Worst Morning Line odds maker

[SpotPlays]

Is there a worse ML maker than the guy at Delaware Park? Every day huge underlays. Saturday, Hardest Core, tops of prime power, is 15-1 ML, goes off 5/2 and wins easy.

[letswastemoney]

I'm convinced some ML oddsmakers make the odds high on purpose to bait handicappers into giving the race consideration, with the logic that when handicappers find their "value" gets pounded, they play the race anyway since they put effort into handicapping.

Not many people will agree with that.

[HuggingTheRail]

Granted it is a very low level track, but the ML @ Hastings this year has been brutal many times.... It doesn't impact what I do or do not play, but if you're going to provide one, at least be in the ballpark...

[Stillriledup]

I'm convinced some ML oddsmakers make the odds high on purpose to bait handicappers into giving the race consideration, with the logic that when handicappers find their "value" gets pounded, they play the race anyway since they put effort into handicapping.

Not many people will agree with that.

But you know how horseplayers are, if they constantly see longshots getting bet down to favoritism and winning, it "looks bad" looks like the races are shady......and we know that's not true, but if the perception gets a horseplayer to stop playing, it hurts all of us.

[pandy]

It's just a bad line, don't read anything into it. Either the person doing the line doesn't care or they have a 3 day draw and he or she has to do the line for the third day off of entries, which happens more than you know. Many tracks don't care about the line (although they should).

[Silver florin]

Is there a worse ML maker than the guy at Delaware Park? Every day huge underlays. Saturday, Hardest Core, tops of prime power, is 15-1 ML, goes off 5/2 and wins easy.

At most minor league tracks like De the hotdog vendor or the bathroom attendant double as ML makers,and that is no lie. :lol:

[banacek]

Granted it is a very low level track, but the ML @ Hastings this year has been brutal many times.... It doesn't impact what I do or do not play, but if you're going to provide one, at least be in the ballpark...

Yeah. It has to be someone new, isn't it? I've always been fairly impressed with the ML maker at Hastings in the past. Whoever is doing it this year has to be new...and confused. But the last couple of weeks seems to be a little better, so maybe they are figuring it out.

[jballscalls]

Yeah. It has to be someone new, isn't it? I've always been fairly impressed with the ML maker at Hastings in the past. Whoever is doing it this year has to be new...and confused. But the last couple of weeks seems to be a little better, so maybe they are figuring it out.

They had to replace Matt Jukich who left to go to Northlands and does a real good job with the M/L in my opinion.

Not sure who does it now.

[cutchemist42]

Is there a worse ML maker than the guy at Delaware Park? Every day huge underlays. Saturday, Hardest Core, tops of prime power, is 15-1 ML, goes off 5/2 and wins easy.

Wow, thats bad....

[HuggingTheRail]

They had to replace Matt Jukich who left to go to Northlands and does a real good job with the M/L in my opinion.

Not sure who does it now.

Matt was/is awesome. He is starting to get more comfortable with his race calling at NP as well :ThmbUp:

[therussmeister]

At most minor league tracks like De the hotdog vendor or the bathroom attendant double as ML makers,and that is no lie. :lol:
Just as long as the bathroom attendant doesn't double as the hot dog vendor I'm ok with that.

[Dark Horse]

It bothers me a little, because it slows things down, that Southern California tracks are always the last to post the ML's. Check out Equibase right now. All tracks for Thursday have ML's (it's Tuesday today), except Del Mar. Same goes for Santa Anita. Jon White is just too bloody slow. And then he ends up with lines that add up to 135%... So he's not even using the extra time for greater accuracy. If you can't get the lines out in the same time frame as everybody else, get someone else to do it.

[VeryOldMan]

Isn't this susceptible to a proof?

I assume the first level is making sure the implied probability of success across the field equals 100% minus the takeout, give or take a little slack. But isn't the data available at the next level to see how well: (i) the final odds correlate with the ML, and/or (ii) how well the ML correlates with the probability of success? Seems like we could test these levels.

ML oddsmaker strikes me as a thankless job, particularly at the smaller tracks where there is a lot of pool manipulation. I'll defer to the racetrack guys on the board to correct me if I'm wrong about the nature of the job.

[Dark Horse]

It should be easy enough to write a little ML program, based on pp's (past performances/public perception), workouts, etc.

I usually catch the conversations between Jon White and Michelle Yu. Jon is the linesmaker and he's as square as they come in terms of betting; he's focused on the favorites. Michelle is ten times sharper, and correctly picks many a longshot. So setting morninglines is probably really bad for the betting mindset. The ML's should reflect public perception, but Jon rarely, if ever, separates that from his own choices.

[VeryOldMan]

I assume the first level is making sure the implied probability of success across the field equals 100% plus the takeout, give or take a little slack.
Sorry - trying to fix the probabilities with takeout.

[TrifectaMike]

Is there a worse ML maker than the guy at Delaware Park? Every day huge underlays. Saturday, Hardest Core, tops of prime power, is 15-1 ML, goes off 5/2 and wins easy.

If properly schooled an excellent morning line can be gotten in a few minutes.

Mike

[Tara73]

I don't know who is the worse morning line person but I will say the NYRA morning line is exceptionally accurate.

[pandy]

I don't know who is the worse morning line person but I will say the NYRA morning line is exceptionally accurate.


I think Jason Blewitt does the ML, and it is very good, for sure. In my opinion, all tracks should have good morning lines, but for a major circuit, it's embarrassing if the line is bad and it's poor customer service.

[overthehill]

I dont always believe that a horse getting bet down strongly from it ml odds means the ml makes bad odds. I would say that if the ml guy consistently gets the first two choices right thats pretty good. Having said that it has been disappointing for me to see that all too often the odds makers wil make horses 20 or 30-1 that look like contenders off their workouts. at los alamos some horse was a second time maiden and was 12 or 15-1 despite having worked out in 46 and change from the gate. i think it went off 8-5. or so.

one of the worst i have ever seen was last night at presque isle. admittedly the 5 year old mare had shown nothing in 5 previous starts and had an obcure trainer owner. i guess based on that it was listed at 30-1. But the mare was dropping into madn claiming 7,000, was adding blinkers for the first time and the trainer was 1 for 1 when adding blinkers.

and biggest But of all the horse had just work 1:12.1 breezing which was faster than any horse in the field had ever run! Sent off at 8-1 she opened lengths on the field at the start and was never headed. for me the moral is
to alway s look at every entrant in field.

[jballscalls]

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?

I think you'd end up getting truer odds in some ways, especially in horizontal wagers in the later legs.

I do think people would possibly give more credence to 'public handicappers' selections and maybe use those as a guide?

Personally I've always thought the M/L is way overrated. You're getting one person, albeit generally a well-informed person's opinions of what the odds are going to be.

[pandy]

There has to be a morning line. There are many recreational gamblers who bet horses as if they were playing a slot machine and they use the morning line. I've gone into off track betting centers and seen many people who come in, grab a sheet that has the entries and line and bet off of that. Without a ML, they'd just bet another track.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think Jason Blewitt does the ML, and it is very good, for sure. In my opinion, all tracks should have good morning lines, but for a major circuit, it's embarrassing if the line is bad and it's poor customer service.Eric Donovan is the regular morning line maker at NYRA

[pandy]

Eric Donovan is the regular morning line maker at NYRA


Yes, that's right, very good.

[cj]

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?



I think it is a great idea.

[johnhannibalsmith]

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?

...

I always thought it would be fun (albeit impossible with the standard software) to take a slightly different approach and offer the track morning line and then a couple of fair value lines from other sources side-by-side with the track line for a change of perspective and maybe even a little worthwhile customer assistance in their game.

[mountainman]

If properly schooled an excellent morning line can be gotten in a few minutes.

Mike

Not an entire card.

[Cholly]

At the track I worked at we talked about doing no morning line. I'm curious what you guys would think about that?

Bad idea

[mountainman]

ML oddsmaker strikes me as a thankless job, particularly at the smaller tracks

You're correct, sir. And I call you friend. Was rated 12th most accurate in nation year before last, and am pretty sure prediction of faves now north of magical 70% mark. But everybody misses (badly) now and then-and the players ALWAYS notice.

And whomever unloads on chalks here can sometimes ruin my line.

Just for the record..I do it at my morning desk while multi-tasking, often in a hurry, and sometimes without the beyers. Apologies for that, but there just aren't enough hours....

[Pensacola Pete]

Back in the day, before simulcasting, he morning line maker at some tracks would deliberately make a standout horse much higher than it should have been. A horse that should have been 7/5 was listed at 8-1 or higher. Everybody who could read the Form knew that the line was whacked. But they took the bait. People would go out there, figuring that the horse's morning line meant that it would get off at 5-1 or higher. Of course, that didn't happen. The horse got banged down to even money anyway. Another trick was to list a standout horse from another track at 10-1, when the track knew the horse wouldn't show up for the race. Delta was notorious for doing this every few weekends in the 1970s. People from the Houston area would flock to the track, hoping for a big price on an easy winner, only to find the horse was scratched. The Louisiana Racing Commission finally put a stop to it when a horse's connections saw the horse listed in the Form for a Starter Handicap, phoned the Commission and told them that they never even entered the horse into the race. If memory serves, that horse's name was Roxborough Rocket.

[Sapio]

You're correct, sir. And I call you friend. Was rated 12th most accurate in nation year before last, and am pretty sure prediction of faves now north of magical 70% mark. But everybody misses (badly) now and then-and the players ALWAYS notice.

And whomever unloads on chalks here can sometimes ruin my line.

Just for the record..I do it at my morning desk while multi-tasking, often in a hurry, and sometimes without the beyers. Apologies for that, but there just aren't enough hours....

Hi mountainman

Congratulations on you ranking. Do you know the criteria that was used?

By the way, I enjoy your show. It is a pleasant experience... something very human and natural about it.

Thomas Sapio

[mountainman]

Hi mountainman

Congratulations on you ranking. Do you know the criteria that was used?

By the way, I enjoy your show. It is a pleasant experience... something very human and natural about it.

Thomas Sapio

I think the criteria was one-dimensional and based simply on percentage of favorites correctly predicted. (I realize that's not scientific, and field size comes into play.)

Tx concerning the show. I'm a low-tech, intuitive handicapper who goes into a race open-minded, rather than imposing some formula or rigid belief- system. Aside from trip and bias notes on formulator, a track profile for mnr and crude (excel spread-sheet) d-base that catalogues new horses are my only concessions to the computer.

Nancy and I are far past pretension on camera and just try to keep it real. Sometimes TOO real in my case. I'm usually in hot water for some remark or other.

[letswastemoney]

Back in the day, before simulcasting, he morning line maker at some tracks would deliberately make a standout horse much higher than it should have been. A horse that should have been 7/5 was listed at 8-1 or higher. Everybody who could read the Form knew that the line was whacked. But they took the bait. People would go out there, figuring that the horse's morning line meant that it would get off at 5-1 or higher. Of course, that didn't happen. The horse got banged down to even money anyway. Another trick was to list a standout horse from another track at 10-1, when the track knew the horse wouldn't show up for the race. Delta was notorious for doing this every few weekends in the 1970s. People from the Houston area would flock to the track, hoping for a big price on an easy winner, only to find the horse was scratched. The Louisiana Racing Commission finally put a stop to it when a horse's connections saw the horse listed in the Form for a Starter Handicap, phoned the Commission and told them that they never even entered the horse into the race. If memory serves, that horse's name was Roxborough Rocket. Wow, so there is some truth to my theory, or at least there used to be.

[Valuist]

Laddie Boy was priced at 10-1 for the 8th at Ellis today and opened at 6-5. Granted, there was two scratches, but how often does a horse beaten less than 2 lengths by Bayern run at the Pea Patch?

[therussmeister]

I dont always believe that a horse getting bet down strongly from it ml odds means the ml makes bad odds. I would say that if the ml guy consistently gets the first two choices right thats pretty good. Having said that it has been disappointing for me to see that all too often the odds makers wil make horses 20 or 30-1 that look like contenders off their workouts. at los alamos some horse was a second time maiden and was 12 or 15-1 despite having worked out in 46 and change from the gate. i think it went off 8-5. or so.

one of the worst i have ever seen was last night at presque isle. admittedly the 5 year old mare had shown nothing in 5 previous starts and had an obcure trainer owner. i guess based on that it was listed at 30-1. But the mare was dropping into madn claiming 7,000, was adding blinkers for the first time and the trainer was 1 for 1 when adding blinkers.

and biggest But of all the horse had just work 1:12.1 breezing which was faster than any horse in the field had ever run! Sent off at 8-1 she opened lengths on the field at the start and was never headed. for me the moral is
to alway s look at every entrant in field.

For me the moral is, never look at a morning line.

[JackS]

Isn't the morningliners job to handicap the handicappers? i.e, -he may make a horse the 8/5 favorite but if you asked him for his personal opinion what he really liked it could be be completely different.
Personally, I like an inaccurate ML as I believe this is an edge that many players fail to see.