Bayern to the Travers....

[Thebigguy]

I like this. Makes the race very easy. Bayern either wires or Wicked Strong sits 3rd-4th early and grinds him down. No one else can possibly win this race. Hoping people still bet Tonalist.

[Rex Phinney]

I like this. Makes the race very easy. Bayern either wires or Wicked Strong sits 3rd-4th early and grinds him down. No one else can possibly win this race. Hoping people still bet Tonalist.

Wicked Strong's last race says that sitting 3rd or 4th may not be the way he wins races?

From the looks of the Jim Dandy and the Whitney if Bayern gets anywhere near the lead it's going to be all over.

[letswastemoney]

Using Timeform, the Haskell was a much faster race. I have to think Bayern wins in a fair race.

[Rex Phinney]

Using Timeform, the Haskell was a much faster race. I have to think Bayern wins in a fair race.

All the Jim Dandy did for me was show Tonalist is not as good as I thought he was.

That being said it's the time of year where Baffert runs out of options for 3YO's out here. I don't know if he really thinks Bayern can go that far or handle the track, but where else is he going to go?

[Stillriledup]

"Speed" isn't as good at the Spa, its a more tiring surface......which is a big factor.

[letswastemoney]

All the Jim Dandy did for me was show Tonalist is not as good as I thought he was.

That being said it's the time of year where Baffert runs out of options for 3YO's out here. I don't know if he really thinks Bayern can go that far or handle the track, but where else is he going to go?I just think a lightbulb went off in Bayern's head in the Woody Stephens. From a breeding standpoint, he should be able to go farther.

If Wicked Strong doesn't challenge Bayern early, from what the probables look like, it should be pretty easy for Bayern to conserve energy.

(got this from another forum)

Bayern (Baffert)
Tonalist (Clement)
Wicked Strong (Jerkens)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Commanding Curve (Stewart)
V.E. Day (Jerkens)
Charge Now (Mott)
Ulanbator (Wilkes)
Viva Majorca (Wilkes)

[letswastemoney]

"Speed" isn't as good at the Spa, its a more tiring surface......which is a big factor.If Moreno can do it...

[Redboard]

Tonalist will be the betting favorite, IMO. The Jim D was a prep. The extra furlong will help. There's no doubt he can get the distance.

[zico20]

Lets not kid ourselves. Wicked Strong has no early speed. The jock could whip him coming right out of the gate and he still wouldn't be close to Bayern after a quarter mile. If Bayern can get the mile and a quarter everyone else is running for second. Tonalist has to improve a dozen lengths off his best effort to beat Bayern off his best. Sure looks alot like bayern over wicked strong and tonalist for the trifecta.

Just remember, Baffert said back in February that Bayern was his best 3 yr old. Looks like that is finally coming true.

[1GCFAN]

If Irish You Well runs he will have a shot a part of the ticket or more.

[PhantomOnTour]

Doesn't anyone use a rabbit anymore?
Jerkens or Rice or Clement need someone to keep Bayern honest or it appears to be a waltz around the oval for him.

Still haven't seen the actual field or pp's though

[Tom]

Bayern is 4th at best.

[Thebigguy]

Tonalist will be the betting favorite, IMO. The Jim D was a prep. The extra furlong will help. There's no doubt he can get the distance.
You're joking right???
I pray to the mighty lord he's the chalk.... He has almost no chance to win this race.

[thespaah]

Doesn't anyone use a rabbit anymore?
Jerkens or Rice or Clement need someone to keep Bayern honest or it appears to be a waltz around the oval for him.

Still haven't seen the actual field or pp's though
In scrolling down the posts, I was wondering how long it would take for someone to bring this up.
We don't see this as much anymore.
I remember some trainers referring to rabbits as bush league.
IMO it's kind of a dick move to enter a sprinter or miler with lots of speed in a 10 furlong race where the best horse is the lone speed.
Getting to the Travers, if Bayern is the controlling speed, he wins.
Saratoga is a funny place....The main track seems to produce winners that close in sprints but not in routes. Even if the pace is reasonable.
For example Moreno's splits were 23.67, 23.83,23.81, 24.10, 12.84. Not exactly loping on the lead..Nobody was gaining on the winner until the last 50 yards when Itsmyluckyday closed a bit, but by that time Moreno was ridden out.
Bayern's Haskell win was much the same type performance. Led every call.
Without a main speed contender for Bayern, the Travers sets up well for the colt.

[TheEdge07]

Didnt the great Frankel used a rabbit in a couple of his big races?

[Milkshaker]

Lack of rabbits is a result of the decline in foal crop.

Plenty of "cheap" $100K stakes for these beasts to earn a paycheck in nowadays instead of setting the table for a stablemate.

[Dahoss2002]

I like this. Makes the race very easy. Bayern either wires or Wicked Strong sits 3rd-4th early and grinds him down. No one else can possibly win this race. Hoping people still bet Tonalist.

He could be the best 3 yo this year. I know you do not like Tonalist but I think they run 1-2. What do they have planned for Chrome? I know he won the Derby with ease and he must have waved the doo-doo stick at all the other horses in the race because Wicked Strong is the only one to do anything after that.

[burnsy]

Its harder to ship over and win the Travers than people think. Verrazano won by 10 last year and was no where. The tracks are different and the horses in Saratoga are probably better most years. Bayern has not beaten any world beaters even with the improved performances. Tonalist and Wicked Strong are proven Grade 1 distance horses. If he's lower odds than either of them.....it becomes really hard to bet on him at this distance. His last two are good, but look at those fields. He has never beaten horses like this. If he is chalk, I'll be looking elsewhere.

[Robert Fischer]

Sometimes it's hard to say. A lot depends on how the race goes.

My opinion of Bayern was that he was a top horse, but that he had an issue. He still almost won that Churchill? race in spite of the issue.
I liked him in (i think it was-) the Preakness, but he got wiped out in that race.

Then we got great prices due to players misreading his form in the sprint(vs. rivals like Social Inclusion), and then betting on the super-filly(Untapable) in the Haskel.

Tonalist and Wicked Strong are both obviously very good. Wicked Strong put it all together last time. He needs to do that again, regardless of how the race works out. Tonalist was flat in the Jim Dandy. The best thing about Tonalist in his Jim Dandy performance was that he was fundamentally sound, and was racing at a tactical disadvantage, and perhaps was not dead-fit.

All three of these contenders really need a strong performance here.

[classhandicapper]

There's no one in the likely Travers field that can run with Bayern and live to tell about it. IMO, he's the best horse and he's going to be loose. So the race is entirely about his ability to get the distance. I was not as convinced of his distance abilities by the Haskell as most people. I don't think that was an honest racetrack. I thought the inside path(s) were better. So getting loose on that track had to help carry his speed. So IMO, despite superior ability and a tactical advantage, I could see him coming back at 10F on a honest racetrack.

I see him as price dependent. At a very short price you can takes a stab against him and at longer price you can hope he keeps running.

I also don't think the gap between Tonalist and Wicked Strong is as large as their last race indicates. The blinkers and a more aggressive ride wound up giving Wicked Strong the tactical advantage over Tonalist in a Jim Dandy without much speed. That was clearly a prep though. I expect Tonalist to be sharper and ridden more aggressively in the Travers. I make those 2 very close.

[Tom]

History lesson:

There's no one in the likely _______ field that can run with ______ and live to tell about it.

How many horses can put together three straight to efforts these days?

[letswastemoney]

History lesson:

There's no one in the likely _______ field that can run with ______ and live to tell about it.
How many horses can put together three straight to efforts these days?
California Chrome strung together 4 excellent efforts in a row.

[Tom]

One would have to assume Bayern is as good as CC.
I think that is a stretch.

[Smarty Cide]

Bayern is a beast... but no hes no Chrome..... but really who is? hes the best in the sport right now bar none

[letswastemoney]

Bayern is a beast... but no hes no Chrome..... but really who is? hes the best in the sport right now bar noneFrom a speed figure standpoint, they seem the same. But where Chrome probably has the advantage is versatility in terms of running style.

At this point, I don't think Bayern can stalk and finish as strongly. It looks like he's a loose on the lead router. He can certainly prove me wrong though.