Handicapping changes?

[Capper Al]

How fast does handicapping change? If too fast then why buy software at all? If not, what are you doing to keep up with it? Are the essentials always the same?

I believe racing changes happen all at once like when poly tracks popped up or PC became available. In between these changes very little happens. And I do believe the fundamentals are always there. We just need to figure out how to adapt the fundamentals to the changes.

The major changes that I can list are


Horses are better grouped into a race of similar class horses.
Days since last raced isn't as straight foward as it used to be.
poly tracks
Many more sprint turf races
Many more optional claiming or, at least, it seems so.
Computer aided handicapping.

Speed figures are available to everyone.
The public is hip to pace, but not as much as they think they are.

[acorn54]

How fast does handicapping change? If too fast then why buy software at all? If not, what are you doing to keep up with it? Are the essentials always the same?

I believe racing changes happen all at once like when poly tracks popped up or PC became available. In between these changes very little happens. And I do believe the fundamentals are always there. We just need to figure out how to adapt the fundamentals to the changes.

The major changes that I can list are


Horses are better grouped into a race of similar class horses.
Days since last raced isn't as straight foward as it used to be.
poly tracks
Many more sprint turf races
Many more optional claiming or, at least, it seems so.
Computer aided handicapping.

Speed figures are available to everyone.
The public is hip to pace, but not as much as they think they are.



capper al, you seem to be an astute observer.
for me i only use my software for "fun", and as a tool to keep records of my performance. knowing how much i am losing keeps me honest and within my budget for the year.

[DeltaLover]

How fast does handicapping change? If too fast then why buy software at all? If not, what are you doing to keep up with it? Are the essentials always the same?

I believe racing changes happen all at once like when poly tracks popped up or PC became available. In between these changes very little happens. And I do believe the fundamentals are always there. We just need to figure out how to adapt the fundamentals to the changes.

The major changes that I can list are


Horses are better grouped into a race of similar class horses.
Days since last raced isn't as straight foward as it used to be.
poly tracks
Many more sprint turf races
Many more optional claiming or, at least, it seems so.
Computer aided handicapping.

Speed figures are available to everyone.
The public is hip to pace, but not as much as they think they are.


This is a nice topic you are spawning Al...

I think you need to make a distinction when it comes to “handicapping”.

I can see two different processes fitting the same term and I believe that realizing them is vital for successful horse betting.

The first type of “handicapping” is solely geared towards the chances of each starter to win the race and should be of interest mainly to the connections of the horse (assuming they are targeting only the purse of the race)..

Most of the bettors are following the same process as well, as they are more interesting in picking a winner rather than betting for profit. The dictating angles for this process seem to be relatively simple and well known both to bettors and connections.

Of course, these angles are not immutable and as time goes by, they change, as the training methods, medication, breeding and other factors are changing as well...

The second type of “handicapping”, the one that should be the main focus of the bettor, has to do with how well the “winner pickers” are doing their job, trying to find a hole in their consensus. Following this approach, there is a twist in the final decision making, as in most of the cases, a horse not fitting the “most frequent winner” profile will probably be the best bet of the race.

This means that a horse with an obvious problematic running line, might present the proper combination of factors to become the best bet in the race; examples of this type of a bet might be a female against males or a three year old facing older early during the racing season.

Although the individual factors (like female against males) might (and should) change as time goes by, this second type of “handicapping” will never change as it represents a meta-processing (generic) layer completely transparent to the specifics (for example the factors you are enumerating above).

[thaskalos]

There have been a few major changes within the game which have necessitated the altering of our handicapping methods. The emergence of the polytrack and the "supertrainer" certainly brought about a change in our handicapping...as did the proliferation of exotic wagering. There may also be some more changes like these in the future...which may require even further alteration of our play.

But most of what we perceive as "changes" are not really changes in the game; they are changes in our PERCEPTION of it. The player's journey in the game is an upward climb...and his view of the game is bound to change as his vantage point changes.

I equate it to the changing opinions of the physicists as they describe the world around us. The world remains the same...but our opinions about it change as our knowledge and our observational tools improve.

[acorn54]

forex traders have a saying "do you want to be right, or do you want to make money"

[Capper Al]

Delta,

I guess whatever the capper's goal is, either to make money or pick winners, it really doesn't matter. Whatever formula or method they use to achieve their goal, have they found themselves modifying their ways because of changes in racing?

This does lead to an interesting question for those who purchased software. How does your software company keep up with these changes in racing when they happen if the company does keep up them at all?

[Capper Al]

There have been a few major changes within the game which have necessitated the altering of our handicapping methods. The emergence of the polytrack and the "supertrainer" certainly brought about a change in our handicapping...as did the proliferation of exotic wagering. There may also be some more changes like these in the future...which may require even further alteration of our play.

But most of what we perceive as "changes" are not really changes in the game; they are changes in our PERCEPTION of it. The player's journey in the game is an upward climb...and his view of the game is bound to change as his vantage point changes.

I equate it to the changing opinions of the physicists as they describe the world around us. The world remains the same...but our opinions about it change as our knowledge and our observational tools improve.

A lot of truth to this. It may be more our perception as we improve as handicappers that changes our view, not the game itself.

[Robert Goren]

One major change is that handicappers allow a horse more time between races than they used to.

[DeltaLover]

Delta,

I guess whatever the capper's goal is, either to make money or pick winners, it really doesn't matter. Whatever formula or method they use to achieve their goal, have they found themselves modifying their ways because of changes in racing?

This does lead to an interesting question for those who purchased software. How does your software company keep up with these changes in racing when they happen if the company does keep up them at all?


I am not well aware about commercial handicapping software, as I am excursively using my own. I still believe that this kind of software should be “factor agnostic”, meaning it should not hard-code them but should only rely on raw data as input and been able to mutate its agents in an on going basis.

Of course this sounds easier that it really is, as the required design and implementation challenges are of significant difficulty and complexity. An easier solution might be a “hybrid” approach, where part of the platform relies on hand crafted scenarios that the user can express in a DSL periodically, as a means of assisting the algorithm to discover new patterns, utilizing the handicapper's intuition and experience to some extend.

[Capper Al]

I'm about to code my class ratings similar to BRIS' RR and CR. I have studied 12,000 races. Postulated a over 70 formulas, after many others failed. When it goes to test, I'll have at least 300 hours of my time into it. Two better happen. First it works. And second, things don't change.

[Capper Al]

One major change is that handicappers allow a horse more time between races than they used to.

This is a hard one. Do they work them back on the farm? Who knows anymore?

[acorn54]

another handicapping change which is available to everyone is the almost infinite number of statistics, and their roi and win percentage.
use to be people that laboriously kept records of such things as trainer/jockey combinations, or trainer patterns MAY have had an edge in the parimutuel pools. today anyone, even the weekend player can have any stat they want with just a few keystrokes.
such technology available to the general public has made the parimutuel pools virtually efficient in the odds given to each horse at post time, imo.

[Capper Al]

another handicapping change which is available to everyone is the almost infinite number of statistics, and their roi and win percentage.
use to be people that laboriously kept records of such things as trainer/jockey combinations, or trainer patterns MAY have had an edge in the parimutuel pools. today anyone, even the weekend player can have any stat they want with just a few keystrokes.
such technology available to the general public has made the parimutuel pools virtually efficient in the odds given to each horse at post time, imo.

A good one. Added to my list!

[whodoyoulike]

I'm about to code my class ratings similar to BRIS' RR and CR. I have studied 12,000 races. Postulated a over 70 formulas, after many others failed. When it goes to test, I'll have at least 300 hours of my time into it. Two better happen. First it works. And second, things don't change.

I've been reading your posts for a while now regarding coding for class, speed, pace etc., you need to develop a comprehensive program which includes all of the factors you've been reviewing. I think successful handicapping includes all of these variables. You have good ideas so quit doing it piecemeal and stop screwing around. One factor has an effect on the other factors. Just keep in mind that you'll never be able to develop a program which will allow you to successfully handicap every type or race situation.

[HUSKER55]

FWIW

Point #1:
I have found that knowing what is working is more important than "covering all bases" and using a "final number".

Point #2:
For me, I move horses around and create my own line. If I come across a horse that I think is the same as 3 others [for example] and the odds are 30:1, I bet it.

You will amaze yourself with what floats to the top. Not every race and sometimes days apart. But every once in awhile you hit a big one.

I am a big believer in one's own line.

Good Luck!

[Capper Al]

I've been reading your posts for a while now regarding coding for class, speed, pace etc., you need to develop a comprehensive program which includes all of the factors you've been reviewing. I think successful handicapping includes all of these variables. You have good ideas so quit doing it piecemeal and stop screwing around. One factor has an effect on the other factors. Just keep in mind that you'll never be able to develop a program which will allow you to successfully handicap every type or race situation.

Actually, this about version 103 that's getting reformulated and revamped. It's time for a make over. Most common throughout my apps is a comprehensive approach adding up points for speed, class, form, prep, and connections. I'm not sure this is the best approach. But I intend to keep with it for this rewrite. I love to code and do analysis. For the gamblers, buying someone else's app works just fine. I consider this rewrite my first professional level app. When I wrote the earlier versions, I lacked experience with the game. My systems were basically book based. Looking forward to testing my class figs soon.

[Capper Al]

FWIW

Point #1:
I have found that knowing what is working is more important than "covering all bases" and using a "final number".

Point #2:
For me, I move horses around and create my own line. If I come across a horse that I think is the same as 3 others [for example] and the odds are 30:1, I bet it.

You will amaze yourself with what floats to the top. Not every race and sometimes days apart. But every once in awhile you hit a big one.

I am a big believer in one's own line.

Good Luck!

Using a single factor only has done well for me in the past. My longest profitable streak, 13 weeks, was using Giles's style pace figs for non-maidens while using workout times for maidens. The problem with comprehensive handicapping is that it gets more low odds horses than single factor systems making it difficult to be profitable.

[whodoyoulike]

Using a single factor only has done well for me in the past. My longest profitable streak, 13 weeks, was using Giles's style pace figs for non-maidens while using workout times for maidens. The problem with comprehensive handicapping is that it gets more low odds horses than single factor systems making it difficult to be profitable.

I was interested in your threads because I also used to concentrate on one factor at a time. But, it didn't start to make sense or rather I didn't start to see the pace scenarios until I combined all the factors with a focused plan. Again, I wouldn't try to create a program for all types of races or situations.

What's wrong with low odds horses which can win? Just make certain the odds are acceptable.

Good luck. I want to see you succeed because I think you have creative ideas which is needed in this game. And, I was hoping you'd let us know when you get to that aha moment.

[JohnGalt1]

How fast does handicapping change? If too fast then why buy software at all? If not, what are you doing to keep up with it? Are the essentials always the same?

I believe racing changes happen all at once like when poly tracks popped up or PC became available. In between these changes very little happens. And I do believe the fundamentals are always there. We just need to figure out how to adapt the fundamentals to the changes.

The major changes that I can list are


Horses are better grouped into a race of similar class horses.
Days since last raced isn't as straight foward as it used to be.
poly tracks
Many more sprint turf races
Many more optional claiming or, at least, it seems so.
Computer aided handicapping.

Speed figures are available to everyone.
The public is hip to pace, but not as much as they think they are.


Another thought provoking thread.

If you played before the 1980's one handicapped to win (or place and show).

We now have to handicap for 4th and fifth place in a race. A totally different mindset especially since the 4th place horse could finish or stagger home, 15 lengths behind the winner.

I personally never handicap for 5th place since I don't play pentafectas.

Plus back then almost 100% of ones bankroll was devoted to win betting, and not divided between up to 6(or more) different types of wagers per race.

[Billnewman]

another handicapping change which is available to everyone is the almost infinite number of statistics, and their roi and win percentage.
use to be people that laboriously kept records of such things as trainer/jockey combinations, or trainer patterns MAY have had an edge in the parimutuel pools. today anyone, even the weekend player can have any stat they want with just a few keystrokes.
such technology available to the general public has made the parimutuel pools virtually efficient in the odds given to each horse at post time, imo.

Unless you have a ton of money to maintain a home based track it's not worth the risk of injury. If they did train on the farm it would defiantly be on grass.