PhantomOnTour
07-10-2014, 12:43 AM
I think the :2: Box Office is a pace standout and serious wire to wire threat.
4-1 ML and I will go as low as 3-1 for a play, but there are question marks:
> barn not winning much at the meet, but have sent out many live runners based on the number of minor awards
> he is a ground loser in the lane lately, settling for minor awards
> his last two wins were vs Clm foes
> his last race looks good from a figure standpoint, but it was the only dirt route on the card at Mth on 31May, and my numbers have this race way out of line with the six sprints....I have an asterisk next to this race's figure. He has some back races with fast pace figs too, so his last may be legit.
Still, he looks no worse than 2nd in my book, and Rosario getting aboard doesn't hurt my confidence. In lighter than all other contenders at 120lbs.
:5: Scarly Charly went from a MSW sprint win at SA to the Gr1 Met Mile at Bel following a brief break...whoa...and he ran okay. But here's another speed fig dilemma....did he just suck along while never a threat and record his lifetime best figure?...or is he really good? 8-5 ML odds and a jock who's lost his bug since he last rode him are reasons to consider going against this guy.
:3: Bernardo is another who puzzles a figure guy like me. He runs huge figures at Aqu, but wins more at Bel. By my numbers, his best Aqu fig towers over his best Bel fig. Has some races that say he can contend, but NY bred hasn't beaten open company in numerous tries. Not sure where I am going with this guy, but ML of 7-2 is too low for me.
:4: Roman Approval would look a heck of a lot better if he didn't have Tonito M to contend with in Puerto Rico...ran 2nd to him five times.
His rival has run okay in a few efforts here on the mainland, but I am against RA in this race. No better explanation other than I think he's too slow for the best in here. Faces older foes for the first time.
:1: Sinistra is another good NY bred whom I think is winless vs open company (maiden win not showing in pp's). Figs are on the fringes of the best, but he retains top jock Castellano. One or two back races can contend, but he looks more like and underneath type than the winner...3-20 lifetime with six 2nds.
As of now it's Box Office over all of the above except Roman Approval, and Scarly Charly over my choice (check the workout) as he might be really good.
Win bet also, but no go on anything at less than 3-1.
Good luck...fascinating race for a figure nerd like me.
4-1 ML and I will go as low as 3-1 for a play, but there are question marks:
> barn not winning much at the meet, but have sent out many live runners based on the number of minor awards
> he is a ground loser in the lane lately, settling for minor awards
> his last two wins were vs Clm foes
> his last race looks good from a figure standpoint, but it was the only dirt route on the card at Mth on 31May, and my numbers have this race way out of line with the six sprints....I have an asterisk next to this race's figure. He has some back races with fast pace figs too, so his last may be legit.
Still, he looks no worse than 2nd in my book, and Rosario getting aboard doesn't hurt my confidence. In lighter than all other contenders at 120lbs.
:5: Scarly Charly went from a MSW sprint win at SA to the Gr1 Met Mile at Bel following a brief break...whoa...and he ran okay. But here's another speed fig dilemma....did he just suck along while never a threat and record his lifetime best figure?...or is he really good? 8-5 ML odds and a jock who's lost his bug since he last rode him are reasons to consider going against this guy.
:3: Bernardo is another who puzzles a figure guy like me. He runs huge figures at Aqu, but wins more at Bel. By my numbers, his best Aqu fig towers over his best Bel fig. Has some races that say he can contend, but NY bred hasn't beaten open company in numerous tries. Not sure where I am going with this guy, but ML of 7-2 is too low for me.
:4: Roman Approval would look a heck of a lot better if he didn't have Tonito M to contend with in Puerto Rico...ran 2nd to him five times.
His rival has run okay in a few efforts here on the mainland, but I am against RA in this race. No better explanation other than I think he's too slow for the best in here. Faces older foes for the first time.
:1: Sinistra is another good NY bred whom I think is winless vs open company (maiden win not showing in pp's). Figs are on the fringes of the best, but he retains top jock Castellano. One or two back races can contend, but he looks more like and underneath type than the winner...3-20 lifetime with six 2nds.
As of now it's Box Office over all of the above except Roman Approval, and Scarly Charly over my choice (check the workout) as he might be really good.
Win bet also, but no go on anything at less than 3-1.
Good luck...fascinating race for a figure nerd like me.