Bubbles
04-29-2004, 07:23 PM
LIMEHOUSE: Has some things going for him in this spot, he's unbeaten at Churchill, his works have been solid, and can overcome a muddy track if need be. But that rail is a killer. A mid-pack finish is most likely.
SONG OF THE SWORD: Needs to overcome a lot of obstacles. He's carrying a ton of weight compared to his last two starts and has lost to a few of these in the past. However, he broke his maiden in the slop, and might figure into the mix if the skies empty.
LION HEART: Overrated based on a short two-year-old season that featured him beating few notable rivals. His Blue Grass was okay, nothing special, and I don't see him outbreaking Read the Footnotes early on. Shaky at best.
ACTION THIS DAY: He's taken to the track very well in two works under the Twin Spires, including going six panels in 1:12 2/5 over a sloppy strip on 4/22. This race sets up for a closer, the post position is good, and he's 30-1; live longshot despite spooky year thus far.
WIMBLEDON: Bounced badly in the SA Derby after two monster wins. Like ATD, has taken a liking to this surface in two works, gets Jerry Bailey, and has the running style to win this race; the pick on a fast track.
FRIENDS LAKE: The spitting image of Funny Cide, I kid you not. They have the same running style, same homestate, and will go off at roughly the same odds. I liked his FLA Derby, has put up a few bullets since then, and has conquered off tracks before, all of which gives him something of a shot.
MINISTER ERIC: He was supposed to have the field of his last race over a barrel. The race itself wasn't horrible, but hardly enough to make you believe he can step up to beat these: longshot.
MASTER DAVID: Will be a massive overlay due to Frankel. I did not like his Wood at all, he looked like a winner with a furlong to go, and folded. May run a little too close to a hot pace, and will get run down when the real running begins.
ST. AVERIL: NO.
IMPERIALISM: Very good closer from California ships in after being bumped up to second in the SA Derby. That one was not bad at all, and he showed people he had the late kick to pose a major threat on May 1st. He may not handle the slop very well, but if the skies remain clear, watch for him late, and at a decent price.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE: The Blue Grass is a perfect example as to my disdain of speed figures. He ran a very good race, and showed he could get the distance. He has very little negatives, but what scares me away from him is his 4/26 work over a strip he supposedly loves (1:01 for 5 panels, breezing); contender, but I'll try to beat him.
BORREGO: This horse has a respectable class disadvantage. He has never won a stakes race, and has not taken to the surface well to boot. Hank Greenberg has voiced his support for this one in the past; have fun, Hank.
BIRDSTONE: 50-1 off one bad race? He worked five panels in :58 2/5 over a good track. Has two Derby winners in his paternal pedigree; a definite contender in the mud.
READ THE FOOTNOTES: The wild card in this field. Will not contend, but he IS the fastest horse out of the gate, and that may throw a few horses off their games...
SMARTY JONES:...like this one. Has not shown the ability to rate in his six previous races, and that may pose a problem. His worktab is impressive, and this IS a horse that is the real deal, I just don't see the race setting up for him; no more than an exotics must.
CASTLEDALE: The SA Derby may have been a fluke, it may not. Either way, he closed like a truck late. However, none of his works have been over this track, and I'm not sure how he'll take to it; tough call.
POLLARD'S VISION: He carried 114 in the ILL Derby, he carries 126 here. 12-pound increase is very drastic; fear his speed will be compromised by it.
TAPIT: Not a fan. The post is bad, his early fractions have been mediocre to be kind, and he has a frontrunner, Quinton's Gold Rush, breaking two paths outside him. Not sold.
PRO PRADO: Has a closing kick, his works are okay, but in his only start at CD, he finished a well-beaten fourth to The Cliff's Edge; just like others a tad more.
QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH: See St. Averil.
Fast Track
Wimbledon
Imperialism
Smarty Jones
The Cliff's Edge
Off Track
Action This Day
Birdstone
Friends Lake
Song of the Sword
SONG OF THE SWORD: Needs to overcome a lot of obstacles. He's carrying a ton of weight compared to his last two starts and has lost to a few of these in the past. However, he broke his maiden in the slop, and might figure into the mix if the skies empty.
LION HEART: Overrated based on a short two-year-old season that featured him beating few notable rivals. His Blue Grass was okay, nothing special, and I don't see him outbreaking Read the Footnotes early on. Shaky at best.
ACTION THIS DAY: He's taken to the track very well in two works under the Twin Spires, including going six panels in 1:12 2/5 over a sloppy strip on 4/22. This race sets up for a closer, the post position is good, and he's 30-1; live longshot despite spooky year thus far.
WIMBLEDON: Bounced badly in the SA Derby after two monster wins. Like ATD, has taken a liking to this surface in two works, gets Jerry Bailey, and has the running style to win this race; the pick on a fast track.
FRIENDS LAKE: The spitting image of Funny Cide, I kid you not. They have the same running style, same homestate, and will go off at roughly the same odds. I liked his FLA Derby, has put up a few bullets since then, and has conquered off tracks before, all of which gives him something of a shot.
MINISTER ERIC: He was supposed to have the field of his last race over a barrel. The race itself wasn't horrible, but hardly enough to make you believe he can step up to beat these: longshot.
MASTER DAVID: Will be a massive overlay due to Frankel. I did not like his Wood at all, he looked like a winner with a furlong to go, and folded. May run a little too close to a hot pace, and will get run down when the real running begins.
ST. AVERIL: NO.
IMPERIALISM: Very good closer from California ships in after being bumped up to second in the SA Derby. That one was not bad at all, and he showed people he had the late kick to pose a major threat on May 1st. He may not handle the slop very well, but if the skies remain clear, watch for him late, and at a decent price.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE: The Blue Grass is a perfect example as to my disdain of speed figures. He ran a very good race, and showed he could get the distance. He has very little negatives, but what scares me away from him is his 4/26 work over a strip he supposedly loves (1:01 for 5 panels, breezing); contender, but I'll try to beat him.
BORREGO: This horse has a respectable class disadvantage. He has never won a stakes race, and has not taken to the surface well to boot. Hank Greenberg has voiced his support for this one in the past; have fun, Hank.
BIRDSTONE: 50-1 off one bad race? He worked five panels in :58 2/5 over a good track. Has two Derby winners in his paternal pedigree; a definite contender in the mud.
READ THE FOOTNOTES: The wild card in this field. Will not contend, but he IS the fastest horse out of the gate, and that may throw a few horses off their games...
SMARTY JONES:...like this one. Has not shown the ability to rate in his six previous races, and that may pose a problem. His worktab is impressive, and this IS a horse that is the real deal, I just don't see the race setting up for him; no more than an exotics must.
CASTLEDALE: The SA Derby may have been a fluke, it may not. Either way, he closed like a truck late. However, none of his works have been over this track, and I'm not sure how he'll take to it; tough call.
POLLARD'S VISION: He carried 114 in the ILL Derby, he carries 126 here. 12-pound increase is very drastic; fear his speed will be compromised by it.
TAPIT: Not a fan. The post is bad, his early fractions have been mediocre to be kind, and he has a frontrunner, Quinton's Gold Rush, breaking two paths outside him. Not sold.
PRO PRADO: Has a closing kick, his works are okay, but in his only start at CD, he finished a well-beaten fourth to The Cliff's Edge; just like others a tad more.
QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH: See St. Averil.
Fast Track
Wimbledon
Imperialism
Smarty Jones
The Cliff's Edge
Off Track
Action This Day
Birdstone
Friends Lake
Song of the Sword