Did Ake Svanstedt Pick The Wrong Post Position In The Maple Leaf Trot Final

[Sea Biscuit]

Statistically speaking the 1 hole is probably the worst hole at Mohawk. Since Ake was one of the elimination winners he got to choose his own post for the final.

Here are the post position stats for Mohawk for trotters

Trot

…………..1.... 2... 3... 4... 5... 6.... 7... 8... 9 10 11

Starts 152 152 152 152 152 152 146 140 127 91 6

Win.... 11.. 11.. 16. 10.. 30. 29.. 17. 12... 9.. 5. 2

Win% 7.2 7.2 10.5 6.6 19.7 19.1 11.6 8.6 7.1 5.5 33.3

Are you kidding me? The difference between the 1 hole and the two middle holes 5 & 6 is almost like 12 percentage points.I also recall reading an article in which Randy Waples commented about SBSW in which he spoke about the 1 hole at Mohawk and I quote:

"I smelled something bad was up then..then watching him leave a quarter in 25.4 off the rail ...thats like a quarter in 24 flat from the middle of the gate ( theres a reason no one picks the rail in stake finals because its a tough position to leave out of)"

Could this decision to pick the 1 post, be the difference between losing and winning the final?

Bad post, a very fast 1st quarter (26.4) and a terrible bias against the front runners and still the horse loses by a mere nose.

I can tell you this folks that you'll be hearing from Sebas K for some time to come.

Your comments please.

[cmp92]

Statistically speaking the 1 hole is probably the worst hole at Mohawk. Since Ake was one of the elimination winners he got to choose his own post for the final.

Here are the post position stats for Mohawk for trotters

Trot

…………..1.... 2... 3... 4... 5... 6.... 7... 8... 9 10 11

Starts 152 152 152 152 152 152 146 140 127 91 6

Win.... 11.. 11.. 16. 10.. 30. 29.. 17. 12... 9.. 5. 2

Win% 7.2 7.2 10.5 6.6 19.7 19.1 11.6 8.6 7.1 5.5 33.3

Are you kidding me? The difference between the 1 hole and the two middle holes 5 & 6 is almost like 12 percentage points.I also recall reading an article in which Randy Waples commented about SBSW in which he spoke about the 1 hole at Mohawk and I quote:

"I smelled something bad was up then..then watching him leave a quarter in 25.4 off the rail ...thats like a quarter in 24 flat from the middle of the gate ( theres a reason no one picks the rail in stake finals because its a tough position to leave out of)"

Could this decision to pick the 1 post, be the difference between losing and winning the final?

Bad post, a very fast 1st quarter (26.4) and a terrible bias against the front runners and still the horse loses by a mere nose.

I can tell you this folks that you'll be hearing from Sebas K for some time to come.

Your comments please.







I thought Ake picking post one was odd, too. I don't know if the post made the difference. Modern Family got off the gate pretty quick and pushed pretty hard to get to the front. I'm not sure if there's going to be a variant for the track condition, but 26.4 for trotters on a sloppy track is a screaming quarter.

[imofe]

Statistically speaking the 1 hole is probably the worst hole at Mohawk. Since Ake was one of the elimination winners he got to choose his own post for the final.

Here are the post position stats for Mohawk for trotters

Trot

…………..1.... 2... 3... 4... 5... 6.... 7... 8... 9 10 11

Starts 152 152 152 152 152 152 146 140 127 91 6

Win.... 11.. 11.. 16. 10.. 30. 29.. 17. 12... 9.. 5. 2

Win% 7.2 7.2 10.5 6.6 19.7 19.1 11.6 8.6 7.1 5.5 33.3

Are you kidding me? The difference between the 1 hole and the two middle holes 5 & 6 is almost like 12 percentage points.I also recall reading an article in which Randy Waples commented about SBSW in which he spoke about the 1 hole at Mohawk and I quote:

"I smelled something bad was up then..then watching him leave a quarter in 25.4 off the rail ...thats like a quarter in 24 flat from the middle of the gate ( theres a reason no one picks the rail in stake finals because its a tough position to leave out of)"

Could this decision to pick the 1 post, be the difference between losing and winning the final?

Bad post, a very fast 1st quarter (26.4) and a terrible bias against the front runners and still the horse loses by a mere nose.

I can tell you this folks that you'll be hearing from Sebas K for some time to come.

Your comments please.








I don't know. Harper brushed in basically the same half and jogged. Ake's horse looked very uncomfortable to me. I know the conditions were anything but ideal, but I think the horse was a little off for what he is capable of. The post could have been a factor, but I don't think it was as the race played out.

[baconswitchfarm]

[QUOTE= Ake's horse looked very uncomfortable to me. .[/QUOTE]



It is hard to question a guy with so many wins. But, many in the business are questioning his determination to continue to race the horse barefoot when the track came up knee deep mud. He certainly didn't look as comfortable and good going as he did the week before. Maybe he wasn't getting hold of the track as well. Maybe he just got beat like great horses do sometimes.

[imofe]

Hard to believe a guy with that much experience never ran into similar conditions outside North America. What I saw that made me believe the horse was uncomfortable or something was just not right is the way the horse's head jerked every time Ake asked of him.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Hard to believe a guy with that much experience never ran into similar conditions outside North America. What I saw that made me believe the horse was uncomfortable or something was just not right is the way the horse's head jerked every time Ake asked of him.
The big difference was not much in post position as I believe that horse can win from anywhere. It was more a factor of an off track and a track bias that hurt Sebastian K. Did anyone hear if they put on shoes in the rain up there? He raced with them in Sweden in the rain I recall. If that the case, maybe the shoe was not conducive to the wet traprock.