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View Full Version : Moreno wins the Whitney?


Mineshaft
08-02-2014, 08:54 PM
holy batman wonder what will come out of Guillot's mouth now

Tom
08-02-2014, 09:30 PM
I think his jock used a buzzer. :rolleyes:

iceknight
08-03-2014, 12:32 AM
Irrespective of the trainer's shenanigans the horse deserves a word of Congrats.
it would be classic if California Chrome's owner (the one who runs his mouth) get Guillot as a trainer for one of their future horses

Rex Phinney
08-03-2014, 12:57 AM
That race was a basket of cats. The field looked pretty solid before hand and in the end you have to wonder how good it can be if Moreno wins a $1,500,000 race.

classhandicapper
08-03-2014, 11:29 AM
Moreno ran well in the Suburban even though the race came up on the slow side. He was used wide from the outside post in a fast pace at 10F on a day that was arguably a GR day. Shaking loose in pretty even fractions on a day that was probably tilted mildly towards the inside was quite a flip flop in trips for him. But I think he mostly won because Will Take Charge hasn't been as sharp lately and Palice Malice didn't fire yesterday.

cj
08-03-2014, 01:37 PM
...that was probably tilted mildly towards the inside ...

I have no idea how you could possibly draw that conclusion. Probably tilted mildly? What does that even mean?

I see absolutely no evidence that the inside was any advantage other than being the shortest path to the wire.

nijinski
08-03-2014, 02:04 PM
Job well done by Moreno yesterday . He seems to like the Spa . Looking
back at his Travers there last year which was a very brave effort !

Connections had him ready in what turned out to be likely an emotional
roller coaster ride type of day for them .

JustRalph
08-03-2014, 07:06 PM
I like him......

He goes to the front and says come and catch me.........

real racehorse. Maybe not the most successful strategy, but given his talent, why not?

I don't care about the connections. The horse is closing in on 2 million bucks. Good for them..........

In this day of "taking back" "race riding" and over thinking a race with Jocks who and trainers who seem to hurt themselves more than ever, I welcome some real race horses. This guy is a real front running race horse who has taken advantage when he could. I wish there were fifty more like him.........

Smarty Cide
08-03-2014, 07:10 PM
Palice Malice tanked even more proof California Chrome will win the Classic... yeah i said it :cool:

Tom
08-03-2014, 07:51 PM
Good horse or horse for course?
Or a bunch of lackeys behind him?
I've seen a lot of crappy horses win this year and all they had going for them was a good race here last year.

martini
08-03-2014, 08:36 PM
That race was a basket of cats. The field looked pretty solid before hand and in the end you have to wonder how good it can be if Moreno wins a $1,500,000 race.

Agreed. Congrats to everyone who used Moreno, but I had a hard time using a lifetime winner of two starts in that spot, even with the good workouts. That they let him coast on the front in easy fractions was odd.

I think this is the year to bet three-year-olds against older in the coming months. Really, if the best of the older group are the likes of Moonshine Mulllin and Moreno, the sport is ripe for a takeover by the younger cats.

cj
08-03-2014, 08:41 PM
Everybody keeps saying the fractions were easy, but the really weren't in my opinion. For Moreno, they were solid. But what horses in the field were expected to keep up with him early? I don't really see any, not without being doomed to an up the track finish.

Rex Phinney
08-03-2014, 09:08 PM
Good horse or horse for course?
Or a bunch of lackeys behind him?
I've seen a lot of crappy horses win this year and all they had going for them was a good race here last year.

I always play Saratoga by finding a horse who ran well here last year. Don't know what it is but lately it seems to play as a one off kind of track.

I was all in on WTC for this reason yesterday, but I'm a dumbass and forgot about Moreno's success there.

Remember Stay Thirsty? He looked like a world beater at Saratoga.

Trips
08-03-2014, 09:08 PM
Race fractions were roughly 23.60-23.80-23.80-24.0
The above fractions show very little deceleration. If the pace was solid there would have been more.
They look more likely to come from a turf race than a dirt race.

Rex Phinney
08-03-2014, 09:09 PM
Everybody keeps saying the fractions were easy, but the really weren't in my opinion. For Moreno, they were solid. But what horses in the field were expected to keep up with him early? I don't really see any, not without being doomed to an up the track finish.

I agree, the first six furlongs was 1:11 and change, that IMO is not exactly jogging in a 9 furlong race. He won by space too, so it's not like he held on by a whisker because he got a break on the lead.

Rex Phinney
08-03-2014, 09:14 PM
Palice Malice tanked even more proof California Chrome will win the Classic... yeah i said it :cool:

Will Take Charge was coming by the end though, a horse like him is going to have a much better setup once you get horses like Moreno, Game on Dude and others on the lead and add a furlong.

I'd reserve judgement on CC until he actually works again, well that and maybe sometime after August 24th, when the 2YO champ with the cursed feet takes on older horses.

cj
08-03-2014, 09:41 PM
Race fractions were roughly 23.60-23.80-23.80-24.0
The above fractions show very little deceleration. If the pace was solid there would have been more.
They look more likely to come from a turf race than a dirt race.

Do you have data to back that up at 9f on dirt? Those look like typical winning ratios at 9f on dirt to me. Sometimes the leader runs them, sometimes not.

taxicab
08-04-2014, 12:37 AM
The race Moreno ran is legit.
There is nothing counterfeit about it.
The 9 furlong dirt races at Saratoga have played slow the entire meet.
Moreno went in 1:48 flat.
The second fastest time for a 1 1/8th dirt race @ Saratoga this year is 1:49(Wicked Strong in the JD).
If you want to break the race down fractionally speaking the second quarter of 23.4 probably did the trick for Moreno.
I think Junior Alvarado deserves alot of credit for riding Moreno the right way.
Moreno doesn't do things on his own.
He has to be pushed on pretty good to get the best out of him.
Alvarado was aggressive on Moreno from the jump Saturday and it paid off.

letswastemoney
08-04-2014, 12:48 AM
I don't see what is so surprising about Moreno.

Early speed is usually dangerous in dirt racing, and this one showed an ability to lead and keep fighting in every race except the Breeders Cup Classic where Fort Larned and Game On Dude were breathing down his neck, and the Met Mile where he was bizarrely rated.

classhandicapper
08-04-2014, 08:50 AM
I have no idea how you could possibly draw that conclusion. Probably tilted mildly? What does that even mean?

I see absolutely no evidence that the inside was any advantage other than being the shortest path to the wire.

I have evolved a different way of noting biases than most people.

I don't consider ground loss to be literal and I don't look at just the rail. I look at multiple paths because multiple paths can be good or bad.

On most days at most of the tracks I follow (which these days is every track running major stakes), if you lose several lengths of ground on the turn, IMO the disadvantage will be less than that. Often, it's not much of a disadvantage at all. To me, that's the norm. I think ground loss is overrated.

When ground loss is translating into a serious disadvantage, that's when I make a note.

When the rail or multiple paths inside are moving horses up or down it's a different note.

Sometimes I have a different note for the stretch vs. the turn because the inside/out trip seems to be fine.

Any day with a small sample of dirt races or ambiguous results gets a "probably" until I monitor horses coming back.

I haven't even reviewed the card for that day yet, but watching live at the track it looked to me like saving ground was a clear advantage. It wasn't moving horses up, but that's where you wanted to be. The sample is small though, so it will get a "probably" until horses come back.

pacer
08-04-2014, 09:25 AM
I don't know why people are sureprized he won. I think if you look at the workouts he 7/26 Sar wo 58.4 1 out of 49 to be moving. A nice race in the Sbrbn H G2 fin 3rd lead the whole race folded in the stretch (4th off a layoff). I bet him to win and had the pick4. Wasn't surprised at all Just just my opinion.

Trips
08-04-2014, 09:47 AM
Path bias's are often directly linked to pace. Often when it appears that being wide was a disadvantage, it was a direct result of slow paces and not a path bias.

classhandicapper
08-04-2014, 10:12 AM
Path bias's are often directly linked to pace. Often when it appears that being wide was a disadvantage, it was a direct result of slow paces and not a path bias.

I agree.

To do a good job of bias determination you have a have a good grip on the ability of the horses to begin with and you have to look at the race development. That's why so many people disagree about biases. They go into the races with different opinions, disagree about the trips, so they interpret the results and bias differently also.

BlueShoe
08-04-2014, 10:56 AM
I'm an idiot, someone kick me. Liked him in the Met Mile in spite of claims by others that he was outclassed, and he turned in a too bad to be true clunker. The good bounce back second in the Suburban should have alerted me, but dumb me, passed the Whitney. :bang: :blush: :(

classhandicapper
08-04-2014, 11:24 AM
I'm an idiot, someone kick me. Liked him in the Met Mile in spite of claims by others that he was outclassed, and he turned in a too bad to be true clunker. The good bounce back second in the Suburban should have alerted me, but dumb me, passed the Whitney. :bang: :blush: :(

I used him in the Met also. The blinkers off that day was probably a red flag.

letswastemoney
08-04-2014, 01:18 PM
I'm an idiot, someone kick me. Liked him in the Met Mile in spite of claims by others that he was outclassed, and he turned in a too bad to be true clunker. The good bounce back second in the Suburban should have alerted me, but dumb me, passed the Whitney. :bang: :blush: :(It's hard to secure the lead in the Met Mile. He needs it though.

iceknight
08-04-2014, 01:46 PM
Moreno ran a good race.
The fractions were solid for a 9F race. What do you want? 1:08 for 6F... Only St Liam and Ghostzapper can do that. Or Skippy and hold on to win.
Moreno was 2 wins lifetime before this because.. well, he lost Travers by a nose, Suburban was a good effort, BC he came out injured -a good reason to explain the 10th.

Look, Guillot may talk his mouth, but Moreno has good lines on both sides and hopefully we can expect more good stuff out of him. The talk of hoty for PM at this stage in late July was a little too much so I am glad Moreno won convincingly against these cupcakes :rolleyes: (WTC, PM, Golden Ticket and Departing)

Trips
08-04-2014, 02:13 PM
Do you have data to back that up at 9f on dirt? Those look like typical winning ratios at 9f on dirt to me. Sometimes the leader runs them, sometimes not.
Didn't know you were discussing typical winning ratios. Thought the pace of the race was the discussion.
When the leader sets what is considered typical winning ratios the pace cannot have been solid.
Closers had no shot given the pace dynamics IMO.

JustRalph
08-04-2014, 02:47 PM
Will Take Charge was coming by the end though, a horse like him is going to have a much better setup once you get horses like Moreno, Game on Dude and others on the lead and add a furlong.

I don't agree with this thinking at all. Never have. My data over the years has been solid on it too. Adding a furlong tends to not help those S types coming from the back. All that really matters is the pace. Just my opine

Appy
08-04-2014, 02:49 PM
Safe to say there is not one trainer in the country who wouldn't relish the prospect of having Moreno on the roster of charges in their barn. Or Normandy Invasion either.

Rex Phinney
08-04-2014, 05:05 PM
I don't agree with this thinking at all. Never have. My data over the years has been solid on it too. Adding a furlong tends to not help those S types coming from the back. All that really matters is the pace. Just my opine

I can get on board with that. I've always thought sometime distance slows closers, they have to run the extra distance too, so sometimes the longer the race, the weaker their closing kick.

I'd easily say the pace is more important than 9 vs. 10 furlongs.

That being said, I think the BC classic will have plenty of pace.

Wickel
08-04-2014, 09:15 PM
I've been waiting for Moreno's return to the races. He's been working up to a peak performance and he certainly delivered. But that wasn't the shocker on Saturday. At least for me. I keyed Moreno on top with Palace Malice, Will Take Charge and Golden Ticket in exactas, tris and supers. How could I possibly lose? But I did. Again.

iceknight
08-05-2014, 12:44 AM
I've been waiting for Moreno's return to the races. He's been working up to a peak performance and he certainly delivered. But that wasn't the shocker on Saturday. At least for me. I keyed Moreno on top with Palace Malice, Will Take Charge and Golden Ticket in exactas, tris and supers. How could I possibly lose? But I did. Again.Besides skills and luck, sometimes you need a Prayer too!

rastajenk
08-05-2014, 06:30 AM
Apparently it wasn't your lucky day. :p

letswastemoney
08-05-2014, 12:08 PM
I've been waiting for Moreno's return to the races. He's been working up to a peak performance and he certainly delivered. But that wasn't the shocker on Saturday. At least for me. I keyed Moreno on top with Palace Malice, Will Take Charge and Golden Ticket in exactas, tris and supers. How could I possibly lose? But I did. Again.I hope you backed up with a smaller win bet on Moreno. I try to back up the horse I key in an exacta with a win bet too in case the underneath ones fail.

GaryG
08-05-2014, 12:31 PM
Eric Guillot is one trainer whom I just cannot bet. He has done little with lots of expensive stock given him over the years by this owner. Have to say though, he did a good job with this one.

JustRalph
08-05-2014, 01:47 PM
Eric Guillot is one trainer whom I just cannot bet. He has done little with lots of expensive stock given him over the years by this owner. Have to say though, he did a good job with this one.

Didn't this crew buy some expensive mare a few years back?

letswastemoney
08-05-2014, 01:53 PM
Didn't this crew buy some expensive mare a few years back?Southern Equine owns Better Than Honour now.

I think Guillot has failed to break the maidens of the last two Better Than Honours, although maybe Street Cry is a bad sire for her.

GaryG
08-05-2014, 01:59 PM
Didn't this crew buy some expensive mare a few years back?Yes, one was Better Than Honour for $10 mil or so as I remember. They have Champagne d'Oro whom they raced, also an interest in Bodemeister and a big farm in the Lex area. I guess he is showing loyalty as they started out together.

BlueShoe
08-05-2014, 02:00 PM
I've always thought sometime distance slows closers, they have to run the extra distance too, so sometimes the longer the race, the weaker their closing kick.
An example of this is the late running sprinter stretching out today to a two turn route. Often these types make a mid race bid and then hang in the final eighth. Usually overbet, often a go against play.