kingfin66
05-01-2004, 01:36 PM
I am posting this update from an e-mail I received from ITS. The analysis is free and was e-mailed to me, so I am assuming that there are no copyright issues, etc.
KENTUCKY DERBY 2004 HANDICAPPING MAGIC UPDATE
Friday April 30, 2004
Las Vegas
Dear Handicapper and Handicapping Magicians:
Well, just when you thought a complicated race couldn't get any more complicated, there have been three late developments.
Two of those developments are scratches-the 5, Wimbledon, and the 9, St. Averil have been scratched.
The third development is that this morning, Churchill was sloppy. So there may be an off track tomorrow.
If you remember from my main analysis, I was looking for both the 5 and the 9 to provide some pressure for Lion Heart. Without them in the race, the horses that can provide pressure if Lion Heart puts down a 46 and change and a 110 and change are the 14, Read The Footnotes, if the fractions from the one turn Aqueduct mile are legitimate-which is not certain, and the 20, Quintons Gold Rush, who is breaking from another zip code.
I know this may seem counter-intuitive, but I think that Lion Heart has a better shot in the race IF THOSE HORSES PROVIDE PRESSURE.
Why?
Well, the other horses will be further back. If Churchill is sloppy, they will have a tougher time. If it comes up good or muddy, the closing horses typically do better, but being further back will bring the luck factor-avoiding traffic and getting a good trip-into play.
IF THOSE HORSES DO NOT PRESSURE LION HEART, Mike Smith may attempt to throttle down the speed to conserve the horse. One of two things may happen in that case. One, Lion Heart will try to steal the race. He has the numbers to do so.
More likely, if the pace gets throttled down to a 46 and big change or 47 and 111 and small change, then there are several other horses that can be in a pressing mode-the 1, Limestone, the 6, Friends Lake, the 8, Master David, the 12, Borrego-who will be short closing, and 15, Smarty Jones-who if he can make a short close can be very dangerous.
By the way, for those of you using The Master Magician software, that is why the race goes from Neutral to Pressured when you scratch the 5 and 9.
So, although this may seem counter-intuitive, if Lion Heart gets an easy pace, and the track is good or muddy, the closing horses will be at an advantage.
My betting will probably be the basically the same as outlined in the original analysis. I was intending to use the 3, Lion Heart-he is the Fulcrum, and in one scenario can steal the race. I have a short closer, the 12, Borrego, a deep closer, the 19, Pro Prado, and the reversal winner (again, depending on prices probable win bets), and the 15, Smarty Jones (on numbers, the 'best' horse).
I'm still going to be using and betting the 13, Birdstone, who won its first start at Saratoga in the mud by 12 lengths and still figures to be an enormous price. Yes, if it runs one of the last two races, it will pig up the track. If it runs the Champagne, that's what I'll be drinking after the race.
The horse that may move up on an off track is the 17, Pollard's Vision. That horse has a 12 length blowout win in the slop. Those of you who know my work know that I don't give a whole lot of credence to breeding, but even I know that Carson City and Mr. Prospector are premier off track sires. Looking at the Ultimate Sire Ratings in the Handicappers Daily-provided by Dan Serra-the horse earns a 263 which is enormous. Plus, it has a very nice Plus 2 in its last race. Now, I know that was earned in pretty easy spot in the Illinois Derby, but this horse may move up on an off track.
Depending on the prices, I may work the 17 into some exotics if the track comes up wet.
For example, I will have a trifecta part wheel with the 12, 13, 15, 17 and 19 on top, the 3 in the middle (Fulcrum), and the 12, 13, 15, 17, and 19 in the third spot. A nice $20 ticket for a $1 trifecta part wheel, with a lot of potential.
Again, a messy race, made even messier by the potential track conditions and a very complex and subtle pace scenario.
Hope you've found this interesting and helpful. Please let me know your comments, and be sure to do your work on the race.
Wishing you all the luck in the world,
All the best,
Michael
kingfin66
05-01-2004, 01:37 PM
Thursday, April 29, 2004
Las Vegas
Dear Handicapper and Handicapping Magicians:
Well, it's that time of year again. The 2004 Kentucky Derby is only two days away. For the last two weeks, people who couldn't tell a thoroughbred from a burro have been asking me who I like in the Kentucky Derby.
When I had time to explain, I would give a serious answer. It's another horse race! Ok, Ok, I know, it's the Run for the Roses, the most exciting 2 minutes in sport, and on and on. I've been to Derbys, and yes, they are exciting.
From an investment point of view, it's still just another horse race.
So for those of you who have studied my work and have asked me about the Derby, here's my thinking. This will be pretty much a stream-of-consciousness that mirrors my process in handicapping the race. I hope you'll find it interesting.
You know, people call me an expert, and that's fine, but look. Experts don't know for sure how a race will run. Most experts just can't bring themselves to say 'I don't know'.
Not this one. There's a heck of a lot I don't know. I wouldn't give you 3 to 5 that I'm sitting in this chair.
Well, if you wanted to pick a perfect race to hear me say 'I don't know' about 20 times, here it is.
Let's look at the type of investment this year's Derby presents. We have 20 horses. There are practically whole cards in Northern California that don't have 20 horses running. And they're 3 year olds. Never gone the distance before. 17 of them have run against one or more horses in this race.
Talk about a handicapping quagmire.
Now, for those of you who know my work, know that I will sometimes relish races that are wide open, with the proviso that you MUST find value and you must look at this as a speculative wager. I had the feeling from the very beginning that such would be the case with the 2004 Derby, and as I began to study the race, that initial reaction was confirmed.
Well, let's take a look.
FULCRUM
The first thing I do is to look for the Fulcrum Horse-in this race it's the 3 horse, Lion Heart. The 5, Wimbledon, comes close to being tied, but a neck is a neck, so Lion Heart it is.
The Fulcrum Pace is 111 and 1. For those of you not familiar with the Fulcrum concept, and as a refresher for those of you who are, this is not meant to predict what the actual pace will be, but to set a pace against-at a minimum-the others must have shown the ability to compete. This is not usually an issue in a race with high quality horses such as this one. In this race, the 1 Limestone didn't run well against a 111 and 1 but won against a 112, Song of the Sword, the 2, has never run against anything that fast. The 13, Birdstone had trouble in his race the one time he was asked to meet that pace. Other than those three, there are no Fulcrum issues in the race.
PACE SCENARIO
To look a little closer into the pace scenario, it seems to me that Lion Heart is a confirmed Early horse. This is not rocket science. In every race except its first start, it was on the lead at the first call, second call, and stretch. If Lion Heart needs to, it can put down a 46 and change in the half mile of a route, and a 110 and small change in the three quarters time.
The only horses that have been on the lead near that pace are the 5, Wimbledon, and the 14, Read the Footnotes. Wimbledon only ran at that pace once, and 14 did it at a one turn mile at Aqueduct. Will they challenge Lion Heart? Hard to say for sure.
Among the pressing horses, the 9, St. Averil and the 20, Quintons Gold Rush, can press against that pace.
This is neither a Lone Early scenario, nor a really pressured scenario, with a gaggle of horses wanting the lead. I look at it as a Neutral race.
It's possible, of course, that Lion Heart could get an uncontested lead and slow the pace down, but I don't think that's likely. Even if the 5 and 14 don't challenge early, Lion Heart should feel a little pressure. If not, he becomes a danger to steal the race.
REVERSALS AND NUMBERS
Those of you who attended last year's Quantum Leap Seminar or saw the tapes know that I like to look for 'reversals' in a race. It was the key to my selection of Funny Cide last year-if you remember Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran 1-2 in the Wood, with Empire Maker just beating Funny Cide. Empire Maker had the top PPF in the race, followed closely by Funny Cide. Let's see, Empire Maker was about 2-1 and Funny Cide was about 12-1. A no brainer.
In this race, there are 17 horses that ran against each other in one of the following races: the Blue Grass, Lexington, Santa Avocado Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Arkansas Derby.
In these distance races, I like to focus on the Projected Power Fractions. The top PPF from the horses' last race belongs to the undefeated Smarty Jones. Looking at the difference between his PPF and the Fulcrum Horse, Lion Heart's PPF of 38 and 2 (equivalent of 31 and 3), Smarty Ran a Plus 4.
That was in the mud at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby. Looking to the race behind that, the Rebel, he gets a Plus 9. That is quite a number in this field.
The horses that ran right behind him were the 12, Borrego, and the 19, Pro Prado. Borrego gets a Plus 2 from the top race, and Pro Prado gets a Plus 1, with a nice Plus 2 right behind it, also in the Rebel. For those of you playing along at home, that must mean that Smarty Jones beat Pro Prado by 7 in the Rebel.
I'm not sure where Smarty Jones will be early in the race. Although his style is that of an Early Presser, the fractions might put him back a bit further. Can he run from off the pace? We have no way of knowing, as all of its races have been run from very close to the pace.
Getting back to the numbers, we have Smarty Jones with that nice Plus 4 on its last race PPF. And a Plus 9 right behind it. The 10, Imperialism, earned a Plus 6 and a Plus 8 but both of those on the turf, and its dirt lines not so inspiring. Lion Heart actually has a Plus 7, that out of the Hollywood 7 furlong Prevue last year.
The only other big number belongs to a mystery horse. Lucky 13. Nicky Zito's dark horse-Birdstone. In last year's Champagne at Belmont, Birdstone ran a PPF of 30 and 1, making it a strong Plus 7. Can it run back to that? Stay tuned.
FORM CYCLE PATTERNS
Let's look at some layoff patterns.
I'm not going to go through each one-I might not make post time if I do-but here are the highlights. The 6, Friends Lake, and the 14, Read the Footnotes, haven't run in a while. Does it matter? Well, the media sure thinks it does. Who knows? They've both run beautifully after layoffs before. Let the numbers decide.
Among the horses second off a layoff, the highlights are the 3, 8, and 13. Both the 3, Lion Heart, and the 8, Master David, had hard races after their freshenings. Not a great thing. On the other hand, the 13, Birdstone, came off a layoff from October to February to win, then got a breather of 35 days and in its last race, got steadied, ran a bit for two calls, and then started dreaming of oats. That's a good value thing in that the race looks bad, and the horse has a number that makes it competitive in the field. Stay tuned.
Two of the horses that are third off a layoff in the Derby won already-16, Castledale, and 18, Tapit. The 9, St. Averil, a potential presser is third off and should improve over its last race-but if it improves to its next to last race, it only has a PPF of 0, not out of it, but not a world beater.
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON STRUCTURE
So where does that leave us?
With a very, very messy race.
Will I pass? No. I'm going to take a speculative shot at the race.
Who's going to win? Wrong question. Is there some value? Potentially.
On numbers, Smarty Jones has the best. But if I'm looking to use Smarty Jones, the 15, I've got to use the 12, Borrego, and the 19 Pro Prado. I get an Early Pressing Horse (Smarty), a horse that can either press or close, the 12 Borrego, and a Closer in Pro Prado.
My dark horse that I'm going to use in some exotics is the 13, Birdstone. Interesting horse. If it runs one of its last two races, it won't be competitive in the race. But I've noticed an interesting pattern. Birdstone won its first race, then had trouble at the start of its second race, and then won the Champagne at Belmont. It earned a very nice Plus 7. Now, I know that the mile and a sixteenth at Belmont is one turn, but the number is there. After that race, it rested until February, won an allowance at Gulfstream, and then had trouble in the start of its second race. Could it now improve as it did when it won the Champagne? Possibly. At a long price, it will find its way into my exotic bets.
After these horses, there are a slew of horses with Plus 2s and Plus 1s. Seven horses to be exact. That alone makes the race really unclear. Especially if the Arkansas Derby was not a true number due to the mud.
So, in the final analysis, I don't think this is an easy race, either to handicap or to structure exotics.
The way that I handle races like this is to go lightly and to try to make a nice piece of change without putting too much in the race. As it stands now, without knowing what the odds will be, I'm leaning toward using the horses from the Arkansas (15, 12, and 19), in the exotics along with the dark horse, 13, Birdstone. Having said that, several other horses could logically be used.
The most obvious is the 3, Lion Heart, because of the Fulcrum and because of it being the pace setter. If I'm considering using the 3, the 11, The Cliff's Edge, won against the 3 last time, and whether I'll use that or not will depend on the price. I'm not sure what to do with the 16, Castledale, who won the Santa Anita Derby earning a nice Plus 2. The 17, Pollard's Vision troubles me, even though it earned its Plus 2 from an unchallenged lead in the Illinois Derby. I usually like the Wood horses, and a handicapper I respect thinks that the 18, Tap It, is the horse to beat. It has a 0 from the last race, and that's competitive, but how many horses can I use?
One of my favorite structures is to put the Fulcrum Horse in the middle in a trifecta. So, I'll have the 3 in the middle of 4 or 5 horses in the trifecta.
SUMMARY
Hello to those of you who have just scrolled down to find out "Who does Pizzolla like?" You know who you are. Go back and read the analysis first.
As far as win bets, although I think that the 15, Smarty Jones has the best numbers, I probably won't bet him to win unless I get an outrageous 10 or more to one, which I probably won't. The 12, Borrego and the 19, Pro Prado at big prices? Sure. The 13 at a monster price. Sure. Would I bet all three? Yes if the prices are really long.
I'll use those 4 horses in various permutations in the exactas, trifectas and supers. I'll have extra combinations with the 12 and the 19 OVER the 15.
I'll have the 3 horse in the middle of a tri, with the 12, 13, 15, and 19 in the first and third spots and probably in another ticket adding the 11, The Cliff's Edge in the first and third spots. Of course if it finishes Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Cliff's Edge, I cash the tri but it won't pay that well.
I am fishing for real bombs here. I might also have a couple of dollars with exactas using the 17, 16, and/or 9, depending on the prices, with the super long horses.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND A WORD OF WARNING
Please be clear-this is speculating. I will be spreading rather than sharp shooting. If this wasn't the Derby, I would be passing the race. I'm going to be trying to make a score with very little investment. And I have a separate bankroll for this kind of race. If your bankroll is limited, please, please go easy on this race. Make a small bet and enjoy watching the race.
Please do your own work on the race. For those of you who have my email and think I've missed something, or have another perspective let me know. I'll check my emails tomorrow, but if I'm traveling, I might not get back to all of you. (Don't respond to this email as it is only one-way and won't respond).
And if it rains and the track comes up sloppy or muddy, I will either redo the analysis or simply pass the race.
If I score, well, sure it will be nice. If some pig that I haven't considered comes romping home, then I'll lose a little money and I'll get laughed at. There's no real upside to this!
Except that I know that many of you who have studied with me and have looked at the race have asked for some help. So that's my thinking, for what it's worth. I hope that you've enjoyed my ramblings about this year's Kentucky Derby.
With my deepest thanks to all of you for all of your support,
All the best,
Michael
P.S. If I do hit the superfecta, I'll be the one you heard screaming, STAY THAT WAY YOU PIGS, right before the finish line.
P.P.S. Why not take a look at some of the easier looking races on Saturday? There's a lot of 'uneducated' money in the pools of the other races running on Derby Day. You'll be surprised on the prices you can get on some pretty obvious horses! I haven't finished my analysis, but there's a turf race in the 7th at Churchill where the top numbers (the 2 and the 8) are double digits morning line.
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