R12 Monmouth G1 Haskell

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'll be short and sweet.

I like the hard knocking :8: Wildcat Red to pull the upset. Hopefully can get him at 8/1 or better.

Will be using the :3: Albano and :5: Just Call Kenny with him in exotics, while also including the monster filly :7: Untapable who everybody is trying to beat.

[PhantomOnTour]

Albano looks like the wiseguy horse, but I think he will get a great stalking trip and have every shot today.
Wildcat is a determined E and I can see a situation where he gets out there and discourages Bayern and Soc Inclusion & gets brave.

Don't like Medal Count - his two contending races came over Kee poly. Will get his pace to chase but I say he doesn't hit the ex over this surface.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Albano looks like the wiseguy horse, but I think he will get a great stalking trip and have every shot today.
Wildcat is a determined E and I can see a situation where he gets out there and discourages Bayern and Soc Inclusion & gets brave.

Don't like Medal Count - his two contending races came over Kee poly. Will get his pace to chase but I say he doesn't hit the ex over this surface.

I'm a Medal Count fan, and I just don't see his fit here unless we get a complete melt down up front. He could get up for the bottom end of the exotics, but he'll need to pass a lot of horses at 9 panels to get it done unless he changes tactics in this race.

[Tom]

:7: is faster than these.
You need to be within 3 at the half in Mth 9.0 furlong races, she fits that and she is right there after three quarters.

:9: Razor sharp, should have plenty of pace to close into. A bunch of horse are going to running backwards in the stretch or sooner.

:4: forging horse, not the best figs yet, but going in that direction. Solid foundation for his new top last out, can run a nother one togay and that puts him right in it.

[Speed Figure]

Untapable finally get's down with the boys! she's been running fantastic numbers that are better than most of the other 3 year old males!

[Speed Figure]

How my program has the race. Irish You Well looks like a very live longshot!

[raybo]

I'm using my program's "FV" method which uses each horse's best velocities for it's ratings. So, I'm assuming each of the logical contenders are ready to go today.

Here are my contenders, in ranked order:

:2: BAYERN
:9: MEDAL COUNT
:6: SOCIAL INCLUSION
:7: UNTAPABLE

[BlueChip@DRF]

:1::4::5::7: in ALL exotics. :cool:

[PhantomOnTour]

Settling on Albano, esp at his 17-1 odds :eek:

His last was a beauty...bid into a fast pace and drew off over this surface.
That represents a small improvement over his Risen Star race, 5wks rest with solid works, let's go Cowboy Larry.

EX:
3 w 2-6-7-8-9
TRI:
7-3-ALL
WIN:
3

Do not like the #4 at all - I say he gets gassed trying to stalk todays' pace and backs off.

[Some_One]

Got to play against Untappable, hasn't faced much, doesn't appear to have much more extra than what we've seen, she hasn't won her races with the same ridiculous ease Rachael did.

:7: w :2: :6: :9:

[Robert Fischer]

Bayern:2: and :7:Untapable

I like Medal Count, but not in this race.

no wagers for me today

[Appy]

I'm rootin' for the filly AND any horse running without lasix. Run big Social Inclusion! Got Bayern 3rd.

[clocker7]

Congrats, Bob.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Monster race by :2: Bayern. :eek:

Just put to rest a lot of concerns about his distance limitations today.

Extremely impressive.

[raybo]

9/2, I'll take it! Where was the filly???? :lol:

[Tom]

:23 :47 .......the rest are grabbing.
Race was over 10 second out of the gate.

You don't win races when you don't send.

[clocker7]

These 3 yo males are way better than given credit for.

[Grits]

On the NBC telecast, shown during the post parade, Baffert at 38% stretching out...that's one hard stat to beat. Congrats to the Bayern and connections.

[ArlJim78]

He's for real, back to back monster races for Bayern at 7 and 9 furlongs.
You could just tell on the backstretch it was over, based on how easy and comfortable he looked.

[Longshot6977]

On the NBC telecast, shown during the post parade, Baffert at 38% stretching out...that's one hard stat to beat. Congrats to the Bayern and connections.

I bet Bayern with 0 MTP due to that mentioned stat. I'm glad I was listening to NBC at that moment.

[Grits]

I bet Bayern with 0 MTP due to that mentioned stat. I'm glad I was listening to NBC at that moment.

Really pleased for you, Longshot!! Bob Baffert OWNS Monmouth's Haskell Invitational. As we see, there's a REASON he says "yes" when they call.

[Speed Figure]

Nobody goes out with him and it's over! can't let a horse like that get an easy lead. Untapable stay's with the ladies now!

[tanner12oz]

Blinkers on and this horse has turned into a monster...not exactly the speed duel that it appeared to be on paper

[raybo]

:23 :47 .......the rest are grabbing.
Race was over 10 second out of the gate.

You don't win races when you don't send.

What were you expecting in a mile-eighth, 22 and 46? Pace was about right IMO, Bayern is a "real" horse and could have handled a slightly faster pace today. No excuses for any of the others in this one, they all got beat by a better horse.

[PhantomOnTour]

What were you expecting in a mile-eighth, 22 and 46? Pace was about right IMO, Bayern is a "real" horse and could have handled a slightly faster pace today. No excuses for any of the others in this one, they all got beat by a better horse.
Yep - My guy Albano got the dream trip I envisioned but the winner ran away from him. Did well to get up for a clear 2nd though.

[Speed Figure]

What were you expecting in a mile-eighth, 22 and 46? Pace was about right IMO, Bayern is a "real" horse and could have handled a slightly faster pace today. No excuses for any of the others in this one, they all got beat by a better horse.I was! Social Inclusion stumbled at the start and that gave him a clear lead early.

[raybo]

Too much hype on Untapable clouded too many minds. The numbers were right today!

[Robert Fischer]

It looked like Social Inclusion was jumping around in the gate, and then Untapable reared once as well. Then at the start Untappable may have broke into another horse (possibly SI?).


All in all, no one was beating Bayern today, and she still had a fair chance to reset and make a good run for 2nd.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I bet Bayern with 0 MTP due to that mentioned stat. I'm glad I was listening to NBC at that moment.

I hate you. :D

Looked at this race for over an hour, while watching the tote board for 30 minutes to fire my wagers. And you drop a winning wager 0 MTP on the 38% Baffert fact. :blush: (for me)

The :2: who I used to really like before his Derby Trial really made me question his distance capabilities, comes back and sticks a stake in my heart.

A :3: :8: :4: anything is huge in all 3 verticals for me. :(

Nice hit! :ThmbUp:

[Clocker]

It looked like Social Inclusion was jumping around in the gate, and then Untapable reared once as well.

Social Inclusion unseated the jockey in the gate just before the start. That caused Untapable to react, but it didn't appear to be excessive on her part.

[Tom]

On the NBC telecast, shown during the post parade, Baffert at 38% stretching out...that's one hard stat to beat. Congrats to the Bayern and connections.

NBC covered it?
On normal channels?
Never saw any advertising for it at all.

[Valuist]

Settling on Albano, esp at his 17-1 odds :eek:

His last was a beauty...bid into a fast pace and drew off over this surface.
That represents a small improvement over his Risen Star race, 5wks rest with solid works, let's go Cowboy Larry.

EX:
3 w 2-6-7-8-9
TRI:
7-3-ALL
WIN:
3

Do not like the #4 at all - I say he gets gassed trying to stalk todays' pace and backs off.

I liked Albano too. Crazy win price on him. Pretty good day for Boo Boo Clark. He wins the Matchmaker and a 2nd in the Haskell.

[Clocker]

NBC covered it?
On normal channels?
Never saw any advertising for it at all.

I didn't know about it either, until after the race was over. Even with all the fluff on NBC, watching a race there always adds something to the experience. I just caught the last 5 minutes. Jerry Bailey, the former jockey on the NBC coverage, said that Garcia didn't immediately let up after he crossed the wire, but stayed down on the horse for another 1/2 furlong or so, like they were testing him at a little longer distance.

It appears that NBC will be covering all the win-and-in races for the Breeder's Cup Classic. The next one is next Saturday, the Whitney Stakes, and then the Travers Stakes on Aug. 23.

[BIG49010]

I think the story was the speed rail bias, and everyone thinking a speed duel will develop and deciding not to send. Baff never falls for that crap, he just sends and lets the cards fall.

[NY BRED]

real story is Mr. Baffert always warrants respect shipping
into the east coast for Graded races.

I've always loved this horse, finally recouped my previous loss
in the Preakness when Rosie was up on Bayern.
Interesting turn of events with Rosie on the "fav"

:jump: :jump:

[classhandicapper]

IMO there were 2 significant factors in the outcome that didn't come to light unless you were watching the races.

1. In an interview, the connections of Wildcat Red said they intended to sit OFF Bayern and not mix it up.

2. It appeared to me that the rail was the best path, and if anything, was getting stronger as the day went on. Brad Thomas agreed with that assessment and he knows Monmouth as well as anyone.

[burnsy]

Bayern proves me wrong and steps it up. Last two were bang up. He's in the conversation after that performance.

[raybo]

It appears some here are making much more of the running of the race than is logical. Bayern, in his "good" races, is an "E7" horse, and ranked 2nd in FR1 velocities. The top velocity ranked horse in FR1 was Medal Count, who in his "good" races runs as an "S0" and only 0.1 fps faster than Bayern (no threat to Bayern early). The 3rd velocity ranked horse in FR1 was Wildcat Red, who in his good races runs as a "P4" (again no threat to Bayern early), the 4th ranked FR1 horse was Untapable, a "P0" (not a threat either and almost 1 fps slower than Bayern in FR1 velocities). The only running style threat to Bayern was Social Inclusion, an "E5" who is almost 2 fps slower than Bayern early (no threat to Bayern early).

Based on these factors, Bayern was supposed to get a fairly comfortable early lead, which he did.

Bayern was the top velcocity ranked horse in the FR3 segment, .7 fps faster than Untapable (FR3 2nd ranked) who, by the 3rd segment, based on her early velocities and running style, would be too far back to be any kind of threat to win the race.

The only way Bayern loses this race is if he does not run his race. All the trainer stats, and rail bias, and gate troubles, and anything else mentioned, as the reason things turned out the way they did, just doesn't matter at all, regarding who wins the race. All Bayern had to do was run his race, and if that happened, without his breaking down or some other unforeseen thing taking place, and nobody else runs significantly above what they have shown in the past, then he certainly should have won the race.

In this race, things went almost exactly the way they should have, with the possible exception that Social Inclusion maybe should have been closer to the front early, but that still would not have changed the complexion of the early running much, with Bayern being 2 fps faster than SI.

[classhandicapper]

Raybo,

I hear everything you are saying and don't disagree, but the reason he was 9-2 instead of 2-1 was because there was a question about whether he was as good at 9F as he was at 7F, especially if Wildcat Red was NOT rated and put pressure on him. His form looked better going short (granted with some mitigating circumstances related to being rushed into races).

Once the rail is the best path and the connections of WR tell you they are NOT GOING HARD (if you watch the race the jock choked him just before the turn) it changed the probabilities of the race. Any concerns about the race conditions were mitigated and it became all about Bayern duplicating his last effort.

He ran so well it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway, but he had a good trip.

[raybo]

Raybo,



He ran so well it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway, but he had a good trip.

As he should have, that's all I'm saying.

We can guess all we want, but we can't predict exactly the way a race is going to run. But, when you look at the way horses run when they run their better races, and then you match them up based on that, there was nobody in the race who could match up against Bayern.

The blinkers told you what the connections were going to do, all you had to do was look at the others for evidence from their past that they can match up with him. Nobody could run with Bayern early, without destroying any chance they had to win, and I think most of them, deep down, knew that. In laying back, they allowed him to run his race, and we know that his total race is better than theirs, at least I know that when looking at what the field has done in the past.

Again, he should have won the race, and he did. All the hype on the filly really made no sense to me and I really expected the smart bettors to "snap to" late, but they didn't. Letting this horse go off at 9/2, while good on the face of it, certainly could have afforded betting more money on him.

[Tom]

I threw him out because last time he ran a huge new top, with a big move.
Horses like that generally do not repeat the number. I don't bet off new tops unless the horse forged to it and the move was 1 or 2. I throw out 20 losers for every winner. This one bit me. (HTR Fig2 numbers). Guy's Reward in the previous race was coming off a 2 point move to a new top, but he forged his way there, so I played him. $11.80 - I was not going to get them both, but you have to take a stand.

[raybo]

I threw him out because last time he ran a huge new top, with a big move.
Horses like that generally do not repeat the number. I don't bet off new tops unless the horse forged to it and the move was 1 or 2. I throw out 20 losers for every winner. This one bit me. (HTR Fig2 numbers). Guy's Reward in the previous race was coming off a 2 point move to a new top, but he forged his way there, so I played him. $11.80 - I was not going to get them both, but you have to take a stand.

That new top was all earned entirely on the front end while having stiff competition, if you check the pace figures and beaten lengths, and he won convincingly by 7.5, because of those early fractions, running everybody out of the race early. Those huge first 2 calls inflated the speed figure dramatically, but those tremendous early calls should have hit you square between the eyes, IMO. This horse is not the same horse we saw earlier in the year, and certainly not the horse we saw in the Preakness where he didn't get off well and lost his race out of the gate. I think many placed too much emphasis on his Preakness, thinking he couldn't get the distance, after his poor start of course he finished poorly. He had 50 days off after his last race, so he came into this one well rested. A very good performance yesterday, but not the best he can do, IMO. I believe this horse will prove himself even more capable in the future.

If I were a breeder, I'd love to have this horse in my stable!

[classhandicapper]

I agree that his Preakness was an obvious toss and his last a legit high level sprint.

[cutchemist42]

Race has been pretty well analyzed so all I will say is that I was shocked to hear this was on NBC an hour later. Had no clue from advertising it was, and that sure as hell would have beat the low res live stream off their website. Good to know for the future win-n-ins.

[PhantomOnTour]

Bafferts next move (King's Bishop or Travers) will tell us if he is pointing Bayern to the Classic or Dirt Mile...would love to see him in the Classic with Palace Malice on his hip.
Could be a beauty matchup

[cj]

Bafferts next move (King's Bishop or Travers) will tell us if he is pointing Bayern to the Classic or Dirt Mile...would love to see him in the Classic with Palace Malice on his hip.
Could be a beauty matchup

Hard to believe he would cut back after that effort. Game On Dude can't win the Classic, so he may as well try Bayern.

[raybo]

Hard to believe he would cut back after that effort. Game On Dude can't win the Classic, so he may as well try Bayern.

I can't see it either, especially seeing as how Garcia kept whipping the horse in late stretch when there was no threat. It appears they want to know what else he can do late, if asked.

[Redboard]

Bafferts next move (King's Bishop or Travers) will tell us if he is pointing Bayern to the Classic or Dirt Mile...would love to see him in the Classic with Palace Malice on his hip.
Could be a beauty matchup
Baffert said today its either the Travers or PA derby.I would love to see that speedball in the Travers to stir the pot and add to the confusion, but, I can understand the concern to give him more rest.

[classhandicapper]

I think Bayern will wind up in the BC Mile unless he does something big against older horses at 9F. Baffert was on the fence about going in the Haskell at 9F against 3YOs until a recent work was so good.