How Long Between Wins?

[RarifiedAir]

Hi Everyone.

First post here. Have read a lot. Posts, books, handicapping software, newsletters, etc, etc... But I don't post a lot. I want to have a good reason and not waste people's valuable time. Enough about myself.

Question: How long since a horse's last win before you just toss him/her out? Race 1 AP 08-17-2014 #3 Frank's Time. Not bad if you look at some last race info. Beyers fit. Odds fit. Is actually in good form.

Then I look at the PP's WHOA! Hideous is too kind. It hadn't won since fire was invented (actually 2012 - 28 races back)

As expected it was crushed yet again by a nice 8-1 shot.

Look forward to your thoughts on this.

[thaskalos]

The date of a particular horse's last victory may infleunce the way races are filled...but it has no effect whatsoever on me, as a bettor.

There are many other things that I consider more noteworthy.

[DeltaLover]

Hi Everyone.

First post here. Have read a lot. Posts, books, handicapping software, newsletters, etc, etc... But I don't post a lot. I want to have a good reason and not waste people's valuable time. Enough about myself.

Question: How long since a horse's last win before you just toss him/her out? Race 1 AP 08-17-2014 #3 Frank's Time. Not bad if you look at some last race info. Beyers fit. Odds fit. Is actually in good form.

Then I look at the PP's WHOA! Hideous is too kind. It hadn't won since fire was invented (actually 2012 - 28 races back)

As expected it was crushed yet again by a nice 8-1 shot.

Look forward to your thoughts on this.

Alone the time interval since the last win is meaningless and of course your question is impossible to be answered directly..

You should not be thinking in terms of blanket rules that are applicable across the board; in contrary in horse racing every handicapping decision you are going to be making depends on many other factors, both of the individual horse and his rivals as a group.

[taxicab]

If a horse has lost 15 or 16 races in a row I'll probably toss him/her out.

[menifee]

Hi Everyone.

First post here. Have read a lot. Posts, books, handicapping software, newsletters, etc, etc... But I don't post a lot. I want to have a good reason and not waste people's valuable time. Enough about myself.

Question: How long since a horse's last win before you just toss him/her out? Race 1 AP 08-17-2014 #3 Frank's Time. Not bad if you look at some last race info. Beyers fit. Odds fit. Is actually in good form.

Then I look at the PP's WHOA! Hideous is too kind. It hadn't won since fire was invented (actually 2012 - 28 races back)

As expected it was crushed yet again by a nice 8-1 shot.

Look forward to your thoughts on this.

There was a horse at Woodbine on Sunday - August 17. Race 4 - Horse 7. Mahogany Road. The horse had not raced in nearly 2 years and had not won for over 2 years. The works were really nice I was playing the p4. I automatically tossed it and used the two likely horses in a .20 pick 4 play. Of course, the horse won and paid $50 to win with the 2 likely horses completing the tri. $1 pick 4 paid 50k. I had the rest of the sequence. Very frustrating - I have a rule where I toss horses coming back off of 2 yr layoffs, but I'm starting to rethink this rule.

[Stillriledup]

Lots of good responses here so far. For me, i don't care what a horse's win record is as long as i don't see VISUALLY that the horse refuses to pass other horses or does something that i see on tape that leads me to believe that the horse somehow underachieves when a win is in his grasp.

[Maximillion]

Lots of good responses here so far. For me, i don't care what a horse's win record is as long as i don't see VISUALLY that the horse refuses to pass other horses or does something that i see on tape that leads me to believe that the horse somehow underachieves when a win is in his grasp.


There are plenty of these, and my best guess would be they are on every racetrack.Whether the issues are mental (afraid of other horses?) or some other thing I cant really say.......but from a win betting perspective I would probably avoid them.

I wouldnt put the horse from the OPs example from AP in this category...he does one thing well and has NOT underachieved in his races,despite the recent run of futility.

[therussmeister]

If it is a claiming race with conditions, especially NW2L or NW3L I strongly prefer horses that have won more recently, but two of my main handicapping rules are, never say never, and never say always.

[Maximillion]

If it is a claiming race with conditions, especially NW2L or NW3L I strongly prefer horses that have won more recently, but two of my main handicapping rules are, never say never, and never say always.

If the price is right there are no rules.

[Some_One]

According to my db (which only does wins in last 10 races), it appears it doesn't make much of a difference in ROI, the more wins = higher win rate, lower odds

423-Wn10
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
0 29,807 2,715 9.1 $1.56 0.75 0.99 0.93
1 71,333 8,095 11.3 $1.51 0.94 1.00 0.98
2 49,629 6,448 13.0 $1.51 1.04 0.98 0.99
3 22,084 3,333 15.1 $1.56 1.18 0.99 1.04
4 7,982 1,395 17.5 $1.56 1.34 0.98 1.07
5 4,990 873 17.5 $1.44 1.37 0.94 1.03
6 1,246 263 21.1 $1.52 1.61 0.96 1.10
7 261 61 23.4 $1.56 1.77 0.90 1.10
8 75 21 28.0 $1.55 2.06 0.95 1.17
9 3 2 66.7 $1.87 5.42 1.37 1.87
10 807 136 16.9 $1.25 1.33 0.91 0.97

[Stillriledup]

If the price is right there are no rules.

And normally, horses who "never win" are overlays because enough people feel that a certain amount of losses in a row means the horse just "doesnt know how to win" but in 99.99999 percent of the cases, the horse you're looking at isnt the worst horse in America and if you're not the worst horse, there's someone you can beat at some point.

[Robert Fischer]

And normally, horses who "never win" are overlays because enough people feel that a certain amount of losses in a row means the horse just "doesnt know how to win" but in 99.99999 percent of the cases, the horse you're looking at isnt the worst horse in America and if you're not the worst horse, there's someone you can beat at some point.

Yes.

I think all things being equal, I'd prefer my horse to have ugly looking form.

Those aren't always easy to find.