Saratoga tote board

[Tape Reader]

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!

[Thebigguy]

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!


This is ridiculous. Good luck though.

[dirty moose]

This is ridiculous. Good luck though.

Hey, whatever works.

[Tape Reader]

This is ridiculous. Good luck though.

C’mon Guys/Gals, rag my simplistic system. I will buy you all drinks at Siro’s.

[Thebigguy]

C’mon Guys/Gals, rag my simplistic system. I will buy you all drinks at Siro’s.


Its nothing personal, and I think you know that. Its just about the dumbest thing I have ever heard in my life. There is so much dumb money and connections money and bad tip money up here, I just think its a horrible strategy.

[Tape Reader]

Its nothing personal, and I think you know that. Its just about the dumbest thing I have ever heard in my life. There is so much dumb money and connections money and bad tip money up here, I just think its a horrible strategy.

I see that your “join date” is 2013. Mine is 2007.

[Ocala Mike]

I would never scoff at tote board systems; like everything else, a given system can work some of the time and have hot streaks that can make you look like a handicapping genius.

A variation of Tape Reader's system is:

1. 20 minutes to post, horse is less than 1/2 its morning line (essentially, OPENS at less than 1/2 the morning line).

2. Horse drifts upward for the remainder of the betting, but never reaches the morning line.

3. System works best with horses not among the first 3-4 morning line choices.

Happy longshot hunting!

[Little Watermelon]

There was a horse running Saturday at Saratoga trained by Nick Esler that took money in his first start and had trouble out of the gate. Horse was 15-1 ML, went off at 9-2, I believe, and didn't hit the board. The ML maker misjudged what the betting would be but the horse ran to his ML odds. I played him based on the troubled trip first out and the money he took in a ten horse field first out.

I don't understand why one would wager based on ML, but if it works for you, that's great. As far as I understand the morning line, it is the maker's prediction of what the final odds on the horse will be, and I don't understand why it would figure into why you would wager on a horse.

[Tape Reader]

I don't understand why one would wager based on ML, but if it works for you, that's great. As far as I understand the morning line, it is the maker's prediction of what the final odds on the horse will be, and I don't understand why it would figure into why you would wager on a horse.

I agree that the ML is often inaccurate and that is built into my analysis. The way I see it there are three variables: ML odds maker, public and "other."

1. If the ML is way off then the public adjusts it and the odds remain adjusted. I’m not interested in this bet.

2. If the ML is accurate and "other" causes lower early, public corrects it to accurate late. This catches my attention. I like to see a big drop below the ML early and then a rise above ML late. I typically jot down the odds around 10 MTP. At Saratoga there is usually enough money in the pool at that time for a good sample.

[duncan04]

I see that your “join date” is 2013. Mine is 2007.


What difference does that make? :rolleyes: :bang:

[PICSIX]

In races with no scratches....play horses with M/L between 5 & 15 to 1 if off odds are double the M/L. Pass the race if there are more than 3 horses that qualify.

[NY BRED]

not for nothing, the real money generally appears DURING the race
which I thought had been "cured".

:bang:

[Robert Fischer]

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!

Interesting system. :ThmbUp:

[Tor Ekman]

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!
So how did your tote board system do over the weekend?

[Tape Reader]

So how did your tote board system do over the weekend?

I won. But because I did not have it well documented I did not post for fear of Red Board Police.

On Friday I hit an exacta box for $340 (6-1 over 24-1). On Saturday I hit second race exacta box for $55.50 (5.50-1 over 2.65-1). I also hit exacta box $26.80 and triple box $123 in last race (.95-1 over 8-1 over 10.30-1). I used a slight variation of what I originally posted in that I boxed the contenders early, and not all of them may have ended >ML. Also, on the second day I did a lot of socializing and missed betting several races.

When I was a kid (Catholic school) we had to write “I do so declare” on all test papers indicating that we did not cheat. I got smacked a lot but never for cheating.

I do so declare, Tape ReaderJ

[Ocala Mike]

I used a slight variation of what I originally posted in that I boxed the contenders early, and not all of them may have ended >ML.






And I intuitively feel that the proviso that your picks must end up >ML is unnecesary and, perhaps, diluting your profits. Would be interested in seeing a meeting-long workout of your system, showing horses who closed <ML vs. those that closed >ML otherwise meeting the rules.

[Capper Al]

Keep posting your hits, just note that they are posted after the race. I like tote-board discussions. Following the money helps. Generally, I prefer opening odds to closing odds with a few exceptions.

[Exotic1]

I won. But because I did not have it well documented I did not post for fear of Red Board Police.

On Friday I hit an exacta box for $340 (6-1 over 24-1). On Saturday I hit second race exacta box for $55.50 (5.50-1 over 2.65-1). I also hit exacta box $26.80 and triple box $123 in last race (.95-1 over 8-1 over 10.30-1). I used a slight variation of what I originally posted in that I boxed the contenders early, and not all of them may have ended >ML. Also, on the second day I did a lot of socializing and missed betting several races.

When I was a kid (Catholic school) we had to write “I do so declare” on all test papers indicating that we did not cheat. I got smacked a lot but never for cheating.

I do so declare, Tape ReaderJ



So you gave us the "super" system but you didn't give us the "Key to the Mint" system involving exotic plays. Just joking. Red Board Police are off through the summer. Keep on.

[WP1981]

I spent a horrible summer a few years ago with a system I developed, which I am sure has been done a million times before.

I would not accept odds that were less than the amount of starters in the race. Ie 10 horse field I would go with whomever was closest to 10-1. I KILLED it my first week. I was hitting at a very high clip and some of these horses were drifting up and winning at 25-1+. It was crazy how much I was winning and I looked like a genius.

I upped the ante and was broke the next week. I must have hit a lucky streak when I started and it was gone fast. It was very hard to break this method and that one week cost me several months of losing before I changed it up.

I'll still do it from time to time if the odds are crazy enough late. There was a 10-1ml at GP on Sunday that drifted up to 35 and damn near won. $39 place payout. I fear I will fall back into it if I go back.

[Dark Horse]

A line movement approach should obviously focus on where the smart money is. The logic behind it has to be strong. When does the smart money come in? In the approaches I'm aware of the answer is early-and-late, or in the interval.

Pattern 1: first line movement to at least half the ML.
line drifts back up until about two minutes before post time
late money bets the line down again


Pattern 2: first line movement to at least twice the ML.
smart money bets the line down in several drops of at least 1 point each (e.g. 10/1, 8/1, 7/1), until about two minutes before post time
lack of late money, i.e. money bet elsewhere, sends the line up again


Exemptions/adjustments:
When both patterns occur in the same race, the first is the one to bet (70% winning rate; sounds greater than it is, because the horse will be a big favorite).
When both patterns occur, and two horses fit in pattern 1, the second pattern is the (upset) play.

This is rather general, and I would only consider it as added piece of the puzzle. I would imagine that pure tote board players would add far greater definition. I would, however, be cautious about going against the smart money, so in that sense it could be a useful filter.

[Capper Al]

A line movement approach should obviously focus on where the smart money is. The logic behind it has to be strong. When does the smart money come in? In the approaches I'm aware of the answer is early-and-late, or in the interval.

Pattern 1: first line movement to at least half the ML.
line drifts back up until about two minutes before post time
late money bets the line down again


Pattern 2: first line movement to at least twice the ML.
smart money bets the line down in several drops of at least 1 point each (e.g. 10/1, 8/1, 7/1), until about two minutes before post time
lack of late money, i.e. money bet elsewhere, sends the line up again


Exemptions/adjustments:
When both patterns occur in the same race, the first is the one to bet (70% winning rate; sounds greater than it is, because the horse will be a big favorite).
When both patterns occur, and two horses fit in pattern 1, the second pattern is the (upset) play.

This is rather general, and I would only consider it as added piece of the puzzle. I would imagine that pure tote board players would add far greater definition. I would, however, be cautious about going against the smart money, so in that sense it could be a useful filter.

Good post. How long have you been playing this way?

[Dark Horse]

I don't play that way. Trying to detect the excellence of others may be interesting, but not as interesting as the process of attaining one's own excellence. Along the lines of Heisenberg's: "I'm not in danger. I am the danger." But I do respect those who wield a skillful sword, so if sharps start pounding a horse that's not my horse, I won't change to that horse, but I may get out of the way.

For those interested, source is 'the tote board is alive and well'. May be somewhat outdated.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0896509435/ref=x_gr_w_bb?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwgoodco-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0896509435&SubscriptionId=1MGPYB6YW3HWK55XCGG2

[RaceBookJoe]

I don't play that way. Trying to detect the excellence of others may be interesting, but not as interesting as the process of attaining one's own excellence. Along the lines of Heisenberg's: "I'm not in danger. I am the danger." But I do respect those who wield a skillful sword, so if sharps start pounding a horse that's not my horse, I won't change to that horse, but I may get out of the way.

For those interested, source is 'the tote board is alive and well'. May be somewhat outdated.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0896509435/ref=x_gr_w_bb?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwgoodco-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0896509435&SubscriptionId=1MGPYB6YW3HWK55XCGG2

Gaines grabbed all that from Holloway. "The Talking Tote" was the original book, still have it here actually.