backed Lindy-3/1
Monticello R1.........# 5 Talldarknhandsome-4/1
Monticello R7.........# 1 Diamond Tiara-3/1
Monticello R9.........# 2 Burlesque-9/5
Monticello R11........# 4 Oye Vera Bizzie-5/2
Northfield R1.........# 5 Viewlander-7/2
Northfield R5.........# 1 Smooth Power-2/1
Northfield R8.........# 1 Novascotia Hanover-5/2
Northfield R12........# 2 Super Lustre-2/1
Yonkers R3............# 5 Highland Rockstar-2/1
Yonkers R11...........# 5 Happily Ever After-2/1
Yonkers R12...........# 5 Someislandsomwhere-7/5

Ray2000
08-26-2014, 05:04 AM
Yesterday 1 scratch (MOH) and Sears had some bad luck w/ last 2 faves
19 Picks, 13 went off the favorite, of those
9 won returning $24 (-2)
11 placed returning $24 (-2)

8/21/14 To 8/25/14 ---- 74 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 148 152 4 1.03 50 68%
Place 148 145 -3 0.98 61 82%

Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Harrington R1.........# 5 Our Angel Hayleigh-5/1
Harrington R3.........# 2 Palm Beach-2/1
Harrington R5.........# 1 Aint No Maybe So-3/1
Harrington R10........# 1 Pearl Handlepistol-4/1
Hoosier R2............# 5 Next Flight Up-2/1
Hoosier R5............# 5 Jd'S Profiteer-3/1
Monticello R2.........# 1 Sir Jake'S Z Tam-4/1
Monticello R3.........# 1 Mixed Media-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 3 Western Conquest-7/2
Monticello R10........# 3 Dodger Hanover-5/2
Northfield R1.........# 5 Dream Kid-5/2
Northfield R3.........# 5 Buckeye Man-2/1
Northfield R7.........# 5 Papa Grande-3/1
Northfield R9.........# 2 Victory Candy Man-7/2
Northfield R11........# 3 Allamerican Pewter-5/2
Northfield R15........# 1 Chrome Seelster-3/1
Pocono R7.............# 1 Buffalino Hanover-7/2
Saratoga R1...........# 2 Teach Me To Bucky-6/5
Saratoga R4...........# 4 All Pro Hall-3/1
Saratoga R5...........# 5 Back From Vacation-2/1
Saratoga R7...........# 1 Sheer Action-5/2
Yonkers R12...........# 2 K-Lees Shakenbake-7/5

mrroyboy
08-26-2014, 12:58 PM
I love All American Pewter. That means probably 3-5 :bang:

_______
08-26-2014, 01:56 PM
Ray: Just one question.

How can it be good if the said ROI is in the negative.

If the takeout is more than 9%, then -9% is very good. It means he ID'd a robo bet that's better than random.

It's a great starting point.

mrroyboy
08-26-2014, 02:21 PM
I have been saying that all along

HuggingTheRail
08-27-2014, 12:28 AM
I love All American Pewter. That means probably 3-5 :bang:

Wow, must have been a lot of love!! :eek:

Ray2000
08-27-2014, 05:27 AM
Yesterday ...22 Picks, 19 went off the favorite, of those
10 won returning $28 (-10)
14 placed returning $34 (-4)

8/21/14 To 8/26/14 ---- 93 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 186 181 -5 0.97 60 65%
Place 186 179 -7 0.96 75 81%

Wednesday, August 27, 2014... Looks like Chalkapalooza is in town.... :D
Batavia R2............# 3 Koekemoer-5/2
Grand River R2........# 5 Account Rollover-8/5
Grand River R5........# 1 Dreamfair Dahlia-3/1
Harrington R2.........# 3 I Like My Boss-2/1
Harrington R3.........# 8 Bet The Truth-4/1
Harrington R4.........# 4 Color Me Royal-3/1
Harrington R6.........# 1 Six Gun Hall-5/1
Hoosier R1............# 4 B Yoyo-3/1
Hoosier R7............# 4 Eden Getitdone-3/1
Meadows R4............# 5 Avalanche Hanover-5/2
Meadows R9............# 2 Icy Chisel-5/2
Meadows R13...........# 7 Wear Art Antonio-7/2
Monticello R3.........# 1 Mr Tommy Fra-5/2
Monticello R5.........# 3 Mr Presley-5/2
Monticello R8.........# 4 Rose Run Nash-5/2
Pocono R13............# 1 Way Outta Here-5/2
Pocono R14............# 9 Caviart Shelly-3/1
Chester R1............# 5 Yagot Class-2/1
Chester R2............# 5 Electric Albert-9/5
Chester R3............# 3 Schalom G-8/5
Chester R5............# 4 Mudslide-9/5
Chester R6............# 7 Majority Rules-8/5
Chester R8............# 1 Smoother Ride-8/5
Chester R9............# 2 Papa Ray-7/2 :jump:
Chester R13...........# 4 David'S Dream-5/2
Plainridge R4.........# 1 Jet Flow-5/2
Plainridge R9.........# 8 Just Like Lloyd-7/2
Scioto R1.............# 4 Machs Delicacy-3/1
Scioto R7.............# 4 Mystra-3/1
Scioto R11............# 4 Pacific Wine-3/1
Scioto R12............# 1 The Shoe Fits-7/5
Saratoga R7...........# 4 V I P-5/2
Saratoga R11..........# 2 Sturdy As A Hall-7/5


note,
If betting all bot picks in this run, not just crowd favorites, then Place is ahead of Win by $4..... :sleeping:

8/21/14 To 8/26/14 ---- 118 Selects
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 236 233 -3 0.99 68 57%
Place 236 237 1 1.01 89 75%

Ray2000
08-28-2014, 05:09 AM
Yesterday
33 Picks, 1 scr, 26 went off the favorite, of those
17 won returning $53 (+1)
21 placed returning $55 (+3)

8/21/14 To 8/27/14 ---- 119 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 238 234 -4 0.98 77 65%
Place 238 235 -4 0.99* 96 81%

*Rounding 0 decimals makes the diff, actual returns
$234.10
$234.50 .... Place betting RULES :D

Thursday, August 28, 2014
Freehold R5...........# 2 Devil'S Arcade-9/5
Freehold R6...........# 1 Midnight Dylan N-7/5
Freehold R8...........# 4 Where'S Harry-5/1
Harrington R1.........# 6 Soggy Soggy-5/2
Harrington R12........# 8 Teika Rose-5/2
Monticello R4.........# 4 Ellen'S Streak-5/2
Northfield R10........# 3 Blindsided-2/1
Chester R4............# 4 Choco Sun-9/5
Chester R10...........# 6 Holy Halibut-3/1
Chester R12...........# 5 Dr Cal-5/2
Rideau R1.............# 5 Next To Go-2/1
Scioto R1.............# 1 No Excuses Please-4/1
Scioto R4.............# 1 Ima Ranger-3/1
Scioto R5.............# 6 Only Just A Dream-3/1
Scioto R10............# 2 Crosswind Colleen-3/1
Scioto R11............# 5 Rambling Reegan-4/1
Vernon R10............# 8 Gentlemens Delight-7/2

mrroyboy
08-28-2014, 04:11 PM
10th at Northfield. Blindsided looks like a best bet. Another Ray/Roy odds on special???

Ray2000
08-29-2014, 05:55 AM
Yesterday
Blindsided got blindsided hard roy, $2.40

17 Picks, 11 went off the favorite, of those
5 won returning $21 (-1)
8 placed returning $21 (-1)

8/21/14 To 8/28/14 ---- 130 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 260 256 -5 0.98 82 63%
Place 260 256 -5 0.98 104 80%

This time of the year, late Aug, the bot starts pickin' a lot of chalk.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Batavia R6............# 1 Blackwalls-2/1
Batavia R7............# 1 Elite-2/1
Freehold R2...........# 5 Mistresstothestars-5/2
Freehold R5...........# 1 Victom As-6/5
Freehold R7...........# 2 Captain Primeau-5/2
Freehold R8...........# 5 Harmony Oaks Quike-5/2
Grand River R6........# 1 My Kid Sister-8/5
Hoosier R2............# 5 The Face Of Love-3/1
Maywood R7............# 1 Summer Shandy-5/2
Maywood R13...........# 3 Someplace Special-9/2
Meadows R2............# 4 Global Magic-5/2
Meadows R5............# 1 Muscle Mountain-4/1
Mohawk R4.............# 6 Rebeka Bayama-5/2
Mohawk R9.............# 6 Lifetime Pursuit-1/5
Northfield R3.........# 1 Lock Up'S Galley-5/2
Northfield R11........# 2 Stacked Deck-5/2
Northfield R12........# 7 Im Shameless-9/2
Northfield R14........# 1 Norma Jean-5/2
Pocono R16............# 4 Donato'S Dream-4/1
Chester R1............# 5 Ginger Tree Alexis-8/5
Chester R2............# 3 Simple Saver N-8/5
Chester R3............# 5 Journey-5/2
Chester R4............# 3 Mccito-8/5
Chester R5............# 5 Charisma Hanover-9/5
Chester R7............# 5 Wakizashi Hanover-8/5
Chester R8............# 4 Panda Man-8/5
Chester R9............# 2 Beach Story-8/5
Chester R10...........# 4 Always Love Me-9/5
Chester R11...........# 2 Catch The Chicken-5/1
Scioto R1.............# 1 Scootie Best Lou-4/1
Scioto R2.............# 5 Margarita Man-3/1
Scioto R4.............# 2 Fits Well-3/1
Scioto R8.............# 4 Non Pareil-3/1
Saratoga R2...........# 5 Battleshoe Tom-3/1
Saratoga R3...........# 4 Blazin Benny-6/5
Saratoga R4...........# 3 Lucid Thoughts-5/2
Saratoga R5...........# 3 Sinful Vito-5/2
Saratoga R10..........# 1 Merlincrest-5/2
Saratoga R12..........# 1 Ginny And Tonic-5/2
Tioga R3..............# 5 What About Brian-5/2
Tioga R4..............# 6 Rub Thing-3/1
Tioga R10.............# 1 J D Eleven Bell'S-5/2
Yonkers R2............# 3 Bambino Hall-5/2
Yonkers R4............# 4 Wishing Stone-8/5
Yonkers R11...........# 1 Wisenheimer-9/5
Yonkers R12...........# 1 Coffee Addict-5/2

Ray2000
08-30-2014, 06:39 AM
Yesterday 2 hits just missed out being the fave. (not counted)
Always Love Me $7.80 $3.20
Lucid Thoughts $6.50 $3.60

46 Picks, 33 went off the favorite, of those
17 won returning $59.10 (-7)
23 placed returning $59.50 (-6) .........Place returns more by 40¢ :)

8/21/14 To 8/29/14 ---- 163 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 326 315 -11 0.97 99 61%
Place 326 315 -11 0.97 127 78%

Saturday, August 30, 2014
R. Aces R6............# 5 Delco Voracious-5/2
Balmoral R7...........# 5 Gimmeazzzmooch-4/1
Batavia R3............# 1 Vintage Fenom-3/1
Batavia R4............# 1 Vicky Winner-7/2
Batavia R7............# 4 Best Ears-5/2
Batavia R8............# 4 Freaky Flyer-2/1
Freehold R2...........# 1 Piece Of The Rock-2/1
Freehold R5...........# 5 C'Mon Buzz Off-2/1
Freehold R6...........# 4 Archetto Hanover-5/2
Freehold R8...........# 4 Willie Boots-2/1
Mohawk R3.............# 5 Jet Airway-9/5
Mohawk R4.............# 7 Beach Gal-5/2
Plainridge R5.........# 1 Lover'S Delight-9/5
Plainridge R6.........# 2 Artistic Rhythym-3/1
Plainridge R7.........# 6 Iheartquestionmark-5/2
Plainridge R8.........# 1 Murphy'S Ideal-9/5
Scioto R5.............# 4 Volo-3/1
Scioto R11............# 4 Doctor Carter-3/1
Scioto R12............# 1 Santa Fe Beachboy-7/5
Saratoga R1...........# 1 Blueridge Jezebel-5/2
Saratoga R2...........# 5 Ideal Carver-5/2
Saratoga R11..........# 2 Bondi Hanover-7/5
Tioga R1..............# 1 Flashbacks-5/2
Tioga R3..............# 3 Twin B Spike Man-2/1
Yonkers R7............# 5 Take It Back Terry-2/1
Yonkers R8............# 2 Big N Bad-2/1
Yonkers R10...........# 1 Stolen Car-2/1

DeltaLover
08-30-2014, 07:21 AM
Interesting thread and nice results so far..

One suggestion though:

Can you also record the size of the universe you are making your selections from?

By this I mean that if for example you have 46 picks (as you did yesterday) can you also record the total number of available races?

Ray2000
08-30-2014, 08:53 AM
thx Delta, can do....

In this time period 8/21-8/29 there were 1269 races at 22 different tracks
The program (bot) rejects Maidens and races with coupled entries so the universe would be 1131 races.
The filter to get the selections had criteria of
...Morning Line Rank must be < 4 and
...80% or greater estimated chance to Win
that produced the playlist I've posted here of 215 Picks

If all selections were bet Win and Place the results so far would be


8/21/14 To 8/29/14 ---- 213 Selections (2 scr)
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 426 422 -5 0.99 116 54%
Place 426 417 -9 0.98 155 73%



I've been posting results for those picks which ended up the crowd favorite to see if Place betting out-performs Win betting on select faves.
To try and bet them in real time would mean watching each toteboard and hoping the favorite (at last chance to get a bet down) doesn't change.

DeltaLover
08-30-2014, 09:07 AM
thx Delta, can do....

In this time period 8/21-8/29 there were 1269 races at 22 different tracks
The program (bot) rejects Maidens and races with coupled entries so the universe would be 1131 races.
The filter to get the selections had criteria of
...Morning Line Rank must be < 4 and
...80% or greater estimated chance to Win
that produced the playlist I've posted here of 215 Picks

If all selections were bet Win and Place the results so far would be


8/21/14 To 8/29/14 ---- 213 Selections (2 scr)
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 426 422 -5 0.99 116 54%
Place 426 417 -9 0.98 155 73%



I've been posting results for those picks which ended up the crowd favorite to see if Place betting out-performs Win betting on select faves.
To try and bet them in real time would mean watching each toteboard and hoping the favorite (at last chance to get a bet down) doesn't change.

When you say 80% winning percent, I have to assume that this represent more a calibration rather than actual percentage and this is perfectly fine for what we try to do here..

What is going to be interesting to see now, is how the remaining 916 (1131 – 215) races are behaving in comparison to the 215 actual picks.

In your experiment, what is really interesting is not how the win bet is going to compare against the place (I expected them to be very close) but the fact that you are able to create such a significant cluster.

Anyway, your postings make me to wander if I should consider a shift to standards ;)

Ray2000
08-30-2014, 10:29 AM
This is the summary for all 1131 races in the 'Universe'
I started to subtract out the 215 picks but the scratches confused me so I quit. :D


8/21/14 To 8/29/14 ---- 1110 races 21 scratches
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 2220 2129 -91 0.96 374 34%
Place 2220 2136 -84 0.96 574 52%


And yes, I shouldn't have called it a win chance, (I tend to think of it that way).
It is the Logistic Regression rating using coefs for
Track, Post, Gait, Dr, Tr, MoLine, Speed, Early Speed, ClassShift, WPS%,
and Last race: finish, odds, parkouts, and 4thQ

Win chance should be this number divided by the sum of all ratings.

Ray2000
08-31-2014, 05:23 AM
Yesterday once again..2 hits just missed out being the fave. (not counted)
Delco Voracious $5.20 $2.40
Stolen Car $4.80 $2.40

27 Picks from 113 Races,... 21 went off the Favorite, of those
14 won returning $44.20 (+2)
17 placed returning $42.30 (0)

8/21/14 To 8/30/14 ---- 184 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 368 359 -9 0.98 113 61%
Place 368 357 -11 0.97 144 78%

Sunday, August 31, 2014
Balmoral R1...........# 5 Rex Passus-5/2
Balmoral R8...........# 2 Native Lights-3/1
Batavia R6............# 3 Muscle Max-5/2
Batavia R10...........# 3 Call Jessica Le-4/1
Batavia R11...........# 4 Mystical Escapade-5/2
Pocono R5.............# 3 My Masterpiece-5/2
Pocono R8.............# 2 Liberal-5/2
Pocono R10............# 5 Rocknroll Reality-5/2
Chester R3............# 5 Mr Web Page-8/5
Chester R7............# 3 Bondy N-8/5
Chester R8............# 6 Modest Prince-8/5
Chester R9............# 3 Maytime Terror-5/2
Chester R11...........# 5 Voice Of Truth-9/2
Chester R12...........# 4 Camco Kyle-5/2
Chester R13...........# 5 Versado-2/1
Rideau R8.............# 2 Ken U Sing-2/1
Rideau R12............# 2 Slight Touch-2/1

teddy
08-31-2014, 11:59 AM
I tried for years to do something similar and I always found it was so difficult. I think of anybody can make that work out it would be you because you have a program that's going to look at a lot of factors and kick out a selectionbased on factors that many people wouldn't be able to calculator on their own. I think at one time I had 100 spot plays all showing .98 roi plus my rebate. Never worked when I bet real money. I found I spent 5 hours a day just watching races. I hope you can get that to work for yourself in real life with real money.

Ray2000
08-31-2014, 01:49 PM
Good to see your post again teddy, and you're right, tough to make a buck in the Place Pool. Even tougher this year as picking winners gets easier (early speed at most tracks is dominant :)) but prices are shrinking.... Win Prices that is, maybe not in the Place Pool.

The thing that got me looking at Place bets was the higher ROI on Favorites (vs Win ROI) in that group of 5200 races this year where I had some odds data. Since favorites are not all alike (low price/high price, easy trip/hard trip, inside/outside), there might be a subgroup with a positive ROI and yet not that rare of an instance as to make it unplayable.


Best of Luck, guy

Ray2000
09-01-2014, 05:09 AM
Yesterday
17 Picks from 50 Races,... 15 went off the Favorite, of those
10 won returning $34.10(+4)
12 placed returning $30.40 (0)

8/21/14 To 8/31/14 ---- 199 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 398 393 -5 0.99 123 62%
Place 398 388 -10 0.97 156 78%

Monday, September 01, 2014
Batavia R7............# 4 Hopskipanajump-5/1
Batavia R12...........# 1 Eagle Real One-5/2
Freehold R6...........# 2 Whataorse-6/5
Freehold R7...........# 1 Rachel Cuheno-9/5
Freehold R10..........# 2 Nf Independence-7/5
Grand River R4........# 5 Little Ben-2/1
Harrington R3.........# 2 Ziggy Sky-5/2
Harrington R4.........# 2 Jimmy Rip-5/2
Harrington R8.........# 4 Sir Jonathan Z Tam-2/1
Harrington R10........# 3 Dina'S Gamble-2/1
Chester R1............# 5 Dont Fool With Me-3/1
Chester R2............# 5 Mystery Island-5/2
Chester R8............# 3 Very Upset Richie-5/2
Chester R12...........# 8 Bambino Supreme-2/1
Chester R13...........# 2 Roar-9/5
Rideau R2.............# 2 Muscle Boytoy-2/1
Rideau R3.............# 2 Bahama Bay-2/1
Scioto R2.............# 4 Ms Toni Nigito-3/1
Scioto R7.............# 5 Grams Legacy-3/1
Scioto R8.............# 4 Cam East-5/1
Tioga R2..............# 6 Giddyallyougot-9/2
Tioga R5..............# 4 Mr Tommy Fra-9/2
Tioga R9..............# 6 He'S Watching-6/5
Vernon R9.............# 4 Daley Lovin-2/1
Yonkers R6............# 1 Joann'S Princess-3/1
Yonkers R9............# 1 Pams Legacy-4/5.............4/5? A TMaster line?

traynor
09-01-2014, 12:25 PM
I tried for years to do something similar and I always found it was so difficult. I think of anybody can make that work out it would be you because you have a program that's going to look at a lot of factors and kick out a selectionbased on factors that many people wouldn't be able to calculator on their own. I think at one time I had 100 spot plays all showing .98 roi plus my rebate. Never worked when I bet real money. I found I spent 5 hours a day just watching races. I hope you can get that to work for yourself in real life with real money.

Three words. "Correct for outliers."

Developing spot plays to generate a positive return on paper is not too difficult. After losing a bit of money, one eventually comes to realize that the inherent weakness in "spot plays" (meaning any type of wagering with a set of restrictive "rules" or "conditions" that must be met to "qualify") is that they are highly susceptible to distortion by outliers (that are unikely to repeat when the spot plays are applied to other sets of races).

Chasing imaginary positive ROIs that only exist in the specific clump of races used to formulate the "spot play" may be great fun for hobbyists and "only-on-paper bettors." It can be disastrous for those who actually bet on selection processes they believe to be predictive, but that only describe the results in a specific sample of races.

traynor
09-01-2014, 12:34 PM
Good to see your post again teddy, and you're right, tough to make a buck in the Place Pool. Even tougher this year as picking winners gets easier (early speed at most tracks is dominant :)) but prices are shrinking.... Win Prices that is, maybe not in the Place Pool.

The thing that got me looking at Place bets was the higher ROI on Favorites (vs Win ROI) in that group of 5200 races this year where I had some odds data. Since favorites are not all alike (low price/high price, easy trip/hard trip, inside/outside), there might be a subgroup with a positive ROI and yet not that rare of an instance as to make it unplayable.


Best of Luck, guy

You might ind some interesting (but possibly counter-intuitive) results by correlating the place mutuels and win mutuels. While higher win mutuels usually mean higher place mutuels, there is a point at which the public seems to believe entries are such certain winners that betting to place is not useful. Depending on the specifc track (and betting habits of the bettors at that track) there are useful strategies that can be employed for place betting on what seem (superficially) to be short-priced favorites.

Ray2000
09-01-2014, 01:20 PM
thx traynor

That'll be one of the features I'll look at.

I have a lot of tote info from 5-7 years ago that's probably too old to use but might be OK for some subgroup criteria where I need larger sample sizes.

mrroyboy
09-01-2014, 02:03 PM
Good work as usual. All spot play methods and systems need common sense to make them work.

teddy
09-01-2014, 09:16 PM
My htr software produces a .95 roi in postposition1-3 for their top selection. With a few other general factors added. Must be favorite.The best rebates I can get on win place and show are only 5%. so to be profitable I have to improve the softwares roi with pace handicapping. Or something.

Ray2000
09-02-2014, 07:01 AM
My htr software produces a .95 roi in postposition1-3 for their top selection. With a few other general factors added. Must be favorite.The best rebates I can get on win place and show are only 5%. so to be profitable I have to improve the softwares roi with pace handicapping. Or something.
teddy
Take at look at conditional betting @ 0 MTP... Win if in range 3/1 to 5/1 odds, Place if >5/1
A quick look at ROIs for this computer run, (betting fave or not fave) using criteria in reply #30 shows


Odds
Range Win Place Races
0-1 0.85 0.92 111
1-2 0.88 0.88 251
2-3 1.02 0.99 197
3-5 1.17 0.95 169
5+ 0.87 1.12 145

but sample size is way too small.

Ray2000
09-02-2014, 07:05 AM
Yesterday, 'fish wrap' did good on Place bets... 81% strike, 1.13 ROI on 26 picks from 91 Races
19 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $27.80 (-10)
16 placed returning $40.40 (+2)

I keep a running Z test to see if the difference in average returns is significant.
Z values below .05 are trust worthy, still need about 150 more picks to reach 95% CI

Win Place
Base mean faves 1.71 1.82 from original 5200 races
This Run mean 1.93 1.96
Z test 0.029 0.026


8/21/14 To 9/1/14 ---- 218 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 436 421 -15 0.96 132 61%
Place 436 428 -8 0.98 172 79%

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Harrington R1.........# 4 Dream N Ezy-4/1
Harrington R6.........# 3 Monochromatic-3/1
Harrington R10........# 2 Certitude-5/1
Harrington R11........# 1 Jonigold-5/2
Meadows R15...........# 5 Real Drama-3/2
Monticello R3.........# 1 Diamond Tiara-5/2
Monticello R12........# 1 Rusty'S Flying-5/2
Monticello R14........# 3 Carrie Ann-3/1
Northfield R2.........# 1 Legal Brief-5/2
Northfield R4.........# 3 Craig Michael-4/1
Northfield R5.........# 9 Kahoku-2/1
Northfield R8.........# 3 Chase The Sun-5/2
Northfield R15........# 9 Wardog Hall-5/2
Yonkers R1............# 3 Twin B Spy-2/1
Yonkers R3............# 4 Moliere Hanover-9/5
Yonkers R5............# 7 Zoey De Vie-9/5
Yonkers R10...........# 1 Meetbehindthebarn-6/5
Yonkers R11...........# 1 Uf Rockin Dragon-5/1

LottaKash
09-02-2014, 12:09 PM
Yesterday, 'fish wrap' did good

So the Bot got a new name I see, Ray...:jump:

Ray2000
09-02-2014, 12:24 PM
So the Bot got a new name I see, Ray...:jump:
Yeah LK, baby-bot needed a new name. ...."

Like another Johnny said "...I knew you'd have to get tough or die " :D

traynor
09-02-2014, 01:50 PM
My htr software produces a .95 roi in postposition1-3 for their top selection. With a few other general factors added. Must be favorite.The best rebates I can get on win place and show are only 5%. so to be profitable I have to improve the softwares roi with pace handicapping. Or something.

HTR is for harness races?

LottaKash
09-02-2014, 02:16 PM
Yeah LK, baby-bot needed a new name. ...."

Like another Johnny said "...I knew you'd have to get tough or die " :D


HaHa..."Fish Wrap" lives !...:jump:

LottaKash
09-02-2014, 02:18 PM
HTR is for harness races?

Tray, I thought that question too...:confused:

teddy
09-02-2014, 06:23 PM
Are you guys serious? You have to ask what HTR is? After this many years on here. Were talking about betting the fav to place ..Im sure there is some carryover between them based on public attitudes on betting to show or place on a chalk. Post position .. jockey or driver...

teddy
09-02-2014, 06:31 PM
thx Delta, can do....

In this time period 8/21-8/29 there were 1269 races at 22 different tracks
The program (bot) rejects Maidens and races with coupled entries so the universe would be 1131 races.
The filter to get the selections had criteria of
...Morning Line Rank must be < 4 and
...80% or greater estimated chance to Win
that produced the playlist I've posted here of 215 Picks

If all selections were bet Win and Place the results so far would be


8/21/14 To 8/29/14 ---- 213 Selections (2 scr)
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 426 422 -5 0.99 116 54%
Place 426 417 -9 0.98 155 73%



I've been posting results for those picks which ended up the crowd favorite to see if Place betting out-performs Win betting on select faves.
To try and bet them in real time would mean watching each toteboard and hoping the favorite (at last chance to get a bet down) doesn't change.


Ray how do you get to that number of 80% or greater chance of winning... that would be 1-5 projected odds?? If you were using an odds line to project winning chances.

LottaKash
09-02-2014, 07:01 PM
Are you guys serious? You have to ask what HTR is? After this many years on here. Were talking about betting the fav to place ..Im sure there is some carryover between them based on public attitudes on betting to show or place on a chalk. Post position .. jockey or driver...

Teddy, HTR, as far as I know is a T-bred program....So, the question I would ask is; is there a Harness version ?..

Other than that, I have no working knowledge of any software program's for horse racing...or what they do with favorites, place or show options.. :cool:

Ray2000
09-02-2014, 07:05 PM
teddy

You'd be surprised how many harness people in this forum don't recognize "HTR". I had to Google it. :blush:
http://htr2.com/km/index.htm


As for that number of 80%, ....I made a mistake calling it a Win percentage, it's not. (see my reply #32 in this thread).
It's a score generated for each entry in a race by using a set of logistic regression coefficients developed for a variety of factors using all pplines for year 2013.

mrroyboy
09-02-2014, 07:18 PM
It's a score generated for each entry in a race by using a set of logistic regression coefficients developed for a variety of factors using all pplines for year 2013.

__________________

Uh Ok Ray. Whatever you say. :confused:

teddy
09-02-2014, 10:13 PM
LOL I thought it was the usual slamming i get.. I didnt know htr was abscure.... Its all ever used. Yeah ray you are way over my head. I sell ecigs for a living. I did plug into my software the ml greater than 4, and very high score of 108 and above out of 115, Thats the ranking score on HTR. It did very well if the favorite was given a rating of very vulnerable... Makes sense. bad fav...overlay on ml .. horse has high chance based on rankings

Ray2000
09-03-2014, 06:10 AM
roy I know, the math approach doesn't interest many players...

I started with the SulkyPicker computer programs, (VB and Spreadsheet versions) that I posted here 4 years ago. It was constructed to find longshots in favorite-vulnerable races. One of its weaknesses is missing the 2nd and 3rd horse in the exotics. So I built robot 2 to look for horses with the highest chances of finishing 1st or 2nd. That's where the logistic regression approach came into play. On my posts here we joked about "marrying" the 2 bots and creating a baby-bot which is what I'm using now.

That 80 score number from bot #2 is what I'm using for this run. A level that the bot gives to a high chance of Placing.


Yesterday, 18 picks from 73 Races
12 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $25.40 (+1)
10 placed returning $23.60 (0)

2 Nice hits weren't the favorite so not counted...
Dream N Ezy 5.80 3.00
Uf Rockin Dragon 14.00 4.40...how this one made the bot's 'fave list' is a head scratcher. :confused:


8/21/14 To 9/2/14 ---- 230 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 460 446 -14 0.97 141 61%
Place 460 452 -8 0.98 182 79%

Wednesday, September 03, 2014
Balmoral R6...........# 9 Yermanos-9/2
Balmoral R8...........# 6 Cardinal Wind-6/1
Batavia R1............# 1 Looks R Deceiving-5/2
Batavia R2............# 1 Ml Gambler-5/2
Batavia R3............# 1 Magnolia-5/2
Batavia R11...........# 4 Glass In The Sand-5/2
Grand River R7........# 1 Dowebetumnhowe-2/1
Harrington R1.........# 5 Sea Raven-2/1
Harrington R2.........# 1 Ideal Revenue-3/1
Harrington R3.........# 2 Quick Art-3/1
Harrington R4.........# 5 Sweet Joe-5/2
Harrington R5.........# 1 I Like My Boss-2/1
Harrington R7.........# 5 Hoof It N-3/1
Hoosier R2............# 4 Next Flight Up-8/5
Monticello R3.........# 4 Dana'S Sharp Smart-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 3 Mixed Media-3/1
Monticello R10........# 1 Tylers Great-3/1
Pocono R5.............# 2 Annapolis-3/1
Pocono R10............# 1 Scirocco Miley Kay-3/1
Chester R2............# 3 David'S Dream-8/5
Chester R6............# 2 Della Cruise-4/1
Chester R13...........# 5 Brody-9/5
Chester R14...........# 3 Salevster Stallion-8/5
Plainridge R5.........# 7 Just Like Lloyd-5/2
Scioto R8.............# 4 Bittersweet Best-3/1
Scioto R12............# 4 Real Joke-6/1

mrroyboy
09-03-2014, 02:38 PM
Thank you Ray

teddy
09-03-2014, 07:24 PM
not to get off topic but I'm looking at my software pick that select a horse that wins 50% of the time and run seconds 75%. Key him in tri in win for a $50 ticket and place in a $25 ticket. Make sense?

teddy
09-03-2014, 07:49 PM
ray by the way the thought of a bot on the women and a bot for place horses is actual part of HTR.It seems to pick the same horses to win as place.

Ray2000
09-03-2014, 08:14 PM
I would think the 2 breeds are quite different when it comes to the percentage of Losing Favorites that miss board completely. The breaking stride factor occurs in Standardbreds but I've never seen any numbers that prove sulky faves miss more often. Maybe T-breds quit in stretch more often from exhaustion since they don't "motor" for half the race?

teddy
09-03-2014, 09:50 PM
well it looks like the big favorites either when or run second. After that there's no reason for them to run 3rd or 4th evidently something has happened to them in the race affecting the race for their style and they were not as effective as the beyer rating would indicate when they run a perfect race.

Ray2000
09-04-2014, 05:17 AM
Yesterday, 26 picks from 97 Races
16 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $31.10 (-1)
12 placed returning $29.90 (-2)

Test run has an above average Win ROI (1.03) and Strike (55%) on all 327 posted picks.
But Place bets still out performing Win bets when pick is the "Peoples Choice".

8/21/14 To 9/3/14 ---- 246 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 492 477 -15 0.97 150 61%
Place 492 482 -10 0.98 194 79%

Thursday, September 04, 2014 Seems to be a lot of tracks racing on Thursdays
Freehold R5...........# 5 Where'S Harry-8/5
Freehold R6...........# 2 Up Up And Out-6/5
Freehold R7...........# 1 Eng-Amer Davanti-2/1
Freehold R8...........# 6 Esprit De Kayjay A-9/5
Freehold R9...........# 1 Real Mystical-5/2
Flamboro R5...........# 5 Windsun Bolt-3/1
Harrington R1.........# 1 Pacific Wine-2/1
Harrington R3.........# 1 Lengthoftime-5/2
Harrington R9.........# 1 Capote-2/1
Hoosier R3............# 5 Geared To Win-4/1
Hoosier R9............# 5 Ahlbback Yankee-3/1
Maywood R7............# 5 Hotmones-7/2
Meadows R7............# 5 Baby Kay-2/1
Meadows R13...........# 5 Summer Indian-1/1
Mohawk R5.............# 1 Justabit Mean-3/1
Mohawk R10............# 3 Dana Dearest-3/1
Monticello R2.........# 5 Dc Northern-5/2
Monticello R6.........# 4 Keystone Isabella-5/2
Monticello R9.........# 1 Hurricane Breeze-7/2
Northfield R2.........# 2 Amigo Rapido-5/2
Northfield R3.........# 1 Pinefullofboots-2/1
Northfield R4.........# 2 Fixthedeficit-5/2
Northfield R9.........# 1 Sharp Action-2/1
Northfield R12........# 9 Contessa Leigh-2/1
Chester R3............# 4 Walltocousins-3/1
Chester R5............# 3 Fiftyshadesdarker-3/1
Chester R6............# 5 Rosslyn Chapel-2/1
Chester R11...........# 4 Team Six-3/1
Chester R12...........# 4 Stirling Bullet-9/5
Chester R13...........# 3 Backstreet Hanover-5/2
Chester R14...........# 4 Peachys Pistol-3/1
Scioto R1.............# 1 Swinging Cami-4/1
Scioto R5.............# 5 Over And Out-8/1
Scioto R7.............# 2 Countmymuscles-3/1
Scioto R12............# 5 Woo Shark-5/1

No Yonkers picks ? All were low confidence <0.80

Ray2000
09-05-2014, 06:39 AM
Yesterday, ..worst day of test run
35 picks from 133 Races, 2 scratched, 2 broke
23 went off the Favorite, of those
12 won returning $32.80 (-13)
17 placed returning $41.60 (-4)

8/21/14 To 9/4/14 ---- 269 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 538 510 -28 0.95 162 60%
Place 538 523 -15 0.97 211 78%

Friday, September 05, 2014
Batavia R1............# 1 Kamanche Sun-2/1
Batavia R4............# 4 Muscle Max-7/2
Batavia R5............# 1 Ricky O Bay-9/5
Batavia R6............# 2 Powerful Love-2/1
Batavia R7............# 1 Beechwood Wayne-5/2
Batavia R11...........# 3 Justgottogetthere-2/1
Batavia R12...........# 1 Larry'S Dream-9/2
Freehold R3...........# 2 Lukas Hall-6/5
Freehold R4...........# 6 Official Liberty-5/2
Freehold R8...........# 3 Harmony Oaks Quike-9/5
Freehold R9...........# 5 Albanian Era-3/1
Freehold R11..........# 4 Forbettor Or Worse-4/1
Grand River R8........# 2 Meadowview Vicky-6/1
Mohawk R9.............# 3 Lady Dynamite-3/1
Monticello R2.........# 3 Putnams Art-2/1
Monticello R3.........# 4 Card Machine-5/2
Monticello R6.........# 5 Flower Girl Charis-7/2
Northfield R13........# 5 Sparkling Yankee-5/2
Chester R1............# 5 Armbro Casino-3/1
Chester R4............# 4 Native Art-9/2
Chester R6............# 5 Monkey On My Wheel-5/2
Chester R8............# 6 B J'S Skye-9/5
Chester R10...........# 3 Uf Dragon'S Queen-3/1
Chester R13...........# 3 Hot List-3/1
Scioto R2.............# 2 Up Front Kellie Jo-3/1
Scioto R4.............# 3 Burn Time Hanover-5/1
Scioto R8.............# 1 Bettor Think Twice-4/1
Scioto R11............# 4 Best Dream Seeker-3/1
Tioga R1..............# 5 Pan Luis Obispo-5/2
Vernon R1.............# 7 Royal Max-5/2
Yonkers R11...........# 1 Dw'S Ny Yank-7/5

Ray2000
09-06-2014, 06:07 AM
Yesterday, ..went from worst day of test run to the best
31 picks from 129 Races, 2 scratched, 2 cancelled
23 went off the Favorite, of those
15 won returning $61.50 (+16)
20 placed returning $56.10 (+10)....87% Strike Rate

8/21/14 To 9/5/14 ---- 292 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 584 572 -12 0.98 177 61%
Place 584 579 -5 0.99 231 79%

Saturday, September 06, 2014
Batavia R3............# 1 Terlingua-4/1
Batavia R6............# 1 Creating A Dream-3/1
Batavia R10...........# 3 Hang Ten-5/2
Freehold R1...........# 1 Big Puff Doggie-7/5
Freehold R4...........# 6 Upfront Cosmo-2/1
Freehold R5...........# 1 Prestissimo-2/1
Freehold R6...........# 1 C'Mon Buzz Off-1/1
Freehold R7...........# 5 Rockaholic-2/1
Freehold R8...........# 2 Only The Lonely-5/2
Freehold R10..........# 3 Northern Ideal-5/2
Flamboro R2...........# 1 Dontforgetmysugar-5/2
Flamboro R8...........# 1 Moment To Cherish-1/1
Mohawk R2.............# 2 Shamballa-4/5
Pocono R5.............# 1 Holy Halibut-3/1
Plainridge R6.........# 6 Ac'S Meadow Star-3/1
Scioto R8.............# 1 Full Code-3/1
Scioto R9.............# 5 Rockin Wizard-3/1
Tioga R7..............# 6 Spice It Up Lindy-7/2
Tioga R9..............# 4 Ashcroft-5/2

Ray2000
09-07-2014, 04:58 AM
Yesterday, 3 hits $6-$6-$7, not fave, not counted
19 picks from 88 Races
14 went off the Favorite, of those
6 won returning $19.30 (-9)
9 placed returning $22.50 (-6)

8/21/14 To 9/6/14 ---- 306 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 612 591 -21 0.97 183 60%
Place 612 602 -10 0.98 240 78%

Sunday, September 07, 2014
Balmoral R3...........# 2 Love This Place-4/1
Balmoral R4...........# 2 Celebrity Hercules-7/2
Balmoral R7...........# 2 Major Starlight-7/2
Flamboro R5...........# 3 Southwind Miami-6/5
Chester R2............# 4 Its That Time-5/2
Chester R4............# 4 Scott Rocks-2/1
Chester R13...........# 5 P H Supercam-3/1
Plainridge R4.........# 4 Print It-2/1
Plainridge R5.........# 1 Tevenay Hall-3/2
Plainridge R6.........# 2 Unique Sign-9/2
Plainridge R7.........# 5 Forced Passage-9/5
Rideau R9.............# 4 Whitewater Rapids-2/1
Rideau R11............# 1 Solid Performance-2/1
Tioga R3..............# 3 Cam Faire-2/1
Tioga R7..............# 5 Momma'S Jolt-4/1

Ray2000
09-08-2014, 05:40 AM
Yesterday, 1 scr, & 1 refund on Solid Performance (wasn't within 20? lengths at start)
15 picks from 45 Races
11 went off the Favorite, of those
4 won returning $17.70 (-4)
9 placed returning $24.80 (+3)

8/21/14 To 9/7/14 ---- 317 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 634 609 -25 0.96 187 59%
Place 634 627 -7 0.99 249 79%

Monday, September 08, 2014
Harrington R2.........# 4 Dina'S Gamble-2/1
Harrington R3.........# 1 Major Merlo-5/2
Harrington R4.........# 1 Believe This Bob-5/2
Harrington R5.........# 4 Invictus Hanover-5/1
Mohawk R2.............# 7 Smarty Pants-7/2
Monticello R3.........# 5 Edie'S Desire-5/2
Monticello R6.........# 3 Slickety Split-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 6 Rusty'S Flying-7/2
Monticello R9.........# 4 Dc'S Piggy Bank-5/2
Monticello R10........# 2 Burlesque-9/5
Yonkers R5............# 1 Musclesprinctonian-3/1
Yonkers R7............# 3 Banderosa-2/1
Yonkers R9............# 1 Super Soph-7/5

BTW
While looking at Place betting, I noticed a strange difference in the average "place prices" between those who finished 1st (won) and those who finished second. At first I thought "Well that's easy to explain, more low price horses finish 1st whereas longshots have a higher chance to finish 2nd as opposed to winning. But now on second thought,... I'm not so sure. :confused:
Wouldn't the odds percentiles of those winning horses mirror the image of those finishing 2nd? In other words, aren't there as many 5/1's winning as there are finishing exactly 2nd? ....needs more work.

79,450 races 2012-2014
average place price of winning horse .......... $5.28
average place price of horse finishing 2nd.... $7.87

Maybe I'm reading too much into this because I think the crooks try not to win but want their longshot on the ticket without being drug tested. JMO

mrroyboy
09-08-2014, 03:22 PM
Good point Ray Check it out.

Ray2000
09-09-2014, 06:14 AM
Yesterday
13 picks from 53 Races
11 went off the Favorite, of those
6 won returning $16.60 (-5)
8 placed returning $18.20 (-4)

8/21/14 To 9/8/14 ---- 328 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 656 625 -31 0.95 193 59%
Place 656 645 -11 0.98 257 78%

Tuesday, September 09, 2014
Batavia R3............# 1 Doctor Gates-5/2
Batavia R6............# 1 Wild Ride-3/1
Batavia R7............# 4 Mystical Escapade-5/2
Batavia R10...........# 1 Nutmegs Gem-9/2
Harrington R1.........# 8 Jonigold-5/2
Harrington R3.........# 1 I'M Won Rum Wiser-3/1
Harrington R5.........# 4 Lookout Stokk Zone-5/1
Harrington R7.........# 4 Terra Terror-5/2
Harrington R9.........# 1 Bad Night Mare-5/2
Meadows R1............# 5 A La Notte Hanover-5/1
Meadows R9............# 5 Lucy'S Pearl-5/2
Meadows R13...........# 5 Beach Fighter A-2/1
Monticello R4.........# 5 Dr Flamingo-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 1 C C Stormey-5/2
Monticello R8.........# 3 Mixed Media-5/2
Northfield R6.........# 2 High Gear Winner-2/1
Northfield R7.........# 5 All Shuttle-2/1
Northfield R9.........# 2 Mr Green-5/2
Northfield R11........# 2 Illumination-9/2
Northfield R14........# 7 Lock Three-7/2
Scioto R9.............# 2 Stealth Flight-3/1
Scioto R10............# 4 Parlez Best-6/1
Yonkers R1............# 4 Neat-8/5
Yonkers R4............# 2 Wayward Son-9/5
Yonkers R10...........# 2 Archetto Hanover-5/2
Yonkers R12...........# 6 Twin B Tenacious-7/5


Run Size Calcs on Place Betting, 5% Margin of Error
95% confidence level that the ROI is within 0.93 to 1.03 with ave return $2.51
410...Sample Size needed For ROI testing
261...Sample Size needed For Strike Rate testing

So I'll continue this run for another 100 bets

mrroyboy
09-09-2014, 01:02 PM
Thank you Ray. Need all the help I can get

EdZone
09-09-2014, 11:39 PM
Ray, you got a lot of winners today. Nice job.

Ray2000
09-10-2014, 05:41 AM
thx ed and nice call on Hellcat Exacta at Mohawk.....(tough beat on the Pic3)


Yesterday, 2 scratched, ..1 favorite miss placed (pun intended :) )
26 picks from 92 Races
16 went off the Favorite, of those
12 won returning $37.80 (+6)
15 placed returning $36.40 (+4)

8/21/14 To 9/9/14 ---- 344 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 688 663 -25 0.96 205 60%
Place 688 681 -7 0.99 272 79%

Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Balmoral R5...........# 2 Val'S Way-3/1...........Paradise best bet
Balmoral R8...........# 9 Sandcastle Girl-6/1
Batavia R3............# 2 Accrual Girl-5/1
Batavia R4............# 1 A Little Crazy-7/2
Batavia R8............# 1 Tapioca Blues-3/1
Grand River R7........# 4 Silverhill Gertie-2/1
Harrington R2.........# 3 Bosston Bnz-4/1
Harrington R5.........# 4 Limitless-5/2
Harrington R7.........# 4 Credit Blues-3/1
Harrington R9.........# 1 Aiden'S Artist-5/2
Hoosier R1............# 3 Sum It Up-5/2
Hoosier R5............# 4 Lazy Town-5/2
Monticello R5.........# 3 King For A Queen-3/1
Monticello R6.........# 6 Photo Master-5/2
Monticello R10........# 4 Twin B Alibi-3/1
Chester R5............# 2 Great Artist-2/1
Chester R8............# 1 Mcboogie-9/5
Chester R9............# 5 Cracker Zack-7/2
Chester R10...........# 3 Flying Cowboy-2/1
Chester R12...........# 5 Zuppa Inglese-9/5
Chester R13...........# 1 Jarnac-2/1
Chester R14...........# 5 Machin Music-2/1
Plainridge R1.........# 3 Dr Alfonso-9/5
Plainridge R5.........# 5 Iron Train-3/2
Scioto R5.............# 5 Atlas Peak-3/1
Scioto R8.............# 2 He'S The Bomb-3/1
Scioto R10............# 3 Two Friskie-3/1

mrroyboy
09-10-2014, 02:40 PM
Not to keep harping on the subject but you got a horrible drive from Brennan in the 4th at yonkers. This was a matter of too much rather than too little.

Ray2000
09-10-2014, 03:10 PM
Yes roy,
I didn't watch the race but thought the fracts were a little screwy this morning when I was gathering info.
26.3...28.0...28.2...30.0


Guess I'll post this here because I'm singling these 2 bot picks in Pic(x) races tonite...
Sandcastle Girl-6/1 and Tapioca Blues-3/1


Balmoral, very risky Girl in the 8th

$1 Pick 4 (6-7-8-9) (10K Gtd Pool) (15% T/O)

R6 Sexy Card Shark-4/1.........8,5,1
R7 Enchantress Lady - 5/2........2,4
R8 Sandcastle Girl-6/1.............9
R9 Lizzabelle-4/1................6,8

and a cheap 50¢ Pick 5 at Batavia Downs.... CO 1,391 Races 5-9

3,6,1 / 8,1 / 5 / 1 Tapioca Blues / 7,1


Good luck roy et al

mrroyboy
09-10-2014, 05:53 PM
Thank you Ray Good luck to all.

Ray2000
09-11-2014, 05:30 AM
Yesterday, No luck on pic bets
BMLP Pick 4...9/2,4,8,10/1/8.....$227.50
BTV Pick 5....5/8/5/3/3 .........$2,066.00 :faint: on 9.20-7.10-3.40-4.90-7.40....tiny prices :eek:
689? new money + 1391 CO...must have been one 50¢ tkt, took down the whole pool :rolleyes:


Grand River cancelled, Win bets took a hit but Place bets pushed.
27 picks from 82 Races
21 went off the Favorite, of those
6 won returning $21.60 (-20)
15 placed returning $42.40 (0)

8/21/14 To 9/10/14 ---- 365 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 730 685 -45 0.94 211 58%
Place 730 724 -6 0.99 287 79%

Thursday, September 11, 2014
Freehold R5...........# 7 Newsboy Moriarty-7/2
Freehold R6...........# 1 Upfront Cosmo-2/1
Freehold R10..........# 1 What A Jolt-3/1
Flamboro R4...........# 3 Silverhill Lucky-6/5
Harrington R10........# 4 Courser Hanover-2/1
Harrington R12........# 4 Gators Ben Winning-2/1
Mohawk R6.............# 2 Utopia-4/1
Monticello R1.........# 1 Flower Girl Charis-3/1
Monticello R3.........# 4 Mr Tommy Fra-5/2
Monticello R4.........# 5 Theron Seelster-3/1
Monticello R5.........# 2 Spectacular Man-3/1
Monticello R7.........# 1 Runaway Fire A-3/1
Monticello R8.........# 2 City Kid-3/1
Northfield R5.........# 5 Lady Rev-5/2
Northfield R8.........# 4 Real Serene-2/1
Northfield R10........# 1 D J Supreme-4/1
Northfield R11........# 3 Pinefullofboots-2/1
Chester R1............# 4 Stan The Man-3/1
Chester R4............# 4 Mortal Combat-5/2
Chester R5............# 5 Chez Mahmo-2/1
Chester R6............# 2 Appomattox-3/1
Chester R8............# 3 Willy Mucha-5/2
Chester R9............# 1 Gliding Boy-5/2
Chester R12...........# 5 My Love Bi-3/1
Rideau R4.............# 2 Noble Shadow-2/1
Rideau R6.............# 1 Trinity Justin-3/1
Scioto R2.............# 5 Mack Straight-4/1
Scioto R3.............# 2 Ajuama-3/1
Scioto R4.............# 2 Virgil-3/1
Scioto R10............# 10 Lucky Virgin-3/1
Scioto R11............# 5 Patsys Luck-6/1
Scioto R12............# 1 Beauregret-3/1
Saratoga R3...........# 3 Nautilus De Vie-9/5
Saratoga R7...........# 2 I'M A Pop Star-7/5
Saratoga R11..........# 2 Howe'S Magic-5/2

Sample size is a bit small but shows Win betting beats PLace for non-Fave Picks

8/21/14 To 9/10/14 ---- 117 Picks [not Favorite]
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 234 262 28 1.12 38 32%
Place 234 231 -3 0.99 66 56%

traynor
09-11-2014, 11:30 AM
Have you considered layering your data by odds, rather than by favorite/non-favorite? Or--even better--by both?

The win rate and return is substantially different for favorites that go off at less than even money, and favorites that go off at or above even money. Same is true for all horses as a group.

Your research may be producing some very useful data that you may not be considering.

Ray2000
09-11-2014, 12:42 PM
Have you considered layering your data by odds, rather than by favorite/non-favorite? ....

Yes, I have the chart lines, final Tote Odds, for all the Picks in this run and I'll do that at run's end.
I need enough races so that the 2 or 3 odds groupings will have enough data points in each segment.

I remember you posting a few months ago about finding value in low priced horses. ...... Looks real so far.... :)

Ray2000
09-12-2014, 05:52 AM
Yesterday
35 picks from 132 Races
26 went off the Favorite, of those
10 won returning $39.20 (-13)
19 placed returning $49.50 (-2)

8/21/14 To 9/11/14 ---- 391 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 782 724 -58 0.93 221 57%
Place 782 773 -9 0.99 306 78%

bot zeroing in on the half-milers, "knows" where to go for high strike rates...:)
Friday, September 12, 2014
Batavia R1............# 4 Vintage Fenom-5/2
Batavia R2............# 2 The Bronx Bumper-3/1
Batavia R10...........# 1 Milliondollardad-7/2
Freehold R4...........# 3 Wind River Cat-3/1
Freehold R9...........# 1 Special Command-6/5
Freehold R10..........# 1 Belgravia-6/5
Freehold R11..........# 4 Golden Fizz-2/1
Hoosier R4............# 4 Unefoisdansmavie-5/2
Maywood R4............# 5 R Duneshine-8/5
Maywood R5............# 3 Majestic Royale-3/1
Meadows R12...........# 5 Americangeneration-5/2
Mohawk R5.............# 4 Lady Dynamite-3/1
Mohawk R9.............# 1 Sheer Flex-9/2
Northfield R3.........# 2 Band'S Superstar-7/2
Northfield R9.........# 5 Stacked Deck-3/1
Northfield R12........# 5 Mcmerry Again-7/2
Northfield R13........# 1 Pink Knees-2/1
Chester R3............# 4 Secluded Beach-5/2
Chester R8............# 5 Tell Rosie-5/2
Chester R11...........# 4 Hunger Games-8/5
Chester R13...........# 5 Perfect Tententen-8/5
Saratoga R1...........# 2 Bit O Victory-5/2
Saratoga R8...........# 1 Lucid Thoughts-5/2

Ray2000
09-13-2014, 04:50 AM
Yesterday
23 picks from 125 Races
20 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $36.50 (-4)
14 placed returning $39.50 (0)

8/21/14 To 9/12/14 ---- 411 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 822 760 -62 0.92 230 56%
Place 822 813 -9 0.99 320 78%

Saturday, September 13, 2014
Batavia R2............# 1 Future Life-8/5
Batavia R3............# 1 Cactus Jack-2/1
Batavia R8............# 1 Loose Talk-2/1
Batavia R11...........# 1 Unicorn Hanover-2/1
Freehold R2...........# 1 Honeys Dragon-8/5
Freehold R4...........# 4 Hrubys N Luck-7/2
Freehold R5...........# 4 Andwin Hanover-5/2
Freehold R6...........# 3 C'Mon Buzz Off-2/1
Freehold R7...........# 3 Miss Annie J-2/1
Freehold R9...........# 1 Big Red-7/2
Freehold R11..........# 3 Northern Ideal-3/1
Freehold R12..........# 2 All Determined-5/1
Flamboro R7...........# 1 Dostal Alley-7/5
Hoosier R5............# 5 Real Winner-7/2
Hoosier R6............# 5 Crocadile Canyon-7/2
Hoosier R12...........# 5 Jammin Joshua-5/2
Hoosier R14...........# 6 Flak Jacket-4/1
Mohawk R10............# 5 Yagonnakissmeornot-5/1
Plainridge R4.........# 3 Famous Image-6/5
Plainridge R8.........# 5 Painting The Town-8/5
Scioto R5.............# 5 Ardyne Ace-7/2
Scioto R8.............# 3 P L Dragon-3/1
Saratoga R2...........# 2 Good Win Earl-5/2
Saratoga R6...........# 5 Armbro David-4/1
Tioga R10.............# 4 One Last Roadie-2/1

traynor
09-13-2014, 09:07 PM
Yes, I have the chart lines, final Tote Odds, for all the Picks in this run and I'll do that at run's end.
I need enough races so that the 2 or 3 odds groupings will have enough data points in each segment.

I remember you posting a few months ago about finding value in low priced horses. ...... Looks real so far.... :)


You are definitely headed in the right direction. This is from the current model for Monticello:

In 684 COMBINED Pace races 8 9 22 Won 0.73% of 60 ROI 1.36 0.00 2
In 716 COMBINED Pace races 12 9 22 Won 0.71% of 66 ROI 1.30 0.00 3
In 506 COMBINED Pace races 22 9 12 Won 0.72% of 74 ROI 1.36 0.00 3
In 506 COMBINED Pace races 22 9 13 Won 0.72% of 67 ROI 1.32 0.00 2
In 518 COMBINED Pace races 25 9 22 Won 0.72% of 79 ROI 1.34 0.00 3

ALL are for odds less than 3/1. The win% is the top ranked entry to win. Place position is calculated in another model. The last digit is the maximum number of consecutive losses over the sample modeled.

Ray2000
09-14-2014, 05:50 AM
traynor
interesting numbers, (gotta like that ROI:)).
I'm not used to your format, Could you explain in more detail? 8-9-22?, 5 rows?
...just woke up, brain's not working yet....



Yesterday, another push
25 picks from 103 Races, 1 scratch
17 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $33.90 (0)
12 placed returning $31.80 (-2)

8/21/14 To 9/13/14 ---- 428 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 856 794 -62 0.93 239 56%
Place 856 844 -12 0.99 332 78%

Sunday, September 14, 2014
Balmoral R7...........# 3 Love This Place-3/1
Balmoral R9...........# 7 Sea Watcher-3/1
Balmoral R10..........# 5 Native Lights-3/1
Flamboro R10..........# 5 Kendal Delilah-2/1
Chester R3............# 1 Marion Monaco-8/5
Chester R4............# 3 Della Cruise-2/1
Chester R5............# 2 Shark Dressed Man-3/1
Chester R6............# 6 National Debt-7/2
Plainridge R2.........# 2 Daughtry Hanover-5/2
Plainridge R4.........# 2 Haverford Hanover-8/5
Rideau R5.............# 1 Trade Editor-2/1
Rideau R11............# 3 My Lucky Bluejeans-3/1
Saratoga R6...........# 5 Brussel Sprout-5/2
Saratoga R10..........# 1 Born To Fight-5/2
Saratoga R13..........# 1 Eve Ning Out-7/2

traynor
09-14-2014, 10:26 AM
"8 9 22" is an arbitrary designation of a particular pattern, generated by a data mining app. Because it doesn't use what would normally be considered "factors" the output looks weird. By leaving it as a numeric designation rather than trying to translate it into words, it reduces the tendency to second-guess the output.

It is best thought of as a regression "best fit" from a machine learning process. Lots of trendy terms favored by those attempting to dazzle with their "expertise" but really no more complex than running a big chunk of races through an app like Weka or RapidMiner. Both have free downloads, both have readily accessible tutorials on YouTube. The use of either one can create a solid advantage in betting for anyone willing to do a bit of work.

Anyone who believes it takes it takes a crew of quants and a half million dollar bankroll to replicate whale apps is still living in the dark ages.

EdZone
09-14-2014, 10:34 AM
Ray, I go with your Rideau for tri, super, & double.

R5 1/2376/2376/2376

R11 3/2/567

R11 3/567/2

R11 DD 3/237

Ray2000
09-15-2014, 05:19 AM
Sorry ed, 'close but no cigar' on those either



Yesterday ...Win return/Place return..dead heat
15 picks from 53 Races
13 went off the Favorite, of those
7 won returning $25.70 (0)
10 placed returning $25.70 (0)

8/21/14 To 9/14/14 ---- 441 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 882 820 -62 0.93 246 56%
Place 882 870 -12 0.99 342 78%

Monday, September 15, 2014
Grand River R6........# 3 Jayport Sunrise-8/5
Grand River R10.......# 2 Warrawee Phoenix-9/2
Harrington R1.........# 1 Pierce-2/1
Harrington R2.........# 1 Tauranga-5/2
Harrington R3.........# 2 Aled Hanover-3/1
Harrington R4.........# 2 Shark Fantasy-5/2
Harrington R5.........# 3 Invictus Hanover-5/2
Harrington R7.........# 1 J C Onthebeach-5/2
Harrington R11........# 1 Drunken Terror-5/2
Harrington R12........# 3 Swift As A Shadow-3/1
Meadows R6............# 2 Jackson Brady-3/1
Meadows R15...........# 5 Blazing Blaire-2/1
Mohawk R11............# 7 Tea Party Patriot-3/1
Monticello R2.........# 1 Keystone Isabella-9/5
Monticello R5.........# 2 Carrie Ann-5/2
Monticello R6.........# 2 Big Z Miranda-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 4 Shortest Distance-5/2
Monticello R9.........# 4 Burlesque-6/5
Monticello R10........# 4 Dc'S Piggy Bank-7/2
Northfield R1.........# 1 Heres Hooter-2/1
Northfield R3.........# 1 The Machster-4/1
Northfield R5.........# 5 Cabo-5/2
Northfield R6.........# 2 Craig Michael-3/1
Yonkers R2............# 4 Mister Anson-2/1

mrroyboy
09-15-2014, 01:51 PM
Love Shark Fantasy at Har today. Probably means 3-5

Ray2000
09-15-2014, 02:00 PM
Yes roy, Shark is also the Morning Line Pick, that hurts.
Run data is starting to show :

Posted Pick was also morning line pick
8/21/14 To 9/14/14 ---- 353 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win $706 $658.90 ($47) 0.93 207 59%
Place $706 $680.10 ($26) 0.96 275 78%

Pick was not the morning line pick
[code]
8/21/14 To 9/14/14 ---- 88 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win $176 $160.90 ($15) 0.91 39 44%
Place $176 $190.00 $14 1.08 67 76%


.....Need more races, 88 is too few

mrroyboy
09-15-2014, 05:11 PM
Ray it's 20 minutes to post at Harrington.Your 1-1 daily double is paying $2. unreal
Meanwhile the 8 horse in the first is getting all kinds of money in the exactas. May be very live.

Ray2000
09-15-2014, 05:39 PM
Har 1 ......PU

wasn't my 6 grand....

mrroyboy
09-15-2014, 05:40 PM
All I can is UNREAL

lamboguy
09-15-2014, 06:29 PM
the gate punchers at Harrington have made 3 out of the first 4 races 1/9 after the horses got the lead. they are not the type that pay 2.20, they pay 2.10. by the time this card is done they might have a few more go off the minimum price. that might break the all time record if they haven't already.

i just wonder what good these gate punchers are doing for the Delaware harness track for the future of that game?

Ray2000
09-16-2014, 05:00 AM
......

i just wonder what good these gate punchers are doing for the Delaware harness track for the future of that game?

I don't see any disadvantage in closing the tote when the starter calls for the horses. They need to stop these crooks from betting after the bell. :mad:


Results:

Yesterday, a $4.60 place price on Swift As A Shadow at Harrington saved the day.
23 picks from 75 Races
19 went off the Favorite, of those
12 won returning $35.30 (-3)
15 placed returning $39.00 (+1)

8/21/14 To 9/15/14 ---- 460 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 920 855 -65 0.93 258 56%
Place 920 909 -11 0.99 357 78%

Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Batavia R7............# 1 Joltfromtheblue-3/1
Batavia R8............# 1 Allmyrowdyfriends-5/2
Harrington R1.........# 3 Putnams Kream-5/2
Harrington R2.........# 4 Cinamony-5/2
Harrington R7.........# 4 Damsel In A Dress-3/1
Harrington R11........# 3 Bad Night Mare-2/1
Harrington R13........# 4 Lookout Stokk Zone-5/2
Mohawk R5.............# 5 Keystone Trevor-5/2
Monticello R2.........# 4 Print It-5/2
Monticello R3.........# 2 Mixed Media-5/2
Monticello R4.........# 4 Larissa-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 2 Kennanskingwilliam-9/5
Monticello R9.........# 1 Theron Seelster-5/2
Northfield R1.........# 1 Vodkainduceddreams-5/2
Northfield R3.........# 6 Cashontherocs-5/2
Northfield R7.........# 2 Maximum Viking-2/1
Northfield R12........# 5 Tarport Belle-5/2
Northfield R14........# 4 Allamerican Comet-5/2
Northfield R15........# 8 Jenna'S Dream-4/1
Pocono R9.............# 5 Happily Ever After-5/2
Yonkers R7............# 1 Play The Field-8/5
Yonkers R9............# 2 Neat-8/5

Ray2000
09-17-2014, 06:04 AM
Yesterday, + for Wins, neg for Place...1 scratch - Play The Field at Yonkers
22 picks from 107 Races
19 went off the Favorite, of those
14 won returning $48.10 (+10)
15 placed returning $36.50 (-1)

8/21/14 To 9/16/14 ---- 479 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 958 903 -55 0.94 272 57%
Place 958 946 -12 0.99 372 78%

Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Balmoral R6...........# 1 Winspirational-4/1
Balmoral R7...........# 2 Meet Me Tonight-3/1
Balmoral R8...........# 10 Benns Score Keeper-4/1
Balmoral R9...........# 4 Look Ma No Hands-3/1
Batavia R1............# 1 First Of Fun-3/1
Batavia R3............# 1 Anais Kicker-5/2
Batavia R6............# 1 Glowing Fashion-3/1
Batavia R9............# 1 Western-3/1
Grand River R4........# 2 Shhh Its A Secret-8/5
Harrington R1.........# 1 Bosston Bnz-2/1
Harrington R6.........# 4 Powerful Charger-3/1
Harrington R11........# 2 Charliesandjimmys-2/1
Harrington R13........# 4 Exotic Mattjesty-5/2
Meadows R8............# 5 Icy Chisel-3/1
Monticello R3.........# 4 Shark Income-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 1 King For A Queen-5/2
Pocono R9.............# 8 Dd'S Hitman-5/2
Pocono R11............# 4 Mcboogie-7/2
Chester R1............# 8 Yagot Class-8/5
Chester R2............# 2 Shark Ingested-8/5
Chester R3............# 3 No Gin-7/2
Chester R6............# 5 Royal Engagement-4/1
Chester R8............# 3 Mcever-2/1
Chester R9............# 5 Maytime Terror-5/2
Chester R14...........# 2 Tim Lizzie-6/1
Plainridge R6.........# 1 A Megabuck-3/2
Plainridge R10........# 5 Gratias Deo-5/2

Ray2000
09-18-2014, 06:26 AM
Yesterday,
2 wins at Chester Mcever 6.80 and A Megabuck 11.20
and a 5$ place price on First Of Fun at Batavia (missed being the fave by 3$ in pool)
were not counted

27 picks from 96 Races
18 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $30.40 (-6)
15 placed returning $41.20 (+5)

8/21/14 To 9/17/14 ---- 497 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 994 934 -60 0.94 281 57%
Place 994 987 -7 0.99 387 78%

Thursday, September 18, 2014
Freehold R2...........# 1 Classy Character-3/1
Freehold R4...........# 1 Elle'S Boy-7/5
Freehold R5...........# 1 Civic Duty-2/1
Freehold R8...........# 1 Meat Loaf-3/2
Freehold R9...........# 1 Forbettor Or Worse-2/1
Flamboro R3...........# 1 Watch Her Dangle-7/5
Flamboro R8...........# 3 Bali-4/1
Fraser R6.............# 5 Cheyenne J-2/1
Harrington R14........# 4 Seaside Gal-4/1
Maywood R3............# 1 Fancy Too-8/1
Mohawk R3.............# 1 Miss Machqueen-7/2
Mohawk R5.............# 7 Cuda Sixty Six-7/1
Mohawk R7.............# 8 Mr Lindy-9/5
Monticello R10........# 1 Mr Tommy Fra-5/2
Chester R1............# 3 Lex Lugar-9/5
Chester R5............# 2 Tomy Terror-8/5
Chester R9............# 2 Money On My Mind-2/1
Saratoga R4...........# 6 Classic Belisima-5/2
Saratoga R7...........# 1 Kid Pk-8/5
Saratoga R12..........# 1 Julia'S Way-5/2

2 Notes

1. ROIs for Place Bets
0.97 for faves going off at less than 3/5
1.00 for faves going off at greater than 3/5
(1.08 for greater than even money)

3/5 seems to be the tipping point for place betting faves, but still need larger sample

2. (MathPad site)
Student TTest on average ROIs, Win vs Place
The two-tailed P value equals 0.1333
By conventional criteria, this difference is considered to be not statistically significant.

mrroyboy
09-18-2014, 01:56 PM
Plus ROI for fav over 1-1? That's incredible Ray!!!

Ray2000
09-19-2014, 05:46 AM
Yesterday, 100% Strike for Place bets on 16 race favorites
What a hellava Parlay that would have been... :faint: .
20 picks from 107 Races
16 went off the Favorite, of those
13 won returning $41.50 (+10)
16 placed returning $39.60 (+8)

8/21/14 To 9/18/14 ---- 513 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1026 975.10 -51 0.95 294 57%
Place 1026 1026.40 -- 1.00 403 79%
40¢ profit on a thousand bet :rolleyes: , should stop now but will continue to
reach 600 race favorites, then sum up.

Friday, September 19, 2014
Batavia R10...........# 1 Dontgetinskyway-5/1
Freehold R4...........# 1 Campanile Hanover-7/5
Freehold R10..........# 2 Yummy Sushi-3/2
Fraser R7.............# 1 Prime Time Bliss-3/1
Fraser R10............# 3 Burn The Floor-2/1
Fraser R13............# 3 Hector Protector-3/1
Hoosier R10...........# 5 Montenegro-5/2
Hoosier R13...........# 2 Total Lee-1/1
Maywood R3............# 2 Yanklet Hanover-8/5
Northfield R3.........# 1 Lima Lucky-3/1
Northfield R6.........# 5 Im Shameless-5/2
Northfield R7.........# 2 Connie'S Marti-4/1
Northfield R15........# 4 R E O Speeddragon-3/1
Chester R1............# 4 Casanova Lindy-9/5
Saratoga R5...........# 4 Martha Michelle-5/2
Saratoga R9...........# 8 Golden Stroke-4/1
Saratoga R12..........# 3 Ipo Blue Chip-7/5
Vernon R12............# 8 Daley Lovin-5/2
Yonkers R11...........# 2 Fort Valley As-8/5

lamboguy
09-19-2014, 07:29 AM
over the internet everyone wins, but what you have done in the real world is pretty strong.

DeltaLover
09-19-2014, 08:32 AM
Yesterday, 100% Strike for Place bets on 16 race favorites
What a hellava Parlay that would have been... :faint: .
20 picks from 107 Races
16 went off the Favorite, of those
13 won returning $41.50 (+10)
16 placed returning $39.60 (+8)

8/21/14 To 9/18/14 ---- 513 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1026 975.10 -51 0.95 294 57%
Place 1026 1026.40 -- 1.00 403 79%
40¢ profit on a thousand bet :rolleyes: , should stop now but will continue to
reach 600 race favorites, then sum up.

Friday, September 19, 2014
Batavia R10...........# 1 Dontgetinskyway-5/1
Freehold R4...........# 1 Campanile Hanover-7/5
Freehold R10..........# 2 Yummy Sushi-3/2
Fraser R7.............# 1 Prime Time Bliss-3/1
Fraser R10............# 3 Burn The Floor-2/1
Fraser R13............# 3 Hector Protector-3/1
Hoosier R10...........# 5 Montenegro-5/2
Hoosier R13...........# 2 Total Lee-1/1
Maywood R3............# 2 Yanklet Hanover-8/5
Northfield R3.........# 1 Lima Lucky-3/1
Northfield R6.........# 5 Im Shameless-5/2
Northfield R7.........# 2 Connie'S Marti-4/1
Northfield R15........# 4 R E O Speeddragon-3/1
Chester R1............# 4 Casanova Lindy-9/5
Saratoga R5...........# 4 Martha Michelle-5/2
Saratoga R9...........# 8 Golden Stroke-4/1
Saratoga R12..........# 3 Ipo Blue Chip-7/5
Vernon R12............# 8 Daley Lovin-5/2
Yonkers R11...........# 2 Fort Valley As-8/5


Excellent job, not only for the great bottom line, but for your consistency, accuracy and hard work:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

mrroyboy
09-19-2014, 01:30 PM
Agree agree agree.

Ray2000
09-19-2014, 02:41 PM
Thx Delta, Lambo, MrRoy

I probably have came out against betting Favorites or Place Bets in the past (even with using Dr Z's method) :confused:

But there's always something new to learn in this game.... ;)


...Now working on how to use this info

I've been pondering over using 'Hi Place Chance' Picks as a hedge against longshot exotic plays... :confused:

Ray2000
09-20-2014, 04:57 AM
Yesterday, Connie'S Marti won 6.20 3.60, was co-favorite. not counted
19 picks from 116 Races
15 went off the Favorite, of those
11 won returning $33.90 (+4)
13 placed returning $32.30 (+2)

8/21/14 To 9/19/14 ---- 528 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1056 1009 -47 0.96 305 58%
Place 1056 1059 3 1.00 416 79%

Saturday, September 20, 2014
Balmoral R6...........# 6 Rock Hollywood-6/1
Balmoral R12..........# 9 Kesons Allure-6/1
Batavia R1............# 2 Shaolin Master-9/2
Batavia R4............# 1 Baccarat Stena-5/2
Freehold R1...........# 2 Showtime Shark-9/2
Freehold R6...........# 2 Willie Boots-5/2
Freehold R7...........# 1 Hrubys N Luck-7/2
Freehold R8...........# 5 The Lunch Pail-2/1
Freehold R9...........# 2 Fastlaneluke-2/1
Freehold R11..........# 2 The Price You Pay-7/2
Hoosier R7............# 5 Night Pro-2/1
Hoosier R14...........# 3 Allthatgltrsisgold-7/2
Plainridge R3.........# 4 Happy Surprise-6/5
Plainridge R5.........# 1 Murphy'S Ideal-3/2
Plainridge R6.........# 4 Famous Image-8/5
Scioto R9.............# 5 Dj Lance-3/1
Saratoga R1...........# 1 Subliminal Hanover-2/1
Vernon R8.............# 5 Tirade Hanover-5/2

Ray2000
09-21-2014, 05:09 AM
Yesterday,
18 picks from 109 Races
13 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $32.00 (+6)
10 placed returning $26.90 (+1)

8/21/14 To 9/20/14 ---- 541 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1082 1041 -41 0.96 314 58%
Place 1082 1086 4 1.00 426 79%

Sunday, September 21, 2014
Balmoral R5...........# 1 Mac Kemp-5/1
Balmoral R7...........# 4 Seconds Later-2/1
Balmoral R9...........# 7 Lady Laker-7/2
Flamboro R3...........# 4 Sweetie Hearts-2/1
Flamboro R6...........# 5 P L Adder-4/1
Chester R1............# 6 Macs Bad Boy-3/1
Chester R3............# 1 Marathon Man-2/1
Chester R7............# 5 Douknowwhereurgoin-7/2
Chester R9............# 5 Machin Music-3/1
Chester R10...........# 4 National Debt-5/2
Plainridge R5.........# 3 Forced Passage-6/5
Plainridge R6.........# 4 Yanother Round-3/1
Rideau R11............# 2 Mikesbrotherfrank-2/1
Saratoga R2...........# 1 Call Me Hal-9/2
Saratoga R5...........# 1 Newport Volo-5/2
Saratoga R8...........# 5 It'S A Miracle-3/1
Saratoga R10..........# 7 Cooking The Books-3/1
Saratoga R11..........# 2 Shawnee Dancer-5/2

Ray2000
09-22-2014, 05:14 AM
Yesterday, Bad day for Picks, but only 10 were favorites.
18 picks from 58 Races
10 went off the Favorite, of those
3 won returning $9.20 (-11)
7 placed returning $17.30 (-3)

8/21/14 To 9/21/14 ---- 551 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1102 1050 -52 0.95 317 58%
Place 1102 1103 1 1.00 433 79%

Monday, September 22, 2014
Harrington R1.........# 2 Tauranga-5/2
Harrington R2.........# 3 Shark Fantasy-5/2
Harrington R3.........# 1 Aled Hanover-2/1
Harrington R4.........# 5 Invictus Hanover-3/1
Harrington R5.........# 8 Handsome Henry K-5/1
Harrington R7.........# 4 Dina'S Gamble-7/5
Harrington R10........# 4 Red Hot Native-2/1
Meadows R16...........# 1 Outsourced Hanover-9/5
Monticello R1.........# 3 Benn'S Starlet-3/1
Monticello R4.........# 3 Carbon Footprint-5/2
Monticello R5.........# 4 Shelikesitherway-5/2
Monticello R6.........# 1 Garbarino-4/1
Monticello R8.........# 4 Dc'S Piggy Bank-5/2
Monticello R9.........# 3 Machs Little Filly-5/2
Monticello R10........# 3 Big Z Miranda-5/2
Northfield R4.........# 1 Hallin-2/1
Northfield R5.........# 3 Gem Heist-2/1
Northfield R9.........# 2 Mary'S Darvin-5/2
Northfield R11........# 5 True To Mach-5/2
Yonkers R12...........# 4 Silouette-2/1

Ray2000
09-23-2014, 05:47 AM
Yesterday, All but 1 was Fave
20 picks from 74 Races
19 went off the Favorite, of those
12 won returning $45.70 (+8)
17 placed returning $44.30 (+6)

8/21/14 To 9/22/14 ---- 570 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1140 1096 -44 0.96 329 58%
Place 1140 1147 7 1.01 450 79%

Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Harrington R2.........# 4 Paradise Lost-2/1
Harrington R4.........# 4 Jeremes Sweetheart-4/1
Harrington R8.........# 7 I'M Won Rum Wiser-5/2
Harrington R9.........# 4 Terra Terror-3/1
Harrington R10........# 5 Jonigold-2/1
Harrington R12........# 3 Putnams Kream-5/2
Hoosier R14...........# 4 Hall Pass Helen-5/2
Monticello R2.........# 4 Multiple Choice-5/2
Monticello R4.........# 5 Lil Miss Nyalation-3/1
Monticello R5.........# 2 Golden Time-5/2
Monticello R6.........# 5 Real Attitude-7/2
Monticello R8.........# 5 One Shark Road-5/2
Monticello R9.........# 5 Grace N Charlie-5/2
Northfield R2.........# 2 Auto Pilot-2/1
Northfield R3.........# 2 Instant Glide-4/1
Northfield R6.........# 1 First After Me-7/2
Northfield R11........# 1 Igottaguyforthat-3/1
Northfield R14........# 6 Vodkainduceddreams-7/5
Pocono R10............# 1 Easter Surprize-5/2
Yonkers R5............# 1 Ima Que T-4/5
Yonkers R8............# 3 Twin B Speedo-9/5
Yonkers R10...........# 1 River Run For Ryan-9/5

Ray2000
09-24-2014, 05:35 AM
Yesterday,
22 picks from 101 Races, 2 scratched
17 went off the Favorite, of those
6 won returning $22.60 (-11)
13 placed returning $30.70 (-3)

8/21/14 To 9/23/14 ---- 587 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1174 1119 -55 0.95 337 57%
Place 1174 1178 4 1.00 463 79%

Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Balmoral R8...........# 6 Benns Score Keeper-5/2
Batavia R3............# 4 Powerful Love-2/1
Grand River R8........# 1 Strong Alibi-5/2
Harrington R6.........# 1 Cash On Delivery-3/1
Harrington R8.........# 2 Jesse'S Dakota-5/1
Harrington R9.........# 1 Charliesandjimmys-3/1
Harrington R13........# 5 Von Ryan'S Express-5/2
Meadows R12...........# 5 Americangeneration-5/2
Monticello R3.........# 3 Larissa-5/2
Monticello R6.........# 4 Twin B Alibi-5/2
Monticello R7.........# 1 Dutch Richman-5/2
Pocono R5.............# 6 Nottin To Much-4/1
Pocono R6.............# 3 Mcboogie-5/2
Pocono R14............# 8 Another Depostion-3/1
Chester R1............# 4 Delaware Hanover-8/5
Chester R3............# 5 Summer Smackdown-3/1
Chester R6............# 4 Kayla'S Dream-4/1
Chester R10...........# 5 Ethan Hanover-2/1
Chester R13...........# 3 Changed It All-4/1
Chester R14...........# 5 Cereal Lover-3/1
Plainridge R2.........# 1 Wind Swept-2/1
Plainridge R4.........# 2 Jo Pa'S Wish-5/1
Plainridge R6.........# 2 Famous Image-5/2
Plainridge R8.........# 3 Lindyaholic-5/2
Scioto R11............# 5 Blanca Raya-4/1

Ray2000
09-25-2014, 05:07 AM
Yesterday,
25 picks from 99 Races, 1 scratched..... Stange losing day
2/5 getting beat and paying 4.40 to Place? (Blanca Raya at SCD)
18 went off the Favorite, of those
9 won returning $33.70 (-2)
10 placed returning $27.60 (-8)

8/21/14 To 9/24/14 ---- 605 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1210 1152 -58 0.95 346 57%
Place 1210 1206 -4 1.00 473 78%

Thursday, September 25, 2014 ,,,,A ton of Chalk today, Test run ends Saturday
Freehold R2...........# 1 Real Mystical-5/2
Freehold R5...........# 1 Our Special Girl-2/1
Freehold R7...........# 1 Gimmesomeroom-3/1
Freehold R10..........# 3 Born That Way-2/1
Flamboro R11..........# 3 Bali-7/5
Fraser R10............# 1 Zeballos-2/1
Fraser R11............# 6 Red Star Katrina-2/1
Harrington R4.........# 4 Whirl The Girl-4/1
Harrington R7.........# 5 Willow Mill Faith-2/1
Harrington R9.........# 3 Northwesterndreams-2/1
Hoosier R1............# 5 My Hope-5/2
Maywood R4............# 1 Outspoken-5/2
Maywood R9............# 1 Zumba-3/1
Monticello R2.........# 1 Diamond Dan N-5/2
Monticello R5.........# 1 Shes On Fire-4/1
Monticello R6.........# 5 American Champ-7/2
Monticello R7.........# 4 Hst Kruzer-5/2
Monticello R12........# 5 Card Machine-3/1
Northfield R1.........# 5 High Stakes Banker-5/2
Northfield R7.........# 3 Dr Jacks Shack-4/1
Northfield R11........# 1 Major Speed-3/1
Northfield R12........# 7 Berlin Hall-3/1
Chester R1............# 5 Broadway Prince-5/2
Chester R4............# 2 My Love Bi-8/5
Chester R5............# 5 Quinnman-7/2
Chester R6............# 6 Rosslyn Chapel-8/5
Chester R9............# 4 Walltocousins-5/2
Chester R11...........# 4 Tiger'S Too Good-5/2
Chester R13...........# 5 Dejatiero-3/1
Scioto R3.............# 2 Positively Perfect-3/1
Scioto R6.............# 6 Full Code-3/1
Scioto R11............# 4 Lucky Virgin-3/1
Saratoga R7...........# 1 Kid Pk-6/5
Saratoga R10..........# 4 Missing Wink-3/1
Saratoga R11..........# 1 Dingle Bay-6/5
Saratoga R12..........# 3 Gasoline Alley-5/2
Yonkers R2............# 5 Cocotier-9/5

mrroyboy
09-25-2014, 12:56 PM
I have to check but I think Cocitier last race was very good.

Ray2000
09-26-2014, 05:46 AM
Yesterday, Bombs hurt a lot on Place bets
37 picks from 133 Races, 2 scratched
27 went off the Favorite, of those
14 won returning $49.90 (-4)
16 placed returning $40.40 (-14)

8/21/14 To 9/25/14 ---- 632 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1264 1202 -62 0.95 360 57%
Place 1264 1246 -18 0.99 489 77%

Friday, September 26, 2014
Freehold R4...........# 2 Fancy Pants Sandy-2/1
Freehold R7...........# 6 Lil Miss Snowflake-7/2
Freehold R8...........# 4 Play Fair-2/1
Freehold R10..........# 5 Campanile Hanover-5/2
Freehold R11..........# 2 I Luv It-5/2
Fraser R4.............# 2 Makeing The Mark-2/1
Fraser R5.............# 2 One Last Shot-7/2
Fraser R6.............# 1 National Interest-3/1
Hoosier R13...........# 5 Hoponit-4/1
Meadows R6............# 4 Southwind Glider-3/1
Meadows R16...........# 5 Dress The Part-5/2
Mohawk R1.............# 5 Indian Lake-7/2
Mohawk R11............# 5 Noble Jilly-3/1
Northfield R4.........# 4 Threefold Breanna-5/2
Northfield R6.........# 9 Ee Bay-9/2
Northfield R12........# 4 Satin Slayer-3/1
Chester R1............# 4 Four Starz Speed-9/5
Chester R4............# 5 Cinderosa-5/2
Chester R12...........# 3 Ellie'S Best Dream-5/1
Chester R13...........# 5 Dream'S Bar-7/2
Chester R14...........# 1 Brdways Perfection-8/5
Scioto R5.............# 10 Quick N' Slick-3/1
Saratoga R1...........# 4 Jesse Say More-3/1
Saratoga R9...........# 1 Zorgwijk Nova-5/2
Saratoga R12..........# 1 Mean Girls-5/2
Yonkers R11...........# 4 Frau Blucher-8/5

Ray2000
09-27-2014, 06:25 AM
Yesterday,
26 picks from 133 Races, 1 scratched
20 went off the Favorite, of those
11 won returning $41.70 (+2)
16 placed returning $42.20 (+2)

8/21/14 To 9/26/14 ---- 652 Favorites
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1304 1244 -60 0.95 371 57%
Place 1304 1288 -16 0.99 505 77%

Saturday, September 27, 2014
Balmoral R2...........# 6 Sea Watcher-6/1
Balmoral R3...........# 5 Timewell-5/2
Balmoral R7...........# 1 Meadowbrook Samson-3/1
Balmoral R10..........# 2 Furious Frank-7/2
Balmoral R11..........# 6 Ice Scraper-3/1
Balmoral R12..........# 10 Kingofthejungle-3/1
Batavia R8............# 1 Power Off-5/2
Batavia R10...........# 4 Legal Process-5/2
Batavia R12...........# 3 Whipmeintoshape-5/2
Freehold R1...........# 1 Pass The Deck-5/1
Freehold R3...........# 5 Freddy Day Hanover-2/1
Freehold R6...........# 1 Whataorse-2/1
Freehold R8...........# 2 Leg Up-2/1
Freehold R10..........# 4 Jump The Shark-4/1
Freehold R11..........# 1 A Bettor World-2/1
Flamboro R6...........# 3 Windsun Callum-1/1
Scioto R14............# 5 Easy Again-2/1
Scioto R15............# 5 Continual Velocity-4/1
Saratoga R3...........# 1 Big Bambu-6/5
Saratoga R8...........# 4 Its A Good Thing-4/1

This is the last day of this test run.

I'll put up the summaries later, for now it appears

1. Place betting on Favorites does do better than Win Betting, as the chart in the first post showed.

2. You can make money Place betting with the right choice of Favorites and a good rebate supplier.

Ray2000
09-30-2014, 09:12 AM
This run looked at 3660 races, selected 868 Horses to Bet for Win and Place (24% plays)

8/21/14 To 9/27/14
---- 668 went off the Favorite
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1336 1280 -56 0.96 381 57%
Place 1336 1319 -17 0.99 516 77%

---- 200 were NOT the Favorite
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 400 444 44 1.11 62 31%
Place 400 372 -28 0.93 105 53%

By Track (All picks Fave or not)
Selects Win Roi Place Roi
ACES 3 0.87 0.40
BMLP 29 0.61 0.82
BTVA 58 1.45 1.18
CHST 125 1.02 0.99
FHLD 75 1.01 1.03
FLMD 14 0.98 0.86
FRD 9 0.80 1.18
GRVR 10 1.02 1.04
HAR 84 1.02 1.03
HOP 24 1.08 0.94
MAY 12 0.60 0.74
MEA 25 1.08 0.92
MOH 25 0.94 0.80
MR 80 0.90 0.89
NFLD 76 0.94 0.88
PCD 22 1.03 0.90
PRC 34 1.06 1.05
RIDC 12 0.73 0.74
SCD 53 0.62 0.77
STGA 56 0.87 0.95
TGDN 19 0.68 0.83
VD 7 0.94 1.01
YR 38 1.13 0.98
868 0.99 0.97


The difference in ROIs between Win and Pace betting was not significant on Favorites
too few races to be meaningful on Non-Faves.

The chart below shows the effect of final toteboard odds on return.
. . Instead of tabulating the odds numbers into segments, I prefer sorting on the factor
and showing the running balance of betting those races in that order.
It's easier to spot rising or falling slopes that way.

The "Sweet spot" here seems to be between 3/2 and 5/2 odds on faves.
Bets on selections greater than 5/2 were almost always not the favorite.

traynor
09-30-2014, 09:31 AM
There is a tendency at some harness tracks (most recent that comes to mind is the first at Yonkers last night) in which "early money" disproportionately tweaks the odds, in essence creating a false favorite. Because enough people are influenced by that influx of early money to wager on that selection--and many others follow--a relatively small wager made early can inflate the mutuels on the "real" selection. The technique is perfectly legal, and has been used at greyhound tracks and the smaller thoroughbred tracks for years.

You may recall I mentioned recently that my current records indicated a disproportionate number of odds-on entries were losing--so much so that they could (generally) be eliminated for serious consideration. Rather than "lack of effort because odds were too short" the root cause may be simplistic pool manipulation, followed by the foolishness of crowds chasing one another.

You might consider looking at the figures when the heavy favorites are factored out. I used even money as the breaking point, but lower odds are even more dismal in the return department--3/5 or less is like throwing money into a bottomless pit.

I am suggesting that you have accumulated some very valuable data, that might be mined for other information than that readily apparent. Any time you can break even over a large run, with a strike rate in the high 70% range, rebates can generate some very nice profit with minimal initial outlay. Great work!

mrroyboy
09-30-2014, 02:07 PM
I agree and cannot praise Ray's work enough. This is done without late changes etc. Break even is huge.
Very nice work Ray.

Ray2000
09-30-2014, 03:48 PM
Thanks guys

Traynor
I think it was your post (reply #10) in thread

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=114783

that got me looking at finding value in low priced horses. I wanted to see how the 2nd favorite compared with 1st.
Turned out it was the Place return on faves (-9 ROI%) on a 5200 sample, that started this run.

In the past I've always ignored betting faves in the Win or Place pools.

With the right stake distribution, (and good odds:)) Place betting on a Exotic key, might work as a hedge.

Thanks again


And thanks to ALL for your comments.