Bluegrass Beyer Figures BOGUS???

[Tuffmug]

Was going through my DRF collection to read the charts of the Blue Grass. Trying to figure out how LionHeart and Cliff's Edge got such monster numbers. It just did't make sense they could improve that much. As I closed the Form I suddenly got the answer.

Right on the front of the form (Wednesday April 14) was a big picture of Cliff's Edge winning the Blue Grass. Something struck me funny about it. WHY WAS CLIFF'S EDGE AND SHANE SELLERS COVERED IN MUD? wELL SURE HE'S A CLOSER AND WILL GET SOME DIRT THROWN HIS WAY BUT WHERE DID THE MUD COME FROM?

Friends, I suspect that the Keeneland maintenance crew must have sped up the track for the Blue Grass by dumping extra water on it just prior to the Blue Grass. I think that is where the mud came from. If they did this then the average variant for the day would be way too high and the Beyers for the Blue Grass runners would be inflated and BOGUS!.

This makes more sense to me than swallowing that Cliff's Edge can run a 111 Beyers. If this is true, then you have to downgrade Lion Heart and Cliff's Edge sharply in the Derby

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Interesting theory. But the margins throughout at the finish were good which would support a high figure.

[andicap]

I remember an Arkansas Derby a number of years back -- when Rockamundo won it -- in which all the horses got huge speed figs and none of them ran back to them ever, in the Derby, in allowance races, etc.

By the same token, is there any evidence the horses in the Florida Derby got figures that were too low?

I'm chucking Cliff since he could bounce even if the figures are real and his odds will be too low.

I'm waiting until I get my HDW files before commiting myself (yes, thousands are waiting for my Derby horse. Well, only two: my mom and my cousin.)

[Tuffmug]

Andicap,
Suspect Keeneland crew may have overwatered BECAUSE of the complaints about the dry surface in the Fla Derby which lowered the Beyer figures.

[cj]

I don't buy the Florida Derby figure being "bogus" at all. It was an early season 3yo race with a very fast pace that just fell apart.

We have Read The Footnotes, who would be example No. 1 in Bounce 101 class. We had Tapit, who was about as fit for that race as I was. Then there is the Cliff's Edge, who got less out of his race at Tampa than any horse in recent memory. Value Plus wants 1 1/8 miles about as much as Warren Sapp does. Friend's Lake (and Value Plus, for that matter) earned just about the same pace adjusted figure that they always do.

So, I just don't buy it, the race was slow!

[kenwoodallpromos]

All speed figures are bogus because they use no set standard. Beyers people "adjust" if numbers do not look right= 1 race is way too fast or way too slow during the day. Reference Beyer's books. / Nunmamker says other Beyer's like systems are better but DRF gave Beyer the license deal because he was more well knowm. It is not the holy grail of handicapping, obviously! / Did you check the weather the day in question to see how much rain?

[cj]

Speed figures are not perfect, but I wouldn't want to handicap without them. The weather was clear and sunny all day. I have no idea what you mean by "they use no set standard."

[JPinMaryland]

Why does CJ say the FL derby pace was fast? My DRF says the first 1/2 in 47; and 1:11 2/5 for 3/4. Most of the prep races this year seem to be at this pace. The LA derby and San Rafeal were fast paces.

I saw the FL derby but cant remember much about it. Looking at PPs, I would guess the pace was moderate, Value Plus led the way and then weakened. So it looks like Friends Lake stalked the pace and rallied when he needed to. Cliffie was bumped in the stretch.

A race like that, I would guess you are probably not going to see big speed numbers so the Beyer numbers are probably realistic but maybe misleading. Realistic in the sense that the race was not real fast, but misleading in the sense that perhaps Friends Lake or Cliffie had more in them.

Did anyone see the race, how much did Friends Lake or Cliffie have in them at the end? That might be uesful info.

I saw a bit about the track being too dry, but didnt catch all of it. My comments are based on just reading the PP, surface issues have not considered.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

The Florida Derby was run at a fast pace based on my methods.

[cj]

Gulfsteam is a slower track than those you mention, and the 1 1/8 races are notorious for very slow fractions. I never look at raw times without a track variant and a par for that particular racetrack. Also, the track at GP was very slow for route races that day. It was one of the slowest days variant wise over the last two years for route races.

[arkansasman]

In years of research, I have found that the good old speed index in the Daily Racing form correlates to finish higher than Beyer speed figures(avg of 3, 5, 10 etc.). The only explanation is that Speed Index does not have human intervention as opposed to Beyers.

Years ago, a horse ran at Oaklawn and won a stake. The owners were lobbying the person who made Beyers at Oaklawn in giving their horse a higher Beyer. One of the owners of the horse told me this. That is when I decided that Beyers were suspect.

[cj]

Originally posted by arkansasman
In years of research, I have found that the good old speed index in the Daily Racing form correlates to finish higher than Beyer speed figures(avg of 3, 5, 10 etc.). The only explanation is that Speed Index does not have human intervention as opposed to Beyers.


I'm not sure what you are talking about above, but if the premise is the "good old speed indexes" are better than Beyer numbers, I hope you bet a lot!

The guys that make the Beyers do a decent, but not perfect, job. I would seriously doubt one has ever been persuaded by a horse's connections to change a number though.

[Valuist]

I would be inclined to believe the Blue Grass #s are real. The big gap from 2nd to 3rd reconfirms this. Going into the race, Lion Heart was definitely the horse to beat and he ran big. Limehouse could've very likely run back to his Tampa Bay race and still finished 6 behind the top two. The Cliffs Edge was more difficult to figure, but he had some good 2YO numbers and had some road trouble in the Fla Derby.

What I'm more confused about was the Wood. Before the Wood and Blue Grass were run, I was sure that on paper the Wood was the stronger field, and I still believe top to bottom it was the better field, but I was really expecting a time of 1:48 or so; maybe even 1:47 4/5 over that concrete highway they were running on.

[Tuffmug]

Reviewed the videos of the Keeneland card on April 10 Blue Grass Day. Color of track much lighter and more dust being thrown in early races vs the Blue Grass.
Also, noticed that track color got much darker as they came into the final turn in the Blue Grass, indicating much more water on track. Perfect setup for a closer like Cliff's Edge.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Tuffmug
Perfect setup for a closer like Cliff's Edge.

add twelve more horses to get around........and do you think he can get to Lion Heart this time? Interesting ........to say the least

[Tuffmug]

While Cliff's Edge got the better of the juicing, Lion Hearts figures were also inflated. I'm saying throw them both out.

[Valuist]

Where is the evidence the numbers were inflated? 3YOs often show sudden development. And like I said earlier, that 6 length gap after the top two leads one to believe the winning fig was very strong. And that Kee surface was not especially fast that day, either.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Valuist
Where is the evidence the numbers were inflated? 3YOs often show sudden development. And like I said earlier, that 6 length gap after the top two leads one to believe the winning fig was very strong. And that Kee surface was not especially fast that day, either.

what do you think that CD track is going to be like Saturday....

just like Keeneland if you ask me. They always pave it for the derby....

[JPinMaryland]

what does the future condition of CD have to do with the inflation of numbers in a previous race? I dont get it.

[Valuist]

I think Churchill took some heat for the souped up track surface in 2001. Of course all real racing fans knew Monarchos didn't really run the 2nd fastest Derby but to casual fans they were impressed. A guy I work with was asking me if Monarchos was a lock to win the Triple Crown because he was the best horse since Secretariat. I tried explaining to him about speed figures and track variants but I don't think he was listening....must've been his Harvard education that couldn't comprehend it!

Lets just hope for a normal, unbiased track. Churchill usually is pretty good about being a neutral surface.

[rokitman]

I've got the Bluegrass about 8 TSN points too high because of a freaky high E2 that I find to be relatively common at Keeneland. When Lion Heart and Cliff lose it'll be because Lion Heart had to tangle with the fastest 9F horse in the field every step of the way and Cliff got lost behind a sea of horses, not because of that bad fig.

More nuggets of gold for you and yours.

[sjk]

The figure I have more problem with is for the Lexington the following Saturday. I make the figure much higher than I have seen elsewhere.

This has the unfortunate effect of giving Roses in May a number in the stratosphere.

Is there any logic as to why the variant for the two 1 1/16 mile races at the end of the card should be day and night different from the races earlier that day?

[rokitman]

??? I've seen both BRIS and TSN Lexington figs and they are both big. And I believe they are about right.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by rokitman
I've got the Bluegrass about 8 TSN points too high because of a freaky high E2 that I find to be relatively common at Keeneland. When Lion Heart and Cliff lose it'll be because Lion Heart had to tangle with the fastest 9F horse in the field every step of the way and Cliff got lost behind a sea of horses, not because of that bad fig. More nuggets of gold for you and yours.

Well spill it Rokit.....give us your pick......I smell a smarty fan? am I right?

[rokitman]

Originally posted by JustRalph
Well spill it Rokit.....give us your pick......I smell a smarty fan? am I right?

Yes and no. I do have Smarty ranked high but he's not my pick. I don't have "a pick." When I finally learned to stop having "a pick" in the Kentucky Derby, I started winning quite a bit of money. I'll play a pick 3 and 4 with my top 5 horses in the Derby. But no one heavier than the other. I'm not that smart.

[andicap]

Originally posted by rokitman
Yes and no. I do have Smarty ranked high but he's not my pick. I don't have "a pick." When I finally learned to stop having "a pick" in the Kentucky Derby, I started winning quite a bit of money. I'll play a pick 3 and 4 with my top 5 horses in the Derby. But no one heavier than the other. I'm not that smart.

I agree to an extent (I end up with two or three horses and bet the overlays) but everyone ALWAYS asks you who you like in the Derby, even if they don't pay attention any other horse race all damn year. So I always look like a buffoon to them because I don't give my longshot pick, the but the horse I like at the relatively shorter price because for them I just want to be right, don't care about value.

Its funny. Some people say the Derby is a great exotic play because you can get lots of overlays with lots of combos. But I find I don't win exactas unless I really have a feel for the race and can key a specific mid-priced horse or longshot.

Of course it is the one race where you can kick out the two chalks and have a decent chance of being right.

[rokitman]

Originally posted by andicap
I agree to an extent (I end up with two or three horses and bet the overlays) but everyone ALWAYS asks you who you like in the Derby, even if they don't pay attention any other horse race all damn year. So I always look like a buffoon to them because I don't give my longshot pick, the but the horse I like at the relatively shorter price because for them I just want to be right, don't care about value.

Its funny. Some people say the Derby is a great exotic play because you can get lots of overlays with lots of combos. But I find I don't win exactas unless I really have a feel for the race and can key a specific mid-priced horse or longshot.

Of course it is the one race where you can kick out the two chalks and have a decent chance of being right.

For exactas or triples on a a normal day, I agree, you have to have it dialed in more to make a smart play. Saturday, I wouldn't have nearly as much confidence in boxing my top 5 plays in the exacta as I will playing the pick 3. I expect that, out of the 5, I'll only have 3 with a chance by the time they get to the first turn. One will be in a unexpected dual to the death with Lion Heart, another will get shuffled off to Lousville or will have a nervous breakdown. Which ones, I do not know. With only 3 still alive in that calvalry charge, I would have no confidence that 2 of them will make the exacta. But a lot of confidence that one may win. And if it does, the odds are high that I'll have the pick 3. I'll cover the proceeding races deeper than I normally would. I wish there was a pick three ending with a 20 horse field every weekend.

[andicap]

RM,

where do you play in the city. Any of the OTB restaurant/theaters?

[rokitman]

Originally posted by andicap
RM,

where do you play in the city. Any of the OTB restaurant/theaters?

I'm about an hour and 20 minutes north of NYC. I play in a couple of the OTB's around here on Saturdays sometimes. That's just when I'm looking for charming atmosphere. My OTB exposure diminished with the advent of online wagering.

[andicap]

dutchess County?

[rokitman]

Originally posted by andicap
dutchess County?

Ulster. 2 minutes across the border from Orange. I'm from Newburgh originally.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by JPinMaryland
what does the future condition of CD have to do with the inflation of numbers in a previous race? I dont get it.


I think CD will be much like Keene was on blue grass day............