HSH v9 is coming - You will want to read this

[Dave Schwartz]

In the relatively near future - certainly before the Breeder's Cup - I will be releasing HSH version 9.

The featured "new technology" that will be released is "UNIQUE PAST PERFORMANCES."


What if you had a handicapping method or system that was based upon information that gave YOU a truly unique view of each horse's capabilities?

Please do not confuse this technology with anything currently available. This is NOT simply filtering existing pacelines to show only what you want to see. Neither is it simply adding rows or columns.

We worked long and hard to figure this out.

It began with several whiteboard sessions where we looked at what was wrong with our attack on the game. We reached several highly negative conclusions in those sessions. Among those were:


Everyone has the same information.
There is not enough data for each horse.
The paceline approach is too time sensitive.
There are too many facets of the game missing from the current paceline system.
The entire system is too speed-rating-sensitive.
The entire value-based process is too tote-change-sensitive.



There are other problems that we came up with, but these were enough for us to get to thinking about potential solutions. As we whiteboarded for those solutions, attempting to think out of the box, we came to the conclusion that this was the biggest issue of all:

Everyone has the same information.

Almost as a joke, we decided that solving this one would be enough to give EVERY one of our users an advantage that the rest of the world would be hard-pressed to find.

I recall when I wrote "UNIQUE PAST PERFORMANCES" on the board as a target, followed by the word "HOW?"

We stared at it for awhile. Laughed at how ridiculous it all sounded, and then, just as we were going to move on to other potential solutions, my wife, Beth, says, "Wait... Could you... ??" and the idea was born.

Pretty soon we were taking it seriously. After 2 or 3 more whiteboard sessions, I got a couple of other people involved by asking questions of people I respect in racing. Delta Lover was one of those people, although he might not have realized it at the time. I bounced a couple of ideas off him, which led to even more ideas.

Ultimately, my small team finalized the process which, in my opinion, solves ALL the major problems that handicappers face:


Proliferation of common information preventing the gain of an informational advantage without copious amounts of higher math.
Dependency on tiny, narrow (almost meaningless) samples of data (i.e. pacelines) to build studies from.
Too great a dependency upon the Final Odds (which do not truly exist for people wagering in the real world) to determine value.
Inability to build a reasonably accurate and testable probability for each horse without a stable of deep mathematicians supporting you (i.e. Whales).



Is this a TEASER? You bet it is! I am trying to tease my past customers into coming back.

There are several hundred of you out there who purchased HSH and are not currently using it. I want you to come back!

Be aware that if you have ever been a registered HSH user you will be entitled to upgrade to version 9 for a nominal upgrade fee. (Nominal is synonymous with SMALL; very small.) It does not matter how far back you were a user! Once a registered user, always entitled to come back.

Note: Current or recent active users will not face any upgrade fee.

Anyone who read this far probably wants more details. I am not willing to divulge much right now but I will tell you more when you are ready to come back as a customer.

I also suggest that you come back BEFORE HSH v9 is released because you are going to want several months of data to play with this effectively. (Obviously, when it comes to data, more is always better than less.)

If you are ready to come back now, the pre-release upgrade fee is only $59. After the official release it will be at least $89.

Just call the office to get the upgrade process started. 775.853.1234.

Please note: When you call, it is highly unlikely that you will be able to speak to me directly. Beth will be able to handle the questions pertinent to your return. Once you come back, you will be invited to our upcoming private workshops where you can learn more.

[MrBill]

Hi Dave;

I am one of the several hundred previous users of HSH and I'd thought I'd give you my perspective. I don't post much (lurk everyday though). I enjoyed using the software and had a lot of fun with it along with making some money. Interestingly, I probably had the most success with it using the SLT's (Sheet like Things) at smaller tracks like Remington.

The problem is I have a full time job and currently am living on my own, so I don't have a lot of free time during the week. I tend to be a weekend warrior when it comes to racing, since this is really the only time I have available to do it. I'm not sure how your software works these days, but I know I did a LOT of testing and trial and error using Pickmaster and some of the other tools in the software. I just don't have the time to do this. The data downloads are $129.00 per month which is a lot to overcome before I have even made a wager.

I'd like to see a business model/software developed for people like me (this includes other data driven software like HTR) - people who play part time. I have been betting for many years and get a real thrill out of the game. As it is, I probably wouldn't use software like HSH until I retire.

You provide great support for your software and I have no complaints in anyway. I wish you well with your newest endeavor.

MrBill

[Dave Schwartz]

Bill,

I absolutely hear what you are saying.

Ironically, what you describe is very common. That is, the intensity with which most HSH users test and run their software.

The primary goals of HSH are:

1) To provide a platform that is capable of winning using an automated (or semi-automated) approach.

2) To make the user's race day experience smooth and exhilarating.


The ironic part is that they way the software operates makes #2 absolutely easy to accomplish. I mean, imagine...

*Marks tracks and races you would be interested in playing by filtering
*sorts those races by post time so you don't miss anything
*grabs early scratches
*captures tote odds and new scratches
*allows you to build a betting system
*fires the betting system on demand
*builds a "standard" bet upload file for many ADWs
*captures your wagers for later study
(including the horses you didn't bet),
*grabs payoffs
*tracks how the bets have done (including your rebates)

The point is that PLAYING the races becomes an absolute pleasure.

Even more so considering that the prep time is typically zero. Of course you download the files (which can be done automatically on a schedule), and you must import the files (which can also be done automatically), but beyond that it is just go to the races.

When I play with a 9:30am post, I am in my studio at around 8:50 to make sure all the files are downloaded and imported already. At 9am I get my TVs going (RTN system) - (Link to Studio picture) (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1678399&postcount=27) - BTW, HSH tracks my satellite channels.

After that, it is non-stop PLAYING and WATCHING! What could be better?



But playing and winning are not the same thing.

The most difficult of these two goals is clearly #1: winning. About 20-25% of our users are winning players, and several win at a "professional level. That still leaves 75-80% of our users that are not winning players.

The great majority of our users are all about winning. If they are not convinced they are going to win, they will not play.

Why do they not win? Because horse racing is always an individual journey. I coach, I help... occasionally I even share a system that I have been winning with. I have never completely understood why one person uses a system successfully and another does not.

I have seen it for years. Even have a professional player who gave me his precise system. It worked for me to some degree - I was down around 2% before rebate - but I never saw the 4% profit (before rebate) that he got.


I am hoping that The Unique Past Performances will make it easier. It will certainly put the responsibility clearly in the hands of the user even more than it is now.

[thaskalos]

Most players have totally unrealistic expectations when they start to really apply themselves in this game. They think that, once they attain a certain skill level, their results will achieve a level of consistency which will spare them the frustration that the exasperating losing streaks inflict on "lesser" players. Yes...most players will readily acknowledge that losing streaks are an inescapable part of the game...but acknowledgement is not the same as "understanding". What the weekend warrior calls a "losing streak" is very different from the losings streaks that the everyday player is acutely acquainted with.

As the hobbyist gets more serious about the game, and he acquires more handicapping skills...he starts playing the game more often -- so he can put his newly-acquired skills to more profitable use. That's when he discovers that the game is much more turbulent than his hobbyist experience had led him to believe. He experiences highs and lows that he is not prepared for...and he soon loses confidence in himself and his "system". His expectations of what a "winner" should be is contradicted by first-hand experience...and he doesn't know what to do.

IMO, he should REJOICE...because he has just learned the most important lesson that this game has to teach. THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY IN THIS GAME...no matter WHAT your level of expertise might be. We are all in this together...and we ALL experience these dizzying highs and humiliating lows. And the bigger bettors get even more frustrated by them than the smaller bettors do.

The best "system" doesn't get the money; the best MINDSET does. Because, no matter how good your "system" is...inconsistency will be your constant companion at the track. And what will your "system" do about that?

[Rferguson]

Why one player wins...and the other 99 loses

[Dave Schwartz]

You guys make it sound like it is not about the quality of the handicapping as much as it is some touchy-feely, gritty thing.

While I agree that it takes a winner's mindset to win, a guy with a great mindset and less-than-stellar handicapping tools will not make that upper 1%.

[thaskalos]

You guys make it sound like it is not about the quality of the handicapping as much as it is some touchy-feely, gritty thing.

While I agree that it takes a winner's mindset to win, a guy with a great mindset and less-than-stellar handicapping tools will not make that upper 1%.

There doesn't seem to be a shortage of "stellar handicapping tools"; there are plenty of them all around...and most of them come highly recommended.

But the winning players are still few and far between...

There is a big difference between having stellar handicapping tools...and being a stellar player.

[Moto Pete]

Unless you meant it's speed and ease of use I don't think Bill's point was addressed. While I've never been a HSH subscriber I did use HTR for a few years. It's pricing is similar to HSH and like BIll I found myself too busy with life to devote much time to racing. I'm far from a $2 bettor but I'm not a heavy hitter either. The cost of the subscription versus the number of races played a month is a lot to overcome. Like Bill I dropped HTR and wish there was a program that was priced daily instead of monthly.

[Dave Schwartz]

Unless you meant it's speed and ease of use I don't think Bill's point was addressed. While I've never been a HSH subscriber I did use HTR for a few years. It's pricing is similar to HSH and like BIll I found myself too busy with life to devote much time to racing. I'm far from a $2 bettor but I'm not a heavy hitter either. The cost of the subscription versus the number of races played a month is a lot to overcome. Like Bill I dropped HTR and wish there was a program that was priced daily instead of monthly.

Moto,

Unless you meant it's speed and ease of use I don't think Bill's point was addressed.

I believe his point was "speed and ease of use."



...like Bill I found myself too busy with life to devote much time to racing.

Products such as HSH are not designed for the guy who wants to play the races once or twice per month. Guys such as yourself are simply not the target market for software that takes a serious development investment.


...wish there was a program that was priced daily instead of monthly.

The cost of producing such a program is just not going to permit it to be available to someone who is only going to generate a couple of dollars per month in revenue.

You know, I can precisely connect to where you are coming from, but for me it is a boat.

I live 35 minutes from Lake Tahoe, one of the most beautiful lakes in the world. I would love to go out on the lake 3 or 4 times per summer on a boat.

Considering the complete investment in the boat - the initial purchase price plus the upkeep - how can a 4-times-per-year boater justify his purchase? The answer is that I can't.

Instead, I can rent a boat at Tahoe for the day on those 4 times when I really have a hankering to get out on the lake. However, the cost per day is around $750 and I simply cannot justify that very often, either.

Unfortunately, I do not get to have the boating experience that I want without spending a substantial amount of money (something I choose not to do).

And that is the point: The occasional player simply cannot cost-effectively get access to the best software and data. That is simply how it works.

[traynor]

And that is the point: The occasional player simply cannot cost-effectively get access to the best software and data. That is simply how it works.

I think the major reason occasional players are occasional players is that they are losing (and limiting losses) or only winning trivial amounts. I think if the best software and data were consistently profitable, a LOT of those occasional bettors would decide it was far more cost-effective to wager seriously on a steady (if not full-time) basis than whatever else they are doing.

The problem seems more the lack of consistently profitable software and data than anything else. Cost-effective is directly related to profitability. If profit is there, the initial cost and ongoing cost are secondary. Simple cost-benefit analysis. Just like buying (or starting) any other kind of business.

Occasional (or "recreational") bettors are only so because they lack the skills or tools to consistently win significant profits.

[098poi]

Dave,
I am a current HSH user and look forward to any new upgrade you offer. I don't use it like most people and probably don't take advantage of all it offers now. I don't wager much anymore but I enjoy handicapping and playing in the contests here.

As far as a new approach I am sure there will be one of your always interesting instructional videos. The one thing I want you to focus on in this new one is to be as specific as possible about usage, configuration setup etc. Sometimes in your videos you get out the information you want but there may other fields or boxes and you offhandedly say don't worry about this or I use this value sometimes I check this or that and it confuses more than helps. Don't address what we don't need. Make a video, watch it or have a user watch it (I will for a nominal fee, ha, ha) and see if you are throwing in extra comments or addressing things that the user watching might get confused about. If it takes a script as opposed to and outline or guideline for the video so be it. (I don't know the process you use now but I know you work hard) I am not trying to be detrimental just offering an idea to assist in getting out your new product. Bob

[Moto Pete]

I'm not trying to be argumentative but I don't think we're connecting here. Typical message board dysfunction.

"The problem is I have a full time JOB and currently am living on my own, so I don't have a lot of free time during the week. I tend to be a weekend warrior when it comes to racing, since this is really the only time I have available to do it. I'm not sure how your software works these days, but I know I did a LOT of testing and trial and error using Pickmaster and some of the other tools in the software. I just don't have the time to do this. The data downloads are $129.00 per month which is a lot to overcome before I have even made a WAGER."

A weekend warrior is 8 days a month. And to be honest if someone plays 8 days a month he's not an occasional player. We're not pros, we do have a job and a family and we do devote significant time to the sport. When I read Bill's comment it struck a cord. We seem to have parallel handicapping lives. I subscribed to HTR for 3 years and downloaded every day and capped most. Maybe I got burned out, but I've also taken on some work that is taking it's toll on me. So for now I'm an occasional player but that might change.

I fully understand the economics of the pricing. It's just too bad for guys like me and Bill that we can't get the best data without paying more than is practical.

[Dave Schwartz]

Pete,

It is too bad. It is also too bad that I don't get my boat.

The economics just don't work for the vendor.

[Moto Pete]

I completely understand. Ken has said the same thing and I'm sure JCapper and RDSS would too. But as a former daily player who will get back to that level sometime in the near future, if there was something available to me now on a al a carte basis I'd buy it and the vendor would end up making out in the long run.

[Exotic1]

Pete,

It is too bad. It is also too bad that I don't get my boat.

The economics just don't work for the vendor.

Just to be clear, Can you or Can't you use your software for boat races?

[Dave Schwartz]

Sure, you CAN use it, but it probably won't do you much good.

Oh, wait... you mean real boats. As in, boats on the water.

[Exotic1]

Sure, you CAN use it, but it probably won't do you much good.

Oh, wait... you mean real boats. As in, boats on the water.

Well said.

[PhantomOnTour]

Sure, you CAN use it, but it probably won't do you much good.

Oh, wait... you mean real boats. As in, boats on the water.
Fire in the sky !
:lol:

[Ted Craven]

I completely understand. Ken has said the same thing and I'm sure JCapper and RDSS would too. But as a former daily player who will get back to that level sometime in the near future, if there was something available to me now on a al a carte basis I'd buy it and the vendor would end up making out in the long run.

Pete,

It would be most impertinent and bad form for me to comment about RDSS in Dave's Thread about his new HSH.

So I have made a few relevant comments in this other Thread: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1680614

Cheers,

Ted

[MrBill]

The alternative to software such as HSH or HTR are the pay as you use software types. I currently use RDSS which costs me $2.00 a card. I am a former Sartin software user, so the learning curve was not bad. I've tried other software in the past, but this is currently what works for me.

Dave, I fully understand that your software is not made for us weekend warrior types and that's fine with me as that is the business model you have chosen. Just some food for thought for you-How many of the hundreds of former users you are trying to get back fall into the weekend warrior category like me?

Mr Bill

[Dave Schwartz]

Bill,

Perhaps half of you fall into that category.

Just for the record, I wish the business model could work for you guys. I have wanted that for a long time.

In fact, I have wanted it so much that I have talked about building new stuff for a couple of years just for you.

This is the year I hope to bring that to fruition. I am not ready to discuss it much yet, but I have software in development - I am actually getting some 3rd party help on it because I just cannot do it all myself that will be designed especially for you guys.

This thread was pretty provocative in that it began with a premise - if I can pull it off - will set the industry on its head. Trust me when I say that if you think about the concepts mentioned it really is mind blowing.

Back on this new topic... the product I have designed for the Weekend Warrior types is not in the class of HSH. In fact, it is very different. Instead of a big, complex data-driven program, it is small and light, but very powerful.

Can't help it - here is another provocative statement: The highlight of this Weekend Warrior software is that it uses NO DATA!


By the way, I think you have helped me name it. I think Weekend Warrior is a great name.

Oh, did I mention it will be free? Well, it will be free to at least the first 1,000 users, anyway. We'll see more about that when the time comes.

FREE and NO DATA? How can that work? Trust me, it can.

Oh, and another thing: It is designed to run on tablets and even cellphones, as well as desktops and laptops! At least that is my hope. We are on a dual development path. (There will be a little more power on the tablet and desktop, in comparison to the phone version.)

And do not confuse it with these little phone app-things that are typically such a joke. No real power. This will have real handicapping power.


Anyone who spends the time to read this and think about it, will undoubtedly ask, "How the heck does NO DATA produce something powerful?" Well, you'll just have to scratch your head until the software arrives. I promise you will be pleasantly surprised.

[MrBill]

I'll be keeping an eye out for it....thanks for the followup.

Mr Bill

[RaceBookJoe]

Wow Dave, that sounds really cool.

[AndyC]

Pete,

It is too bad. It is also too bad that I don't get my boat.

The economics just don't work for the vendor.


I love the marketing. "And that is the point: The occasional player simply cannot cost-effectively get access to the best software and data. That is simply how it works."

Could it be that your market is the occasional player who believes that they would be on their way to professional play with just better software and data? What better way of enticing them than by declaring your product the forbidden fruit?

[whodoyoulike]

What I don't understand, is why Dave doesn't provide several examples i.e., 1 or 2 at a time. Not suggesting an entire card. And, he doesn't have to provide a detailed analysis. Just how his program suggests betting before a race. Ever go to a county fair or watch those TV info commercials, they demonstrate their products capabilities to entice people to purchase.

There are a lot of people here who want and/or are always searching for something to improve their game.

Of course, this could backfire big time. And, btw this is not a challenge after all we're in the handicapping software section. I'm surprised no one else has suggested this. Let me know if this is out of line.

[Speed Figure]

What I don't understand, is why Dave doesn't provide several examples i.e., 1 or 2 at a time. Not suggesting an entire card. And, he doesn't have to provide a detailed analysis. Just how his program suggests betting before a race. Ever go to a county fair or watch those TV info commercials, they demonstrate their products capabilities to entice people to purchase.

There are a lot of people here who want and/or are always searching for something to improve their game.

Of course, this could backfire big time. And, btw this is not a challenge after all we're in the handicapping software section. I'm surprised no one else has suggested this. Let me know if this is out of line.
I said this long ago, but was told we at HSH make our bets when horses are loading in the gate or something like that.

[whodoyoulike]

Speed Figure,

Thanks, I was unaware how his program functioned.

Fyi, Dave, I like your posts. I'm guessing there's probably only a 25 - 30% chance this demo would go well.

[Dave Schwartz]

What I don't understand, is why Dave doesn't provide several examples i.e., 1 or 2 at a time. Not suggesting an entire card. And, he doesn't have to provide a detailed analysis. Just how his program suggests betting before a race. Ever go to a county fair or watch those TV info commercials, they demonstrate their products capabilities to entice people to purchase.


I have done this at least 5 or 6 times every year where I have played live for 3 or 4 hours at a time. Last fall I played live with REAL money about 4 or 5 times in about a 10-day period.

A couple of times I had as many as 40 or 50 in the audience.

[whodoyoulike]

I have done this at least 5 or 6 times every year where I have played live for 3 or 4 hours at a time. Last fall I played live with REAL money about 4 or 5 times in about a 10-day period.

A couple of times I had as many as 40 or 50 in the audience.

Sorry, I never saw your posts. I've only started reading the posts on a regular basis since the middle of last year. Prior to that, it was a hit and miss. I'd sign on and I'd be looking at 50 pages with several hundred posts each time. I'd look at the first few and the last to thin out until the next sign on.

It just seemed a demo would be more productive. It would've been nice if you had participated in the "Let' handicap a race" thread which several of us periodically started over the last few months. Raybo participated a number of times and gained some street cred at least with me. And, again I was unfamiliar how your program functioned. But, I do feel you know what you are talking about in your posts whether horse racing or not.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thanks, WhoDo.

I actually hope to play a week or so at Saratoga live. Most certainly atleast a couple of days during during the Toga Party.