The Travers-Punch it to the bell rings

[zico20]

The field is drawn for the Travers. 10 horses, or should I say 3 horses and 7 mules. Unless something happens to one of the big three, this trifecta is in the bag. The safe way is to box the three and hope Bayern doesn't win and the payoff will be around 40.00 bucks. Now, if you can pick the winner then you only need two combos and can play it 20 to 50 times. Maybe even 100 times. It certainly looks like they are giving money away.

Just tell the mutual clerk 2-6-7 trifecta box and "punch it to the bell rings".

[Maximillion]

The field is drawn for the Travers. 10 horses, or should I say 3 horses and 7 mules. Unless something happens to one of the big three, this trifecta is in the bag. The safe way is to box the three and hope Bayern doesn't win and the payoff will be around 40.00 bucks. Now, if you can pick the winner then you only need two combos and can play it 20 to 50 times. Maybe even 100 times. It certainly looks like they are giving money away.

Just tell the mutual clerk 2-6-7 trifecta box and "punch it to the bell rings".

Im not trying to start an argument.....but whenever it looks (obvious) like 3 or 4 horses are far superior to the rest of the competition, trifectas and superfectas may not be the best way to go as far as wagering on a race,but I could easily be wrong.

[zico20]

Im not trying to start an argument.....but whenever it looks (obvious) like 3 or 4 horses are far superior to the rest of the competition, trifectas and superfectas may not be the best way to go as far as wagering on a race,but I could easily be wrong.

You are actually correct. That is why when I play my straight tris and supers they are generally in lower level races where there are only 6 horses and two of them can't run a lick. In these big races they don't usually come in, I will give you that. However, I just don't see any of the big three running a clunker. Bayern will be lone speed and he just keeps getting better and better. Baffert always thought he would be a superstar and it is finally happening. One of these other seven will have to run a race far exceeding anything they have ever done before. And as far as Commanding Curve goes, he still must prove he can run a step somewhere other than CD.

[Thebigguy]

The field is drawn for the Travers. 10 horses, or should I say 3 horses and 7 mules. Unless something happens to one of the big three, this trifecta is in the bag. The safe way is to box the three and hope Bayern doesn't win and the payoff will be around 40.00 bucks. Now, if you can pick the winner then you only need two combos and can play it 20 to 50 times. Maybe even 100 times. It certainly looks like they are giving money away.

Just tell the mutual clerk 2-6-7 trifecta box and "punch it to the bell rings".

You have to be joking, right? Troll thread?

[zico20]

why am I a troll?

[Disenchantedguy]

I like Bayern, he is actually one of my favorite horses and I think he might be THE fastest horse going right now in terms of pure raw speed... But for some reason I think he's going to fade in the stretch.. I can't prove it of course, but its just a gut feeling I have.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

.... It certainly looks like they are giving money away..

Perhaps they are, but it's more likely they are not.

Nothing wrong with having a strong and public opinion though.....

[letswastemoney]

I like Bayern, he is actually one of my favorite horses and I think he might be THE fastest horse going right now in terms of pure raw speed... But for some reason I think he's going to fade in the stretch.. I can't prove it of course, but its just a gut feeling I have.A lot of people think speed hurts when going longer, if that's what you're feeling. But, I think Bayern should be fine as long as no other horse commits pace suicide.

[Rex Phinney]

The field is drawn for the Travers. 10 horses, or should I say 3 horses and 7 mules. Unless something happens to one of the big three, this trifecta is in the bag. The safe way is to box the three and hope Bayern doesn't win and the payoff will be around 40.00 bucks. Now, if you can pick the winner then you only need two combos and can play it 20 to 50 times. Maybe even 100 times. It certainly looks like they are giving money away.

Just tell the mutual clerk 2-6-7 trifecta box and "punch it to the bell rings".

How about you go find all the times that Wicked Strong would have got you paid in a race beyond 9 furlongs betting the trifecta.

I'll wait...

[appistappis]

can't tell you how many times in a 'three horse race' they run 1st 2nd and 4th, with a bomber third.

[menifee]

What about Mr. Speaker getting a piece? He's a talented horse. They obviously think he can run on the dirt. He appears to be a closer. Maybe toss that Holy Bull performance to being to close to the pace and GP's dirt track is a strange track.

Horse wants to close and not be on the pace.

[UnionRags]

Horses that failed miserable on the gulfstream quicksand, have gone on to be stars. Wicked strong... Danza...

[UnionRags]

6-7 for us

[burnsy]

Im not trying to start an argument.....but whenever it looks (obvious) like 3 or 4 horses are far superior to the rest of the competition, trifectas and superfectas may not be the best way to go as far as wagering on a race,but I could easily be wrong.

No argument here. This is horse racing.....picking the winner is hard enough. If triples were this easy we would all be billionaires. Since when do they come in like this?..............and the way the Travers goes.....yeah right........ok...its real simple. :confused: Not saying it won't happen but am pretty sure it won't and if it does, its not exactly a healthy triple ticket to take a chance on.....2-1, 3-1, 7-2.......and probably the most punched triple ticket........good luck.

[thespaah]

The field is drawn for the Travers. 10 horses, or should I say 3 horses and 7 mules. Unless something happens to one of the big three, this trifecta is in the bag. The safe way is to box the three and hope Bayern doesn't win and the payoff will be around 40.00 bucks. Now, if you can pick the winner then you only need two combos and can play it 20 to 50 times. Maybe even 100 times. It certainly looks like they are giving money away.

Just tell the mutual clerk 2-6-7 trifecta box and "punch it to the bell rings".
I did some stats checking...
Since 2007..7 Races
Field size....7 two times 9 once. 10 once 11 twice 12 once.
In those 7 Travers, the betting favorite won twice. 5 times ITM.
One one occasion, ,2008 did the top three choices in the wagering finish ITM
And in 2009, it was ther only other tTravers in which the top TWO betting choices finish ITM
Since the running of the 2007 the average Trifecta payoff is $1639.19
Note the dead heat in 2012. There were two trifecta combos paid out.

[thespaah]

I like Bayern, he is actually one of my favorite horses and I think he might be THE fastest horse going right now in terms of pure raw speed... But for some reason I think he's going to fade in the stretch.. I can't prove it of course, but its just a gut feeling I have.
I've seen some wacky things happen at this track.
Based on the gremlins, I would not be in the least bit surprise if Bayern has a daylight lead at the 3/16ths and gets caught.
I am going to look for the horse or horses that appear on paper to be 'pointed' to this race.
Am I going to try to "beat" Bayern? Oh hell no....

[Cratos]

This race comes down to McGaughey and Clement; and McGaughey gets the call.

Mr. Speaker

Tonalist

Wicked Strong

[Poindexter]

can't tell you how many times in a 'three horse race' they run 1st 2nd and 4th, with a bomber third.

I hear ya. Thus the superfecta saver ticket 3 x 3 x all x 3.

[zico20]

This race reminds me a lot like the West Virginia Derby. In that race there were three good horses and five mules. Candy Boy, Tapiture, and Vicars in Trouble were clearly far superior than the rest of the field. I did NOT attempt to split them for the superfecta. I should have made my original post on here back then to see what the response would have been.

So, lets be honest, how many on this site thought the big three in the WV Derby would not run 1-2-3. Who lost money trying to beat one of those three for the tri or super. I sure the hell did not. Unfortunately for me, Candy Boy getting nosed out cost me making 3500 instead of a little over 300.

The Travers is not quite on the WV Derby level of 1-2-3 but it is close on paper. I will play a saver with a couple of horses third just in case one of the big three runs 4th. But the big bet will be that they run 1-2-3.

[zico20]

How about you go find all the times that Wicked Strong would have got you paid in a race beyond 9 furlongs betting the trifecta.

I'll wait...

If Wicked Strong runs a 98 Beyer like he did in the Belmont, he will be in the tri. The rest of these horses will be lucky to hit 85 at a mile and a quarter. The Curlin Stakes was just awful. The winner was lugging in and they all stumbled home after a 112 for six. Those three suck, period.

[Maximillion]

This race reminds me a lot like the West Virginia Derby. In that race there were three good horses and five mules. Candy Boy, Tapiture, and Vicars in Trouble were clearly far superior than the rest of the field. I did NOT attempt to split them for the superfecta. I should have made my original post on here back then to see what the response would have been.

So, lets be honest, how many on this site thought the big three in the WV Derby would not run 1-2-3. Who lost money trying to beat one of those three for the tri or super. I sure the hell did not. Unfortunately for me, Candy Boy getting nosed out cost me making 3500 instead of a little over 300.

The Travers is not quite on the WV Derby level of 1-2-3 but it is close on paper. I will play a saver with a couple of horses third just in case one of the big three runs 4th. But the big bet will be that they run 1-2-3.

I think as a long term strategy its a bad idea.....but as been said here nothing wrong with having a strong opinion.

[Investorater]

Bayern jogged one mile yesterday and gallops 1 1/2 miles today,,,,,,,, :cool:

[razorback5]

like the top three but going to add V.E. Day as my longshot. I will have Bayren/WS over Bayren/WS/Tonalist/V.E Day for my tri and adding Kid Cruz in the third and fourth slot for my super.
2,7/2,4,6,7/2,4,6,7 1 tri=$12
2,7/2,4,6,7/2,4,6,7,8/2,4,6,7,8 $1 super =$36

[Ocala Mike]

Not punching anything in this race without the :10: , MR. SPEAKER, on my ticket somewhere.

[HuggingTheRail]

I am still heeding his advice....been punching it for hours....only 15 minutes to go....

[RaceBookJoe]

Love those cant miss trifectas :)

[Clocker]

Love those cant miss trifectas :)

All it takes is three perfect trips. :rolleyes:

[bbixler18]

Almost had it.............:rolleyes:

[Longshot6977]

Just tell the mutual clerk 2-6-7 trifecta box and "punch it to the bell rings".
I hope you told him to stop punching that combo long ago. Nothing's a sure thing in horse racing.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Amazing what happens when Game On..., I mean Bayern doesn't get an easy lead.

[Longshot6977]

like the top three but going to add V.E. Day as my longshot.

Nice addition. I hope you added him on top. :ThmbUp:

[Rex Phinney]

Amazing what happens when Game On..., I mean Bayern doesn't get an easy lead.

Yeah it's amazing that two horses would ruin there chances to win the race to ensure he works hard out front. Tonalist and WS looked like quarter horses chasing after him.

Glad neither of those jocks found the winner circle

[tophatmert]

Yeah it's amazing that two horses would ruin there chances to win the race to ensure he works hard out front. Tonalist and WS looked like quarter horses chasing after him.

Glad neither of those jocks found the winner circle
Bayern was awful the other two certainly were not.

[raybo]

The pace was competitive, but certainly not murderous. Bayern clearly couldn't handle the extra 1/8m today, but Wicked Strong certainly did and had the race won. Don't know if he relaxed too much in the final 1/16th and lost momentum, or not, but V E Day came very strong late, for sure. I looked at V E Day but his class and distance ratings just didn't look good enough to beat the top 3.

Some will call this a pace meltdown, but that's not what I saw. I saw good fractions for 1 1/4m but not fast enough to cause a meltdown, Bayern IMO, just wasn't right for this distance.

I'll hold off calling V E Day of the same caliber of a WS or Tonalist after his win, but he certainly made a few folks very happy, and a lot more sad/mad - LOL!

Regarding the OP's suggestion? Very bad advice, obviously, hoping for 3 good trips and at 1 1/4m too. Hope nobody here took that route.

[Tall One]

Amazing what happens when Game On..., I mean Bayern doesn't get an easy lead.



Exactly. Didn't include him in my wager as I knew he had to hit the distance wall at some point. If they were serious about him going a mile and a quarter, he should've had at least one work at Saratoga.

My .10 super play for the red board bells-- :3: :7: :9: :10: :ThmbDown:

[PhantomOnTour]

I try to never disparage anothers' handicapping opinion, but when things seem so obvious, it's time to take another look.

[dansan]

Got to love those hot tips :D

[Stillriledup]

Got to love those hot tips :D

Better than no tips. ;)

[dansan]

So true

[Tall One]

I try to never disparage anothers' handicapping opinion, but when things seem so obvious, it's time to take another look.


The logic of the illogic... ;)

[burnsy]

I try to never disparage anothers' handicapping opinion, but when things seem so obvious, it's time to take another look.

I said the same thing on page one of this thread when it was started. Oh well, live and learn...........Yup, 3 good horses and a bunch of "mules".....Where the heck was that super horse Bayern? :lol:

[dnlgfnk]

The percentages that the three favorites would comprise the trifecta were significantly lower than the chances that they would not.

[acorn54]

"whom the gods want to make mad, they first let them see the future"
anonymous

[dnlgfnk]

We still don't know the identity of "The Kid" in Beyer lore, but I believe we located "Goodlife".

[Billnewman]

I said the same thing on page one of this thread when it was started. Oh well, live and learn...........Yup, 3 good horses and a bunch of "mules".....Where the heck was that super horse Bayern? :lol:

Seems like Garcia tried to slow it down before entering the clubhouse turn. But it was obvious the other two weren't gonna let him get away like he did in the Haskell. If Garcia hadn't throttled down don't think any of the big three would have been around for the finish.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

The pace was competitive, but certainly not murderous. Bayern clearly couldn't handle the extra 1/8m today, but Wicked Strong certainly did and had the race won. Don't know if he relaxed too much in the final 1/16th and lost momentum, or not, but V E Day came very strong late, for sure. I looked at V E Day but his class and distance ratings just didn't look good enough to beat the top 3.

Some will call this a pace meltdown, but that's not what I saw. I saw good fractions for 1 1/4m but not fast enough to cause a meltdown, Bayern IMO, just wasn't right for this distance.

I'll hold off calling V E Day of the same caliber of a WS or Tonalist after his win, but he certainly made a few folks very happy, and a lot more sad/mad - LOL!

Regarding the OP's suggestion? Very bad advice, obviously, hoping for 3 good trips and at 1 1/4m too. Hope nobody here took that route.

Article at DRF calls into question the jockey's tactics and pace.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/watchmaker-strange-strategy-travers-jockeys

I agree that it didn't seem to be a meltdown, except of course for Bayern. I'd say at the SPA though, you've got to have some value to account for some of the oddly run races, especially on turf. I seem to have a knack for picking horses that get blocked, checked, closers near the lead, front-runners coming from off-the-pace, etc., more so than at other tracks.