Arlington Million Day

[Tom]

Lots of good turf races this Saturday.
Hope is doesn't rain.

Play along?

I'll start with the 1st - 7 furlongs, poly.

Ghetto Cat - 3rd of a layoff, improved in the last, has won at a mile at AP
Has won almost a third of his poly race- 8 exacta finished from 19 starts on it.

5-2 Space Traveler didn't get the job done off the big drop last time.
Sea of Change looks like good runner up, 7 place/show from 11 poly starts.

[Valuist]

In reading about the Beverly D, an interesting point at the bottom of this article, as Dandino, the defending champ of the St. Leger, is said to need more conditioning. As for the Beverly D, I don't think we will see anything close to 6-1 on Just the Judge. A yielding course for today's races, even if there's no more rain, the ground will not be rock hard and should suit the Euros. 40% chance of rain for Saturday.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/usa-euro-charline-team-fear-just-the-judge/1704486/related/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

[Some_One]

Interesting note, however Dettori is making the trip from the UK mainly for that race, yes he has other mounts, but mostly for Ward because he's already there IMO. I don't think the connections would send Dettori if they weren't all that serious.

[Redboard]

Race 7, over 13 panels on the grass, has a bunch of interesting value plays. Last year’s first and second place finishers of this race are back and should get plenty of play, which should leave everyone else inflated.

#6 Hardest Core is coming off three straight wins on the turf with speed figures as good as anyone else in the race, is listed at 20-1. Has done well on the soft too.

#9 The Eye of The Storm, O’Brien’s 4-yr-old is coming off a G3 win in Ireland going counter-clockwise and is a fat 6-1.

So much of this will depend on just how soft that turf is going to be.

[BIG49010]

The Secretariat is going to be an interesting race, just wondering how good or bad the American Derby really was. Everyone seems to have down graded the race?

Anyone do any actual timing of those two races at a mile and 3/16ths?

If your wondering what I am talking about take a look at the times recorded for Divine Othh and I'm Already Sexy then look at the Beyers?

[QTwithTQ]

I spent a little time working out the Arlington Million All Stakes Pick Four - starting in the 7th race - and it is shaping up to be a good one. There are certainly some horses that can win at a price. After a quick initial run through, my ticket is a 5x3x4x3 ticket ($.50 = $90). Needless to say, it needs some work tomorrow morning after I get a better read on the weather and after scratches are announced. I would like to whittle that down a bit so I can increase the wager. I expect this P4 to have a better payoff than the Saratoga Alabama Stakes P4.

There's been fantastic coverage on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary (http://thoroughbredracing.com) all week, including Simon Rowlands' (head of R&D at Timeform) analysis of the European contingent in the Million (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/obrien-bidding-perform-arlington-million-conjuring-trick-magician) , a chat with trainer Charlie Hills about Just The Judge (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/british-raider-just-judge-out-give-hills-much-needed-lift-arlington) , and some stories about jockey's Colm O'Donoghue (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/irish-oaks-win-seals-odonoghues-return-ballydoyle-elite) and Ryan Moore (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/analysis-could-ryan-moore-be-worlds-finest-jockey) . Must read before as you finalize those tickets.

[Valuist]

Here's the video of the Singapore Airlines Int'l Cup, in which Smoking Sun (2nd) and Side Glance (5th) both ran. Pretty impressive close by Smoking Sun, who's the 7. Interesting that the announcer is calling a different name for the winner than the name listed in the DRF: Dunboyne Express.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5VllSFPujk

[Valuist]

In 30 years of betting the Million day cards and the Breeders Cup, there's one thing that can't be forgotten: the "second tier" Europeans often times out perform their more highly touted comrades. You have the top tier Euros, who are here strictly based on their performance; often times you have what appear to be lesser Europeans who come over because they can (and NEED) to run on Lasix.

[Tom]

AP Race #5

What a terrible race!
Only the :3: and :7: have won a turf sprint.
The 2 comes off a series of 2 furling races....what the heck?
But,,,,,he picks up a 22% rider today.
:4: has a good turf record, and is 29% route to sprint.

:7: 9-5
:3: 10-1
:4: 5-1

[GaryG]

8th Secretariat
:4: GENERAL JACK

9th Beverly D
:5: STEPHANIE'S KITTEN

10th Arlington Million
:2: SMOKING GUN

[biggestal99]

You have the top tier Euros, who are here strictly based on their performance; often times you have what appear to be lesser Europeans who come over because they can (and NEED) to run on Lasix.

They don't NEED Lasix to control bleeding. They NEED Lasix to compete on equal terms with their North American brethren. One only has to look at Gailo Chop, ran WITHOUT vitamin L in the American Derby, and finished a flat 4th. Back in his native France yesterday pulled down a G2 at Deauville.
The use of raceday Lasix improves performance in most modern TBs.

Allan

[dirt]

7th #5

8th # 6-9

9th #1

10th # 7-2

11th #4

[Tom]

AP Race #5

What a terrible race!
Only the :3: and :7: have won a turf sprint.
The 2 comes off a series of 2 furling races....what the heck?
But,,,,,he picks up a 22% rider today.
:4: has a good turf record, and is 29% route to sprint.

:7: 9-5
:3: 10-1
:4: 5-1


Make that AP Race #2

[Tom]

AP Race #3

The :7: 3 for 5 over this grass, and 50% turf lifetime.
Gets Javier today, a 29% J/T combo.

:8: and :4: for the bottom of the exactas.

[Capper Al]

Trackman -- My selections -- Trainer long shot

r1: 4-11-1-5; 4-5-2-11; 8
r2: 7-5-1-6; 5-7-1-8; 3

looking for odds in r1 for #8 and #3 in r2 to play. This is a test.

[JustRalph]

:5: Up with the Birds.........

Wires em..........in the Million

[MutuelClerk]

Race 7 Big Kick

Race 8 Adelaide

Race 9 Just The Judge

Race 10 Smoking Gun

p4 39-12679-12910-23 40.00 .50cents


Good luck to all.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

AP Race #3

The :7: 3 for 5 over this grass, and 50% turf lifetime.
Gets Javier today, a 29% J/T combo.

:8: and :4: for the bottom of the exactas.

Taking value with the :1a: and Florent in the irons sparked a win at the same distance last out.

Class is a big concern here, but I see the :1a: rolling late.

:1: :7: :11:

[Tom]

I'll pass the 4th.....

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'll pass the 4th.....

Likely smart.

Taking a small swing at a W/P on the :8: Tender May.

[Tom]

Passing the 5th as well - I never play races that are about distances of the main contenders come from about races.

About means guess.

Minor league all the way.
Main reason I never play AP any other day - minor league turf track. :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[Redboard]

R6: WP #7 Mcq 15/1
R7: WP #9 Eye Of The Storm 6/1
R7: $0.50 Pick4 2,3,8,9,10,11 / 6,9 / 1,2,4,5,7,11 / 3,4,6 = $108
R8: W #9 Tourist 5/2
R9: WP #2 Euro Charlene 8/1
R10: WP #4 Finnegans Wake 12/1
R11: #10 Lovely Loyree 10/1

[Tom]

Is the Million on TV anywhere beside HRTV?

[Tom]

AP Race 6

:3: Puppy Manners, claimed at Del Mar and shipped here for a stake???
Lots of cheap speed in here, this one has back numbers at GG that would win this.

[Tom]

AP Race 7

What a hodge podge!
Dandino ran well both times he shipped over, both time he shipped in good form.
Not this year.

I'll go with :9: Eye of the Storm for something to root for.
No money to made here. If I was at the tack, I'd go have a beer this race.

[Tom]

:9: had nothingat all - should have tried a claimer. :rolleyes:

I've seen more response from a dead horse being whipped than this slug.

[Si2see]

I'm not one to publicly bash riders, but I swear Luis Saez thought he wasn't supposed to win with the :5: Running in the back of horses is one thing ( which he did ) but how does he think he can make up over 15 lengths only asking the horse in the stretch ??

[stringmail]

Jamie Spencer...no more words necessary.

He is amazing :lol:

I feel bad for the 5, she was probably thinking "get this clown off me"

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Jamie Spencer...no more words necessary.

He is amazing :lol:

I feel bad for the 5, she was probably thinking "get this clown off me"

Just painful.

Horse was much the best in the race and gets 4th.

Thankfully I have a $.20 Super Box on the :2: :5: :7: :9: :10:

Get the :5: up in the Exacta at the very least where she belongs and that is a monster ticket. :bang:

And then to watch a horse you have W/P at optimal odds to see a jock crap the bed. :mad:

[MutuelClerk]

Is the Million on TV anywhere beside HRTV?

WGN I believe starting at 6 est

[AxleLode]

pick 3
8) :1: , :6: , :9:
9) :2: , :5: , :6:
10) :3: , :5:

[gm10]

playing a pick 5

9 (6 7)

2 5 (1 4 7 9 11)

3 5 6 (1 2 7)

3 7 9 (6 8)

5 7 10 (3 9)

Backup selections are between brackets ... up to 2 backup winners are allowed. GOOD LUCK!

[BettinBilly]

Busted my butt to get home and do some capping and just got here. Does not leave much time, but I'll do my best....looking at race 10 now. Better late than never.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Firing my shot in the Alabama.

:4: Win

:1: :4: :6: EX

Throw in a mix of :8: and :9:

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

I'm going :3: :5: cold exacta

[Tom]

I tried the :6: int he Alabama - got a terrible ride by a block head size 2 hat.
Not much of a race to begin with, might as well take the price and hope they grab. :rolleyes:

Arlington Mil - :2:

All in all, glad it is about over - won't be looking at AP again any time soon.

[garyoz]

Firing my shot in the Alabama.

:4: Win

:1: :4: :6: EX

Throw in a mix of :8: and :9:

Great call on the 4. A little faster pace or little more room on the inside in the stretch I think you would have had it. Hope you saved with the chalk on top in the exacta.

[Tom]

Next time AP has a big racing day, don't tell me about it! :rolleyes:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Great call on the 4. A little faster pace or little more room on the inside in the stretch I think you would have had it. Hope you saved with the chalk on top in the exacta.

No save.

At 24/1 I fired across the board.

Hit the Super, and threw away a number of wagers on hitting big with the :4: .

I took my shot.

Ended up well, but can painfully say: .."what could have been..."

[Some_One]

I was reviewing the charts of Hardest Core's past 3 races (all wins), he's listed as a colt in his first race this year but then 2 weeks later he was listed as a gelding? What's the normal recovery time of that procedure? Based on the performances, I would bet he was gelded during his 13/14 layoff and noone at Parx bothered to disclose it. Another reason I think this should be listed somewhere in the PP's.

[ArlJim78]

Arlington P5 I'm live to 5,7,8,10
Come on 8!

[Tom]

I don't think gelding would move a horse up that much unless it was performed on the far turn.

This horse now gets into the BC Turf? :rolleyes:

[ArlJim78]

Arlington P5 I'm live to 5,7,8,10
Come on 8!
the bad news is I got beat by a hopeless longshot who went gate to wire after never holding the lead at any point in 12 prior races.

the good news is that nobody hit the pick five and with 4 consolation tickets I got back almost $500. whew! could have been much worse.

[Tom]

Nice hit.
Thank God for mediocre racing. :D

[BettinBilly]

Next time AP has a big racing day, don't tell me about it! :rolleyes:

Well, I can understand that. Rushing home as I did to speed handicap the last few races was a complete waste of time. I probably would have had better luck throwing darts at a board and picking those numbers.

[Tom]

That will be my new handicapping method - go to a bar, drink mugs of draft beer while throwing darts. I'll just write down the numbers I hit. :D

[Fingal]

That will be my new handicapping method - go to a bar, drink mugs of draft beer while throwing darts. I'll just write down the numbers I hit. :D
I've always found the mustard stain on the pps method is a winner. ;)

[letswastemoney]

Hardest Core is a nicely bred *former Darley horse. I didn't bet, but it's not the biggest surprise.

[letswastemoney]

Hardest Core is a nicely bred *former Darley horse. I didn't bet, but it's not the biggest surprise.I was mistaken and thought he was owned by Darley because of his breeding and former trainer.

In any case, Hardest Core ran well in the past and only lost to good horses such as Balance the Books and Stormy Len last year. I have no idea why the previous owner gave up on him. Think of all the stud fees they're missing out on.

[salty]

I don't think they are, he is a gelding.

[letswastemoney]

I don't think they are, he is a gelding.The new owner gelded him. Under McLaughlin last year, he was definitely a colt. I bet him a few times back then, so I remember.

[salty]

Right, but he was gelded then ran two back to back great races, then this huge one. You think he would have been the same without being gelded?

[iceknight]

This story mentions the gelding timeline.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/86815/hardest-core-makes-jump-in-arlington-million
It is also a nice story about a small mom and pop operation from Pennsylvania.

[Tom]

So the PP information two back is wrong. Would you expect competency from EB?

And, ironically, a GELDING gets a free pass into a BREEDER'S cps race.

[Grits]

This story mentions the gelding timeline.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/86815/hardest-core-makes-jump-in-arlington-million
It is also a nice story about a small mom and pop operation from Pennsylvania.
Fewer still knew the story of his owners, the Bentley family—residents of Unionville, Pa., who own a two-horse stable and purchased the runner as a 30th birthday gift for their son, Andrew, who was born with Down syndrome.

Andrew is our biggest racing fan! When he looks through the condition book he can spot a race and when he looks through the program he can spot a winner in many cases, and I'm just very proud of Andrew's continued interest in racing," Greg Bentley said. "It's just another example of believing in people and what they can accomplish given the chance."

They bought Andrew a winning birthday gift. Congrats Hardest Core and the Bentley family.. glad they're having such a joyful time. Thank you for posting the story, Iceknight. <3

[Valuist]

If someone told me 24 hours ago that Euro Charline and Hardest Core would both be going off at approximately 11-1, I wouldn't have believed either one. Euro Charline was 5-1 in the UK bet shops and was a huge overlay. OTOH, the bet shops had Hardest Core at no less than 40-1. It would've been hard to imagine Hardest Core going off below 25-1. At 11-1, somebody had pounded him.

[iceknight]

They bought Andrew a winning birthday gift. Congrats Hardest Core and the Bentley family.. glad they're having such a joyful time. Thank you for posting the story, Iceknight. <3 You are welcome grits, it was too good not to share! I noticed that part about the gift to their son too. A great gift that is now got them a seat in the Breederscup! :) :)