Low Takeout Pick 4 with Carryover seed. Bad idea?

[Stillriledup]

Ok, so, here's a theory.

This would have to be done by a major track, Del Mar or Saratoga, but lets say Del Mar for the sake of this example. Last year, the Pick 4 pool on opening day there was 700k and on Pacific Classic day it was a million.....and most days, the pool is at least 500k, especially on the weekends.

Now, what about lowering the takeout to 14% AND making a 50,000 carryover on Saturday's and Sunday's?

Wouldn't the pool be in the 1.5 to 2 million dollar range on the weekends if this happened? If the pool is between 700 and 1 million anyway, wouldn't the much lower takeout as well as the extra 50k get the pool to basically double?

Also, the excitement around this wager would get most horseplayers to spend a lot of time handicapping the last 4 at Del Mar , which would mean the other pools, at normal takeout, would see a nice spike in wagering, people are going to bet those races if they spent a lot of time handicapping 4 races in advance to bet the pick 4.

Have an extra 10 mins to post for Leg 1 of the pick 4, make it like an "event" make it a bet that you just HAVE to play because "everyone" is involved. TVG can hype this bet to the moon also.

Is this a terrible idea?
What does the math say?

[tanner12oz]

Ok, so, here's a theory.

This would have to be done by a major track, Del Mar or Saratoga, but lets say Del Mar for the sake of this example. Last year, the Pick 4 pool on opening day there was 700k and on Pacific Classic day it was a million.....and most days, the pool is at least 500k, especially on the weekends.

Now, what about lowering the takeout to 14% AND making a 50,000 carryover on Saturday's and Sunday's?

Wouldn't the pool be in the 1.5 to 2 million dollar range on the weekends if this happened? If the pool is between 700 and 1 million anyway, wouldn't the much lower takeout as well as the extra 50k get the pool to basically double?

Also, the excitement around this wager would get most horseplayers to spend a lot of time handicapping the last 4 at Del Mar , which would mean the other pools, at normal takeout, would see a nice spike in wagering, people are going to bet those races if they spent a lot of time handicapping 4 races in advance to bet the pick 4.

Have an extra 10 mins to post for Leg 1 of the pick 4, make it like an "event" make it a bet that you just HAVE to play because "everyone" is involved. TVG can hype this bet to the moon also.

Is this a terrible idea?
What does the math say?

I dont understand the carryover portion?

the angle that most tracks take with the pick 4 is guaranteeing a pool...at the big tracks this doesn't really seem to be an issue anyway...the low takeout is key...hell I played the pick 4 at Sam Houston alot this spring...why? Cuz takeout us like 12%. You'd be floored to see what a 12% take does to an even logical sequence

[DeltaLover]

In my opinion, the objective should not be just to inflate the pools using any kind of a gimmick but to provide the right circumstances for the crowd to increase bet sizing, viewing horse betting more like stock investing rather than playing lotto.

I am also not a fan of long exotics as they just create an illusion of large payoffs, without providing enough flexibility and potential profitability as bets.

The real boost for the game, that will probably restate it as the top betting game, will come ONLY by offering FIXED ODDS and nothing else. This is how the game is played in most of the more “advanced” countries (always from the horse betting perspective of course).

Having fixed odds, it is possible to create any kind of P3, P4, P6 or P20, without having any restriction in the selection of the races and more importantly, knowing in advance the return of your bet. Going further, the introduction of fixed odds will gradually minimize the crowd's interest in gimmicks, as it will eventually realize that they represent inferior betting propositions.

[AndyC]

Ok, so, here's a theory.

This would have to be done by a major track, Del Mar or Saratoga, but lets say Del Mar for the sake of this example. Last year, the Pick 4 pool on opening day there was 700k and on Pacific Classic day it was a million.....and most days, the pool is at least 500k, especially on the weekends.

Now, what about lowering the takeout to 14% AND making a 50,000 carryover on Saturday's and Sunday's?

Wouldn't the pool be in the 1.5 to 2 million dollar range on the weekends if this happened? If the pool is between 700 and 1 million anyway, wouldn't the much lower takeout as well as the extra 50k get the pool to basically double?

Also, the excitement around this wager would get most horseplayers to spend a lot of time handicapping the last 4 at Del Mar , which would mean the other pools, at normal takeout, would see a nice spike in wagering, people are going to bet those races if they spent a lot of time handicapping 4 races in advance to bet the pick 4.

Have an extra 10 mins to post for Leg 1 of the pick 4, make it like an "event" make it a bet that you just HAVE to play because "everyone" is involved. TVG can hype this bet to the moon also.

Is this a terrible idea?
What does the math say?

Let's say for the sake of the discussion that your idea is terrific. To implement the idea there would first have to be agreement between the horsemen, track and the state as to how the reduced 14% rate is divided. Then there would be a secondary negotiation as to who would pay for the weekend carryover money. Personally, I think there is a better chance of Iran voluntarily giving up their nuclear program before you would see any sort of agreement described above.

[Stillriledup]

Let's say for the sake of the discussion that your idea is terrific. To implement the idea there would first have to be agreement between the horsemen, track and the state as to how the reduced 14% rate is divided. Then there would be a secondary negotiation as to who would pay for the weekend carryover money. Personally, I think there is a better chance of Iran voluntarily giving up their nuclear program before you would see any sort of agreement described above.

True, there's a lot of people wanting their hand in the pie for sure, but in theory, does the math say this would make them MORE money, or, do you think its a money loser.?

[Stillriledup]

In my opinion, the objective should not be just to inflate the pools using any kind of a gimmick but to provide the right circumstances for the crowd to increase bet sizing, viewing horse betting more like stock investing rather than playing lotto.

I am also not a fan of long exotics as they just create an illusion of large payoffs, without providing enough flexibility and potential profitability as bets.

The real boost for the game, that will probably restate it as the top betting game, will come ONLY by offering FIXED ODDS and nothing else. This is how the game is played in most of the more “advanced” countries (always from the horse betting perspective of course).

Having fixed odds, it is possible to create any kind of P3, P4, P6 or P20, without having any restriction in the selection of the races and more importantly, knowing in advance the return of your bet. Going further, the introduction of fixed odds will gradually minimize the crowd's interest in gimmicks, as it will eventually realize that they represent inferior betting propositions.

Fixed odds are a great thing, just like NFL betting, i can bet 50k on a game and the spread and the odds stay the same. I don't depress my own price with my big bet like i do in horse racing.

The only problem i see is who's going to fix the odds and put up the money?

If someone makes a horse 5-1 and a big syndicate knows he's really an 8-5 shot, they might bet 200k to win...who's going to foot that million if they win? That's the only problem i see.

[dirty moose]

Fixed odds are a great thing, just like NFL betting, i can bet 50k on a game and the spread and the odds stay the same. I don't depress my own price with my big bet like i do in horse racing.

The only problem i see is who's going to fix the odds and put up the money?

If someone makes a horse 5-1 and a big syndicate knows he's really an 8-5 shot, they might bet 200k to win...who's going to foot that million if they win? That's the only problem i see.

If they had multi pool betting this could work. Say you get one pool on horse 1 that closes 10 MTP and another that closes @ post time. Or is this too far fetched? (Nyquil is kicking in)

[Stillriledup]

If they had multi pool betting this could work. Say you get one pool on horse 1 that closes 10 MTP and another that closes @ post time. Or is this too far fetched? (Nyquil is kicking in)

There's no reason this wouldn't work. People who are concerned about odds drops can place their bets and know their official price before the race starts. They can also bet again if they see something in the 2nd pool.

[jballscalls]

There's no reason this wouldn't work. People who are concerned about odds drops can place their bets and know their official price before the race starts. They can also bet again if they see something in the 2nd pool.

well if they feed in 50k they would need to see an extra 50k in revenue right?

now at 14% take out they're only getting that much on on-track bets, which probably won't go up that much as the crowds at del mar are already big. but i'm sure there would be a significant bump on track.

Now off track, it depends what they're simo fee rate is. Most tracks are 3% but the big boys get a point or two more, so let's say it's 5%.

So for off track wagers, they'd need to see a million more in the pool to make up 50k if there was no increase on-track handle.

Personally I'd be dubious that a pick 4 would see a million dollar handle increase with just a 50k carryover.

Plus as AndyC said above, you have to have all parties in agreement, which is often more difficult than his Iran example. Cause if the horsemen/purses get a cut of the rake, and don't participate in putting up $$ for the 'carryover/seed' now the track needs to have even more of a handle jump. Given the numbers, I don't see how your example would end up being a profitable situation for the track. Plus you're taking away money that could be played on WPS/Exotic wagers which they get a higher take of than the low take wagers, which often hold money up for 3 or 4 races. I just don't think there is enough "new" money coming in to offset that.

[Stillriledup]

well if they feed in 50k they would need to see an extra 50k in revenue right?

now at 14% take out they're only getting that much on on-track bets, which probably won't go up that much as the crowds at del mar are already big. but i'm sure there would be a significant bump on track.

Now off track, it depends what they're simo fee rate is. Most tracks are 3% but the big boys get a point or two more, so let's say it's 5%.

So for off track wagers, they'd need to see a million more in the pool to make up 50k if there was no increase on-track handle.

Personally I'd be dubious that a pick 4 would see a million dollar handle increase with just a 50k carryover.

Plus as AndyC said above, you have to have all parties in agreement, which is often more difficult than his Iran example. Cause if the horsemen/purses get a cut of the rake, and don't participate in putting up $$ for the 'carryover/seed' now the track needs to have even more of a handle jump. Given the numbers, I don't see how your example would end up being a profitable situation for the track. Plus you're taking away money that could be played on WPS/Exotic wagers which they get a higher take of than the low take wagers, which often hold money up for 3 or 4 races. I just don't think there is enough "new" money coming in to offset that.

Good post.

I think that the "math" would have to be done, and you're right, the 50k has to be made up somewhere. Maybe they can have a 20k carryover and get somewhat close to the same effect a 50k carryover might get. I don't know for sure, but i think that a 700k pool at 22.5 pct (or whatever the takeout is currently for this bet) would be at least double if the take went down to 14% and 50k was added. So, you would get an additional 700k in bets by lowering take and offering up a carryover.

Other factor would be there would be extra money going into the bettors pockets and some of that would be rebet.

While you are taking away money that's being "held" you also have people who don't normally play the pick 4, playing it for the first time because of the carryover and takeout reduction. That means, a new segment of handicappers are seriously handicapping the last 4 races....and even though their money is being held, they still are more likely to wager on those races individually, they don't want all their hard handicapping work to go to waste.