Over Bet Horses

[Tara73]

Explain in your opinion what constitutes an over bet horse. Which factor or combination of factors contributes to an underlay. Not necessarily bad favorites but horses that are getting too much play.

I'll say horses projecting to improve because of pedigree or trainer change. Also, horses off of a big win.

[cashmachine]

I would say horses who conform well-known and popular angles - they become underlays after the race start. For example, horses who's place odds disproportionally large comparing to the win odds (doctor Z system bets).

[Overlay]

Not necessarily bad favorites but horses that are getting too much play.
Top figures (especially those that are widely or publicly available)
Hot/leading jockeys

[Tor Ekman]

The "pretty" gray horse

[Pensacola Pete]

Usually a combination of a low morning line, the outstanding speed or composite figure and good recent finishes. If the horse has the top "Beyer," BRIS Prime, Ragozin and Thorograph speed figures, has good recent form, and is listed on the morning line at 2-1 or less, it's probably going to get killed by the "Bet ... the ... best ... horse ... no ... matter ... what ... the ... odds ... are," folks. If it also has a top trainer and/or jockey, that will make it worse.

[cnollfan]

Expensive sale horses.

[davew]

a horse you think has a 25-30% chance of winning that has 60%+ of the win pool

[Some_One]

a horse you think has a 25-30% chance of winning that has 60%+ of the win pool

If you think that a horse with 60% of the win pool only has a 25-30% chance, you're wrong 95 times out of 100.

[johnhannibalsmith]

One that has worked for me and is still one of the few angles that I haven't abandoned completely for one reason or another:

A horse - particularly one racing at lower tier circuits/tracks that has exceptionally good recent form at one particular track where it raced exclusively for some time - and is now moving to a new track/circuit, especially if it shows no work at all over the new surface.

[Some_One]

One that has worked for me and is still one of the few angles that I haven't abandoned completely for one reason or another:

A horse - particularly one racing at lower tier circuits/tracks that has exceptionally good recent form at one particular track where it raced exclusively for some time - and is now moving to a new track/circuit, especially if it shows no work at all over the new surface.

Let's simplify that rule, look at opposing horses who are doing something new for the first time, manly distance, track or surface.

[cashmachine]

Let's simplify that rule, look at opposing horses who are doing something new for the first time, manly distance, track or surface.
Sounds like very promising angle; I will investigate it.

[Longshot6977]

Let's simplify that rule, look at opposing horses who are doing something new for the first time, manly distance, track or surface.

I don't think 5 furlongs is a very manly distance. Maybe the Belmont's 1 1/2 miles is a manly distance to some and even 1 1/4 is a manly distance.

Seriously though, in many races, several of the horses are doing new things for the 1st time, not sure how this angle would work. Are you saying to look for a sole opposing horse trying something new?

[pandy]

Obviously this is subjective, but one thing I've noticed from my research is that horses that go off much lower than their morning line (if the morning line is decent), are bad bets. Sure, some win, and there is the occasional "hot horse" but if you bet all of these, you'll lose big.

For example, say a horse is 8-1 on the ML and goes off at 5-2. Bet all of these and you will lose a lot more money than if you bet 5-2 shots that are 5-2 to 7-2 on the ML.

The reason why these are horrible bets is obvious. Even a person that doesn't put a lot of effort into making the ML is going to look at the obvious, like what class the horse has been racing in, and the horse's speed figures and overall record. If the morning line guy makes a horse 8-1, the horse doesn't look that strong on paper. So, if the horse gets bet down, most of the time it's a terrible bet. I've found that these are the lowest ROI bets that can possibly be made.

The highest ROI bets are just the opposite. Horses that go off much higher than the ML. Again, it helps if the line is good, and it's even better if you make your own line.

Favorites that are not favorites on the ML are generally bad bets. An 8-5 shot that is 2-1 on the morning line is generally a much better bet than an 8-5 shot that is 4-1 on the morning line, and so on.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Let's simplify that rule, look at opposing horses who are doing something new for the first time, manly distance, track or surface.

I think a lot of those other "something new" variables (surface and distance especially) are things that catch the eye and cause people to be skeptical more than the move to a new track surface. Purely unrefined opinion and not verifiable fact, but I just think it gets overlooked or dismissed as a possible handicap way more than those other variables are.

[Some_One]

I think a lot of those other "something new" variables (surface and distance especially) are things that catch the eye and cause people to be skeptical more than the move to a new track surface. Purely unrefined opinion and not verifiable fact, but I just think it gets overlooked or dismissed as a possible handicap way more than those other variables are.

I have to disagree, especially with the way most people treat speed figures like religion. Look at the polytrack flare ups on this form, it usually is people complaining that 'form' doesn't hold, meaning that they expect that horse who runs a 95 on dirt to run a 95 on poly, of course that isn't necessarily true. More recently, look at Princess of Sylmar, she's a beast in NY, but doesn't look the same at SA in the BC last year and at Del last weekend, and she went off 1-5?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Any horse dropping in class after a best career speed figure is an immediate toss. Especially if they won their last race.

Yeah, I know it rarely happens, but when they go off at 8/5 or less I feel like I'm stealing money. I also wager hard on them not hitting the board in Exotic wagering.

[BMustang]

On a more localized basis, at Belterra Park when Perry Outz is riding a Billy Hays/Joe Woodard horse.

While he wins with a high percentage of these, there is no value whatsoever, as he automatically gets pounded at the window, regardless of the horses ability.

Similarly in the old days at Churchill Downs when Pat Day would get bet down simply because Pat Day was riding the horse.

[Overlay]

Similarly in the old days at Churchill Downs when Pat Day would get bet down simply because Pat Day was riding the horse.
You must be channeling me. :) That's exactly who I was remembering when I made my earlier comment about hot jockeys being overbet, primarily as a result of having formerly lived in Kentucky from the late '80's through the mid-90's -- although, as you say, the same thing is still happening today.