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View Full Version : Ok...How does the Derby Run? Who wins?


JustRalph
04-28-2004, 11:39 PM
Ok....the card is out..........Let us hear your thoughts.........

I think it is going to be a tough one to call.....but then again.....

PACE MAKES THE RACE........right?

This is a great week.....on the track and here at PA's....

Thanks to PA for providing the forum.

kenwoodallpromos
04-28-2004, 11:55 PM
According to Yahoo! Lousville is forecast for thunderstorms Saturday!

fmhealth
04-29-2004, 03:54 PM
Hi Ralph, after studying the Derby PPs for a week now, here's my conclusion. I'm more confused than usual !!! You can make a reasonable case for more than half the field. If this was a regular race, I'd simply pass & move on. But after 'capping for more than 45 years. I feel compelled to wager.

Sooo, with that said, I'm sticking with my picks made last week. I'm boxing Tapit, who could be a "super-horse" with Smarty, who is as game as they come with Cliff, who if he doesn't bounce off his 111 in the BG could be very tough, with Master. When was the last time that Bobby Frankel has taken such a low-profile before a major race ??

I'll bet a $2 per box & a $1 tri box. Also hook up these 4 with 5 in the Oaks for a OAKS / DERBY D/D. Total bet will be $88. I'll also bet $6 to win on a L/S in the Oaks, Class Above(odds should be around 30-1) & $6 to win on Tapit(odds around 6-1). $100 in action. Let's see what happens.

Best of luck !!!

Dan Montilion
04-29-2004, 04:34 PM
Lion Heart makes the two left turns in front of the others every step of the way. Then while the others are getting a bath Lion Heart gets his picture taken and we all try to figure out what Biancone just said to Bob Costas.................... I think.

Dan Montilion

andicap
04-29-2004, 05:08 PM
I love what Biancone said about lasix -- his horse has never used it so why start now? Who knows how it will effect him. This guy sounds like a good horseman in every positive sense of the way.

(And you say bad things about the French -- oh yeah, so do I)

:p

Niko
04-29-2004, 09:35 PM
Quite a few people on different boards are saying Lion Heart has the best speed and can wire the fied and are pointing to past Derby winners.
I disagree and if the trainers think this will it will help me. Everyone has War Emblem fresh in their mind, I think there's a lot of solid early pace in the race and I'm throwing all the early out this year.
My top 2 picks were
Cliffs Edge and Limehouse. Because of the 1 post I'm looking elsewhere.
Looks like
Cliffs Edge-Minister Eric on top
Exacta/Tri wheel top and bottom: Action this day, Limehouse, Wimbledon(was a throw out but I can't ignore the works) Will add Friends Lake on an off track.
I will throw out Tapit, Lion Heart, Master David and Borrego because I think they'll all be underlays relative to their chances.
Same for Pro Prado for Tri purposes.

David McKenzie
04-29-2004, 10:15 PM
Please note, these are MY selections, not HSH's selections.
HSH is the tool box; I'm the handicapper. I've chosen the contenders and created a Handicapping Object for this specific Event. Also please note, this is designed to interact with live odds So, you'll have to use your own judgment as to altering the Opt%. The probabilities embody jockey and pace. So, any rider changes and/or program scratches which affect the race shape will alter the probabilities. The "C" stands for Contender (subjective).


Kentucky Derby
CD 10 Saturday, May 1, 2004



CD 10 Bet Int=20
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
15 Smarty Jones C 7/2 28.0 $2.52 7.4 3
17 Pollard's Vision C 17 16.3 $5.88 11.4 6
11 The Cliff's Edge 3 11.0 $0.88 -18.7 9
12 Borrego C 17 9.7 $3.50 4.4 10
18 Tapit 6 5.8 $0.81 -9.9 17
3 Lion Heart 8 4.1 $0.73 -7.9 24
19 Pro Prado C 25 4.0 $2.07 0.1 25
8 Master David 10 2.7 $0.59 -7.1 40
14 Read the Footnotes 10 2.7 $0.59 -7.1 40
5 Wimbledon 12 2.3 $0.59 -5.9 45
6 Friends Lake 12 2.3 $0.59 -5.9 45
10 Imperialism 12 2.3 $0.59 -5.9 45
16 Castledale (IRE) 12 2.3 $0.59 -5.9 45
20 Quintons Gold Rush 17 1.0 $0.35 -4.9 99
1 Limehouse 25 1.0 $0.50 -3.0 99
2 Song of the Sword 25 1.0 $0.50 -3.0 99
4 Action This Day 25 1.0 $0.50 -3.0 99
7 Minister Eric 25 1.0 $0.50 -3.0 99
9 St Averil 25 1.0 $0.50 -3.0 99
13 Birdstone 40 1.0 $0.79 -1.5 99

Cont Prob= 58.0 Odds=0.72:1 Book Pct= 37 Dutch= 1.69:1

Bubbles
04-29-2004, 10:33 PM
I see Read the Footnotes surprising people by taking the early lead over Lion Heart. This will take him, and other frontrunners, right out of his game. With 3/8's to go, Smarty will assume the lead, but Wimbledon will be flying at him. Just inside the furlong pole, he takes the lead, but Imperialism charges. At the wire, Wimbledon wins by a neck over Imperialism, who noses Smarty for second.

NOTE: For fast track only!

rokitman
04-29-2004, 11:04 PM
The winner is among these 5 horses:

In alphadiabolical order:

Minister Eric
Pollard's Vision
Quintons Gold Rush
Read The Footnotes
Smarty Jones

Guaranteed.

Guaranty void if D.Wayne Lukas or Bob Baffert are seen wearing sunglasses. That means something sneaky is up. Beware.

JustRalph
04-29-2004, 11:59 PM
Originally posted by Dan Montilion
Lion Heart makes the two left turns in front of the others every step of the way. Then while the others are getting a bath Lion Heart gets his picture taken and we all try to figure out what Biancone just said to Bob Costas.................... I think.

Dan Montilion

I like this scenario too.......but I worried about weather......

:D

JPinMaryland
04-30-2004, 11:06 AM
fmhealth: What facts persuade you that Tapit could be a super horse? He looks nice but that's about it. That race in the Wood was simply nosing past tired horses. Did you see the FL derby footage? He was looking off to the side in that one also. He shies away from traffic in both these races.

This will be a major problem in a 19 horse field. He got real messed up in the FL derby when a horse bore inside on him. He will want to go wide, real wide. Dont do it, there's lots of better value bets here.

brdman12
04-30-2004, 01:16 PM
I like Tapit, but I don't like his post position. He will be too far behind by the time he starts his run. If Master David can sit off the pace a little, and he has an excellent post position, I believe he'll have something left in this race. He should improve off the last race, where he and Tapit had good final fractions.

Master David..Lion Heart..Borrego..Castledale...

delayjf
04-30-2004, 02:23 PM
For what its worth, Tapit's trainer said he ran the FL Derby with a lung infection that he got over just in time for the Wood. Now for the first time he's healthy.

chickenhead
04-30-2004, 02:36 PM
they always claim the horses are sick...bad hoof, sore legs, collic, broken back. Probably all true, but all I assume is that the horse is fragile, so likely to get sick or injured again.

rokitman
04-30-2004, 03:14 PM
What a vile excuse. So which is it, Dickinson? Are you The Dahoss Genius or the guy who ran his horse, off a long layoff, with a lung infection?

fmhealth
04-30-2004, 05:04 PM
JP, I've seen all of Tapits races. His effort in the Laurel Fut. was nothing short of breathtaking !! His run in the Wood I would rate as superb. You're absolutely right about him running with his head to the side. I attribute that to "greenness".

Will he win the Derby, who knows? All I know is that with Dickinson training, Dominguez riding and a good trip. He'll be tough to beat. The two "knocks" against him are his lack of a 100 Beyer & only two starts as a 3 yr old. We'll see on 5/1 if Dickinson has him cranked-up for an arduous 1 1/4 mile marathon.

My bets( that I put in this am at HAW) are a per & tri box with tapit, Cliff, Smarty & Master. I believe the last Derby winner I had was Kauai King with Don Brunfield riding. So you may want to use me as a contrary indicator.

Good luck with whichever steed you go with !!!

JackS
04-30-2004, 08:09 PM
I want to really go out on a limb with the Derby. Plenty of speed by some very nice horses should clue trainers and jockeys on stratigies that may put them in the winners circle. The speed types in this race should really feel the pressure due to the prestige of the race itself. Many trainers may have the feeling that they can win with a little luck. For these reasons, I'm going to try to beat the early speed and the dead enders who will have too many nice horses to overcome in the stretch. There are three horses I'm looking at. All three are at the front of the third tier I.E. behind the two or three chasers of the leader when entering the home stretch. This posisition should put them within an eyeball view of the front end. The three I'm interested in are Borrego, Castledale and Master David. I'll probably toss one of the three with the lowest odds and play both of the others.

dav4463
04-30-2004, 08:38 PM
I like Read The Footnotes to win or place. Play in exotics with Smarty Jones, Master David, Imperialism, Castledale, and Pro Prado. Add The Cliff's Edge if you are scared to leave him out.

keilan
04-30-2004, 08:46 PM
Well Ralph here goes, with Smarty Jones 1st time lasix I'll make him the horse to beat, the other horse I like is Read The Footnotes. I really hope he has fully recovered from the Fountain of Youth, we'll see.

Jeff P
04-30-2004, 08:50 PM
I see LION HEART getting a good trip sitting on or near the lead through moderate fractions and then getting home on top of either THE CLIFF'S EDGE who closes too late or LIMEHOUSE who also gets a good trip near the pace at huge odds.

I'll bet both LION HEART and LIMEHOUSE to WIN.

For fun and a chance at a decent payoff I'll also play the following exacta combinations:

$2.00 3 over both 1 and 11
$1.00 both 1 and 11 over 3

Remember that the Derby is just another horse race. I don't plan on going overboard. There's been many a $5.00 bettor who ends up with $100.00 or more in losing tickets just because it's the Derby. I'm not one of those guys (any more.)

Good Luck to all...

JustRalph
04-30-2004, 08:53 PM
http://www.justralph.com/rain_derby.jpg

Lvx is Louisville..........

PaceAdvantage
04-30-2004, 08:56 PM
And they said it wasn't supposed to rain until late tomorrow afternoon....(probably right before post time)

JustRalph
04-30-2004, 09:03 PM
There gonna get hit with this tonight and again tomorrow.

It should be interesting...........

Zaf
04-30-2004, 09:42 PM
For the first time in my life I may bet three horses to win in a race.

My top pick is Lion Heart, then I like Limehouse. Both should gain good tactical position. I will probaby bet a few bucks on Castledale also.

$50 win Lion Heart
$30 win Limehouse
$20 win Castledale

somethin like dat !

ZAFONIC

bucktron
04-30-2004, 09:57 PM
Call #1

Mike Smith allows Limehouse to gets the lead letting Lion Heart relax into 2nd in the next lane a ½ length off Limehouse.

Master David, Borrego and Pollard’s Vision makeup the 2nd layer approximately 3 ½ lengths off the pace.

Smarty Jones tucks in comfortably behind the 2nd layer 4-5 length off the pace saving ground running along side of Read the Footnotes.

Relaxed at the back of the pack are The Cliff’s Edge and Tapit 11-13 lengths back.


Call #2

Limehouse continues to lead. Lion Heart continues to stalk ½ length off Limehouse (Mikey is content not to heat up the fractions until he feels the heat).

Master David, Borrego and Pollard’s Vision continue to makeup the 2nd layer approximately 3 lengths off the pace with Read the Footnotes moving up to join them.

Smarty Jones still very relaxed remains 4-5 lengths back.

Cliff’s Edge and Tapit’s jockeys, sensing a very average pace, attempt to move up to a 1 ½ lengths off Smarty Jones. One does it fairly easily and one gets caught in traffic.

Top of the Stretch

Mikey presses the button Lion Heart and opens a length on Limehouse. Master David is caught behind Limehouse with no lane and not enough gas in the tank to swing wide and make a run. Pollard’s Vision takes then lane next to Lion Heart for the stretch run (Velazquez beats Espinoza to catbird’s lane). Smarty Jones and Cliff’s Edge are coming hard and fast on the outside. Espinoza (Borrego) looks to split horses.

And The Winner Is !!

Pollard’s Vision in a 35:1 SHOCKER

superfecta
04-30-2004, 11:16 PM
Originally posted by bucktron

And The Winner Is !!

Pollard’s Vision in a 35:1 SHOCKER I hope he's that high,I can use the money:D For those who pay attention the BKOD has been given to Cliffs edge.....

kingfin66
04-30-2004, 11:23 PM
Zito will complain about the track before the race is run and make excuses for both Birdstone (again) and The Cliff's Edge losing the race.

Tuffmug
05-01-2004, 12:07 AM
4 horse box trifecta

Tapit, Action This Day, Minister Eric, and Read The Footnotes

JPinMaryland
05-01-2004, 06:49 AM
Borrego, Imperialism, Smarty. Box it for the trifecta.

depalma13
05-01-2004, 10:18 AM
Originally posted by JPinMaryland
fmhealth: What facts persuade you that Tapit could be a super horse? He looks nice but that's about it. That race in the Wood was simply nosing past tired horses. Did you see the FL derby footage? He was looking off to the side in that one also. He shies away from traffic in both these races.

This will be a major problem in a 19 horse field. He got real messed up in the FL derby when a horse bore inside on him. He will want to go wide, real wide. Dont do it, there's lots of better value bets here.


Someone who saw the same thing I did. When you add that to Swingforthefences running the same race in the Wood that he ran in Tampa and I see a horse who has no shot to win the Kentucky Derby. Tapit is a toss.

andicap
05-01-2004, 04:24 PM
As if anyone cares but

Win on Read the Footnotes and Castledale

Exactas with Smarty Jones and Lionheart over Read and Castledale.

cj
05-01-2004, 04:26 PM
Hope they can surf! :D

Tom
05-01-2004, 04:31 PM
My lungs to win on Lion Heart.

cj
05-01-2004, 04:52 PM
"You bet a horse with a large ass in a field like this, you got yourself a winner."

I hope Limehouse has a large ass!