Teach
08-07-2014, 11:11 AM
Race Two:
:1: Star Gazing will likely go off as the prohibitive fave in this allowance route for New York state-breds. I believe this filly deserves to go off the chalk. Yes, I was trying to find ways to beat this 3-year-old Unbridled-bred filly, yet I keep coming back to the word, the horse: Unbridled. Like yo, this was the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner. And Unbridled is the only horse to have his progeny, Grindstone, also win the Kentucky Derby; he did it six years later in 1996. As much as I’d like to find a way to bet against her, I just can’t. In a race where the key question is: Which horse gets the distance?; there are very few alternatives to Sky Gazing. If I were going to try to beat her - and I still might hedge (hedging dilutes) by boxing exactas - I’ll probably use: :6: Dixie Brass. This filly’s dam’s sire is Dixie Brass. Dixie Brass was a router. The lineage, at least on the dam’s side, is there, as are the services of Javier Castellano, the meet’s leading rider. Oh, add to that the fact that the filly broke her maiden at first asking, albeit against 20k claimers. The filly was claimed out of that one by Gary Contessa. Also, Dixie Brass has a solid morning work. There is also :5: Devious Maddy. I see that her dam’s sire was Alydeed, another router. Leah “The Preacher” Gyarmati trains. This filly looks more like a turf horse but she did finish third at a mile against allowance company on the dirt. Taylor Rice is in the irons. It’s your call whom you think can complete a super. I’ll toss in :4: Annie Walker. Mike Hushion is a most capable trainer.
Race Three:
I just don’t know how good this Kitten’s Joy-bred colt may be. We’ll find out, one way or the other, this afternoon. Every time I see Kitten’s Joy, I think turf. Breeders certainly get a high price for his stud services. Yet, this roan colt’s morning works have me befuddled. Mediocre. You’ve probably deduced that my lukewarm pick here (I’m trying to convince myself) is :7: Chief Kitten. Certainly the connections are there: Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Yet, it’s always tough with first-time starters, especially, as in this case, where the colt’s morning work-tab has you wondering; however, Chief Kitten is my pick here in the maiden-special turf route. Others: :2: Animalia; :3: Brother O’Connell; :8: Startup Nation.
Race Four:
In this Birdstone Stakes ultra-marathon to be contested over this distance of one and three-quarters miles for a purse of 100k my pick is :5: Micromanage (he was scratched out of yesterday’s card for this). Class-wise, this Medaglia d’Oro-bred colt stands head and shoulders above the competition, e.g., the Suburban, the Brooklyn, etc. Yet, he’s never gone this far; that makes this unchartered waters. That in itself always poses more questions than answers. Of course, he’s not alone. He does have solid connections: the Repole Stable, Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano. I believe if he gets the distance, he wins. Also: :4: Double Dulce, :2: Irsaal; :3: Seton Hall.
Race Five:
My pick here in this maiden-claiming turf route for New York state-breds is :3: Transplendid. This Gone West-bred filly has finished third four times in nine turf appearances. She seemed to wake up in her last as she dropped in for a tag for the first time in her racing career; she finished third a-length in that one. This appears to be the kind of competition that she should be able to handle. It’s her second start off a layoff. Trainer Phil Serpe is very good with beaten favorites. Javier Castellano is in the irons. Also: :5: The Lady’s Cruisen; :1: Miss Motivation; :8: Saratoga Valley.
Race Six:
My choice in this claiming route is: :1: Q Two. The Dale Romans trainee stretched out and dropped into the selling ranks last time as the overwhelming favorite in a maiden-breaking win. She stays in the claiming ranks but now moves up against winners. I think she can prevail once again despite the class hike. Admittedly this Fappiano-bred colt won his last race in pedestrian times; yet I still believe the colt has the ability to prevail here. Corey Lanerie, who has been lackluster thus far in this Saratoga, meet, reprises the ride. Also: :7: Chrisandlorisposse; :5: Navajo Ca Lo; :4: Golden Nugget.
Race Seven:
My pick in this New York state-bred claiming turf route is :9: Make Your Point. The 3 year-old Mr. Prospector-bred filly was a beaten 7/2 fave in her last. She can make amends here; she cuts back a “teenth”. Two third-place finishes in two tries on the lawn. Jose Lezcano for Phil Serpe. :8: Race and Shine; :7: Tenacious Indeed; :10: Kevin’s Steel.
Race Eight:
Race Eight is a turf allowance sprint. My nod goes to :6: Golden Story. The Medaglia d’Oro-bred colt was bumped at the start in his most recent Ellis Park race and faded at the end; a race in which he did face weaker. A cleaner trip would help this colt’s chances. In a prior start to his last he easily broke his maiden by winning easily in maiden-special company. Javier Castellano is in the irons for trainer Bill Hickey who, by the way, is very good with shippers. Also: :5: Heart Doctor; :4: Defiant; :8: Indian Rain Dance.
Race Nine:
In this mile an one-eighth optional claimer, my choice is: :7: Tetradrachm. I think you can throw out this gelding’s last, the Grade II Monmouth, a couple months ago. The gelding started outside in a large field and expended tons of energy moving to mid-pack; there was little left in the tank after that. A cleaner trip… The gelding has acquitted himself very well in graded stakes competition. He now meets a field he should be able to handle. Luis Saez for trainer Bill Mott. Also: :1: Ghurair, :3: Red Rifle; :9: Reflecting.
Race Ten:
In the finale, I like :9: Given Fire. I’m going to try to wrap up the day with a longshot. Given Fire is turning back a panel and a half from his last effort in late September at Belmont, a race in which he finished seventh after contending earlier. I always keep an eye out for Michelle Nihei trainees. She’s demonstrated the ability condition winners when you might not have expected it. Junior Alvarado rides. Also: :10: Gu Gu Beans; :11: Home to Carrowkeel; :3: Jennys Creek.
:1: Star Gazing will likely go off as the prohibitive fave in this allowance route for New York state-breds. I believe this filly deserves to go off the chalk. Yes, I was trying to find ways to beat this 3-year-old Unbridled-bred filly, yet I keep coming back to the word, the horse: Unbridled. Like yo, this was the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner. And Unbridled is the only horse to have his progeny, Grindstone, also win the Kentucky Derby; he did it six years later in 1996. As much as I’d like to find a way to bet against her, I just can’t. In a race where the key question is: Which horse gets the distance?; there are very few alternatives to Sky Gazing. If I were going to try to beat her - and I still might hedge (hedging dilutes) by boxing exactas - I’ll probably use: :6: Dixie Brass. This filly’s dam’s sire is Dixie Brass. Dixie Brass was a router. The lineage, at least on the dam’s side, is there, as are the services of Javier Castellano, the meet’s leading rider. Oh, add to that the fact that the filly broke her maiden at first asking, albeit against 20k claimers. The filly was claimed out of that one by Gary Contessa. Also, Dixie Brass has a solid morning work. There is also :5: Devious Maddy. I see that her dam’s sire was Alydeed, another router. Leah “The Preacher” Gyarmati trains. This filly looks more like a turf horse but she did finish third at a mile against allowance company on the dirt. Taylor Rice is in the irons. It’s your call whom you think can complete a super. I’ll toss in :4: Annie Walker. Mike Hushion is a most capable trainer.
Race Three:
I just don’t know how good this Kitten’s Joy-bred colt may be. We’ll find out, one way or the other, this afternoon. Every time I see Kitten’s Joy, I think turf. Breeders certainly get a high price for his stud services. Yet, this roan colt’s morning works have me befuddled. Mediocre. You’ve probably deduced that my lukewarm pick here (I’m trying to convince myself) is :7: Chief Kitten. Certainly the connections are there: Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Yet, it’s always tough with first-time starters, especially, as in this case, where the colt’s morning work-tab has you wondering; however, Chief Kitten is my pick here in the maiden-special turf route. Others: :2: Animalia; :3: Brother O’Connell; :8: Startup Nation.
Race Four:
In this Birdstone Stakes ultra-marathon to be contested over this distance of one and three-quarters miles for a purse of 100k my pick is :5: Micromanage (he was scratched out of yesterday’s card for this). Class-wise, this Medaglia d’Oro-bred colt stands head and shoulders above the competition, e.g., the Suburban, the Brooklyn, etc. Yet, he’s never gone this far; that makes this unchartered waters. That in itself always poses more questions than answers. Of course, he’s not alone. He does have solid connections: the Repole Stable, Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano. I believe if he gets the distance, he wins. Also: :4: Double Dulce, :2: Irsaal; :3: Seton Hall.
Race Five:
My pick here in this maiden-claiming turf route for New York state-breds is :3: Transplendid. This Gone West-bred filly has finished third four times in nine turf appearances. She seemed to wake up in her last as she dropped in for a tag for the first time in her racing career; she finished third a-length in that one. This appears to be the kind of competition that she should be able to handle. It’s her second start off a layoff. Trainer Phil Serpe is very good with beaten favorites. Javier Castellano is in the irons. Also: :5: The Lady’s Cruisen; :1: Miss Motivation; :8: Saratoga Valley.
Race Six:
My choice in this claiming route is: :1: Q Two. The Dale Romans trainee stretched out and dropped into the selling ranks last time as the overwhelming favorite in a maiden-breaking win. She stays in the claiming ranks but now moves up against winners. I think she can prevail once again despite the class hike. Admittedly this Fappiano-bred colt won his last race in pedestrian times; yet I still believe the colt has the ability to prevail here. Corey Lanerie, who has been lackluster thus far in this Saratoga, meet, reprises the ride. Also: :7: Chrisandlorisposse; :5: Navajo Ca Lo; :4: Golden Nugget.
Race Seven:
My pick in this New York state-bred claiming turf route is :9: Make Your Point. The 3 year-old Mr. Prospector-bred filly was a beaten 7/2 fave in her last. She can make amends here; she cuts back a “teenth”. Two third-place finishes in two tries on the lawn. Jose Lezcano for Phil Serpe. :8: Race and Shine; :7: Tenacious Indeed; :10: Kevin’s Steel.
Race Eight:
Race Eight is a turf allowance sprint. My nod goes to :6: Golden Story. The Medaglia d’Oro-bred colt was bumped at the start in his most recent Ellis Park race and faded at the end; a race in which he did face weaker. A cleaner trip would help this colt’s chances. In a prior start to his last he easily broke his maiden by winning easily in maiden-special company. Javier Castellano is in the irons for trainer Bill Hickey who, by the way, is very good with shippers. Also: :5: Heart Doctor; :4: Defiant; :8: Indian Rain Dance.
Race Nine:
In this mile an one-eighth optional claimer, my choice is: :7: Tetradrachm. I think you can throw out this gelding’s last, the Grade II Monmouth, a couple months ago. The gelding started outside in a large field and expended tons of energy moving to mid-pack; there was little left in the tank after that. A cleaner trip… The gelding has acquitted himself very well in graded stakes competition. He now meets a field he should be able to handle. Luis Saez for trainer Bill Mott. Also: :1: Ghurair, :3: Red Rifle; :9: Reflecting.
Race Ten:
In the finale, I like :9: Given Fire. I’m going to try to wrap up the day with a longshot. Given Fire is turning back a panel and a half from his last effort in late September at Belmont, a race in which he finished seventh after contending earlier. I always keep an eye out for Michelle Nihei trainees. She’s demonstrated the ability condition winners when you might not have expected it. Junior Alvarado rides. Also: :10: Gu Gu Beans; :11: Home to Carrowkeel; :3: Jennys Creek.