Derby Analysis

[cj]

Its posted on my site, just remember, you get what you pay for... :D:D:D

I'd love some comments though!

Craig's Derby Analysis (http://users.skynet.be/cjmilkowski/subpages/analysis.html)

[andicap]

One comment: you mention Castledale is a dont use becaue of one good race before the Derby. If my recollection serves me, Charismatic had the exact same pattern and maybe War Emblem.

These are 3 yr olds who can hold their form over 2 or 3 races and while the races might be anomolies, they might also mean the horse is coming to hand as it did with Charismatic.

Castledale has a wonderful %E figure going for him....race average of 51.30 and you're looking for someone BELOW that average in the Derby for the most part. But not too low or they'll be too far back.
Castledale's is 51.23 Read the Footnotes is 51.29.
I'm down to my 5 contenders now -- this is before any real pace analysis.
Lionheart, Read the Footnotes, Castledale, Cliff's Edge, and Pollard's Vision. Read will likely be one of my two keys

I'm not afraid of Read the Footnote' layoff. He's got a great workout line according to HTR's excellent new workout number. One of the top WO numbers in the race (the number is a good longshot indicator when coupled with other positive factors)

I disagree that he will be a wiseguy horse and take money. I think just the opposite: Everyone will buy into that Derby layoff trend and avoid him. Tapit will be the wise-guy horse because of Dickinson. I'm leery of Tapit -- he's eligible to improve big-time, but he has a lot to do and other horses in front of him are also eligible to move up as well.

This is just for purposes of win betting and keying in exacta. I never do get that ultra-longshot that finishes in the money each year. I may try someone's "grinder" theory. R

[cj]

My problem with Castledale wasn't as much the one big race, but that the big jump up was still a cut below the top contenders in here.

Charasmatic did indeed run the big one before the Derby, but I don't recall if he had matched that earlier in his career. War Emblem had run very big in the allowance race before his Illinois Derby win, which was why I picked him to beat Repent that day.

Read the Footnotes is a very tough call, the toughest for me in this race. In a 20 horse field, you have to narrow it down. If this guy drifts high, I'd rethink my position. Jim Quinn loving him is what scared me :)

[Bubbles]

There is a 50-50 chance of rain on Saturday, there is a possibility for an off track. And if it rains, I like Action This Day a lot. On April 22nd, at this track, he blazed six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 in the slop, in what was classified as a breeze. And he's 30-1 ML. If it rains, he cannot be discounted.

[schweitz]

I hope your wrong about Castledale--last race improvement came on only his second start on dirt and Valdivia lost the whip about 1/8 pole--bred to run all day and I hope to see another big figure jump saturday.

[howardjim]

I've got a headache.Risking censure,I am taking the Blue Grass, Arkansas and Illinois Derbies at face value and discounting all the what ifs and assorted valid concerns, to this end:

WIN:The Cliff's Edge
Pro Prado
Borrego
PL/SHOW:above plus
Lion Heart
Smarty Jones
Pollard's Vision

I'll construct exacta/tri/super tickets accordingly and take 12/1+ on all to win and reverse exotics with Lion and Smarty on top. Best of trips and a safe journey to all.

[Valuist]

I agreed w/most of it, especially Smarty Jones. I also felt the pace in the Arky Derby was on the softer side, so I upgraded both Borrego and Pro Prado, Smarty Jones will not be in front of Lion Heart and if they go fast, he's in trouble. Also agree on both NY bred layoff horses and the 2 Mandella BC Juvie horses. The horses I'm inclined to disagree on are Tapit and Castledale. Some are questioning the Blue Grass #; I think the Wood is more shaky. The owner of The Cliffs Edge intentionally dodged the Wood because he felt that field was better than the Blue Grass field. The more I look at Castledale, the more difficult it is to knock him. He's bred to run all day, has the right style, and he's never been better.

Re: that other post on the Withers, if Forest Danger is 3-5 I will be tossing him. He might win but he looks like a great bounce candidate...coming off a 110 and stretching out to a mile.

Andicap-you want a bomber-grinder? How about Pro Prado. I like to look for horses who's connections would be happy to hit the board. I caught tris in 2001 using Invisible Ink and 1990 with Pleasant Tap at around 45-1. I think Pro Prado will be in that neighborhood, he'll be gaining late and he's bred to run all day.

[Niko]

I thought it was a top notch analysis.
The great thing is we all have opinions.
Usually I'd throw Cliffs Edge because of his big last race (I wasn't excited when I saw the number) but he's different than Ten Most Wanted and some other big tops.
The reaseon: He has a race in his 2 year old season that is very good compared to the rest of the field and he can still win if he regresses a couple lengths. His workout after his last may be a good sign.
I'll send more money after him if he goes off at 4-1 or higher like he might.
Limehouse I also liked and was really disappointed in the draw.
I agree with you on Castledale. War Emblem had two of the best numbers in the Derby and Charasmatic and peaked a few races back and hit a new top before the Derby, much different than Castledale.
But I could be completely wrong.
I don't know what to make of Minister Eric and I feel Action this Day may be sitting on a good pattern to hit the tri's at a nice price.
I'm backing off Pollard a little bit. Borrego will be overbet but The Sheets and Thorograph like the horse so a good candidate for an in the money finish that I'll leave out.
I hope your right on Madcape Escapade because she won't be in my double tickets.
Maybe I'll get lucky like last year.

[kingfin66]

I like the analysis, especially the part about Borrego. I honestly don't quite follow the theory about the lifetime bounce regarding Read the Footnotes. In my opinion, he is the toughest call in the race. Rock Hard Ten would have also been a difficult call as you noted.

Here is a question for you, Valuist, and anybody else who thinks the pace in the Arkansas Derby was "soft." Why? The pace was 71.60. The pace in other preps: BlueGrass 71.00; Tampa 71.80; Lexington 72.00; Illinois 72.60; San Felipe 71.00; Santa Anita 71.00; Lousiana 70.60 (that was fast); Florida 71.40; Holy Bull 72.40; Wood 71.40; Fountain of Youth 71.20; Lane's End 71.40.

It is a slower pace than the 71.00s but is very in line. The race was also run on the mud. I don't find the pace soft all. When I look at pace I look to see if a particular pace really helped or hurt a horse. A classic example is last year's Arkansas Derby (69.80), won by Sir Cherokee. Recall that Sir Cherokee jumped from an 80 to a 106 with a lot of help from the very fast pace.

Good analysis and good luck on Saturday.

[BeatTheChalk]

I am completely confused !! Rain likely ... monster field...trouble
for sure .. and I end up on the floor petting the dog .. asking her
what she thinks !! Castle has so many colors in his pedigree ..it
is scary. This horse is bred to be KING OF THE WORLD ..will he
win ? Hell I dont know ! I am gonna run the race through
Aodds and then let Thoromation rock and roll. I will say this...
There is less media hype for this race..than I can ever recall...
Ergo .. maybe a favorite will win this hand. As for me and my
money - gonna pretty much Stand Aside .. and toss dollars
hither and yon. Oh ..Borrego is as well bred as any hoss in this
thing .. BUCKPASSER is in the chart TWICE. I will say no more

[Valuist]

Kingfin-

Here's why. Whenever in doubt on the pace of a race, chart it out. It takes time, but its worth it. Here's how the Arky Derby charts out, with the number showing lengths behind the leader after the 1/2, 3/4 and finish:

Smarty Jones 0.5 0.0 0.0
Borrego 2.25 2.25 1.5
Pro Prado 8.75 7.25 3.0
Harvard Ave 4.25 4.75 6.5
Purge 0.0 hd 7.25
Mambo Trn 2.0 2.25 10.5
Shadowland 2.0 2.0 11.5
Mr. Jester 9.25 8.75 18.75

We have 5 horses w/in 2.5 lengths of the leader at the half and after 6f. Borrego and Pro Prado are the only ones who gained in the final call. In a fast paced race, the field will be gapped-out big time, and the plodders are passing horses late. Compare that chart to the Blue Grass:

The Cliffs Edge 13.5 7.0 0.0
Lion Heart 0.0 0.0 0.5
Limehouse 1.0 2.5 6.5
Mustanfar 3.5 3.5 10.25
Breakaway 15.0 8.5 12.0
Action this Day 11.0 7.5 13.5
Prchnatthebr 2.0 3.5 30.5

Look at how strung out this field was. Cliffs Edge was already 13.5 lengths behind after 4 furlongs. Whats interesting is that Lion Heart WASNT quitting; look at how the rest of the field was tossing in the towel EXCEPT The Cliffs Edge who made up 7 lengths. There was some debate about the teletimer for the final fraction in the Blue Grass but it does look like the top 2 did accelerate.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm glad you see my picks as possible! That is encouraging- Pro, Borrego, Limehouse. / Birdstone being the slowest- Any opinion on whatm happens if it rains a lot and the track is not sealed? (They unsealed it last year friday night!

[Speed Figure]

2004 Derby Power Figures.
PWR1 PRB O/U Fair Odds ML Pace Call Final Time PWR2
01. Lime House EP5 108 0.7% -2.5 99/1 30/1 1:10.6 2:01.2 99
02. Song of the Sword P3 116 6% +2.8 15/1 30/1 1:11.8 2:01.8 105
03. Lion Heart E8 116 6% -3.0 15/1 10/1 1:10.1 2:00.0 106
04. Action This Day S1 105 0.7% -2.5 99/1 30/1 1:11.6 2:02.6 95
05. Wimbledon EP4 89 0.7% -5.5 99/1 15/1 1:10.6 2:02.7 84
06. Friends Lake P3 105 0.7% -5.5 99/1 15/1 1:11.5 2:02.3 97
07. Minister Eric S4 99 0.7% -2.5 99/1 30/1 1:10.8 2:02.2 91
08. Master David EP5 111 3% -4.6 30/1 30/1 1:11.2 2:01.1 106
09. St.Averil P2 95 0.7% -2.5 99/1 30/1 1:11.4 2:02.9 90
10. Imperialism S0 113 5% -1.2 20/1 15/1 1:11.6 2:01.2 109
11. The Cliff's Edge S0 131* 18% -2.0 9/2 9/2 1:11.5 1:59.9 121*
12. Borrego P4 121* 10% +1.0 9/1 20/1 1:11.2 2:00.5 112*
13. Birdstone EP6 86 0.7% -1.2 99/1 50/1 1:10.9 2:03.7 77
14. Read The Footnotes EP6 89 0.7% -6.9 99/1 12/1 1:10.7 2:03.1 81
15. Smarty Jones EP7 120* 9% -9.1 10/1 9/2 1:10.8 2:00.2 111*
16. Castledale P2 114 5% -1.2 20/1 15/1 1:11.2 2:00.8 109
17. Pollard's Vision EP5 120* 9% +4.3 10/1 20/1 1:11.6 2:01.2 109
18. Tapit P2 117 7% -4.1 12/1 8/1 1:11.6 2:01.0 111*
19. Pro Prado S2 129* 15% +11.8 6/1 30/1 1:12.3 2:00.8 120*
20. Quintons Gold Rush EP7 108 0.7% -4.0 99/1 20/1 1:11.4 2:01.7 102

My top contenders have an * next to there figures.
PWR1 is based on the horses pace line.
PWR2 is based on my fractional pace & final times.
I'm looking for LONGSHOTS!!!!!
Good Luck.......

[Speed Figure]

2004 Oak Power Figures.
PWR1 PRB O/U Fair Odds ML Pace Call Final Time PWR2
01.Ashado EP7 101 5% -15.0 20/1 4/1 1:11.1 1:49.7 94
02.Hollywood Story S1 99 3% -1.7 30/1 20/1 1:10.7 1:49.2 95
03.Island Sand EP5 107* 8% +4.8 11/1 30/1 1:10.5 1:48.4 101*
04.Halfbridled EP4 104 6% -12.1 15/1 9/2 1:10.8 1:48.8 100
05.House of Fortune EP6 117* 17% +5.9 5/1 8/1 1:11.1 1:48.0 111*
06.Madcap Escapade EP8 98 3% -22.0 30/1 3/1 1:10.7 1:49.6 91
07.Silent Sighs EP8 103 5% -9.2 20/1 6/1 1:10.4 1:48.5 99
08.Victor U.S.A. E5 112* 12% +0.9 8/1 8/1 1:12.0 1:49.3 107*
09.A.P.Adventure P4 101 5% -6.1 20/1 8/1 1:10.8 1:49.1 97
10.Last Song EP5 112* 12% +7.3 8/1 20/1 1:10.6 1:48.5 101*
11.Class Above E4 102 5% -0.3 20/1 20/1 1:10.5 1:48.7 98
12.Stellar Jayne S0 113* 12% +8.8 8/1 30/1 1:11.9 1:49.2 107*

If madcap wins she can have it.

[BIG HIT]

My pick to win derby is SONG OF THE SWORD has spd inproveing and pace is to.Trouble lr and is breeding suit's if off trk.And great post position.GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[chickenhead]

Don't sleep on Castledale. Forget The Genius, Mullins is a Wizard.