PDA

View Full Version : Meadowlands late pick 4 Hambo day 8/2


Poindexter
08-02-2014, 09:07 AM
Have 2 pick 4 plays here
1-4-11 with 6-7-10 with 1-2-3-5 with 1-2-4-6-7 $90 for a 50 cent ticket
1-11 with 7-10 with 1-2-3-5 with 1-2-4-6-7 $40 for a 50 cent ticket

12TH) 1-4-11
Interesting race here. Designed to be received a lot of attention recently when kept in(blocked) while Shake it Cerry crawled the 2nd quarter sprinted clear on the lead turning for home and held. Based off of all that attention Designed to be was bet down to 4/5 again against Shake it Cerry sat the pocket, cleared late and could not muster up the late close. Designed to be showed June 18th that she is a good one. She ¼ moved on Shake it Cerry going the 2nd ¼ in 26.4 dueled 3rd quarter with Shake it Cerry who pulled pocket, put her away and drew clear in 151.3.
Now the thing about Shake it Cerry who has won 14 of 18 races is she is extremely quick. Her quickness is a huge asset. Now you can look at her last 2 races and say she crawled early and stole the races, which is true, but doesn’t mean she would have lost if she went faster. Pierce has been very chilly in the bike the last 2. What is interesting here is that she is in the 2nd tier today meaning her move probably will be to quarter move from mid pack. I think she is plenty quick enough to do it, the question is what is Designed to be going to do about it. I think Designed to be can beat this horse but she has to do it by being driven aggressively. Not sitting the 2 hole and outrotting her home. I do not think that will happen.
I will use both in the pick 4 and also throw in longshot Harley Momma. Was 4th over in that July 26th race and really closed well. She has tactical speed and if she can get a trip, maybe she can pull the upset.
From a betting standpoint will probably look for a price on Harley Momma and work her in exactas and tri with the 2 favorites.

13th)6-7-10

I really tried hard to make a case to beat Father Patrick(as I have said the only thing I like to do more than beat an overbet 3/5 shot is an to beat an overbet 2/5 shot). The horse is in the 10 hole which can be tough, especially when you have 11 horses shooting for 1 million dollar purse. The best point I can make is this horse has not been roughed up yet. If you look at all his races this year, generally the first half is slower than the 2nd half(in fact in the one exception he only held on to win by a neck at 1/10), he always makes the lead(so he doesn’t have to pull pocket or go 1st over or even pass anyone) he never gets pushed in a torrid 3rd quarter. Is he beatable, yes. The problem is as SRU pointed out in another thread, trainer has 3 favorites in here, and that means that he will likely get to take advantage of the situation. For instance he can make the top, Trixton can brush to the top putting this guy in the 2 hole, I am sure he will be able to retake with no resistance…….Obviously, I cannot make a case to bet this guy at odds on from the 10 hole, but he has to be used in the pick 4. Another guy I will use in the pick 4 is Trixton, who had some weak cover in the Stanley Dancer Memorial(the cover eventually broke, but he was so far out of position he could not make up the needed ground). He was trotting up a storm in the lane. He came back to daylight Datsyuk who has been competing well at this level. If someone is good enough to beat Father Patrick it is Trixton. I am going to toss in one more horse in this and that is Royal Ice. This horse could never break 1:56 then takes a month off and trots home in 151.3, the last ½ in 54.4. Yikes. Not one to get overly excited about horses who earn huge figures running against air, but this guy might be this good. If sent (and I assume he will be) he might have the early speed to disrupt the plans of team Takter.

14th)
1-2-3-5
1) Roclamation-Very impressive win 7/12. Missed a week. Was used some before taking a seat, ended up with a nice 2nd over journey and closed impressively.
2) Drop the Ball-Was 4th over in that 7/12 race and closed well. Last race he was used pretty much every step and held on to win(left hard, 2h retake, pressed hard battle back and held for win).
3) Jerseylicious-Had traffic trouble in the 7/12 race and was 3rd over and a nice 2nd last. With the right trip he can get there.

5)Androvette-Had no chance when last from the 10 hole. Prior race was abused , parked in a 25.4 1st quarter. 3 back he was parked the mile. Prior to that he ran off 3 straight vs these type horses. Probably represents good value with the deceptive form.

Just a quick note about Somewhere over the Rainbow who was beaten chalk last week. He had a dream trip and was empty, and prior week he ¼ moved into a 53.4 first half(but that was misleading as he made his move in the 28 second quarter) and faded. Looks off his game to me.



15th) 1-2-4-6-7

Having a hard time getting a handle on this race so I will likely pass it. I am hoping that I slide by with the 5 horses I am using. Of the 5, the one of interest is the 7) Urgent Action. He was going great guns at this level and then got sick. His race back he drew outside, ducked swung 3 wide entire ft and motored home .26. He can leave from the 7 hole and has a big shot in here. A very, very tough race however.

Good luck.