SAR 5th Today: Chad Brown

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Narrowing my pick 4,5 plays I got to the 5th and I'm not sure what to make of Chad Brown's :4: Saucon Valley. A quick turn around and drops to claiming ranks for first time, but 16K? Why not aim higher :confused: My inclination is to stay away but the barn numbers scream out on all fronts.

+2014 267 27% 60% -0.18
+1st Time Clmg 40 45% 63% +1.27
+Turf to Dirt 63 32% 63% +0.15
+Claiming 123 36% 72% +0.25

The :3: is my top choice here with the :2: being my longshot who broke maiden here last summer in off going. :7: drop makes some sense to me after getting in over his head at CD after MC30,000 score.

So I have the :2: :3: :7:
So Chad Brown :4: : Toss or Use?

[lunger]

I think you do have to use here, The first time claimer number is too hard to ignore for Chad Brown. Owners want to win at Saratoga. Horse is likely to have improved on the dirt since the maiden victory and it seems to me the 3 is the prominent pace rival and not much else.

[Bennie]

no need to fret about the :4: , he is a scratch

[Robert Fischer]

The :4: is a scratch, so for better or for worse, that is a decision you don't have to make.

I think your :2: is a cool add. I also worry a little about the :2: getting out of the gate.

I don't have a really strong opinion of the :3: either way, and she's the horse you have to have an opinion of here.

The :3: seems to have a history of coming up short, and is scary to take at a short price. However as far as the class of the race and the way this track plays to inside speed, she has a lot helping her along.


The :7: is tough for different reasons than the :3:. The :7: looks really solid, and the main key will be whether she can get involved early. Probably classy enough to adjust here.

With the :4: scratched, that makes the :5: and the :11: both a little bit intriguing.



:3::7::5: :confused: tough race

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Now scratched (Veterinarian) seems something was amiss with that :4: and it may have been a fire sale after all, giving up on her. Am I reading too much into this?

:5: I really like underneath in exactas with my top selection(s).
:2: :3: :7: / :5:

[Robert Fischer]

Andy Serling made a great case for using the :6: in today's NYRA handicapping show.


:3::7::6::5:

A:3:
B:7:
C:6::5:
?

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Andy Serling made a great case for using the :6: in today's NYRA handicapping show.


:3::7::6::5:

A:3:
B:7:
C:6::5:
?


With that tidbit on the :6: I think the :9: can mosey up for 4th. I gotta move the :5: up to second though.
A: :3:
B: :5:
C: :6: :7:
D: :9:

[Robert Fischer]

Your :2: from your original pick ran a good 2nd :ThmbUp:


Looks like we over-thought that race a little bit. :3: probably should have been a single. ;)

[nijinski]

Saratoga R8 #3 Where's Danny