View Full Version : Balmoral late pick 4 Saturday 7/26

07-26-2014, 04:57 PM
Saved $12 on Wednesday when Jitterbug Jack became a late scratch. Still the same old tune. 3 of 4 in the pick 4.
Now 3 picks 4s in the books. Total invested $248 nothing returned. Net -248.

Balmoral pick 4 for Saturday 7/25

Just a heads up my usual style is to spend from $60 to $100 and cover most of the contenders. Today, I am singling a horse that is hardly a single with a driver that should never be singled on a $48 ticket(a little heavy given the circumstances, but the bright side is if it hits and the right horses get there this can pay very nicely). It just looks like the most logical approach to tackling a very tough and wide open pick 4.

As usual horses listed in post position order not preference.

10th) 1-2-3-5
Wide open affair to start this off.
1)Life is Good today-made a little break at the gate costing him position and he ended up last into a 54.3 last ½. Still managed to make up 4 lengths. The race before he left to tuck the 3 h, got shuffled to 8th turning for home and closed well. Race before that he was 2nd over, but his cover was just floating 1st over midpack, costing this horse position. The bad news is he could not quite get by his cover and had to settle for 3rd. 4 back was huge. Left, Parked almost to the ½ hard used to the top in the 2nd quarter, 2hole after that and finished well passing the horse he was behind, only to be outclosed. Very strong effort. This horse has had a lot of valid excuses and is a major player in here.
2) Holy chip-3rd over in the Best man Hanover race that came the last ½ in 54.3. He just can’t do much more than he did(nor can anyone else in this race). Race before hard used with a 26.0 ¼ move. Not sure it was a valid enough excuse to fade like he did, but not sure that is this horses style. Race before was stuck in the 9 hole and closed about as good as you can ask. If he gets a trip he has a chance and from the 2h, 2nd over is a reasonable possibility.
3) Real or Magic-Not really on top of his game. He has tactical speed to leave and sit a trip, which basically is what he has done the last 2-but not really impressive in the lane either start. Has solid figures and with the trip can get the job done.
5) Our Dragon King-rail road in the invite which is all you can ask him to do. Do not like the 5% driver is on as he had Delong up for his prior(to last) 3 races. 2 back got a good trip against Bestmanhanover and should have gone by, but seeing Best Man Hanover come back to win last week in 150 flat certainly make one more optimistic about this guy. I rate his last 3 races rock solid for this level. A major player in here.

Other notables
Park Lane Deputy-was parked the mile at Maywood in last and actually did well to only lose by 3 ¼. Prior effort in Cook County gives him a look with these. Prior efforts do not.
Dabestleaderever-Has a nice 2nd over trip in last vs weaker. Ran well, but he has to outclose a lot better horses tonight. A much better fit at the nw4500 level.
Furious Frank-just dominated much weaker competition. Get the c lass test tonight. Do not think he will pass. He has been this good in the past, but this is a double jump in classs and recent races at this level have been non competitive. If he was inside I would consider him, but in the 7 hole I will let him beat me.
Big Daddy Woo Woo-Put it together last week 2nd off layoff beating me out of a nice chunk of change in the pick 4. Was 2nd over but closed well, making up 4 ½ lengths in a 55.1 last half. He was a major player in the invites almost 2 years ago when he was last racing. That being said, outclosing some of the horse inside of him would be a very tall order, and I do not suspect he will be able to leave in here without paying the price.

1) State Street Liz-Left, pk ¼ taken back to 4 h shuffled to 8th entering the lane was closing solidly, looked like she may have run out of room late vs better. Prior was 3rd over and closed well, prior was sent to the top, pushed hard backstrech and held on decently at a higher class. Prior got the job done at his level with a 2 hole trip. I am going to take a shot and single this horse on the pick 4 to make it playable. Plenty of horses can get there but just taking advantage of the situation that I feel the 2 best horses besides this horse are drawn in the 8 and 9 hole.

Other notables
Rev me up-Ran well enough 2 and 3 back at Maywood at this level to be respected. However, Trackmaster gave this horse rather weak speed figures for the races and her last race at Balmoral was 2nd over and empty. It was a very fast 54.4 last ½, however, I think she should have done better.
Whistle Pig-drew outside last 2 and basically ran around the track against better. 3 back she ¼ moved in 26.2 2nd ¼ and gamely helf off the 4/5 favorite at the nw15000 level. However I did not give her that good of figure for the race nor did TM. Certainly should be a major player at this level as he was dominating at this level in April. That being said, not sure how much he(driver) was trying but she looked empty lane in back of the pack in last.
Love you Always-Would like this horse a lot if she was drawn inside. Was a major player at the nw 15000 level before scratching sick 6/15. Last 2 are decent enough. Last shuffled to last with a solid enough close in 27 flat after a rail ride and 2 back made a strong 1st over brush but could not clear. Once she could not clear it was lights out. Just not sure she has the speed to leave from the 8 hole and if not she has her work cut out.
See You at the Finish-Very solid every week. Last was 1st over to a 36-1 shot and got nailed by Party Hangover who came back to win at the nw15000 level. My knock is this horse has 1 wins and 9 seconds in his last 12 races and she is stuck outside.

12th race
1) Fancy Creek Elusive-Was in some really good races prior to his last. I am not sure what to make of his last. Got the perfect 2 hole trip after being pk 1/8 to tuck 2 hole. It looks like this horse was starting to close a bit when clear and then for some reason he just slowed abruptly late. Not sure if he ran out of room(they do not have a head on), he was between the leader and a horse closing inside of him or he just tired abruptly. Anyhow, his prior efforts make him very strong vs these and he has to be used.
5) Always the Sun-Was 5th over into a 27.4 last ¼ and made up 6 lengths. Highly impressive close from the 10 hole last out. The bad news is that that effort was far superior to anything he has done prior this year(including the May 24th win at this level where he closed ground in a ridiculously overpaced race). If he runs back to his last effort and can get a trip he has a big look in here. I am hoping he leaves.
6) Lenox Blue Chip-Didn’t use him last week, because he was a closer form the 9 hole, so he left from the hole in 27.2 ended up sitting a 2 hold trip and closed solidly, just could not hold off dabestleaderever. Now that this horse has left effectively I assume Warren will send again. There is not a lot of early speed in here so if he does leave should get a good trip either on the lead or a 2 hole trip again.

Of the rest do not care for the 2-3-4. The 7,8,9,10 are all contenders in here from a better post position, just do not think any of them are good enough to overcome the post and win. Just the fact there are 4 contenders, include 2 with the 2 leading drivers means that someone is bound to get a trip and perhaps win it, they will just do so without me.

13th race
1)Jerrico-Should get a lot of tote attention with the driver switch to Delong and due to the fact he almost caught Furious Frank who daylighted a bunch of these at this level 7/19. I would not get to carried away with that race however. Furious Frank was very hard used past the ¼ before settling in the 2 hole chasing a 53.4 ½, this guy was rail riding benefitting from an overpaced race. I think he has to be used(mainly because of the driver switch), but if gets overbet, I will probably try to beat him. In fact the only time he races well is when he rail rides. Very beatable.
2) Special Joe-This guy won 2 straight at the nw4500 level(once vs Illinois bred) then had a tough time competing at the nw 9500 level. Dropped to the nw 4000 level last time, but unforutunately ended up 1st over into a raging sharp Best Man Hanover, the first ¾’s in 122.2 and held on well enough considering. Should find this lower class very much to his liking. Clearly the horse to beat in here..
4) Wildcat Bobby-Wow, out of the blue this guy put in a huge, huge effort 1st over from the ½ after Gallactic Star brushed to the top. He was a strong 1st over looked to have Gallactic Star put away. Was a little rough gaited in the lane and just missed in a 5 horse photo vs cheaper. The race was uncharacteristically good for this horse also cannot fathom why they would want to race him 3 days later after that effort. He ran so well last out I have to toss him in. Perhaps he will be scratched out of here.
5) NO Fear No Doubt-Drops in class. Can’t fault last as he came home in 26.2 and had not chance from his position. Race before drew th 8 hole and just ran around the track. 3 back was 1st over and did little. He doesn’t appear to be much right now, but at the same time he consistently runs figures that are as good or better than these. Has to be used.

Other Notables
Casino Captor-You can pretty much draw a line through his last 2 races. Smolin tried to leave, then wimped out and took back to the 5hole. RR and got behind a wall of horses and had no chance. The race before Smolin got looped and parked the mile. 3 back he actually got to the top satethe trip and was beaten by 3 solid horses earning a decent figure for the level. This horse has to get a real good trip to win and I do not forsee one in here. He certainly doesn't get a trip when I think he is going to get one.

Rockin rumble-Actually ended up 2nd over from the 8 hole in the race that Furious Frank romped home in and did what he should have beat absolutely nothing(2 horses of note-1 was burned up early and the other Casino Captor had no chance). Prior efforts did not show much. 2 years ago this horse was winning the invite. That was then. For now, I do not see him beating these from the 8 hole

$48 ticket. Good luck.