Exacta Wheel vs Win test

[Ray2000]

We have several testers posting at the same time,.... great, I'll jump in with one of my own.


A new "Fun Run" in this thread, playing Exacta Wheels with 2 "kickouts"
I'll be comparing Win bet return (same amount bet) to the $1 Part Wheel return.
Expecting to break even on win bets (before rebate) at about 30% Strike Rate
but this is a 'On paper only' run for me.

Theory is it's easier for the robot to kickout non contenders than it is to find contenders for the 2nd spot.

Thursday, 7/10

Hoosier R4.....#7 Fox Valley Griffin-3/1......7/All ... scr 10,8
Maywood R7.....#6 Yes We Did-9/2..............6/All ... scr 8,7
Maywood R9.....#8 Total Sin-3/1...............8/All ... scr 3,7
Mohawk R7......#6 Double Joy-7/1..............6/All ... scr 10,4
Northfield R4..#5 Hagitha-9/2.................5/All ... scr 6,8
Northfield R11.#2 Coupon Lady-7/2.............2/All ... scr 8,4
Chester R4.....#6 Pilatus-4/1.................6/All ... scr 2,1
Chester R8.....#8 Westward Hanover-5/2........8/All ... scr 1,7
Rideau R1......#4 Warrawee Prince-3/1.........4/All ... scr 1,6
Scioto R5......#5 Pow Chicka Pow Pow-10/1.....5/All ... scr 9,8
Scioto R11.....#5 Firetowers Stand-8/1........5/All ... scr 8,1
Saratoga R2....#4 Whitemountainkosmo-7/2......4/All ... scr 7,8
Saratoga R11...#5 Mayfield Hanover-3/1........5/All ... scr 8,6

75 $1 tickets if all start

[mrroyboy]

Ok so you are playing 1 exactas with the pick on top and throwing out 2 horses in the race. Correct?

[Ray2000]

Ok so you are playing 1 exactas with the pick on top and throwing out 2 horses in the race. Correct?

That's right, and there'll be some races where one of those kick-outs will sting me but that's the risk :)

[mrroyboy]

Looks good to me. Hope you do some at Big M tomorrow.

[Ray2000]

Scoring this run with $1 Part Wheel Exacta bets and comparing to putting the same amount on the nose.
Last night was exceptionally high on Win return and low on Exacta prices.
NFLD Hagitha paid $15 to Win, $37.60 Exacta, so 1$ ex wheel returns $18.80 while the same 6$ on win gets $45. :rolleyes:


7/10/14 To 7/10/14 ---- 13 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 74 125.75 51.75 1.70 6 46%
Wheel 74 74.75 0.75 1.01


Friday, July 11, 2014
mrroyboy, I have 3 for BigM today. complete disagreement with Giwner and Zoccali
and a special silly pick in R13 cause the bot knows how much you like Stacy and C-2 races :D


Grand River R7 #1 Dapple Apple-9/2............1/All ... scr 5,6
Hoosier R6.....#4 Mystic Karissa-7/2..........4/All ... scr 9,1
Maywood R1.....#5 Fox Valley Hotstuf-8/1......5/All ... scr 8,4
Maywood R7.....#4 Dont Worry B Happy-3/1......4/All ... scr 6,7
Maywood R9.....#5 Rev Me Up-4/1...............5/All ... scr 8,7

The BigM R7....#9 Social Scene-9/2............9/All ... scr 5,8
The BigM R12...#6 Lola De Vie-9/2.............6/All ... scr 1,8
The BigM R13...#10 Heza Trick N-20/1.........10/All ... scr 3,7.. Silly one, Scr 3 :confused: does have best TM Class&Speed

Pocono R11.....#5 Jacked Up-3/1...............5/All ... scr 7,8
Scioto R10.....#5 Sweetheart Dance-6/1........5/All ... scr 4,8
Scioto R12.....#2 Smokin American-5/1.........2/All ... scr 4,9
Scioto R13.....#5 C G Satin-4/1...............5/All ... scr 10,9
Saratoga R10...#4 Browner Shuttle-9/2.........4/All ... scr 7,8
Tioga R13......#6 Fiesta Camcun-7/2...........6/All ... scr 2,8

[mrroyboy]

Yes I do but mainly when she is driving Mighty Young Joe. Hezatrick from the 10 post might be a bit much to overcome.

[Ray2000]

Friday $82 bet, Win return $182,... Part wheel return $218

Got stung with "Jacked Up" at Pokie when my Kickout1 (the 7) fin 2nd ...Ex $173.60
but made up for it at Tioga "Fiesta" where collected on Ex $237.50 I wouldn't have hit without wheeling.


7/10/14 To 7/11/14 ---- 27 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 154 307.70 153.70 2.00 13 48%
Wheel 154 292.55 138.55 1.90

Saturday, July 12, 2014

I wasn't expecting this but Bot came back with 35 races today (206 tkts if all start). :rolleyes:
Hope it's an abnormality.

R. Aces R8.....#5 Umygeorgia Hanover-6/1......5/ - ... Scr 2,1
R. Aces R9.....#5 Country Jewel-3/1...........5/ - ... Scr 6,1
Balmoral R6....#9 Furious Frank-6/1...........9/ - ... Scr 3,7
Georgian R3....#1 Presquille-6/1..............1/ - ... Scr 3,7
Hoosier R1.....#5 Sammy'S Cool Win-4/1........5/ - ... Scr 4,7
Hoosier R4.....#5 Blueridge Doc-4/1...........5/ - ... Scr 10,9
Hoosier R6.....#5 Atomic Rei-15/1.............5/ - ... Scr 3,9
Hoosier R8.....#3 Sweet Talkin Satin-7/2......3/ - ... Scr 7,8
Hoosier R11....#4 Tyber Tyke-5/1..............4/ - ... Scr 5,1
Hoosier R13....#3 Royal Heart-10/1............3/ - ... Scr 9,1
Hoosier R14....#4 Singing Saint-3/1...........4/ - ... Scr 2,10
Mohawk R5......#5 Shadows Wonder-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 8,2
Mohawk R6......#9 Solid Queen-10/1............9/ - ... Scr 10,3
Mohawk R8......#6 Foolish Mind-5/1............6/ - ... Scr 4,5
Mohawk R9......#8 Steady Warrior-4/1..........8/ - ... Scr 1,4
Mohawk R11.....#1 Donau-8/1...................1/ - ... Scr 4,8
The BigM R3....#5 Allstar Partner-5/1.........5/ - ... Scr 9,4
The BigM R12...#6 Sunfire Blue Chip-4/1.......6/ - ... Scr 7,1
Pocono R3......#2 My Masterpiece-7/2..........2/ - ... Scr 9,7
Pocono R7......#2 Atta Boy Dan-7/2............2/ - ... Scr 7,9
Pocono R12.....#6 Giant Sculpture-4/1.........6/ - ... Scr 5,2
Plainridge R8..#5 Glow Stick-7/2..............5/ - ... Scr 7,6
Plainridge R9..#5 Bettor Angel-8/1............5/ - ... Scr 2,7
Scioto R1......#3 Carmens Best-4/1............3/ - ... Scr 8,9
Scioto R5......#5 Ilikeitrealhot-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 9,7
Scioto R7......#4 Ardyne Ace-5/1..............4/ - ... Scr 1,2
Scioto R9......#4 Thunder Cat-15/1............4/ - ... Scr 8,9
Scioto R11.....#5 Tobins Fortune-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 9,7
Saratoga R7....#1 Talking Blues-4/1...........1/ - ... Scr 7,2
Saratoga R8....#5 Bet On Roulette-3/1.........5/ - ... Scr 7,8
Tioga R4.......#4 Volcano Shano-9/2...........4/ - ... Scr 1,8
Tioga R5.......#1 B L Class Act-7/2...........1/ - ... Scr 6,5
Tioga R11......#3 Halfway Gone-6/1............3/ - ... Scr 6,1
Yonkers R1.....#2 Cee Pee Panic-3/1...........2/ - ... Scr 8,5
Yonkers R3.....#2 Hard To Mach-7/2............2/ - ... Scr 7,8

[mrroyboy]

Ray in the races you don't have picks like at Meadowlands does the bot still throw out 2 horses? I would be very interested to see those if possible. Thanks Ray

[Ray2000]

The way I have it programmed right now there's actually 2 Bots, one looking for longshots and the other for high strike rate picks. When they agree on Pick 1 and it's not the Morning Line fave, the race makes my playlist. Some races aren't analyzed at all, Maidens, large fields, coupled entries, not a mile.

Here's the longshot list

Race..Horse...Name.................Kickout
R3....#5....Allstar Partner-5/1.......9,4
R6....#7....Weeper-10/1..............10,6
R7....#4....Shebestingin-4/1..........3,2
R8....#8....Sunshine Beach-20/1.......4,1
R9....#10....Doo Wop Hanover-30/1.....7,1
R10....#7....Classic Martine-3/1......3,1
R12....#6....Sunfire Blue Chip-4/1....7,1

the high strike bot goes with
R3 SAME
R6...5
R7...1
R8...3
R9...9
R10..5
R12.SAME

Good Luck tonite

[mrroyboy]

Ok Thanks Ray

[Ray2000]

It wasn't a good night for either Bot at the Big Tracks M & MO :(

Saturday $202 bet, Win return $140,... Part wheel Exacta return $117
In 2 races, the kickout hurt me, ....Tioga R5 ..big hurt


7/10/14 To 7/12/14 ---- 62 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win $356 $448 $92 1.26 22 35%
Wheel $356 $410 $54 1.15

Sunday, July 13, 2014 65 tkts
R. Aces R7....#4 Van Donk-4/1................4/ - ... Scr 7,6
R. Aces R8....#5 Totally Excellent-7/1.......5/ - ... Scr 8,6
R. Aces R9....#2 Jebswesternshake-3/1........2/ - ... Scr 6,1
Balmoral R6...#9 Fox Valley Veto-4/1.........9/ - ... Scr 5,7
Pocono R3.....#1 Mortal Zin-7/2..............1/ - ... Scr 2,5
Pocono R10....#3 Maxi Bon-7/2................3/ - ... Scr 9,6
Pocono R12....#1 Don'T Ya Know-7/2...........1/ - ... Scr 6,8
Chester R2....#6 Sally Savannah-5/2..........6/ - ... Scr 8,7
Chester R4....#6 Mystical Walter-15/1........6/ - ... Scr 8,3
Chester R5....#3 St Lads Dude-6/1............3/ - ... Scr 2,1
Rideau R3.....#1 Pick N Scoop-3/1............1/ - ... Scr 7,6
Saratoga R5...#1 Two Step Turn-3/1...........1/ - ... Scr 2,7
Tioga R5......#6 Golden Gun-5/1..............6/ - ... Scr 3,5

[Sea Biscuit]

It wasn't a good night for either Bot at the Big Tracks M & MO :(



Ray: Do you ever get mad at the Bot/s and if yes how does it react?:D

[Ray2000]

.. :D

Yeah, it gets frustrating at times. The original bot was designed for longshot angles, like "tossing troubled lines (BNQ)", or "has an outside post but lone gate speed" or "sharp inside closer while predicting a barn-burner first half". That seemed to work for top pick but not for 2nd and 3rd picks. So bot #2 was put together using a logistic regression approach to identify horses with the best chance to "hit the board".

We joked around with some posts here about "marrying" the 2 robots and coming up with baby-bot. I never did write the new code for that baby, just run both programs and look at races where they agree on the Top Pick.

[HuggingTheRail]

I really enjoy following your posts - thanks for sharing as much as you do!!

[mrroyboy]

Can anybody put together software that is very good at eliminating non contenders?
That's what I was asking you about Ray.
See if I like horse 1 and your bot throws out 2 others I only have 7 horses to consider for exactas etc.
Saves a lot of time and money

[Ray2000]

Kick out 2 horses in the Exacta Wheel, ...that's what I'm trying with this run, roy.
I'm using the 2 most unlikely to hit the board (as rated by Bot 2) to reduce the cost of wheeling and comparing that return to betting the same number of dollars on the Win.

It depends on field size but if you were perfect in eliminating 2 horses, then the Exacta Wheel ROIs would shift up proportional to the cost savings, around 25%

[Ray2000]

thx HugginTheRail
maybe these posts can attract some new players to the game :)



Sunday, Balmoral R6 Veto scratch...
On $58 bet
If Win $30 back
If Wheel $59 back (made a buck :jump: )

7/10/14 To 7/13/14 ---- 75 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 414 475 61 1.15 25 33%
Wheel 414 469 55 1.13

Monday, July 14, 2014
Meadows R5.......#4 Miss Pinky Pie-4/1..........4/ - ... Scr 9,7
Meadows R7.......#1 Tremor Hanover-5/1..........1/ - ... Scr 9,10
Meadows R12......#4 Musical Prince-6/1..........4/ - ... Scr 5,9
Meadows R13......#5 Justin'S Money-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 8,9
Northfield R4....#1 Js Tango-7/2................1/ - ... Scr 4,2
Northfield R12...#7 U Bettor Watch Out-7/2......7/ - ... Scr 8,6
Northfield R13...#5 Mybrothergeorge-7/2.........5/ - ... Scr 8,4
Northfield R14...#1 Diamonds Revenge-4/1........1/ - ... Scr 2,8
Yonkers R1.......#2 Harnessnitencanada-5/2......2/ - ... Scr 8,6

[mrroyboy]

Exactly Ray Throwing out 2 horses in a race cuts the cost way down.

[Ray2000]

Yes, What I'm puzzling over right now is...

Is there a relationship between the robot's rating for Win chance (or Morning line? or odds at -2 MTP?) and the optimum number of horses to "kickout".

meaning:
Is it better to exclude more horses when your pick is the favorite or when it's a longshot or does it matter at all? :confused:




BTW
I'll correct the Exacta ROI tomorrow, there's a $25 ex hit I didn't get yesterday. Playing on paper doesn't give me a real time balance check with the ADW. I think I have the Bot automated now. Scratches are a b*tch.

Also, checking my database Bot #2 has a 90% success rate kicking out 2, (all Field sizes)...95% if kick out 1. Maybe I should lay horses..... :lol:

[mrroyboy]

Good Ray
This is important research.

[Ray2000]

Yesterday not good, 3 wins on 9 races ...For Example

Mea 5...$7 bet ....win back 14.70......ex back 8.90
Mea 7...$7 bet ....win back 18.20......ex back 20.30
NFL 4...$6 bet ....win back 10.20......ex back 7.20

typical on paybacks when fave wins, better to be in Win pool
here's some 5 year old data that supports "Don't Wheel Faves"
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=58866


7/10/14 To 7/14/14 ---- 84 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 468 518 50 1.11 28 33%
Wheel 468 486 18 1.04

Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Georgian R9......#3 Guiness Seelster-2/1........3/ - ... Scr 2,7
Meadows R6.......#1 Whoyoucallingafool-4/1......1/ - ... Scr 10,9
Meadows R14......#1 Classicality-8/1............1/ - ... Scr 8,2
Meadows R15......#3 Storm Warning-5/1...........3/ - ... Scr 1,8
Mohawk R11.......#3 Sword Ofthe Spirit-6/1......3/ - ... Scr 10,7
Northfield R4....#6 Captain Scruffy-7/2.........6/ - ... Scr 8,7
Northfield R5....#5 Alady For Sure-7/2..........5/ - ... Scr 3,8
Northfield R10...#3 American Pilot-7/2..........3/ - ... Scr 8,2
Northfield R12...#2 Anastasia Whinnie-7/2.......2/ - ... Scr 7,9
Northfield R13...#1 Navahoe-7/2.................1/ - ... Scr 6,8
Northfield R15...#5 Inglorious Mustard-4/1......5/ - ... Scr 8,7
Pocono R13.......#1 Little Bitty Lies-8/1......1/ - ... Scr 8,9
Scioto R1........#2 Hoosier Shooter-4/1.........2/ - ... Scr 8,6
Scioto R7........#5 Sweet She Rolls-5/1.........5/ - ... Scr 8,7
Scioto R9........#4 Wisher-4/1..................4/ - ... Scr 3,9
Yonkers R5.......#5 Toss Cartwright-5/2.........5/ - ... Scr 7,8

[HuggingTheRail]

I agree with the "don't wheel the fav".

I wonder how it would look if you dropped the fav > 2nd fav and fav > 3rd fav from the wheel - you would miss a lot of hits, but they would be small?? It may improve the ROI slightly?

[Ray2000]

I agree with the "don't wheel the fav".

I wonder how it would look if you dropped the fav > 2nd fav and fav > 3rd fav from the wheel - you would miss a lot of hits, but they would be small?? It may improve the ROI slightly?


That definitely needs looking into, particularly with 7 or 8 field size races.
Plus favorites are easier to spot than setting some arbitrary line to use as a minimum.

[Stillriledup]

Yesterday not good, 3 wins on 9 races ...For Example

Mea 5...$7 bet ....win back 14.70......ex back 8.90
Mea 7...$7 bet ....win back 18.20......ex back 20.30
NFL 4...$6 bet ....win back 10.20......ex back 7.20

typical on paybacks when fave wins, better to be in Win pool
here's some 5 year old data that supports "Don't Wheel Faves"
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=58866


7/10/14 To 7/14/14 ---- 84 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 468 518 50 1.11 28 33%
Wheel 468 486 18 1.04

Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Georgian R9......#3 Guiness Seelster-2/1........3/ - ... Scr 2,7
Meadows R6.......#1 Whoyoucallingafool-4/1......1/ - ... Scr 10,9
Meadows R14......#1 Classicality-8/1............1/ - ... Scr 8,2
Meadows R15......#3 Storm Warning-5/1...........3/ - ... Scr 1,8
Mohawk R11.......#3 Sword Ofthe Spirit-6/1......3/ - ... Scr 10,7
Northfield R4....#6 Captain Scruffy-7/2.........6/ - ... Scr 8,7
Northfield R5....#5 Alady For Sure-7/2..........5/ - ... Scr 3,8
Northfield R10...#3 American Pilot-7/2..........3/ - ... Scr 8,2
Northfield R12...#2 Anastasia Whinnie-7/2.......2/ - ... Scr 7,9
Northfield R13...#1 Navahoe-7/2.................1/ - ... Scr 6,8
Northfield R15...#5 Inglorious Mustard-4/1......5/ - ... Scr 8,7
Pocono R13.......#1 Little Bitty Lies-8/1......1/ - ... Scr 8,9
Scioto R1........#2 Hoosier Shooter-4/1.........2/ - ... Scr 8,6
Scioto R7........#5 Sweet She Rolls-5/1.........5/ - ... Scr 8,7
Scioto R9........#4 Wisher-4/1..................4/ - ... Scr 3,9
Yonkers R5.......#5 Toss Cartwright-5/2.........5/ - ... Scr 7,8

1 for 1 on your picks so far!

[Ray2000]

Stillriledup
Caught 6 but they weren't keepers. :D

Yesterday, 6 hits on 15 races, a scratch at Yonkers
Mohawk Win hit got stung when kickout1 took 2nd (Ex 3-10..$66.70 :p )
$92 bet, Win return $77,... Part wheel return $63


7/10/14 To 7/15/14 ---- 98 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 560 593 33 1.06 34 35%
Wheel 560 549 -11 0.98

Wednesday, July 16, 2014
R. Aces R6.......#4 Bushwood Z Tam-7/2..........4/ - ... Scr 3,7
Buffalo R6.......#5 Allamerican Major-7/2.......5/ - ... Scr 8,7
Grand River R4...#5 Northern Juno-5/2...........5/ - ... Scr 6,9
Grand River R7...#1 D Gs Woodstock-5/1..........1/ - ... Scr 8,7
Hoosier R2.......#4 Brookelynn Fancy-7/2........4/ - ... Scr 7,9
Hoosier R13......#5 Bc Honey-7/2................5/ - ... Scr 10,9
Meadows R6.......#4 Mcnice-12/1.................4/ - ... Scr 1,9
Meadows R15......#5 Pro Prospect-3/1............5/ - ... Scr 8,9
Northfield R2....#3 Hit By Lightning-3/1........3/ - ... Scr 6,9
Northfield R6....#1 Franco Natura N-4/1.........1/ - ... Scr 8,7
Northfield R10...#3 Royal Cam-Hall-7/2..........3/ - ... Scr 8,6
Northfield R14...#1 Inform-9/2..................1/ - ... Scr 8,9
Pocono R2........#4 Corona With Lime-6/1........4/ - ... Scr 1,6
Chester R3.......#2 Marion Mayflower-9/2........2/ - ... Scr 5,7
Chester R5.......#2 Wind Of The North-3/1.......2/ - ... Scr 1,7
Chester R8.......#6 Sky Mesa-7/1................6/ - ... Scr 9,8
Chester R13......#2 Screen The Call-7/2.........2/ - ... Scr 6,7
Plainridge R6....#4 Impulse Hall-7/2............4/ - ... Scr 7,8

[mrroyboy]

You are on the right track Ray. Eliminate the losers all you have left are the winners!!

[davew]

Instead of a straight wheel, have you considered proportional bets on the exacta?

ranked by probability or whatever your ranking is
something like 4,4,3,3,2,2,1,1


the reason I ask is your straight win bets are doing so much better (ROI wise) than your exactas - which makes me think you are getting some low priced exactas that might not break-even for the race when they hit - exacta wise

[Actor]

I tried this on paper using a 60 race sample. My selection method was a modified version of Quirin's route formula.

Betting a single selection to win produced a hit rate of 38% and an ROI of $1.97, just about break even. For you Mythbusters fans this was my "control".
Using the part wheel you suggest produced pretty much the same hit rate. Only twice did one of the throwouts manage to come in second. But the ROI was down to $1.93 . The problem is the average field was about 7 and the average bet was $8. The higher payouts of the exactas did not overcome that.
A $2 straight exacta (no wheel, no box) produced a hit rate of 15%. I expected that since 38% x 38% = 14.44%. But the ROI was $2.41 . :ThmbUp:

[Ray2000]

davew
I haven't looked at varying the stake based on ranking or tote odds but that makes sense.
A couple of years ago I posted some Exacta Wheel data based on chart odds. No 'capping involved like I'm doing here, just counting every race as a hit and comparing putting the money on the win vs the wheel.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=95223

Actor
Interesting point about Field Size. I'm using 7-10 here. After checking my complete base, the larger fields do much better on the Exacta ROI.


Having said that, yesterday was no good, 5 hits on 18 races, largest being $6.00 Win $29 Exacta
$101 bet, Win return $52,... Part wheel return $43

7/10/14 To 7/16/14 ---- 116 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 661 645 -16 0.98 39 34%
Wheel 661 591 -70 0.89

Thursday, July 17, 2014
Hoosier R2.......#6 My Hope-4/1.................6/ - ... Scr 2,1
Hoosier R14......#3 Sonnyforall-3/1.............3/ - ... Scr 7,1
Maywood R10......#4 Prosper-8/1.................4/ - ... Scr 5,7
Mohawk R5........#5 Home Turf-4/1...............5/ - ... Scr 2,7
Mohawk R6........#7 First Impression-7/2........7/ - ... Scr 4,6
Mohawk R7........#1 Canbec Kingkazimir-9/2......1/ - ... Scr 7,2
Northfield R1....#4 Crystal Brilliance-4/1......4/ - ... Scr 2,6
Northfield R2....#9 Upfront Harley-7/2..........9/ - ... Scr 6,8
Northfield R4....#4 Stonebridge Damsel-3/1......4/ - ... Scr 2,8
Northfield R8....#7 Mama Said-7/2...............7/ - ... Scr 8,6
Northfield R12...#1 Getherdone Sue-4/1..........1/ - ... Scr 7,6
Rideau R8........#1 Card Machine-4/1............1/ - ... Scr 8,6
Rideau R9........#2 Annie P V-9/1...............2/ - ... Scr 7,5
Yonkers R3.......#1 Springhouse Star-3/1........1/ - ... Scr 6,5
Yonkers R8.......#2 Everymileamemory-4/1........2/ - ... Scr 8,7
Yonkers R12......#2 Sadies Place-4/1............2/ - ... Scr 7,8

[Stillriledup]

Go RAY! You're hittin some winners!! Lets keep rolling!

[Ray2000]

thx Stillriledup, the run ended up going 7 for 16 (44%)
Profit on Win and/or Part Wheel yesterday but Win bets are still doing better.
...Virtual profit doesn't spend as easy as real profit :D

$88 bet, Win return $118,... Part wheel return $98

7/10/14 To 7/17/14 ---- 132 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 749 763 14 1.02 46 35%
Wheel 749 689 -60 0.92

Friday, July 18, 2014
Grand River R6...#1 Striking Patrick-5/2........1/ - ... Scr 8,2
Grand River R11..#1 Chewey-8/1..................1/ - ... Scr 8,6
Hoosier R13......#5 Endeavors Dot Com-3/1.......5/ - ... Scr 7,9
Hoosier R14......#4 Tiene'S Leche-7/2...........4/ - ... Scr 8,3
The BigM R8......#2 Upfront Billy-5/2...........2/ - ... Scr 1,3
Mohawk R2........#6 Poppies Pride-7/1...........6/ - ... Scr 10,3
Chester R13......#5 Bo Tox Hanover-9/2..........5/ - ... Scr 8,2
Scioto R4........#4 So Jazzy-6/1................4/ - ... Scr 8,9
Scioto R8........#5 Fusion Man-4/1..............5/ - ... Scr 8,2
Scioto R9........#1 Best Impressions-4/1........1/ - ... Scr 9,8
Saratoga R5......#1 Through The Night-3/1.......1/ - ... Scr 5,8
Saratoga R12.....#4 Gotabgoodtoblucky-3/1.......4/ - ... Scr 2,6
Yonkers R7.......#1 Ima Que T-7/2...............1/ - ... Scr 7,8

[Stillriledup]

Great Job yesterday, crushing beat at Yonkers in the 12th i think it was, looming up the pocket and the leader came back to win by a nose, that was a 3-1 shot too.

Congrats, lets keep rolling!

[willphorse]

I really like your Mohawk R2 Key. Poppies Pride can easily win with a good trip!

[Ray2000]

OK guys

Lets get'm tonight Will...

[Stillriledup]

I really like your Mohawk R2 Key. Poppies Pride can easily win with a good trip!

GOOD TRIP. WINNER. GREAT CALL.

Great stuff Ray and Will, POPPIESPRIDEWITHTHEPERFECTPOCKETTRIP! :jump:

[Ray2000]

Yesterday, good start poor finish....So Jazzy Scratched
$74 bet, Win return $53,... Part wheel return $29
(8 for 13 on Place bets, +$, one of those days :bang: )


7/10/14 To 7/18/14 ---- 145 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 823 818 -5 0.99 49 34%
Wheel 823 718 -105 0.87

Saturday, July 19, 2014
Buffalo R8.......#1 Auditorial-7/2..............1/ - ... Scr 8,7
Mohawk R6........#7 Lucan Hanover-7/2...........7/ - ... Scr 4,8
Mohawk R10.......#2 Sudoku-3/1..................2/ - ... Scr 10,9
Mohawk R13.......#5 Jackson Brady-4/1...........5/ - ... Scr 7,10
The BigM R4......#4 Johnny Z-3/1................4/ - ... Scr 7,5
Pocono R9........#4 Guns An Roses-3/1...........4/ - ... Scr 9,6
Pocono R11.......#4 Delco Liar-7/2..............4/ - ... Scr 1,7
Plainridge R5....#4 Superstar Dream-7/2.........4/ - ... Scr 7,2
Plainridge R6....#4 Artistic Rhythym-5/1........4/ - ... Scr 3,7
Scioto R8........#6 Bursting Blaze-6/1..........6/ - ... Scr 9,10
Scioto R9........#4 Camart Hanover-10/1.........4/ - ... Scr 8,9
Vernon R10.......#5 Disco Dragon-3/1............5/ - ... Scr 9,3

[Ray2000]

The new TM data file download page has me screwed up when a track throws in an extra day
Meadows R10......#4 Modern Gesture-10/1.........4/ - ... Scr 2,8

Others I like at The Meadows 6:55 Post
50 Cent Pic 5 (11-12-13-14-15)

R11 4 Stucklikeglue-9/2........Matt Kakaley best TM numbers
R12 5 Do Your Job-5/2.........Scott Zeron drives
R13 5 Hep-6/1....................Longshot try
R14 5 Pulsating-8/1.............Butler Fair Winner (Baby Race)
R15 1 Great Gwen-3/1.........Tyler Stillings - Richard Stillings ... box exacta

Pic5...475 | 5 | 58 | 54 | 18 ......$12

Good Luck All

[Stillriledup]

Yesterday, good start poor finish....So Jazzy Scratched
$74 bet, Win return $53,... Part wheel return $29
(8 for 13 on Place bets, +$, one of those days :bang: )


7/10/14 To 7/18/14 ---- 145 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 823 818 -5 0.99 49 34%
Wheel 823 718 -105 0.87

Saturday, July 19, 2014
Buffalo R8.......#1 Auditorial-7/2..............1/ - ... Scr 8,7
Mohawk R6........#7 Lucan Hanover-7/2...........7/ - ... Scr 4,8
Mohawk R10.......#2 Sudoku-3/1..................2/ - ... Scr 10,9
Mohawk R13.......#5 Jackson Brady-4/1...........5/ - ... Scr 7,10
The BigM R4......#4 Johnny Z-3/1................4/ - ... Scr 7,5
Pocono R9........#4 Guns An Roses-3/1...........4/ - ... Scr 9,6
Pocono R11.......#4 Delco Liar-7/2..............4/ - ... Scr 1,7
Plainridge R5....#4 Superstar Dream-7/2.........4/ - ... Scr 7,2
Plainridge R6....#4 Artistic Rhythym-5/1........4/ - ... Scr 3,7
Scioto R8........#6 Bursting Blaze-6/1..........6/ - ... Scr 9,10
Scioto R9........#4 Camart Hanover-10/1.........4/ - ... Scr 8,9
Vernon R10.......#5 Disco Dragon-3/1............5/ - ... Scr 9,3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1tj2zJ2Wvg :jump: :jump: :jump:

[Stillriledup]

Tough beat on your Vernon horse, he got ruined by the front runner and was much the best he would have won easy if that incident didnt happen.

And of course, your lone M1 pick finished 2nd with Campbell who basically won every other race except for you.

[Ray2000]

SRU
That youtube vid woke me up but I dozed off again :sleeping: and didn't get to watch the best 2 hits
Modern Gesture $19.80 (which almost got overlooked :rolleyes: ) and Jackson Brady $11.60
Those win hits put the win return way ahead of the part wheel, in fact
...the wheel has only beat the win 15 times in 158 races. (in 5 races the kickout ruined the exacta)

Last night...$75 bet, Win return $118,... Part wheel return $63
only at Buffalo did the exacta beat the win.

7/10/14 To 7/19/14 ---- 158 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 898 936 38 1.04 53 34%
Wheel 898 782 -116 0.87

Sunday, July 20, 2014
Balmoral R6......#5 Park Lane Crystal-9/2.......5/ - ... Scr 6,8
Chester R13......#4 Moveoutofmyway-5/1..........4/ - ... Scr 1,8
Plainridge R2....#7 Jezal Theory A-6/1..........7/ - ... Scr 5,6
Plainridge R5....#7 Camityourinmyway-7/2........7/ - ... Scr 8,4
Rideau R10.......#5 Imjustalittleguy-3/1........5/ - ... Scr 3,9
Tioga R4.........#1 Joe De Fino-6/1.............1/ - ... Scr 5,8

[Ray2000]

Sunday $32 bet, Win return $52,... Part wheel return $30
$9 Winners at Chester & Rideau but WinPrice/ExPrice ratios were 3.3 and 3.1
I need this ratio to be above number of horses used on bottom (ave 6)
This only occurs with odds-on winners or freak races.

This comparison test run is going nowhere (Part Wheel sucks) but I'll continue for awhile.


7/10/14 To 7/20/14 ---- 164 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 930 987 57 1.06 55 34%
Wheel 930 812 -118 0.87

Monday, July 21, 2014
Meadows R6.......#5 Angelic Star-6/1............5/ - ... Scr 6,9
Meadows R12......#4 Destiny'S Desire-5/1........4/ - ... Scr 7,9
Meadows R13......#5 Jesse'S Story-12/1..........5/ - ... Scr 9,8
Northfield R1....#5 Lightninginthesky-9/2.......5/ - ... Scr 2,6
Northfield R4....#4 Irish Elitist-12/1..........4/ - ... Scr 8,2
Northfield R11...#4 Wind Surfer-3/1.............4/ - ... Scr 8,9
Northfield R15...#5 On Eagles Wings-9/2.........5/ - ... Scr 2,4
Yonkers R2.......#5 Spaced Out-7/2..............5/ - ... Scr 4,6
Yonkers R10......#4 Sentimental Lady-3/1........4/ - ... Scr 6,7

[Ray2000]

Angelic Star-6/1........................placed beat by 6/1
Destiny'S Desire-5/1...................placed beat by 22/1
Jesse'S Story-12/1.....................placed beat by 9/1
Lightninginthesky-9/2..................out
Irish Elitist-12/1........................won but at even money and Kickout 1 took 2nd at 25/1.. Ex 175
Spaced Out-7/2.........................spaced way out
...some days it just doesn't pay to get out of bed... :D

[Ray2000]

Monday no funday...9 races, 2 won, 5 placed
On $51 bet, Win return $19,... Part wheel return $4

7/10/14 To 7/21/14 ---- 173 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 981 1006 25 1.03 57 33%
Wheel 981 816 -165 0.83

Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Georgian R10.....#1 Tail R Swift-4/1............1/ - ... Scr 6,9
Meadows R6.......#4 Too Salty-3/1...............4/ - ... Scr 9,6
Meadows R9.......#4 Fine Art Mindale-7/2........4/ - ... Scr 8,3
Meadows R12......#5 Major Athens-8/1............5/ - ... Scr 8,3
Mohawk R5........#8 P L Hercules-5/1............8/ - ... Scr 5,9
Monticello R10...#3 Machs Little Filly-3/1......3/ - ... Scr 5,8
...yesterday Card handle : $389,509 on 13 races Win pool typical 4-5k, Ex pool 7-10k
Northfield R3....#1 Ferriswheel Junkie-6/1......1/ - ... Scr 3,6
Northfield R13...#5 Inglorious Mustard-7/2......5/ - ... Scr 8,2
Northfield R14...#6 Zoomin Jesse-5/1............6/ - ... Scr 8,7
Pocono R9........#3 Cash On Delivery-4/1........3/ - ... Scr 2,7
Scioto R2........#5 Zorgwijk Hollander-4/1......5/ - ... Scr 6,9
Saratoga R4......#5 Twin B Bikini-3/1...........5/ - ... Scr 7,6

[Ray2000]

Tuesday..On $69 bet, Win return $71,... Part wheel return $99
Part Wheel beats Win betting due to a couple of $70 hits at Mohawk and Scioto

7/10/14 To 7/22/14 ---- 185 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1050 1077 27 1.03 61 33%
Wheel 1050 915 -135 0.87

Wednesday, July 23, 2014 .... 22 Races
R. Aces R5.......#4 Johnny Walker-4/1...........4/ - ... Scr 7,9
R. Aces R8.......#1 Cowboy Hanover-7/2..........1/ - ... Scr 9,7
Balmoral R8......#2 Wilfullyscooteneva-6/1......2/ - ... Scr 8,7
Batavia R10......#1 Onehitwonder-4/1............1/ - ... Scr 6,8
Batavia R11......#5 Accourtingly-8/1............5/ - ... Scr 8,6
Grand River R5...#2 Blue Chip Sunshine-5/2......2/ - ... Scr 7,5
Grand River R9...#1 Northern Juno-7/2...........1/ - ... Scr 8,7
Hoosier R4.......#4 Tighten Up-3/1..............4/ - ... Scr 1,3
Hoosier R5.......#4 Photo Time-7/2..............4/ - ... Scr 6,5
Northfield R1....#7 September Hall-4/1..........7/ - ... Scr 6,9
Northfield R9....#6 Rockin H Cheery O-7/2.......6/ - ... Scr 4,8
Northfield R11...#5 Hagitha-4/1.................5/ - ... Scr 8,9
Northfield R13...#2 Roman Rocks-9/2.............2/ - ... Scr 7,9
Northfield R14...#1 Can'T Slay Me-7/2...........1/ - ... Scr 7,6
Chester R6.......#3 Ohoka Texas N-2/1...........3/ - ... Scr 7,8
Chester R14......#4 West Matters-5/2............4/ - ... Scr 8,7
Plainridge R2....#4 Jet Flow-7/2................4/ - ... Scr 6,7
Plainridge R4....#5 Wishful Desire-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 7,6
Scioto R1........#3 Ms Toni Nigito-5/1..........3/ - ... Scr 7,9
Scioto R4........#4 Non Pareil-4/1..............4/ - ... Scr 7,9
Scioto R6........#4 Independent Spirit-6/1......4/ - ... Scr 9,7
Saratoga R6......#2 Katie Done Did It-9/2.......2/ - ... Scr 5,7

[Tall One]

Good job..:ThmbUp:


Glad you've kept the thread going, Ray. Lots of good info in here.

[Ray2000]

thx Tall One

This paper run is surprising me a bit also particularly on Place bet return.

I haven't been posting those numbers but after a few days of "Placitis" :)
I checked and it's actually a positive $2
Too early to say but 54% strike on a break-even return with a good rebate ADW is intriguing.
Too bad the pools are so small.



7/10/14 To 7/22/14 ---- 185 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Place $1,050 $1,052 $2 1.00 100 54%
Wheel $1,050 $915 ($135) 0.87

[mrroyboy]

Wow is that all tracks? That good.

[Ray2000]

Almost all tracks, roy
Not using Scarborough or Ocean or a few "B" tracks in Canada.

Wednesday.....A taste of reality sets in..terrible day,
On $129 bet, Win return $45,... Part wheel return $33
Still have "Place-itis" :) (Place bets returning $92)


7/10/14 To 7/23/14 ---- 207 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1179 1122 -57 0.95 65 31%
Wheel 1179 947 -232 0.80

Thursday, July 24, 2014
Harrington R2....#1 Getitoffyourchest-3/1.......1/ - ... Scr 4,7
Harrington R10...#1 Cashco-4/1..................1/ - ... Scr 4,7
Hoosier R7.......#5 Monmouth-10/1...............5/ - ... Scr 9,8
Hoosier R9.......#6 Time Will Tell All-4/1......6/ - ... Scr 9,7
Hoosier R14......#4 First Class G-7/2...........4/ - ... Scr 1,9
Maywood R1.......#1 Kendyl-5/2..................1/ - ... Scr 7,8
Maywood R9.......#5 Odds On Serpens-3/1.........5/ - ... Scr 3,8
Mohawk R4........#3 Get Around Town-6/1.........3/ - ... Scr 6,7
Monticello R8....#1 Northern Nandi-7/2..........1/ - ... Scr 8,2
Monticello R9....#1 Halsey Hanover-7/2..........1/ - ... Scr 8,2
Northfield R6....#1 Braggin Hanover-7/2.........1/ - ... Scr 8,3
Northfield R7....#1 Lima Adore-4/1..............1/ - ... Scr 6,5
Chester R14......#5 Dontmeswiththebest-7/2......5/ - ... Scr 8,3
Scioto R6........#4 Kf Shark-8/1................4/ - ... Scr 9,7
Scioto R9........#5 Cyclops-5/1.................5/ - ... Scr 9,8
Scioto R13.......#2 Chip Of Art-5/1.............2/ - ... Scr 9,8
Saratoga R4......#6 Hot Type-12/1...............6/ - ... Scr 8,7
Saratoga R7......#5 Pan Of Outsiders-4/1........5/ - ... Scr 4,8
Yonkers R3.......#2 Big Time Rocks-5/2..........2/ - ... Scr 8,6

[Ray2000]

Yesterday, In a bad streak... :p
On $107 bet, Win return $88,... Part wheel return $60

7/10/14 To 7/24/14 ---- 226 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1286 1210 -76 0.94 70 31%
Wheel 1286 1007 -279 0.78

Friday, July 25, 2014
Batavia R9.......#4 Muscle Max-4/1..............4/ - ... Scr 7,8
Grand River R8...#4 Little Whiskey Gal-5/1......4/ - ... Scr 1,2
Grand River R10..#4 Luigi-5/1...................4/ - ... Scr 8,7
Hoosier R1.......#5 Beauty'S Life-7/2...........5/ - ... Scr 8,1
Hoosier R7.......#5 American Girl-7/2...........5/ - ... Scr 8,6
Hoosier R8.......#5 Jolenes Pinehonker-7/2......5/ - ... Scr 9,8
Maywood R8.......#1 Mortal Combat-3/1...........1/ - ... Scr 8,6
Maywood R10......#2 Poco Granny-3/1.............2/ - ... Scr 8,7
Meadows R6.......#5 Perfect Change-5/1..........5/ - ... Scr 9,1
Meadows R13......#5 Whatagamble-6/1.............5/ - ... Scr 9,1
The BigM R5......#5 Lorrie Please-7/2...........5/ - ... Scr 8,2
The BigM R7......#7 Hot List-8/1................7/ - ... Scr 4,6
Pocono R12.......#4 Northern Companion-3/1......4/ - ... Scr 7,8
Chester R1.......#4 Babe'S Bistro-6/1...........4/ - ... Scr 7,3
Scioto R9........#1 Delta Dawn Hanover-5/1......1/ - ... Scr 9,7
Saratoga R10.....#4 Panamanian Hanover-3/1......4/ - ... Scr 1,6
Tioga R8.........#5 Whirlwind-3/1...............5/ - ... Scr 2,7
Vernon R3........#5 Twice Too Nice-5/1..........5/ - ... Scr 4,3
Yonkers R10......#4 Here Comes Numbers-7/2......4/ - ... Scr 8,7

[mrroyboy]

I like Hot List too in the 7th. My value play of the night.

[Ray2000]

Yesterday, Whatagamble scratched, 6 small winners but a push on Win return.
On $103 bet, Win return $101,... Part wheel return $62

7/10/14 To 7/25/14 ---- 245 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1389 1310 -79 0.94 76 31%
Wheel 1389 1070 -319 0.77

Saturday, July 26, 2014
Batavia R2.......#3 Thirtyeightspecial-4/1......Leave out 8,7
Batavia R5.......#1 Ponyta Boy-10/1.............Leave out 7,8
Batavia R11......#4 Dont Stop Mach-7/2..........Leave out 8,6
Batavia R12......#1 Maradona-4/1................Leave out 8,7
Hoosier R2.......#5 Meant Tobe Shooter-7/2......Leave out 7,1
Hoosier R7.......#4 Its A Go-4/1................Leave out 2,3
The BigM R12.....#5 Iam Bonasera-9/2............Leave out 8,3
Northfield R7....#1 C'Mon Mr Brock-7/2..........Leave out 5,9
Pocono R9........#1 Winbak Prince-4/1...........Leave out 8,9
Plainridge R7....#1 Briefly-4/1.................Leave out 7,6
Scioto R2........#5 Medoland Jate-5/1...........Leave out 2,4
Scioto R5.......#10 Tobins Fortune-4/1..........Leave out 8,9
Scioto R8........#2 Carmens Best-4/1............Leave out 8,9
Scioto R9........#5 Newbegining-4/1.............Leave out 7,9
Saratoga R3......#4 Clooney Drummond-4/1........Leave out 7,6
Saratoga R5......#4 Mr Coolie-6/1...............Leave out 8,7
Saratoga R8......#5 Tarpon Hanover-3/1..........Leave out 7,6
Saratoga R12.....#6 Majorly Bad-4/1.............Leave out 2,8

[mrroyboy]

Bonasera is also on Pandy' watch list.

[Ray2000]

Favorite, Bonasera disappoints in a 26.1 55.0 (28.4) 1:22.3 (27.3) 1:49.0 (26.2) closing effort.


Yesterday, 5 small winners. Slump continues.
On $101 bet, Win return $70,... Part wheel return $42
Falling ROI on Win bets now close to red lining (after rebate ;) )

7/10/14 To 7/26/14 ---- 263 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1490 1380 -110 0.93 81 31%
Wheel 1490 1112 -378 0.75

Sunday, July 27, 2014
Balmoral R5......#1 L A Camcharger-8/1..........Leave out 8,7
Balmoral R10.....#2 Park Lane Crystal-4/1.......Leave out 9,8
Georgian R1......#6 Normstrikesfame-5/2.........Leave out 5,7
Chester R1.......#4 Quick Thrill-7/2............Leave out 1,2
Chester R13......#6 The Ladies Man-3/1..........Leave out 8,1
Chester R14......#5 Three Swings-9/1............Leave out 2,8
Plainridge R3....#5 Yanother Round-4/1..........Leave out 8,2
Plainridge R5....#1 Electric Mayhem-4/1.........Leave out 7,8
Plainridge R8....#1 Artistic Flight-5/1.........Leave out 6,9
Rideau R8........#5 Histoire Eternelle-7/1......Leave out 3,6
Rideau R10.......#2 Brother John-3/1............Leave out 8,6
Tioga R5.........#4 Neptune-9/2.................Leave out 8,3

[imofe]

Ray,

I am right with you on L A Camcharger in Balmoral's 5th. Good luck!

[HuggingTheRail]

How much did you guys bet on L A Camcharger??? ;)

[Ray2000]

HugginTheRail
Power outage at my place yesterday so I didn't bet anything after 5:00pm
Probably wouldn't have bet Camcharger at even money anyway...who knows:)
Ex Wheels are paper bets only.

I'm seriously considering not even buying programs for 1/2 mile tracks.... :p
That would leave me 3 races today... Meadows and Mohawk

ROIs falling like a rock...

7/10/14 To 7/27/14 ---- 275 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1553 1403 -150 0.90 83 30%
Wheel 1553 1129 -424 0.73

Monday, July 28, 2014
Grand River R5...#6 Go Daddy Go-3/1.............Leave out 3,8
Meadows R5.......#5 Hs Open Waters-8/1..........Leave out 8,9
Mohawk R1........#6 Carousel Hall-7/1...........Leave out 4,10
Mohawk R4........#5 Rock N Roll Legacy-10/1.....Leave out 7,8
Monticello R3....#5 Allemande Hanover-9/5.......Leave out 8,6
Monticello R10...#1 Moon Lake-3/1...............Leave out 8,7
Northfield R2....#1 Dr Jacks Shack-4/1..........Leave out 9,8
Northfield R5....#3 Western Churchill-7/2.......Leave out 8,6
Northfield R6....#9 Annie'S Rocketman-7/2.......Leave out 7,6
Northfield R7....#4 Skull Of Roses-4/1..........Leave out 5,8
Northfield R9....#2 Bestinthebusiness-6/1.......Leave out 8,7
Northfield R11...#5 Zorgwijk Heavenly-9/2.......Leave out 2,8
Northfield R12...#1 Beans And Weenies-5/1.......Leave out 6,8
Yonkers R1.......#2 Rockrockwhosthere-2/1.......Leave out 8,6
Yonkers R3.......#2 Feelin Cornered-3/1.........Leave out 4,8

[Ray2000]

Screwy run, :confused: I'll keep posting because it's one of the rare sequences where
the Place bet is out performing the Win. Ex Part Wheeling is finished.

7/10/14 To 7/28/14 ---- 290 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1636 1443 -193 0.88 86 30%
Place 1636 1521 -115 0.93 149 51%
Wheel 1636 1145 -491 0.70

Tuesday, July 29, 2014 ....Flat $5 Win / Place
Hoosier R4.......#4 Indian Hero-8/1
Meadows R9.......#5 Talon Hanover-3/1
Northfield R4....#4 Playmaker-8/1
Northfield R9....#4 Uplaythegametowin-9/2
Northfield R13...#3 Brighton Bay One-5/1
Northfield R14...#7 Special Purpose-4/1
Scioto R1........#5 Hot Cycle-5/1
Scioto R6........#1 Wisher-5/1
Scioto R8........#5 Doctor Gates-5/1
Scioto R10.......#2 Rosalie'S Smile-4/1
Saratoga R7......#5 Bill Onthehill A-4/1
Saratoga R10.....#8 Whosurbanker-3/1

[LottaKash]

Screwy run, :confused: I'll keep posting because it's one of the rare sequences where
the Place bet is out performing the Win. Ex Part Wheeling is finished.


Ray, out of curiosity, how well would your picks do, "if boxing only with the favorite in exactas "....?

I ask this, because I researched this a bit and I didn't realize how much power my Angle-Picks had when combining them solely with the FAVE in a box...I was surprised at the prices, and the ROI, by using this paradigm alone...

Your numbers suggest that you may do well using that way of betting the X... I sure would like to see if that is true with you as well..

[Ray2000]

Johnny


This is embarrassing for me :blush: but I can't quite answer that. I made the decision in March to stop collecting the USTA charts (during the time they're free) and if need be, go ahead and buy the USA 2014 charts from TrackMaster at the end of the year. Canadian charts are free and can be auto-downloaded but the USA charts are a pain to get. TM wants 85¢ a card or $3,000 for all tracks for 1 year so I need a good year to cover that. :rolleyes:

Without the charts I can't know who the fave was but judging by my collect prices... I seem to be picking them with incredible accuracy. :D

I'll check some prior year data and see how the Exacta box .. Robot1-2/Fave is doing.

[LottaKash]

Johnny


This is embarrassing for me :blush: but I can't quite answer that. I made the decision in March to stop collecting the USTA charts (during the time they're free) and if need be, go ahead and buy the USA 2014 charts from TrackMaster at the end of the year. Canadian charts are free and can be auto-downloaded but the USA charts are a pain to get. TM wants 85¢ a card or $3,000 for all tracks for 1 year so I need a good year to cover that. :rolleyes:

Without the charts I can't know who the fave was but judging by my collect prices... I seem to be picking them with incredible accuracy. :D

I'll check some prior year data and see how the Exacta box .. Robot1-2/Fave is doing.

Ray, I suspect that when you refer to the charts that you stopped downloading, that you mean the "comma-delimited" version of them...Yes ?..

Anyway, with the win/place hits that you are currently experiencing, I can imagine that if your picks were not the fave, that your strike and ROI rate would be similar to my own, boxing with just the Fave.....Which btw, still surprises me sometimes...

[Ray2000]

....that you mean the "comma-delimited" version of them...Yes ?..



No, (I wish they were available in a delimited format...it would be much easier) but If you load the .aspx web server format file into a browser then you can select/copy all the lines and paste into a spreadsheet, then use VBA macro to parse out the lines (data) you want.

Similiarly at standardbredcanada.ca but the file is more of a "dat" or txt file and the file names lend themselves to easier macro processing.

First bet today (MEA) Bot Pick Talon Hanover 3/1 is now the 2/1 favorite @0MTP, ML pick Dandee Chip Chip 5/2 is 5/1..
Can I pick faves or what:)

[Ray2000]

Yesterday's results not good, getting beat by SuperLongs... NFLD R9 Exacta $1082 :eek: , STGA R7 Exacta $466 :eek:
2$ returns on 12 Races, 3 Won (16.40), 4 Placed (16.60)....Place bets by a nose:)
20 day Summary now showing Flat $5 Betting Win and Place


7/10/14 To 7/29/14 ---- 302 Races 2 Scratches
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1500 1302 -198 0.87 89 30%
Place 1500 1373 -128 0.92 153 51%

Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Batavia R6.......#1 The Prophet Mary-3/1
Grand River R7...#5 Decroft Havaball-5/2
Hoosier R7.......#5 Northern Nicole-4/1
Northfield R7....#1 Julie'S Davinchie-7/2
Northfield R13...#2 Jp Orazio-4/1
Pocono R1........#7 Four Starz Speed-4/1
Chester R10......#2 Transcending-3/1
Scioto R6........#2 Always Caroline-4/1
Scioto R9........#5 Tom'S Torpedo-5/1

[Ray2000]

2$ returns on 9 Races, 1 Won (6.40), 2 Placed (6.80)

Paper run is not returning enough paper... :D


7/10/14 To 7/30/14 ---- 310 Races 2 Scratches
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1540 1318 -222 0.86 90 29%
Place 1540 1390 -151 0.90 155 50%

Thursday, July 31, 2014
Hoosier R5.......#6 Er Monica-7/2
Maywood R10......#2 Prosper-8/1
Maywood R11......#3 Four Hour Nap-3/1
Monticello R1....#4 Blowout-3/1
Monticello R6....#3 Trades In Motion-5/2
Monticello R7....#3 Rd Donethat-5/2
Monticello R9....#1 Mighty Cullen N-4/1
Northfield R8....#2 Jojo In The Sky-7/2
Northfield R9....#2 Texas Ridge-3/1
Northfield R10...#8 Onemorelastchance-12/1
Chester R1.......#4 Drunken Terror-6/1
Chester R3.......#5 Gadsden Hanover-5/2
Scioto R8........#6 Rosetta Star-4/1
Scioto R11.......#6 Feel N Funk E-4/1
Saratoga R10.....#6 Iced Out-3/1

[mrroyboy]

Ray like I said considering you make picks in advance without the scratches, weather etc those results are excellent.
That hit rate for place has exacta implications.
Keep up the good work.

[Ray2000]

Thx roy, but this will end this paper trial. Purpose was to use a "not-Morning Line" pick and compare Win to Exacta Part Wheeling.
The Exactas were too small, Lost a couple of big ones on "Kickouts"

Corrected an error on number of wins. THe Racing Channel had no results for Batavia 7/30
Yesterday, $2 returns on 14 Races, 1 scr at NFLD, 6 Won (22.10), 7 Placed (19.80)


7/10/14 To 7/31/14 ---- 326 Races 3 Scratches
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 1615 1384 -231 0.86 96 30%
Place 1615 1446 -169 0.90 162 50%

Friday, August 01, 2014
Batavia R10......#3 Little Haus-3/1
Grand River R6...#1 Riverwalk-5/2
Grand River R7...#3 Heres The Magic-5/2
Grand River R8...#5 Jayport Sunrise-9/2
Grand River R9...#1 Nics Regal Lass-7/2
Hoosier R2.......#4 Longwell-4/1
Hoosier R6.......#5 Solvent-4/1
Hoosier R13......#5 American Girl-6/1
Maywood R4.......#2 Special Joe-5/2
Maywood R5.......#5 Driven By Destiny-7/2
Maywood R9.......#5 Crankin' It Up-5/2
Maywood R11......#1 Dont Worry B Happy-3/1
Mohawk R1........#6 I Like My Kaddy-6/1
Mohawk R11.......#5 Shes Dangerous-3/1
Northfield R1....#4 Devoutly Hanover-7/2
Northfield R11...#5 Delta Dawn Hanover-3/1
Northfield R12...#5 R Es Mary-7/2
Pocono R2........#5 Crimson Cruiser-7/2
Pocono R5........#6 Perfect Picture-7/2
Pocono R6........#1 Shady Breeze-4/1
Chester R7.......#5 Llc Delight-7/2
Chester R12......#5 Order By Road-4/1
Scioto R13.......#3 Holiday Shopper-4/1
Saratoga R7......#7 Amigo Ranger-9/2
Yonkers R1.......#1 Pictonian Pride-7/2