HELP - Read the Footnotes

[kingfin66]

What is the story with this horse. He come up huge in the Fountain of Youth, then tanks in the Fla Derby. I read an article today where Violette scoffed at those that don't rank Read the Footnotes of Friend's Lake as contenders. I tried to search the article on the web but couldn't find it. Violette states:

"It's quite amusing that the Florida Derby is coming up a key race, and my horse or even Friends Lake isn't even really mentioned as top condtenders. It's mind boggling to follow some of these people's train of thought, but there is no question th Florida Derby was a key race, and I'm glad to be coming out of it. I wouldn't change anything."

So Friend's Lake and Read the Footnotes trainers to decide to forego an additional prep and stay in Florida rather than run in the Wood, Bluegrass or Wood. Violette totally downplays the layoff and believes that he is going to go up there and "have some fun.

Violette and John Kimmel, trainer of Friend's Lake, both dispute the Florida Derby speed figure, citing a poor track condition caused by the long delay between the race prior to the Fla Derby and the Derby itself (one hour). Kimmel also points at The Cliff's Edge's 20 point jump from the Florida to the Bluegrass as evidence of this suspect figure from the Florida.

So the question is, what do you make of Read the Footnotes, and to as lesser degree, Friend's Lake? They seem to have a point regarding the Florida being a key race (The Cliff's Edge, Tapit). But maybe Tapit was just recovered from his lung infection and moving forward and The Cliff's Edge was improving. Were it not for Read the Footnotes' peformance prior to the Florida, I would say that Violette is full of it. I would also feel much better had 'Read raced after this to prove his performance in the Florida was just a fluke or a bounce.

Anybody else have an opinion?

[Fastracehorse]

That horse is the only horse in my head.

I always look for a horse's top - did anybody run better than his Fountain of Youth, I'm not sure??

Then he ran a few maintenance races - can he top again in the Derby??

He is certainly a very attractive betting proposition for me.

fffastt

[kingfin66]

He ran lights out in the Fountain of Youth, just edging Second of June (the likely Derby favorite had he not gotten injured). He has the highest lifetime Beyer coming into the Derby.

The big thing to me regarding Read is whether the Florida Derby can be excused. It was hardly a maintenance race in my mind. He was a big favorite, had the race set up perfectly for him, then... he sputtered. Overall, I tend to agree with you that he is a solid horse.

[Valuist]

History is definitely NOT on his side. Derby winners are usually given tough training regimens; not 7 week layoffs. Look up all those Godolphin horses. And 1 1/8 mile preps are much more significant than the 1 1/16 ones (i.e. Fountain of Youth). There have been plenty of world beaters at 1 1/16 miles who couldn't hold up at 1 1/8 miles, let alone 1 1/4 miles. The Florida Derby has become a key race but Tapit clearly wasn't at his best and The Cliffs Edge has some road trouble at GP. Come to think of it, The Cliffs Edge has run great in Kentucky (liberal medication rules) and disappointed elsewhere.

[rokitman]

Interesting point about the medication rules. But I'm ready to put the Can't Win Off a Long Layoff and the Can't Win Without Running in the Big Preps rules into my Geldings Can't Win file. Or, perhaps, my Dahoss file. Can't decide.

Both Read and Minister Eric with be heavy in my tickets.